long term conditions in Hertfordshire presentation final
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This workshop on long term conditions worked to identify third sector roles and contributions
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Plus de Professor Jim McManus AFBPsS,FFPH,CSci, FRSB, CPsychol
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long term conditions in Hertfordshire presentation final
- 1. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently Third Sector Public Health Workshop …Long Term Conditions
- 2. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently Workshop Outline • Deprivation and disability free life expectancy • Projections for long term conditions • Long term conditions by age group • HIV Prevalence • Depression • Dementia • Diabetes estimates and projections • Other long term conditions • What can third sector agencies do?
- 3. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently High impact third sector roles • Integration between health and social care • Home from hospital • Community interventions • Self management • Resilience and coping
- 4. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently Deprivation
- 5. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently Disability Free Life expectancy and Deprivation Life expectancy and disability free life expectancy in Hertfordshire 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 0.05.010.015.020.025.030.0 Deprivation Index of Multiple Deprivation (higher number = high deprivation) Age Life expectancy Disability free life expectancy Sources: EMPHO/LHO, 2006-10; ONS 1999-2003; DCLG, 2010
- 6. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently Long term conditions by age group Long Term Health Problem or Disability by Health by Age 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 to 15 16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over Age PercentageofPopulation(%) Hertfordshire: Bad or very bad health Hertfordshire: Day- to-day activities limited a lot England: Bad or very bad health England: Day-to- day activities limited a lot
- 7. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently Long-term conditions 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 2012 2016 2020 2012 2016 2020 2012 2016 2020 2012 2016 2020 2012 2016 2020 2012 2016 2020 2012 2016 2020 2012 2016 2020 2012 2016 2020 2012 2016 2020 N Herts. E Herts. Brox. Wel Hat. Stev. Dac. St Alb. H.mere Three R. W.ford East & North Herts CCG Herts Valleys CCG #OfPeople Long-Term Conditions Projections
- 8. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently People aged 15-59 diagnosed with HIV HIV Diagnoses in people aged 15-59 948 112 165 138 97 68 95 8177 47 68 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 England Hertfordshire Watford Stevenage Welwyn Hatfield Hertsmere Broxbourne Dacorum North Hertfordshire St Albans Three Rivers East Hertfordshire Rateper1,000 Source: Health Protection Agency (HPA) Numbers represent the number of people accessing HIV treatment
- 9. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently Late HIV Diagnoses Late HIV Diagnoses* in Hertfordshire 107 13 15 19 11 12 7 5 16 5 <5 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008/10 2009/11 2010/12 2008/10 2009/11 2010/12 2008/10 2009/11 2010/12 2008/10 2009/11 2010/12 2008/10 2009/11 2010/12 2008/10 2009/11 2010/12 2008/10 2009/11 2010/12 2008/10 2009/11 2010/12 2008/10 2009/11 2010/12 2008/10 2009/11 2010/12 2008/10 2009/11 2010/12 2008/10 2009/11 2010/12 England Hertfordshire Three Rivers Dacorum Watford St Albans Stevenage Broxbourne Hertsmere Welwyn Hatfield East Herts North Herts PercentageofallHIVdiagnoses Source: Survey Of Prevalent HIV Infections Diagnosed (SOPHID), HIV and AIDS New Diagnoses Database (HANDD), and CD4 Surveillance - analysed by the Health Protection Agency *Adults (aged 15 years or more) w ho have been diagnosed w ith HIV and have a CD4 count of less than 350 cells per mm3 w ithin 91 days of HIV diagnosis. Numbers respresent the numbers of people affected in the three year period betw een 2010 and 2012
- 10. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently Depression prevalence in Hertfordshire Prevalence of depression diagnosis, all ages, in Hertfordshire 101884 109492 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 England Hertfordshire Percentage Source: HSCIC Compendium of Population Health Indicators (Quality and Outcomes Framew ork, QMAS database) Numbers indicate how many people are affected
- 11. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently Dementia prevalence in Hertfordshire Dementia prevalence in Hertfordshire, all ages 5319 5566 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 England Hertfordshire Percentage Source: HSCIC Compendium of Population Health Indicators (Quality and Outcomes Framew ork, QMAS database) Numbers indicate how many people are affected
- 12. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently Dementia 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Numberofpeople Year People aged 65 and over predicted to have dementia, by age, projected to 2020, Hertfordshire 90+ 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 Source: www.poppi.org.uk
- 13. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently Estimated diabetes prevalence in Hertfordshire adults Estimated total (diagnosed and undiagnosed) diabetes prevalence in adults (16+) 6.9% 6.6% 7.3% 7.8% 8.3% 7.3% 7.6% 8.2% 8.6% 8.8% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 Hertfordshire England Source: Public Health England, Diabetes prevalence model for local authorities
- 14. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently Estimated prevalence of long term conditions Hertfordshire in 2011 • COPD – 2.74% of people in Hertfordshire, approximately 30700 people • CHD – 4.69% of people in Hertfordshire, approximately 52500 people • Stroke – 2.19% of people in Hertfordshire, approximately 24500 people. • Cancer – approximately 5000 new incidences of all cancers per year.
- 15. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently High impact third sector roles • Integration between health and social care • Home from hospital • Community interventions • Self management • Resilience and coping
- 16. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently Further information • http://jsna.hertslis.org- Health and Wellbeing in Hertfordshire • www.hertlis.org- Local Information System • www.pansi.org.uk - Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information • www.poppi.org.uk - Projecting Older People Population Information System
- 17. www.hertsdirect.org Think Intelligence, Think Intelligently Where to from here? What can 3rd sector do? What can we do together? What can PH do, What can CCGs, HCS?