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Decision making & cynefin framework

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A description of decision models and explanation of Cynefin Framework.

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Decision making & cynefin framework

  1. 1. Decision Making Iqtidar ul Hassan
  2. 2. Definition • A systematic process of choosing from several alternatives to achieve a desired result.
  3. 3. Various Models of Decision Making • The Rational Model • The Model of Bounded Rationality • Incrementalist View • The Organizational Procedure View • The Political View • The Garbage Can Model • The Individual Differences Perspective
  4. 4. • Naturalistic Decision Making • The Multiple Perspective Approach
  5. 5. Definition • “Multiple Perspectives Approach to Decision Making” is an attempt to sweep in all possible perspectives on a problem. It classifies perspectives as either technical, organizational or individual in nature. Apart from them ethical and aesthetic perspectives are also kept in mind. The proponents of this theory are Harold A. Linston and Ian Mitroff.
  6. 6. • “Multiple Perspectives Approach to Decision Making” is based on Churchman’s concept of System Thinking.
  7. 7. system approach • Analysis versus Synthesis
  8. 8. Analysis • Analysis is to reduce it into manageable “bites” and address them in isolation. • the whole is equal to the sum of its parts.
  9. 9. Synthesis • an integrated perspective about the whole enterprise. • The parts interact with each other in a way that whole is larger than the sum of its parts.
  10. 10. • before synthesizing one must first analyze, to take the system apart in order to understand each component separately, and then integrating them into a larger whole.
  11. 11. Scenario • A Higher Secondary School principal wants to ensure the attendance of the students which is less than thirty percent the whole academic year for five years. The principal has in front of him the history of such an attempt which ended up in the forced resignation of the previous principal, after an agitation by the students and the involvement of the community.
  12. 12. The Cynefin Framework
  13. 13. The Cynefin Framwork • Literal translation is ‘habitat or place’ • Place of multiple belonging; cultural, religious, geographic, tribal etc. • Dave J. Snowden
  14. 14. • A sense making model, not a categorization mode • Categorization: framework precedes the data • Sense making: data precede the framework. Patterns of framework emerge from data.
  15. 15. Simple Contexts • The domain of best practices • The realm of Known Knowns • Clear cause and effect relationship, easily determined by everyone • leaders sense, categorize, and respond. • Domain of best practices
  16. 16. Complicated Context • The domain of experts • Known Unknowns • The leader must sense, analyze and respond • Domain of good practices
  17. 17. Complex Context • The domain of emergence • The realm of Unknown Unknowns • Cause and effect obvious only in the hindsight • probe first, then sense, and then respond.
  18. 18. Chaotic Context • The Domain of Rapid Response • The realm of Unknowable • Leader must first act to establish order, then sense where stability is present and from where it is absent, and then respond by working to transform the situation from chaos to complexity
  19. 19. Disorder • The context is not yet determined