Kyiv Project Management Day 2017 Spring
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Андрій Мудрий «Risk managemnt: Welcome to Risk World»
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2. “The major difference between a thing
that might go wrong and a thing that
cannot possibly go wrong is that when a
thing that cannot possibly go wrong goes
wrong it usually turns out to be impossible
to get at or repair…”
Douglas Adams
4. What is a risk ?
Uncertain
Event or
Condition
Always in
the Future
Impact on
project
Objectives
Ha s Causes,
Impact and
Probability
Negative or
Positive
Outcome
14. Impact Definition Matrix
Project
Objective
Very Low
5%
Low
10%
Moderate
20%
High
40%
Very High
80%
Cost Insignificant
cost increase
<5% cost
increase
5-10% cost
increase
10-20% cost
increase
>20% cost
increase
Schedule
Insignificant
schedule
slippage
Schedule
slippage <5%
Overall
project
slippage 5-10%
Overall
project
slippage 10-
20%
Overall
project
schedule slips
>20%
Scope
Scope change
barely
noticeable
Minor areas of
scope are
affected
Major areas of
scope are
affected
Scope
reduction
unacceptable
to the client
Project output
is effectively
useless
Quality
Quality
degradation
barely
noticeable
Only very
demanding
applications
are affected
Quality
reduction
requires client
approval
Quality
reduction
unacceptable
to the client
Project output
is effectively
unusable
15. Give it a Try…
There is a web application – business analytics. Known technologies, DB, 23 main modules, DB architecture is
very complex, DB performance is very critical with the strict acceptance criteria. Requirement are 50% defined,
very low chances forrequirementsto be changed,but they should be very clearbeforethe realization.
Now is August, release is on April 1. Client wants to have full transparency on progress. There couldn’t be delay
withthe deliveryof the wholescope,it is moreimportant thanbudget.
Test environment is on client’sside, very big loadon the network connection(morethanthe channel is now).
Client is very qualified in business area, will be doing UAT. Main expert on the client’s side is Jar Jar Binks.
Project team should be 15 people, 5 are missing, they will be not used after project completion. DB architect
works on another project 60-70%. Client’s expert Jar Jar Binks hardly uses email and has strong non-English
accent.
16. Give it a Try…
Challenge:
1. Categorization of Sources and Influence (Matrix)
2. Matrix of Probability and Impact
3. NB! Matrix of Influence Definition
4. Roles and responsibilities. Plan of activities in risks management.
5. Tolerance and watchlist, reserves.
6. Present
18. Risk Registry
ID Risk Impact Probability Impact Risk Value Notes
1
Application
response will be
worse than
expected according
to the acceptance
criteria
Architecture redesign –
3 weeks
2
Specifications aren’t
confirmed by client
Corresponding time
delay, budget increase
3 … …
19. Risk Registry
• ID
• Description
• Impact
• Likelihood
• Impact
• Score
• Status
• Type (risk | opportunity)
• Responsible person
• Response strategy
• Comments (history)
• I use it to track all the action and
comments to see the track record
of what was going on with this risk
20. Keep up giving it a try …
• Identify 10 Risks
• Create Risk
Register.
22. Qualitative Risk Analysis
ID Risk Impact
Probabilit
y Impact Risk Value Notes
1
Application response will
be worse than expected
according to the
acceptance criteria
Architecture
redesign – 3 weeks
3 5 15
2
Specifications aren’t
confirmed by client
Corresponding
time delay, budget
increase
2 1 2
3 … …
Current Risks
Watchlist
27. Monitor & Control Risks
Planning
Identification
Analysis
Response Monitor &
Control Risks
Project Plan
Change Requests
Risk Registry
Project Documentation
28. Risk Management Rules
Make Risk Management Part of Your Project
Identify Risks Early in Your Project
Communicate About Risks
Consider Both Threats and Opportunities
Clarify Ownership Issues
Prioritize Risks
Analyze Risks
Plan and Implement Risk Responses
Register Project Risks
Track Risks and Associated Tasks