A talk I gave at the third seminar in the ESRC-sponsored series Educational Futures (http://edfutures.futurelab.org.uk/)

1. Methods for Educational Futures Research 5.7.02010 Richard Sandford LSRI, Nottingham UK

2. Outline Why methods? Summary of common techniques Alternative methodological frameworks Educational research perspective Perrotta, Hague & Williamson (2010) “Maintaining Futures Expertise” http://www.futurelab.org.uk/resources/documents/project_reports/Maintaining_Futures_Expertise_Report.pdf

3. Backcastingenvironment scanningforecasting scenariostrend analysiscausal layered analysismetascanningcross-impact matricestime capsulesfutures wheeltime linesMICMACmorphological analysishorizon scanningfutures triangleweak signalssystems dynamicscausal loop diagramsDELPHIvisualisation7 questions5th scenarioeconometricswargamingmodelling

4. Why methods? Enable confidence in claims about future states Enable comparisons within futures work & establish common professional standards Transparency, legitimacy, trust

5. Why not methods? “Tool trap” (Graham Leicester, IFF) Using futures techniques to avoid hard questions “People want the tool, not the struggle” (BCH/MFE) Can be misapplied Spurious credibility& legitimacy FS fundamentally interdisciplinary – no one set of ‘approved’ methods

6. Futures as a process Futures work not a single event Different techniques appropriate at different stages Ideally a continuous cycle Often limited by real-world constraints

7. Foresight UK http://www.foresight.gov.uk/microsites/hsctoolkit/

8. Foresight UK

9. RAHS (Singapore)

10. Hines & Bishop (2007) Framing Scanning Forecasting Visioning Planning Acting

11. Top-level process General framework Not definitive – enabling loose groupings of different methods to support today’s discussion Looking at different ways of organising methods later on

12. Top-level process Finding a question Learning about the world Describing the present world Constructing futures Responding to futures narratives

13. Finding a question Stakeholder analysis Issue analysis Futures wheel

14. Learning about the world Weak signals Horizon scanning Shaping Tomorrow, Sigma scan Trend extrapolation Gathering opinions + beliefs about possible futures DELPHI, 7 questions ‘crowdsourcing’, sentiment analysis

15. Describing the present world Systems dynamics Causal loop diagrams Morphological analysis Driver analysis Modelling Gaming

16. Causal loop diagrams http://blog.iseesystems.com/stella-ithink/limits-to-growth/

17. Causal loop diagrams http://www.foresight.gov.uk/OurWork/ActiveProjects/Obesity/Obesity.asp

18. Morphological analysis

19. Constructing futures Scenarios Multiple methods: different purposes Instances of outputs from models 2 x 2 grid Causal layered analysis Timelines Connecting present to future

20. Responding to futures narratives 5th scenario Backcasting Visioning Windtunnelling Roadmaps

21. The unexpected “Black swans” (Taleb) unpredictability of high-impact events “Dragon kings” (Sornette) statistical outliers indicative of major system change Discontinuties, wild cards, shocks “unknown unknowns” Tipping points, phase transitions “social analogues” (Sornette)

22. The unexpected Hard to reflect in scenario-based approaches Not detectable through trend extrapolation Emergent products of complexity Unlikely? Or unpalatable?

23. Sorting methodological approaches

24. Who’s doing it? Governments & agencies STEEP/STEM, persuasion Private companies Technologists, planners, designers Activists Academics

25. How long does it take? 3 years? 3 hours? Different methods require lengths of time Engagement time & preparation time different Dependencies on other methods & research Supports an open-ended and continuous process? Or moves towards a final destination?

26. FS traditions Empirical/analytic “data-driven, positivistic, often corporate”/RAND Critical/comparative Perhaps closest to education research? Activist/participatory Links with women’s, peace & environmental groups Multicultural/global (Slaughter, Futures Beyond Dystopia ch. 3)

27. 6 concepts 6 pillars Used futures Disowned futures Alternative futures Alignment Models of social change Uses of the future Inayatullah (2008) Mapping Anticipation Timing Deepening Creating alternatives Transforming

28. Other categorisations Masini (1999) Descriptive Normative Objective Subjective Systemic Slaughter (1999) Input methods Analytic methods Paradigmatic methods Iterative & exploratory methods Gordon (1992) Exploratory Normative

29. Activities that... Address facts about the world Empirical, data-based Address beliefs about the world Social sci techniques Encourage conversation and dialogue Workshop approaches Describe relations between things Systems thinking Speak to the heart & imagination Time capsules, visualisation Value human existence & experience Ethnographic & participatory

30. Education research & futures Already encountered, and addressed, many epistemic and methodological difficulties FS beginning to recognise Already able to differentiate appropriate & valid methods – same criteria as other academic domains

31. No best answers Multiple perspectives and traditions within FS and broader futures work Multiple perspectives and traditions within education research as well Not appropriate to prescribe some methods over others So how to choose for a particular project?

32. Matching scope What’s the unit of analysis? Nation state, organisation, individual? Where does the influence of a technique or methodological perspective start and finish? End with policymakers? Only concerned with canvassing beliefs? What tasks is it designed to accomplish? Generating or communicating futures?

33. Matching worldviews How does a particular technique assume change happens in the world? What models of cause and effect are in play? ‘trends’ colliding & interacting sits uneasily with some social science perspectives ‘levers of change’ can seem simplistic Who are the actors in the futures generated?

34. Matching values How does a particular technique talk about people? Is it concerned with meeting the same ends? Does it help education meet ethical responsibility to promote action? Does it give any role to the people affected by the futures it contributes to?

35. Possible challenges Links between FS and education research clear Hard to sign up to the sort of social interventions FS can ask for Perceived danger of sounding naive Education research practice situated within the contexts that FS aims to challenge

36. Other fields Many other academic & professional disciplines with a temporal orientation Many other domains concerned with changing behaviour FS & education research both used to looking to other disciplines Geography, architecture, design, medicine...

37. Psychiatry Increasing attention given to mental health challenges raised by negative futures living in them and thinking about them “Solastalgia” – Glenn Albrecht Homesickness while in a (changed) home Notions of ‘resilience’ more prominent “Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems: The Role of Learning and Education” Krasnyet al. (Dec 10) C4 Education ‘Super Me’

38. Religion Existing cultural languages of deep time and consequence Useful as provocation or alternative view in supporting futures conversation Reaffirming (e.g. Inayatullah)’s insistence on recognising global diversity of worldviews

39. Fundamental question Does your chosen approach reaffirm the status quo? Or does it lead to questions you find uncomfortable?

40. Thank you richard.sandford@futurelab.org.uk