Real estate & construction professionals in india by 2020
1. RICS Research
Real Estate and Construction
Professionals in India by 2020
Sachin Sandhir
Managing Director, RICS South Asia
2. 1 Introduction to RICS and the built environment
2 Key findings of RICS Research
3 A look at professionals working in this sector
4 Career Opportunities
4. What does the RICS do?
Specialized Institutionalizing Policy advice on
Qualifying skilled
education professional regulation and
professionals
courses standards other reforms
Leading the Institutionalization Bringing in
debate on major of international international
industry issues best practices technical expertise
5. What do we mean by “Built Environment”
Collective group of land, property and construction
In other words, real estate, construction and infrastructure put together
6. RICS and built environment specializations
Building Building Quantity Surveying Minerals and
Geomatics Environment
Surveying Control Construction Waste
Planning and Arts and Dispute
Rural Machinery
Development Antiques Resolution
Facilities Management
Commercial Residential Valuation
Management Consultancy
7. Indian real estate & construction sector is riddled with many
issues but ‘lack of adequate professional skills’ has remained
under estimated as a serious problem
Regulatory &
legal hurdles
No regulation or Lack of market data
consumer redress & transparency
Workforce Unorganized
shortage market
Land values
& acquisition
8. RICS commissioned a research to understand what is the likely
demand-supply situation of professional skills in India
• How many professionals are employed in this sector currently?
• What is the potential demand for real estate in India in the coming years?
• What is the trickle-down impact in terms of number of professionals required per
unit area of developed real estate space?
• What kind of productivity enhancement will professionals achieve every year?
• What is the total estimated demand for professionals over the next decade?
• What kind of professionals and skill-sets are required?
• What is the current and estimated future supply of these select disciplines in India?
• What is the estimated demand-supply gap for professionals from these select
disciplines for the period 2010- 2020?
• In case a demand-supply gap exists, what are the potential remedial measures that
may need to be taken to address this gap?
9. Key findings of RICS Research
- Real Estate & Construction
Professionals by 2020
10. Growth of built environment
Since 2001, the built environment has
contributed nearly 17.5% to the country’s GDP
• On an average, real estate contributes 8% while construction contributes 9.5%
• Both real estate (19.5% CAGR) and construction (CAGR 18.3%) have
witnessed tremendous growth since 2001
• In 2011, built environment
contribution was ~USD235
billion (17.4% of GDP)
• US, Australian and Japanese
built environment have
contributed ~15% to 18% of
the overall GDP on an
average
• Observing international as
well as historic trends, the
future contribution of the
sector is likely to stabilize
between 17% – 18% of the
country’s total output
11. Population growth in India
By 2020, India’s population is estimated to increase to
1.38 billion, with 500 million (36%) of urban population
This increase in population is
estimated to generate
unprecedented demand for
quality real estate and
infrastructure
The shift to cities and urban
agglomerations implies
potential demand for quality
real estate and extensive
supporting infrastructure
services in urban areas. 123 million
~123 million of additional
urban population is likely to
require professional assistance
for construction of houses
12. Working population
97 million jobs will be added in next 10 years as nearly
42% of the population is expected to work across
service and industrial sectors
In 2020, the workforce participation
rate will increase to 42%, with 585
million working population –
implying net increase of 97 million
By 2020, 27% of the total workforce
(42%) is likely to be employed in the
services sector – which is expected 242
265
585
488
to grow at 2% CAGR – implying an
addition of almost 36 million jobs
over a span of one decade
106
79 156
Another 27% of total workforce is 120
likely to be employed in industrial 53 86 101 156
sector – expected to grow at 4% 1993-94 2005-06 2009-10 2020-21
CAGR - with an anticipated addition Industrial Sector Services Sector Primary Sector
of almost 51 million jobs
13. Potential demand for real estate space
India may therefore need to potentially build an
average of 8.7 billion of real estate space every year –
adding up to a whopping 95 billion over 2010-20
Annual incremental demand estimated across sectors - 2011
An estimated annual
requirement in the range
of 7.3 billion sq. ft (2011)
to 10.15 billion sq. ft
(2020) of real estate space
Over 85% of the potential
requirement in residential
and industrial categories
Huge demand for Total estimated demand for real estate 2010 – 2020 (in million sq ft)
professionals to build
and deliver this
potential demand!!
14. Potential demand for infrastructure
Planned infrastructure investment of 500 million USD
over 2007-12 and 1 trillion USD over 2013-17 will mean
quantum jumps in requirement of built environment
professionals
~500 billion USD of
infrastructure investments in
11th Five Year Plan – double
of the 10th plan
~1 trillion USD likely in 12th
Five Year Plan – double of
11th plan
Nearly 70% of the total
demand of core
professionals are likely to be
employed in infrastructure
sector which contributes
approximately 76% of the
construction GDP in India
15. Total supply of professionals - 2011
Current supply in built environment comprises of
nearly 50 million people, of which only 2 million are
professionally qualified while remaining are workers
Estimated Supply of Professionals and Workers in Built Environment – 2011 (in ‘000s)
16. Civil engineers
As of 2011, India has a total supply of 533,000 civil
engineers and only 27,000 are being added every year
– against an annual demand of ~4 million
~1.1 million demand towards real estate and
~85.5% shortage 3 million demand towards infrastructure
No. of educational 1,668
institutes
Annual education 11,972
capacity in 2001
Annual education 34,363
capacity in 2009
Growth in seats 14% CAGR
Total supply in 2011 533,000
Annual increase in 27,000
supply
Average supply per 642,000 Average demand per year 2010-20 ~4 million
year 2010-20
Cumulative demand over 2010-20 ~40 million
Cumulative d/s gap over 2010-20 ~39.4 million
18. Architects
As of 2011, we had a total supply of 49,000 architects
and only 3,800 are being added every year – against an
annual demand of 396,000 ~119,000 demand towards real estate and
~ 277,000 demand towards infrastructure
~85% shortage
No. of educational 177
institutes
Annual education 1,712
capacity in 2001
Annual education 4,213
capacity in 2009
Growth in seats 12% CAGR
Total supply in 2011 49,000
Annual increase in 3,800
supply
Average supply per 65,000 Average demand 396,000
year 2010-20 per year 2010-20
Cumulative demand 3.7 million
Cumulative d/s gap 3.6 million
19. Planners
By 2011, there was a total supply of 16,000 planners
and only 616 are being added every year – against an
annual demand of 119,000 ~36,000 demand towards real estate and
~ 83,000 demand towards infrastructure
~85% shortage
No. of educational 21
institutes
Annual education 614
capacity in 2001
Annual education 684
capacity in 2009
Growth in seats 1% CAGR
Total supply in 2011 16,000
Annual increase in 616
supply
Average supply per 18,000 Average demand 119,000
year 2010-20 per year 2010-20
Cumulative demand 1.3 million
Cumulative d/s gap 1.1 million
20. Non core professionals
The estimated supply of non core professionals in the
built environment sector is nearly 3 times the supply
of core professionals.
Demonstrates that ‘non core professionals’ are being drawn into the sector to
compensate for the shortage of ‘core professionals’
Total supply in 2011 (in ‘000s) Cumulative supply of non core professionals in built environment (in ‘000s)
Without sector specific training, these
professionals fall short of the desired skill sets
…a large part of this ‘non core professionals’ needs to
be trained on the real estate, construction and
infrastructure sectors, to convert them into ‘specialized’
professionals
21. Specialisation necessary to enhance skills and productivity
Both core and
non core
professionals
working in built
environment need
training on
specific skill-sets
to branch out into
specialised
professions –
indicated in this
figure
22. Specialized professionals
New demand for specialized professions is now
emerging in order to enhance professional expertise
and improve productivity in this fast paced sector
Total Demand (in ‘000s)
Facilities Managers
88 98
78
26 29 33
18 21
16
FM - Management FM - Executive FM - Technician
Quantity Surveyors 2010 2015 2020
Property Valuers
Total Demand (in ‘000s)
Total Demand (in ‘000s)
97
82 182
70
143
112
Quantity Surveyors
2010 2015 2020
Valuers
2010 2015 2020
23. Professionals specializing in sustainability inventions in planning, architecture and engineering
Sustainable engineering
Sustainable planning
Sustainable architecture
Total Demand (in ‘000s)
Total Demand (in ‘000s)
300
27
284
25
270
24 Total Demand (in ‘000s)
Sustainability - Civil engineers 69
Sustainability - Planners
2010 2015 2020 67
2010 2015 2020
65
Sustainability - Architects
2010 2015 2020
24. Core professionals
If we were to continue with an as-is scenario
with current productivity where capacity of educational
and skill sets possessed institutes is not increased from
by core professionals the actual capacity in 2009
By 2020… India will need over But.. will be able to produce
5 million civil engineers, less than 1 million of
architects and planners these professionals
…and end up with a cumulative demand supply
gap of a staggering 44 million!!
25. Existing shortage of professionals is poised to
become a threat for the high growth of real estate,
construction and infrastructure sectors in India
Potential impact….
Recruitment difficulties = firms will find it more difficult to recruit and retain staff
Increased cost of human resource, adversely impacting development costs and
profitability of operations
Inability to complete tasks efficiently in a time-bound manner = lower production
levels and delay of new projects = economic loss
Skill gaps in domestic manpower = import of talent at higher costs
Sub-standard quality of construction as compared to the global products =
accidents and man made disasters
27. 2020
The road ahead…
• Increase educational capacity to increase
quantum of annual supply
• Up skill existing core and non core
professionals in specific skill sets to improve
productivity
• Encourage collaboration with foreign
universities and faculty for both of above
2010
28. Recommendations
The education and professional development system
for this sector has not kept pace with the economic
growth and is therefore in dire need for reform
Inadequate number of colleges/seats Failure to keep up-to date with constant
introduction of new technologies
Orthodox academic structures with
limited room to adapt to innovation Availability of better pay scales in
and market needs other fields and countries
Curriculum does not explicitly capture Lack of adequate number of training
emerging specialised skill set programs for professionals already in the
requirements discipline
Lack of adequately trained faculty Lack of formalized incentive structures for
that is aware of latest and these professionals to work towards their
emerging technologies continued professional enhancement
29. Recommendations
A cohesive approach across all stakeholders is
recommended to increase annual supply of professionals
and address skill-set gaps in existing manpower
• Adopt a practice oriented
strategy for education
• Enhance regulatory
framework
• Encourage skill • Set professional
development through competency standards
dedicated institutions,
• Ensure the profession
better incentivisation and
friendly policies stays at the forefront and
adapts to changing
needs
• Demand-led employer
engagement in skills
• Embed a culture of learning
integrating employment and
skills
30. Recommendations
Key action areas recommended across stakeholders
Improvement in the regulatory framework and enabling policies
Setting up of centers’ of excellence with some PPP in higher education
Government Set up an independent accreditation and regulation system
Consider passing ‘Foreign Institutions Entry and Operations Bill 2007’
implement a training and certification program
Strengthening skill development effort
Allocate funds and incentivize skill development in critical areas
Collaboration and knowledge sharing with academia and professional bodies
to facilitate development of skill sets inline with demand
Private sector Encourage internships and development of interns
Invest in continuous professional training and development of staff
Encourage accreditation with professional or qualifying bodies
Adoption of sophisticated and innovative tools and expertise
Review and update existing course curriculum
Academic Introduce new courses that offer options for specialization
Institutions Promote careers in built environment
Introduce steps to improve quality of teaching faculty
Drive a more global-centric education curriculum for built environment
32. Methodology
Next step…forecasting growth of the sector and
estimating potential demand for real estate space and
infrastructure to cater to growing population
Growth of the Built • Indian GDP and built environment – historic trends
1
Environment sector • International trends of 4 countries
• Increasing urbanisation leading to urban housing
needs
2 Potential demand for real • Workforce participation leading to commercial &
estate space industrial space
• Increasing population in India – growing need for
hospitals, education infrastructure & similar civic
amenities
• Investments in building infrastructure
3
Planned investments in
infrastructure
• Relationship between infrastructure and
construction GDP
33. 4
Typical project life cycle and …followed by a study of the
type of skills required
skills required across different
stages
Types of skill-sets required
Types of professionals
34. 5
Types of professionals required …and defining broad
to deliver the future real estate
and infrastructure categories of professionals
involved in all these stages
35. 6 Demand / Supply estimates …followed by a detailed estimation
of the demand and supply situation
across all categories
CORE • Organised professions - Civil engineers, architects and planners
a
PROFESSIONALS • Demand analysis - based on real estate space to be built and productivity
of each professional
• Supply based on the new professionals graduating every year
• Two level d/s gap analysis – quantum and skill-set
NON - CORE • Work across sectors – management, law, finance etc
b • Total professionals graduating every year
PROFESSIONALS
• Supply analysis - assumptions on % of such professionals working in built
environment
• Skill-set gap analysis
SPECIALISED • Highly specialised in built environment
c
PROFESSIONALS • New and emerging
• Demand analysis - based on real estate space to be built and productivity
of each professional
• Skill-set gap analysis
• Lesser focus within this research
d WORKERS • Future employment estimated based on historical trends
36. Assumptions
Key assumptions being that the population and
demand for real estate space continues to grow while
the education capacity remains stagnant as of 2009
• Population will grow @ 1.50% (average over 2001-08) per year as per historical trends
• Urban population will increase by CAGR of 2.88% (as witnessed over 1991 – 2011)
• Workforce participation rate will grow at a CAGR of 1.67% (as witnessed over 1993-94 to 2005-06)
• Per capita requirement of real estate space (SF) assumed as established in secondary sources
Detailed estimates
available in report
• Capacity of seats in educational institutions remains stagnant as of 2009
• Assumptions of certain % of non core professionals employed in the sector
Notes de l'éditeur
Still in its infancy, largely unorganized, dominated by no. of small players; very few having national presence Urban land suppy is largely controlled by state-owned development bodies like the Delhi Development Authority (DDA) in Delhi and Housing Boards of each state - leaving very limited developable space free, which is controlled by a few major players Restrictive legislations and lack of transparency in transactions are other main growth impediments A thriving parallel economy involving large amounts of undeclared transactions, mainly due to high stamp duty rates. The current legislative framework also leads to substantial losses to the Government For foreign investors, one troubling fact is a pan-India phenomenon of inadequate transparency in land valuations use to price the investments. There is a marked lack of transparency, corporate governance and accountability among India’s real estate developers ----------------------------------- GOVERNANCE AND CONFIDENCE ISSUES High incidence of cash transactions Taxable income is underreported High transaction costs Lack of adequate disclosures in transactions No benchmarks for risk adjusted returns Faulty and inconsistent valuations LAND Artificial scarcity of land - land banking practice Land acquisition & ownership issues Absence of valuation standards - soaring prices INADEQUATE DELIVERY CAPABILITIES 12-18 months delays in projects Import of architects, designers and planners
1. Built Environment contributed approx. 20% of total GDP in FY 2008, which was mere 10% in FY 1991 2. Future growth of built environment - India recognized as an important business location and its favorable demographic and strong economic impetus make it an attractive place for real estate investors. Government initiatives such as FDI in real estate, SEZ policy, lowering bank rates on housing loans, among others likely to further propel demand in real estate sector