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The Application of the Soil Water Assessment
     Tool (“SWAT”) in Easter Nile River Basin




                               Jorge Escurra
                               October, 2011


                           Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
                                             LOGO
ENPM seeks to encourage use of public-
 domain modeling tools especially using
 available public-domain global and local
 datasets
Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
 is a popular tool for water modeling –
 especially water balance assessments



                                            LOGO
                           Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
Models and Databases
 “Models are feed by databases”




                                             LOGO
                             Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
Solving a Problem
Disaster happened : DC - Irene
Hurricane (2011)

                                                             Webpage           Models




  GPS               - Pictures/Photos
  Or                - Coordinates Lat and Long
  Cell phones       - Physical characteristics such as,,,,
                    - “Unique code”                                          Database

                                     “Update” –
                                     autonomous way
                                                                              LOGO
                                                             Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
SWAT
Soil water Assessment Tool is a long term
 continuous watershed simulation model.
It was developed by Jeff Arnold for the USDA
 Agriculture Research Service (ARS) in 1998.
SWAT was developed to predict the impact of
 land management practices on
 water, sediment, climate change, and agriculture
 chemicals yields.
Daily time steps.
Physically based (hydrology, plant
 growth, nutrients, pesticides and land
 management)
                                                LOGO
                               Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
SWAT




       LOGO
LOGO
Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
How to Use SWAT
SWAT model allows users to:
• Use a GIS interface.
• Consider the topographical characteristics.
• Use Hydrological Response Units.
• Download and use open source code.
• Access SWAT2009.mdb
SWAT model uses the following equations
  (SWAT Manual and J Schuol, 2005):



                                                 LOGO
                                Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
SWAT Process - Bolivia

                                                                                                         INPUT




   Digital Elevation Model   Basin delineation     Climate data       Soil types           Land use


    Kc
                                                 SWAT
                                                                               Infrastructure dams and irrigation schemes
Crop calendar and agriculture practices



                                                                                                         OUTPUT



         Precipitation   Evapotranspiration   Sediments     Water yield            Soil water moisture


                                                                                            LOGO
                                                                           Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
Model accuracy
Divide available time series…
 Flow (m 3/s)




                Set up   Calibration      Validation



                                                        LOGO
                                       Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
Validation/Calibration
      indicators




                                          LOGO
                         Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
Beni Basin




                Indicador      Valor       Calificación
                 RRSME         0.48         muy bueno
                   NSE         0.54        Satisfactorio
                   R2           0.6
                  PBIAS         1.5        muy bueno




             Indicador      Valor       Calificación
              RRSME         0.44        muy bueno
                NSE         0.65          bueno
                R2          0.82LOGO
               PBIAS         28        insatisfactorio
Ganges: Basic Model
     Results




                                           LOGO
                 Emerging Talent Water Series, 2011
Climate Change




                                  LOGO
                 Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
LOGO
Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
LOGO
Runoff will change… but in which direction?

                            Mid-Century Monthly Flow Scenarios at Farakka                                                                               Flo Rate in Farakka - Ganges Basin
                                                                                                                             100000
                   90,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1969
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1970
                   80,000                                                                                                    90000                                                                             1971
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1972
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1973
                   70,000                                                                                                    80000                                                                             1974
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1975
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1976
                   60,000                                                                                                                                                                                      1977
                                                                                                                             70000
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1978
Flow rate (m3/s)




                                                                                                                                                                                                               1979
                   50,000                                                                                                                                                                                      1980
                                                                                                                             60000                                                                             1981
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1982




                                                                                                           Flow rate (cms)
                   40,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1983
                                                                                                                             50000                                                                             1984
                   30,000                                                                                                                                                                                      1985
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1986
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1987
                                                                                                                             40000                                                                             1988
                   20,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1989
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1990
                   10,000                                                                                                    30000                                                                             1991
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1992
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1993
                       0                                                                                                                                                                                       1994
                                                                                                                             20000
                            Jan   Feb   Mar    Apr   May   Jun     Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec                                                                                                           1995
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1996
      BCM - 2050                        UKMO - 2050              CMA - 2050            IPSL - 2050                                                                                                             1997
                                                                                                                             10000                                                                             1998
      CNRM - 2050                       CSIRO_MK3 - 2050         GFDL_CM2_0 - 2050     GFDL_CM2_1 - 2050
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1999
      GISS - 2050                       INMCM3 - 2050            MIROC3 - 2050         MIUB_ECHO - 2050
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2000
      MPI_ECHAM - 2050                  MRI_CGCM2 - 2050         NCAR_CCSM3 - 2050     NCAR_PSM1 - 2050
                                                                                                                                 0                                                                             2001
      Baseline (1969 - 2001)                                                                                                                                                                                   Baseline
                                                                                                                                      Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep    Oct   Nov   Dec




                                Model                                                                                                                     Historical data
                                                                                                                                                                     1970-2000
                            predictions 2050

                                                                                                                                                                   LOGO
                                                                                                                                                  Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
Hydropower Sensitivity to Climate Change Models (2050 A2 Scenarios)
                                                     Tamur-1
                               Lower Arun          100%                  Sun Kosi-2


                    Arun III                                                          Andhi Khola
                                                   50%


        Sapt kosi                                                                                Kali Gandaki-1
                                                    0%
                                                                                                                           %HP Change BCM
                                                                                                                           %HP Change CMA
Kulekhani-1                                        -50%                                                Kali Gandaki-2      %HP Change GFDL_CM2
                                                                                                                           %HP Change GISS
                                                                                                                           %HP Change MIU_ECHO
                                               -100%
                                                                                                                           %HP Change CSIRO
   Kamala                                                                                               Seti-1 (Central)
                                                                                                                           %HP Change CNRM
                                                                                                                           %HP Change UKMO
                                                                                                                           %HP Change MIROC
  Pancheswor                                                                                        Marsyandi              %HP Change NCARPM1




         Seti-6 (West)                                                                      Burhi Gandaki



                         Karnali-1B                                             Sapta Gandaki

                                       Chisapani               Trisuli


                                                                                                                 LOGO
                                                                                                Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
What we can do in
 the Nile Basin?




Land use    Weather          Soil Types

                                       LOGO
                      Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
LOGO
Emerging Talent Water Series, 2011

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Presentation in ENTRO - Eastern Nile hydrological Work

  • 1. The Application of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (“SWAT”) in Easter Nile River Basin Jorge Escurra October, 2011 Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011 LOGO
  • 2. ENPM seeks to encourage use of public- domain modeling tools especially using available public-domain global and local datasets Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a popular tool for water modeling – especially water balance assessments LOGO Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
  • 3. Models and Databases  “Models are feed by databases” LOGO Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
  • 4. Solving a Problem Disaster happened : DC - Irene Hurricane (2011) Webpage Models GPS - Pictures/Photos Or - Coordinates Lat and Long Cell phones - Physical characteristics such as,,,, - “Unique code” Database “Update” – autonomous way LOGO Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
  • 5. SWAT Soil water Assessment Tool is a long term continuous watershed simulation model. It was developed by Jeff Arnold for the USDA Agriculture Research Service (ARS) in 1998. SWAT was developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, climate change, and agriculture chemicals yields. Daily time steps. Physically based (hydrology, plant growth, nutrients, pesticides and land management) LOGO Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
  • 6. SWAT LOGO
  • 8. How to Use SWAT SWAT model allows users to: • Use a GIS interface. • Consider the topographical characteristics. • Use Hydrological Response Units. • Download and use open source code. • Access SWAT2009.mdb SWAT model uses the following equations (SWAT Manual and J Schuol, 2005): LOGO Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
  • 9. SWAT Process - Bolivia INPUT Digital Elevation Model Basin delineation Climate data Soil types Land use Kc SWAT Infrastructure dams and irrigation schemes Crop calendar and agriculture practices OUTPUT Precipitation Evapotranspiration Sediments Water yield Soil water moisture LOGO Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
  • 10. Model accuracy Divide available time series… Flow (m 3/s) Set up Calibration Validation LOGO Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
  • 11. Validation/Calibration indicators LOGO Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
  • 12. Beni Basin Indicador Valor Calificación RRSME 0.48 muy bueno NSE 0.54 Satisfactorio R2 0.6 PBIAS 1.5 muy bueno Indicador Valor Calificación RRSME 0.44 muy bueno NSE 0.65 bueno R2 0.82LOGO PBIAS 28 insatisfactorio
  • 13. Ganges: Basic Model Results LOGO Emerging Talent Water Series, 2011
  • 14. Climate Change LOGO Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
  • 16. LOGO
  • 17. Runoff will change… but in which direction? Mid-Century Monthly Flow Scenarios at Farakka Flo Rate in Farakka - Ganges Basin 100000 90,000 1969 1970 80,000 90000 1971 1972 1973 70,000 80000 1974 1975 1976 60,000 1977 70000 1978 Flow rate (m3/s) 1979 50,000 1980 60000 1981 1982 Flow rate (cms) 40,000 1983 50000 1984 30,000 1985 1986 1987 40000 1988 20,000 1989 1990 10,000 30000 1991 1992 1993 0 1994 20000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1995 1996 BCM - 2050 UKMO - 2050 CMA - 2050 IPSL - 2050 1997 10000 1998 CNRM - 2050 CSIRO_MK3 - 2050 GFDL_CM2_0 - 2050 GFDL_CM2_1 - 2050 1999 GISS - 2050 INMCM3 - 2050 MIROC3 - 2050 MIUB_ECHO - 2050 2000 MPI_ECHAM - 2050 MRI_CGCM2 - 2050 NCAR_CCSM3 - 2050 NCAR_PSM1 - 2050 0 2001 Baseline (1969 - 2001) Baseline Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Model Historical data 1970-2000 predictions 2050 LOGO Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
  • 18. Hydropower Sensitivity to Climate Change Models (2050 A2 Scenarios) Tamur-1 Lower Arun 100% Sun Kosi-2 Arun III Andhi Khola 50% Sapt kosi Kali Gandaki-1 0% %HP Change BCM %HP Change CMA Kulekhani-1 -50% Kali Gandaki-2 %HP Change GFDL_CM2 %HP Change GISS %HP Change MIU_ECHO -100% %HP Change CSIRO Kamala Seti-1 (Central) %HP Change CNRM %HP Change UKMO %HP Change MIROC Pancheswor Marsyandi %HP Change NCARPM1 Seti-6 (West) Burhi Gandaki Karnali-1B Sapta Gandaki Chisapani Trisuli LOGO Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
  • 19. What we can do in the Nile Basin? Land use Weather Soil Types LOGO Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011