4. Positive Result Neutral Result Negative Result Economic Overview Current Results Longer Term Outlook RFG Perspective Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Up 1.6% (2nd qtr 2010) Projected 2% to 3% growth for 2010 Positive growth for last three quarters; however, growth will remain modest at best Unemployment 9.6% (August 2010) Likely to remain in 10% range for 2010 Tepid GDP growth will result in unemployment remaining at very high levels Vehicle Sales Up 14.0% (seven months 2010 vs. seven months 2009) 2010 will be lowest year since 1984, except for 2009 Improvement looks promising but coming from historically low levels Housing Starts Up 11.0% (seven months 2010 vs. seven months 2009) 2010 will be second lowest year in history (other than 2009) Likely to remain low for the next several years as we work through excess housing Foreclosures Down 3% (May 2010 from June 2010) 2010 still likely to see highest foreclosure activity in history Subprime has spread to prime; foreclosures will remain high in 2010 Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) 50.4 (July 2010; 1985 = 100) Consumer confidence has been below 100 since Sept 2007 Consumer confidence is slowly improving but not likely to exceed 100 any time soon
5. Industry Consolidation Continues The number of banks and credit unions have both declined by over 36% since 1994. By 2014 there is likely to be 6,500 banks and 6,100 credit unions. Projection Source: NCUA, FDIC, 2014 estimates by Raddon Financial Group
6. Industry Net Interest Margins Continue to Decline Margins have declined for financial institutions over the past 15 years. This decline has occurred in both high and low rate environments.
7. 2009 Reversed a Long-Term Growth Trend in Non-Interest Income Source: Raddon Financial Group, CEO Strategies Group
8. The Hand You’ve Been Dealt CARD Act Debit Card Interchange Overdraft Fee Income Legislation, Legislation, Legislation Dodd-Frank CFPB Great Recession Loan Losses Insurance Premiums NCUA
9. Turning your Hand Around ODP Opt-in Operational Efficiency: Revenue & Expense Loan Growth Gen Y Social Media Delivery Channel Optimization Small Business Rational Pricing
13. The Dodd-Frank Act: Projected Impact on Credit Unions Provision Impact 1 Creates the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection, a New Consumer Watchdog Agency Housed within the Federal Reserve Board High 2 Establishes a New Financial Stability Oversight Council, Charged with Identifying and Responding to Emerging Risks in the Financial System Medium 3 Establishes New Regulation of Debit Card Interchange Fees High 4 Restructures the Federal Regulatory Jurisdiction over Banks and Their Parent Companies, and Abolishes the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) Low 5 Adopts New Standards and Rules for the Mortgage Industry Medium 6 Grants the Treasury, FDIC, and the Fed Broad Powers to Seize and Wind Down “Too Big to Fail” Financial Institutions (Including Non-Bank) in an Orderly Fashion None 7 Allows Depository Institutions to begin Paying Interest on Demand Deposits (Small Business Checking) Low 8 Tasks the Federal Banking Agencies with Adopting New and Enhanced Capital Standards for All Depository Institutions Low 9 Permanently Increases the Deposit Insurance Limit to $250,000 per Depositor per Institution for Each Account Ownership Category Low
16. Step 1: Maximize Opt-In Step 2: Evaluate Product Lines Step 3: Back to Basics What Percentage of your Members are Opting In? Can Free Checking Survive? Relationship Development and Operational Efficiency
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20. Financial Impact of Reg E and Fee Structure Changes Based on the consumer responses for each NSF group, the average institution should realize two-thirds of their past overdraft income. Based on consumer reactions to various fee structure scenarios, the typical institution would only retain 48% of past OD income if the fee is reduced by $10.
21. REACTION TO A CHECKING ACCOUNT REQUIREMENT Source: RFG National Consumer Research (SPSG), Spring 2010
22. Difference in Impact of an Annual Fee On Debit and Credit Rewards Programs Source: Raddon Financial Group, National Consumer Research
23. Top 10 Largest Retail Banks - Free, if… As-of 9/2/2010 Free Checking, if… Direct Deposit or 5+ monthly Debit Card Transactions eBanking: Deposits & Withdrawals made electronically or at ATM; and E-Statements required MyAccess: Direct Deposit or $1500 min avg balance Combined Avg Balance of $1500 in Checking or Savings Value Checking (no bill-pay): Direct Deposit or $1500 avg daily balance Custom Mgt Package: Checking and Savings packaged: $1,000 balance; or $25 auto transfer to Savings; or Direct Deposit FREE (no requirements) – Includes Free Debit Card Rewards FREE (no requirements) – Includes Free Debit & Bill-Pay Rewards; ATM rebates when Avg Monthly Balance $2,000+ Direct Deposit or $1500 Deposit Balances or $5000 Combined Balances FREE (no requirements) – Includes Free Debit Card Rewards $100 Min Daily Balance (waived for 1 st 12 months); Includes Debit Rewards and ATM Rebates FREE (no requirements) – Includes Free Debit Card Rewards
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33. REVENUE PER HOUSEHOLD PROFILE: Top 10 “Relationship” Institutions by Asset Size and Peer Group CRITERIA: Ten Highest Average Percentiles in Services and Balances per HH SERVICES PER HOUSEHOLD EXPENSE PER HOUSEHOLD BALANCES PER HOUSEHOLD EFFICIENCY RATIO Build Relationships to Drive Efficiency High Asset Low Asset $750M Community Non-Community $31,055 86 73.9% 59 $1,154 94 $938 93 $826 87 $788 84 $556 25 $646 23 2.79 97 $623 12 2.49 88 2.45 86 $49,386 96 $31,861 88 $570 20 2.57 91 $37,629 91 59.1% 86 71.6% 64 61.0% 85
34. Retail Banking Space Dominated by Three Players The U.S. banking system has become more oligopolistic – three major players dominate the US banking space. Source: FDIC
35. Bank Branch Growth Has Declined Source: FDIC 2007 was the heyday for bank branch expansion with the addition of 2,443 new bank branches. 2009 actually saw a shrinkage in the number of bank locations in the US.
36. Credit Union Branch Growth Is Also Down Source: NCUA Credit union branch locations grew steadily through the 2000s until 2009, where we saw a decline in the number of credit union locations in the US.
37. Online Banking and Lobby Trends Source: RFG National Research, Fall 2009 Since 2000 we have seen the usage of online banking grow from 8% of households nationwide to 54%. In that same period, usage of lobby or drive-up facilities has declined only very slightly. Delivery channels tend to be complementary, not substitutive.
38. Gen Y Usage of Lobby and Drive-up is Not Significantly Different Than Other Groups Source: RFG National Consumer Research
39. Branch Availability and Service Quality Equally Important in Selecting Primary Institution Source: RFG National Research, Fall 2009
40. Electronics Important to Younger Demographics, But Branches Are Still Important Source: RFG National Research, Fall 2009
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43. The Generational Segments Traditionalist Baby Boomers Gen X Gen Y 2.7 million births per year (MBPY) 3.9 MBPY 3.4 MBPY 3.8 MBPY Avg. Household Deposits: $32K $16K $11K $33K
44. Generation Future Loan Demand Source: RFG National Consumer Research Make Sure They Are Over 21
45. Cell Phone Internet Data Plan Ownership Source: RFG National Consumer Research
53. The Personal Savings Rate is Rebounding Personal savings rates (savings as a percent of disposable income) have fallen significantly below the long-term historical rate of 7% (from 1946 to 2008) since the early 1990s. The personal savings rate rose in 2008 and 2009, and suggests a de-leveraging on the part of the consumer. This is good news long-term – BUT the impact on loan growth will continue to be felt. Actual Projected Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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55. Why Consumers Are Loyal To Their Primary Financial Institution Credit Union Issue : Too much of the value proposition is built on price. We have to move beyond philosophy of “one size fits all.” Source: Raddon Financial Group, National Consumer Research , Spring 2010
56. Members Use Multiple Institutions 1.7 Average 2.6 Average 1.4 Average 1.4 Average Source: Raddon Financial Group, National Consumer Research
60. Historical Look at Consumer Debt Revolving Consumer Debt (majority of which is Credit Card debt) has risen consistently since the FDIC started tracking this data in 1968…until now. The recent decline in revolving consumer debt is unprecedented.
62. Understanding the composition of the credit card portfolio is important in identifying what drives profitability and relationships for different types of card users. Based on data from RFG’s Credit Card Analysis program, the average percent of cardholders within each of the five Credit Card Segments is shown on this page. Source: RFG Credit Card Analysis
63. Credit Card Household Relationship While the strength of the card relationship is important, it is also important to look at the total relationship of these households. In many cases, the card itself is a drain in terms of account profitability, but the overall relationship with the member is very strong. Source: RFG Credit Card Analysis The value of the Relationship: Only 2 of the segments are profitable at the account level, yet overall Household Profit is positive across all segments.
69. Small Business Remains Pessimistic Small businesses were asked how long they predict the economic downturn will last. Their estimates have lengthened over the last 12 months. Source: RFG Small Business National Research, Spring 2010 4% 4% 4% 12% 12% 10% 19% 24% 18% 29% 23% 27% 30% 27% 34% 6% 8% 7% Percent Citing Less Than 6 Months 6 to 9 Months 9 to 12 Months 12 to 18 Months More than 18 Months Do Not Know Spring '09 Estimate Fall '09 Estimate Spring '10 Estimate
72. PFI DESIGNATIONS 39% 23% 22% 7% 3% 4% Percent Cited as PFI Nationwide Bank Local Bank - Community Bank Regional Bank-Multi- state But Not Nationwide Credit Union Credit Card Company Do Not Have One Primary Provider Institution Type Designated as Business PFI Source: RFG Small Business National Research, Spring 2010
73. SATISFACTION LEVEL WITH PFI BY TYPE OF PFI Source: RFG Small Business National Research, Spring 2010
74. Pricing is #1 Reason for Dissatisfaction Source: RFG Small Business National Research, Spring 2010