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University of Vienna, Austria – T. Glade, C. Promper, H. Petschko
CNRS, Strasbourg, France – J.-P. Malet, A. Remaître, A. Puissant
CSIC, Zaragoza, Spain – S. Bégueria, G. Sanchez, R. Serrano
Final Meeting, 26-27 September 2013, Barcelona
: changing pattern of landslide
risks as a response to global
changes in mountain areas
KEY RESEARCH QUESTION
 Can we identify changes in landslide hazard (susceptibility, frequency,
magnitude) and landslide risks (vulnerability, costs) associated to climate and
landuse change scenarios?
 What indicators to express these possible changes?
(modified from Glade & Crozier, 2005)
CONCEPT AND METHODOLOGY
 Definition of time series & maps of actual/changing predisposing/triggering factors
 Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide hazard maps
 Definition of ‘changed’ maps of landcover and socio-economic factors
 Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide risks maps
CONCEPT AND METHODOLOGY
 Definition of time series & maps of actual/changing predisposing/triggering factors
 Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide hazard maps
STAKEHOLDERS
Indicators of changes
Maps
CONCEPT AND METHODOLOGY
 Definition of ‘changed’ maps of landcover and socio-economic factors
 Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide risks maps
 Definition of time series & maps of actual/changing predisposing/triggering factors
 Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide hazard maps
METHOD
 Comparative analysis of 2 study areas with different environmental conditions
and different exposures to landslide risks
Stakeholder:
Geological Survey & Spatial Planning and Regional Policy
Division of the Federal Government of Lower Austria
Stakeholder:
Service de Restauration des Terrains en Montagne
WAIDHOFFEN AN DER YBBS, LOWER AUSTRIA
 Landslides and damages
Mudflows
Shallow slides
BARCELONNETTE, SOUTH FRENCH ALPS
 Landslides and damages
Faucon, 1996La Valette
Large mudslides Debris flows
Faucon, 2003
PROJECT ORGANIZATION: TASKS
Flowchart of project tasks
Hazard analysis
(Starwars,
Probstab
MassMove)
Landslide inventories
Observed probability of occurrence
Magnitude-frequency relationships
Susceptibility analysis
(multivariate modelling)
local scale / hot-spot
(e.g. 1:5000 – 1:2000)
regional scale
(e.g. 1:25.000 – 1:10.000)
Scale of analysis
landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds
conditionning factors maps
WORKPACKAGE 1
Cepeda & Devoli (2008)
Montgomery D R et al.
Geology 2000;28:311-314
Landslide:
Geomorphologic mapping, aerial photo-interpretation,
historical archives, etc.
Climate:
Synoptic analysis, rainfall antecedent condition, rainfall
thresholds (mean & peak intensities), etc.
Landcover:
Landcover mapping at different dates (from 1956 to
present) using historical archives and aerial photograph
TECHNIQUES
RESULTS
 Landslide inventory maps
Barcelonnette:
- high number of fast-moving landslides (south-facing slope)
- large slow-moving slides with fluidization (black marls outcrops)
- many slow moving roto-translational slides (moraine deposits)
- more than 200 landslide events for the period 1950-2011
 update for temporal assessment (PhD. R. Schlögel)
Barcelonnette – point data: 1740 - 2010
Barcelonnette – polygon data: aerial photo-interpretation
RESULTS
 Landslide inventory maps
Waidhofen/Ybbs:
 more than 650 landslide events for the period 1950-2012
(using orthophotographs interpretation : 1962, 1979, 1988 and
ALS inventory)
 >80% of the events were slides
 update for temporal assessment (PhD. C. Promper)
Waidhofen/Ybbs – point data: 1950 - 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
Landslidesaccordingtoarea(%)
square meters
200m² classes
1000m² classes
>600m² class
 Climate classification: analysis of synoptic weather situations
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
(1) polar air-mass penetrating through
the Mediterranean sea (P med)
(2) polar air-mass penetrating through
the Atlantic ocean or the North sea
(Pm)
(3) degraded polar air-mass penetrating
through the Atlantic ocean or the
North sea (Pm d)
(4) tropical air-mass penetrating through
the Mediterranean sea (T med)
(5) tropical air-mass penetrating through
the Atlantic ocean (Tm)
(6) continental tropical air-mass (T cont)
 Climate classification: analysis of synoptic weather situations
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
When the air mass is crossing the
Mediterranean see (P med or T
med), most of the events corresponds
to debris flows (24 cases out of 32).
This must be put in relation with the
occurrence of strong and fast
thunderstorm in summer
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
There are no specific relationship
between the occurrence of slow-
moving landslide and a specific air
mass type.
Nevertheless for a specific type (Pm),
90% of the events are slow-moving
landslides. This can be put in relation
with the seasonal frequency of such
air-masses type in the South French
Alps. Indeed, most of these air
masses are crossing the study area in
Winter or early Spring.
 Climate classification: analysis of synoptic weather situations
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
 Rainfall patterns: antecedent cumulative rainfalls and seasonal patterns
Waidhofen/Ybbs
Barcelonnette
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
 Rainfall patterns: daily rainfall
•Type A: this situation is characterized by heavy daily
rainfall following a 30-days dry period. For most of the
observed events, this climate situation corresponds to
violent generalized summer storms
•Type B: this situation exhibits the same pattern as Type
A except that the rainfall event has been recorded in a
single rain gauge as the other rain gauges have recorded
nothing or just a small amount of precipitation. In this
case, the convective summer storm is localized in a small
area (typically a single crest)
•Type C: this situation is characterized by heavy
cumulative rainfall distributed over a very rainy period of
30 days. This climate situation characterizes either the
progressive saturation of the topsoil, the rising of a
permanent groundwater table and the build-up of positive
pore pressures.
•Type D: this situation characterizes absence of rainfall
events for a given day of occurrence of a landslides or a
debris-flow event. This can be related to two main
explanations: (a) the triggering is due to a rapid snow
melt without any liquid rain, (b) the rainfall occurs as a
localized hailstorm not recorded by the rainfall station.
Daily rainfall vs mass movement: probabilities of mass m.
occurrence for daily rainfall categories…
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
 Rainfall patterns: daily rainfall
Calculations based on the antecedent daily rainfall model (Crozier & Eyles 1980; extended by Glade et al., 2000)
The decay of antecedent conditions is based on hydrology data, which represent the drainage of a given catchment
 Rainfall thresholds: antecedent rainfall approach
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
Certainty
No landslide
Landslide not certain
Landslide certain
DailyPrecipitationinmm
[10 Days]
-> Differences between winter and summer months
-> Winter: Less daily precipitation required to trigger
landslides
-> Generally: Precipitation on the day of occurrence is much
more important than the previous antecedent rainfall
-> Landslide triggering rainfall events occurred mostly in
summer when events with relatively high precipitation of
continental depressions occur.
Wallner S. (2012) Niederschlagsschwellenwerte für die Auslösung von Hangrutschungen – in progress
RESULTS
Calculations based on the rainfall intensity threshold method (Caine, 1980; Montgomery et al., 2000)
The rainfall intensity is based on the total amount of rainfall for a given duration (1h; 2h; 6h; 12h; 24h), which may
trigger or reactivate a landslide
 Rainfall thresholds: intensity-duration approach
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
Peak intensity associated to debris flows and mudslides triggering
-> Events characterized by high rainfall intensity and
short episode duration (i.e. mostly the result of localized
convective storms) will trigger mostly debris flows and
shallow slides in relatively permeable soils (e.g. moraines,
scree slopes or poorly sorted slope deposits).
-> Long rainfall periods characterized by low to moderate
average and peak rainfall intensity (i.e. the result of
multiple and successive storms during a period of several
weeks or months) can trigger or reactivate shallow and
deep-seated mudslides in low permeability soils and rocks
(e.g., black marls, clay-rich material).
RESULTS
 Rainfall thresholds: intensity-duration approach
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
10
1
10
0
10
1
10
0
Duration (h)
Intensity (mm/h)
A
14d
(mm)
Generalization of I-D model

 DAI n ][ 2
1
where:
I, D and  as in ID model
An: antecedent n-day precipitation (mm)
1 and 2: constants of the model
Cepeda, Nadim, Høeg & Elverhøi (2009)
 Rainfall thresholds: intensity-duration approach
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
10
1
10
0
10
1
10
0
Duration (h)
Intensity (mm/h)
A
23d
(mm)
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
logD
logI
0 = 7.75787+-3.37368 logD+-12.2519 logI
No debris flow
Debris flow
5163.16788.0
232.181 
 DAI d
275.0
297.4 
 DI
for debris flows, a traditional ID threshold is sufficient
+ triggering rainfall 1 to 9 hrs
+ no need of antecedent rain
for slides, an improved performance is achieved with the IAD model
+ triggering rainfall 3 to 17 hrs
+ need of antecedent rain of 50 days
meteorological paramater maps
landcover maps
landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds
conditionning factors maps
1897
2003
quantitative
scenarios
->
WORKPACKAGE 2
Climate:
Use of downscaled times series from
Newtech (Max-Planck-IM), Gach2c
(Meteo-France) & SafeLand (CMCC
S.c.a.r.l) projects 1970-2000 / 2070-2100
Landcover:
DYNA-CLUE model scenarios
TECHNIQUES
 Climate modelling
Dataset: station (observed) data
• Network of six meteo stations with
daily precipitation data in the
Barcelonnette area
• Summer Pndq0.9 computed for
each station
• Gridded data, 0.035º resolution
(aprox. 4 km)
• Model CMCC-CM1 (downscaling
driven by ECHAM4-REMO
GCM/RCM)
• Radiative / emmission scenarios:
CMIP5 (control), RCP4.5/RCP8.5
(future)
• Periods: reference (1965–2000)
and future (2001–2050)
Dataset: GCM data
1. Scoccimarro E., S. Gualdi, A. Bellucci, A. Sanna, P.G. Fogli, E. Manzini, M. Vichi, P. Oddo, and A. Navarra, 2011: Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Ocean Heat Transport in a High
Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model. Journal of Climate, 24, 4368-4384.
Example: precipitation field in Barcelonnette
of 1st January 1965
RESULTS
0,0
200,0
400,0
600,0
800,0
1000,0
1200,0
XX71 XX72 XX73 XX74 XX75 XX76 XX77 XX78 XX79 XX80 XX81 XX82 XX83 XX84 XX85 XX86 XX87 XX88 XX89 XX90 XX91 XX92 XX93 XX94 XX95 XX96 XX97 XX98 XX99 XX00
Yearlyrainfall(mm)
Yearly rainfall (2071-2100) Yearly rainfall (1971-2000) Moving average 5 yrs (2071-2100) Moving average 5 yrs (1971-2000)
 Climate modelling
Example of meteorological parameter database:
yearly rainfall at the Barcelonnette station for the past (1971-2000) and the future (2071-2100)
 Creation of parameter maps relevant for landslide triggering
Parameter 1: 90th percentile of maximum n-days summer precipitation (Pndq0.9, 1 ≤ n ≤ 10)
• Most landslides are related to intense summer (JJA) rainfall episodes lasting for several days.
•The 90th percentile is the extreme event associated to a recurrence period of 10 years, which seems appropriate for
landslide occurrence.
•Creation of maps of summer Pndq0.9 precipitation for the actual and future periods.
RESULTS
Map of summer P10dq0.9
• Good relationship with elevation (p-value = 0.00977, r2 = 0.84)
• OLS regression with elevation as covariate.
Map of summer P10dq0.9 for the
reference period based on station-data
Regression between summer
P10dq0.9 and elevation
 Climate modelling
RESULTS
Extrapolating to future scenario
• Maps of P10dq0.9 were computed from GCM data for ref.
and future periods.
• Ratio between future and reference periods was used for
extrapolating station-based P10dq0.9 map to future.
Map of summer P10dq0.9 for the future
period based on station-data and GCM
projected change
Ratio between future and reference
summer P10dq0.9 based on GCM data:
cyan = increase, magenta = decrease
 Climate modelling
RESULTS
 Landcover modelling
1956
RESULTS
2004
 Landcover modelling
RESULTS
 Landcover modelling: observed frequency of changes
Density of observed changes
RESULTS
 Landcover modelling: observed frequency of changes
Scenario-based approach (e.g. PRUDENCE)
A: Agriculture
B: Tourism
C: Environmental awareness
D. Natural hazard
Simplified spider diagram of changing scenarios, and identification of key factors
RESULTS
 Landcover modelling: DYNA-CLUE model (logistic regression)
Conversion matrix
Scenario 1 – Environmental protection: assumption of
landcover changes
RESULTS
Scenario 1: Environmental protection (2010/2100)
 Landcover modelling
RESULTS
Scenario 2: Tourism activity increase (2010/2100)
 Landcover modelling
RESULTS
Scenario 3: Agriculture increase (2010/2100)
 Landcover modelling
RESULTS
Scenario 4: Increase in landslide hazards (2010/2100)
 Landcover modelling
RESULTS
 Landcover modelling
RESULTS
Waidhofen/Ybbs
There is a steady increase in building area and
streets.
The land cover types grassland and forest, which
make up the largest part of the study area, show
fluctuation over the analysis time.
Arable land, acreage, makes up a very small part
and is also highly fluctuating.
The main driving forces of
change, economy, population,
tourism and transport increase
within scenario 4 .
In both maps it is clearly indicated
that an increase in population
drives building area, especially in
the southern valleys. From 2030
to 2100 a major increase in forest
areas is shown.
Translational slide Rotational slide
landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds
conditionning factors maps
landslide susceptibility maps (statistical models)
landslide hazard maps (process-based models)
WORKPACKAGE 3
meteorological paramater maps
landcover maps
quantitative
scenarios
->
Susceptibility analysis:
Multivariate modelling
Introduction of new parameter maps
Hazard analysis:
Modelling chain Starwxars-Probstab-
MassMove
TECHNIQUES
 Susceptibility modelling
Integration of climate parameter maps (actual, future) and landcover maps (actual, future)
in a multivariate model  e.g. MSc thesis: A. Schmidt
 Hazard modelling
Development of processing chain of process-based models:
Starwars – ProbStab – MassMove/SlowMove
(van Beek, 2002; Malet et al. 2005; Remaitre et al., 2008; Begueria et al., 2009
STARWARS PROBSTAB
FOSM approach
- pix. Fs <1
- 3 scen. for depth
- possibly other ..
MassMov SlowMov
FOSM approach
triggers slope stability
Prob. of parameter 1, 2, 3
fast-moving flows
FOSM approach
slow-moving slides
Prob. of parameter 1, 2, 3
Methodology
RESULTS
 Susceptibility modelling
RESULTS
Waidhofen/Ybbs
The map represents the susceptibility
map of 2005 and shows the results of the
regression model.
The southern slopes and the Flyschzone
in the central part show the highest
susceptible areas for all scenarios.
In the south river channels are higher
susceptible than neighbouring areas and
as well as similar areas in the north. In the
north a thin net of low susceptibility is
within a wider area with higher
susceptibility. This represents the roads,
which did not have any landslides in the
sampling data set.
 Susceptibility modelling
RESULTS
The results show the distribution of the susceptibility classes in the different scenarios and the backward
modelling. A tendency towards an increasing value in the highest two susceptibility classes can be
observed. However this trend is not continuing over all time periods. This trend is much stronger from 2050
to 2100 than for the first future period analysed. The modelling backward shows also an increasing
susceptibility in the highest class in 1962 but the lowest class decreased not as strong as in the 100 year
scenarios.
 Susceptibility modelling
RESULTS
Barcelonnette
 Susceptibility modelling
RESULTS
Richards equation
Transient simulations
 Starwars: slope hydrology (van Beek, 2002; Malet et al., 2005, … and others)
 Core model
pi
w
*w
rwi )z(k
g
kq 



• Generalized Darcy’s law for saturated & unsaturated medium
t
n
t
n
t
)n(








• Continuity equation
t
W
z
h
)(k
zy
h
)(k
yx
h
)(k
x 


































• Richards diffusivity equation
 Additional capabilities
• dual porosity (fissure flow, matrix flow)
• lateral inputs: Qlat = f(t)
• snow cover formation and snow melting
• topographic control: altitude on rainfall temperature
slope gradient on radiation
• vegetation (canopy interception, transpiration)
RESULTS
• Initial conditions: moisture content and groundwater level = 25 years of time series
• Parameter optimisation (Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm, Pest software): mean observed data +- 20%
• calibration on 2 piezometers with continuous recording + 10 piezometers with punctual measurements
 Starwars: slope hydrology (van Beek, 2002; Malet et al., 2005, … and others)
 Application to real data: Super-Sauze landslide
RESULTS
+ 7 m
+ 6 m
+ 5 m
+ 4 m
+ 3 m
+ 2 m
+ 1 m
0 m
1 map per month (june 2000 – may 2001)
 Highest ground water levels:
- in the main central gully (convergence of flux lines)
- in the ablation zone of the earthflow (also the zone with the highest velocities)
 Starwars: slope hydrology (van Beek, 2002; Malet et al., 2005, … and others)
 Application to real data: Super-Sauze landslide
RESULTS
 ProbStab: slope stability (van Beek, 2002; Malet, 2003, Malet et al., 2007)
Richards equation
Transient simulations
• Mohr-Coulomb constitutive equation (c- and f- parameters)
• Bishop or Janbu solution
• Circular or non circular slip search (minimum FOS)
through a grid search specification utility function
 Volume of released material
 Probabilities of release
RESULTS
• Rainfall: 50 mm in 70h
• 6-years return period
• FOS
• Observed/simulated
GWLs • GEV & observed event
 volumes
 Application to real data: Super-Sauze landslide; main failure in May 1999
 ProbStab: slope stability (van Beek, 2002; Malet, 2003, Malet et al., 2007)
RESULTS
 MassMov: mass flow kinematics (Begueria et al., 2009)
Assumptions:
- Saint-Venant equation (shallow water approximation)
- One-phase flow
- Depth-integrated solution
Mass and momentum conservation:
Rheology:
- Viscous fluid (Bingham, Couloimb-viscous, Hershel-Bulkley)
- Frictional (pure Coulomb, Voellmy)
RESULTS
 MassMov: mass flow kinematics (Begueria et al., 2009)
 Application to synthetic cases
Simulation of the propagation of a slurry wave over an idealized fan
topography. An inlet area of five pixels was defined at the upper part of
the fan, which represents the conextion with an upstream torrent. A
constant input rate of 80 cm of mud flow was applied at the inlet during
the first 20 seconds. The panels show the thickness of the flow at times
t = 5, 20, 35 and 50 s, in m.
Propagation of a mud flow slurry on a channel. The input
hydrograph had a triangular shape, raising from 0.65 m to 0.85 m at
25 seconds and then falling to 0 m at 30 seconds. The panels show
the flow thickness at times t = 15, 30, 45 and 60 seconds.
Simulation of the interaction between a mudflow and a rigid
obstacle over a slope. Color scale: flow depth (m).
RESULTS
 Hazard assessment through modelling
Estimation of probabilities of failure, runout distances and magnitude parameters (velocity, impact
forces, thickness) through Monte-Carlo simulations
RESULTS
quantitative
scenarios
->
meteorological paramater maps
landcover maps
socio-economic trends
landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds
conditionning factors maps
landslide potential consequence maps
landslide costs
landslide risk maps
WORKPACKAGE 4
landslide susceptibility maps (statistical models)
landslide hazard maps (process-based models)
 Consequence analysis
Schematic overview
of the semi-quantitative
Potential Damage Index
method developed to
estimate consequences
at a regional scale.
(methodology of Puissant
et al. (2005) applied to the
whole Barcelonnette Basin
and Waidhoffen/Ybbs)
RESULTS
 Consequence analysis
RESULTS
Damage Index (ID)
(for the winter and
summer seasons) and
Local Index (IL)
assigned to the
attributes of the EaR:
the values are attributed
according to the local
situation in the study
area.
To each attribute of the exposed
elements in the database, a relative
value, called damage index (ID),
reflecting its importance is allocated.
These weights are assigned through
expert knowledge and reflect the
possible losses (costs) if the element
at risk would be destroyed by a
landslide.
Caractéristiques physiques
Type de pont Pont à poutre
Nature des piles Aucune
Nature du tablier Acier
Revêtement Bois
Ouverture totale L (en mètre) 15
Longueur tirant d’air L’ (en mètre) 14
Largeur ouvrage l (en mètre) 4
Hauteur tirant d’air (H, en mètre) 7
Aire du tirant d’air (en gris) (m²) 105
Barcelonnette case study
 Element at risk mapping and characterization
RESULTS
 Element at risk mapping and characterization
RESULTS
 Building time serie analysis from old maps and cadasters
RESULTS
 Building time serie analysis from old maps and cadasters
1830
2004
RESULTS
 Building time serie analysis from old maps and cadasters
Barcelonnette
RESULTS
 Consequence analysis
RESULTS
The development of exposure maps (a) layers of elements at risk (b) susceptibility map (c)
exposure map.
 Consequence analysis
RESULTS
Damages according to land cover in
per cent for Waidhofen/Ybbs
Damaging events according to land cover type related to depth
for Waidhofen/Ybbs
 Consequence analysis
RESULTS
Exposure of building area and farms in per cent for the past and future scenarios.
The results of the analysis for the future exposure for building area and farms show a high increase
in exposure in the last maps for 2100 for all scenarios. The class of very high exposure remains very
low for all scenarios, probably due to certain preconditioning factors e.g. steep slopes. The second
highest class remains below 10% for all scenarios. However a clear increase in exposure is marked
for the class “low”, summing up to more than 30% in the last time step analysed.
 Consequence analysis
Example of result of the ski resort area of Pra-Loup
Puissant, A., Van Den Eeckhaut, M., Malet, J.-P., Hervás, J. (subm). Regional-scale semi-quantitative consequence analysis in the Barcelonnette Region, Southern France. NHESS.
RESULTS
PROGRESS
 Consequence analysis
 Further developments
- Urban building evolution using Geopensim simulation tool
- Consequence mapping with the modelled landcover scenarios
- Cost analysis in progress
quantitative
scenarios
->
meteorological paramater maps
landcover maps
socio-economic trends
landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds
conditionning factors maps
landslide potential consequences maps
landslide costs
landslide risks maps
Indicators: number of ‘unstable’ pixels,
number of pixels affected by runout,
number of potentially affected elements at risk
….  google earth kml. visualization
WORKPACKAGE 5
landslide susceptibility maps (statistical models)
landslide hazard maps (process-based models)
 Indicators of changes: landuse/cover changes
 The proposed indicator has been developed to be enough flexible and generic
to be applied to regions with diverse risk exposure and socio-economic
specificities, and is designed to be independent of the type of landslide causing
the damage.
 The method includes the creation of a detailed geospatial database on
attributes of elements at risk, and an evaluation of the model sensitivity to
changes in the combination of attributes is proposed. Special attention is given
paid to the classification of the potential damage maps. The PDI method allows
calculation of an index for physical injury, structural and functional impacts and
socio-economic impacts.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Potential Damage Index map produced for the winter season
for the centre of Barcelonnette and the housing of Le Bérard at
Faucon-de-Barcelonnette:
a1. DPI map for Barcelonnette
a2. DPI map for Faucon-de-Barcelonnette
b1. DSF map for Barcelonnette
b2. DSF map for Faucon-de-Barcelonnette
c1. DCE map for Barcelonnette
c2. DCE map for Faucon-de-Barcelonnette
d1. PDI map for Barcelonnette
d2. PDI map for Faucon-de-Barcelonnette.
 The indicator maps (i.e. DPI, DSF, DSE and PDI) can be
used for purposes such as landuse planning and
emergency management decision-making in terms of
risk reduction. The method has been elaborated
through discussion with various categories of
stakeholders (local authorities, risk planners) in the
study area, and other stakeholders (rescue teams,
individuals and insurance companies) may have interest
in consulting and using such type of maps with a
straightforward and easily understandable information.
 Indicators of changes: landuse/cover changes
 Indicators of changes: hydro-climatic
 Accurate mass movement rainfall thresholds estimates are one of the most
important prerequisite in most landslide hazard assessments. In a general way,
definition of hydro-climatic indicators of change is much more difficult to
assess than the indicators of changes associated to landuse/cover changes for
different reasons. For instance, the climatic settings are much more varying than
the landuse/cover characteristics in space and in time. Moreover, these
variations are not always well recorded due to a lack of climatic stations at the
highest parts/stretches of the study areas.
 Another problem is the great heterogeneity of climatic datasets, either for ‘real’
observations (raingauges, radar, etc.) than for Climate Change modelling
simulations results (spatial scale varies from 100 to 102 km²). Of course many
techniques allow to link and merge these data, but the uncertainties are still too
severe. It is still not possible to use them as potential indicators.
RESULTS
Nevertheless, some interesting results have been found out during the project. The study
conducted within the Barcelonnette basin defines rainfall patterns associated to fast-
gravitational movement (e.g. debris flows) and slow-gravitational movement (e.g.
mudslides):
1. At the monthly scale, a clear distinction can be observed for debris flows (strong
storm associated to a 7-day dry period) and mudslide (at least 40 mm of antecedent
precipitation during the last 7 days and at least 200 mm during the last 180 days)
2. At the daily scale, the correlation between events and the rainfall of the triggering
date is quite good, no threshold can be established due to the inaccurate knowledge
on rainfall variability (e.g. the upper part of the hillslopes)
3. At the hourly scale, debris flows triggering is associated to relatively short and intense
summer thunderstorms while mudslides are associated to longer rainfall sequences
exhibiting low average and peak intensities.
This work is being continued in order to define potential indicators for the
Waidhofen/Ybbs study area.
 Indicators of changes: hydro-climatic
RESULTS
PROGRESS
 Indicators of changes: hydro-climatic
 Indicators of changes: Geovisualization
 For the study area Waidhofen/Ybbs it is was not possible to implement a
demonstration platform due to data usage restrictions. This was agreed on in
the project meeting in Vienna, June 2011 with the consortium. However UNIVIE
was regularly involved in the development of the demonstration platform
Barcelon@.
 Barcelon@ is a WebGIS application based on open source standards. It supplies
a system to decrease the disparity between scientific results and stakeholders’
practical needs (simple interface, easy-to-use buttons in a generally user-
friendly approach). Secondly the wide collection of assorted information (e.g.
landslide controlling factors, susceptibility maps, information on elements at risk
and their vulnerability, administrative data) and the data comparison can offer a
feasible support in the decision-making process.
 The application is based on different levels of access (citizens or end-users) and
completely supports Geo Web Services (useful for external connections).
RESULTS
RESULTS
 Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
 Data Storage. A huge amount of data is achieved.
Resample, compression and clipping (based on
municipality level) of every layers arranged a
homogeneous geo-database all over the entire
Basin
RESULTS
 Cartoserver frame. Data collected are
transferred inside a mapfile (mrisk.map). The
aim is to fix classification, transparency, location
and visual rules of all the dataset. Thus the
spatial geoinformation is adapted in framework
standards
 Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
RESULTS
 Cartoclient frame. Every client request is
standardized. The plugins to export information
(PDF, CSV files, layout template) and final
browser visualization are managed here. The
web services guarantee connection with
Cartoserver for every front-end request by users
 Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
PROGRESS
 The database gathers information from different institutes and agencies, but it is
standardized for scale, classification and resolution. Thus user can have a
homogenous “state of art” of all the available information necessary in risk
management, considering the original accuracy of dataset involved. Different
tasks are available inside Barcelon@ considering geo-spatial tools and all
information covering the study area. The criteria to create different clusters
supply the proof of scientific results performed and the state-of-art about
knowledge on natural events
 The wide collection of assorted information and the data comparison offers a
great support in the decision-making process. CartoWeb is the open source
type of platform selected for the task. It is a comprehensive and ready-to-use
WebGIS and supplies advanced development. The architecture of the service is
totally customized through visualization needs and the task of the research
 The service is currently under test and will be online by end 2013
 Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
C1 C2 C3 C4
H1 R0 R0 R1 R2
H2 R0 R1 R2 R3
H3 R1 R2 R3 R3
H4 R1 R2 R3 R3
Consequences
Hazard
4 risk classes:
R1: Null; R2: Low; R3: Moderate; R4: High
PROGRESS
PROGRESS
 Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
Thank you for your attention!

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ChangingRISKS - changing pattern of landslide risks as response to global changes in mountain areas

  • 1. University of Vienna, Austria – T. Glade, C. Promper, H. Petschko CNRS, Strasbourg, France – J.-P. Malet, A. Remaître, A. Puissant CSIC, Zaragoza, Spain – S. Bégueria, G. Sanchez, R. Serrano Final Meeting, 26-27 September 2013, Barcelona : changing pattern of landslide risks as a response to global changes in mountain areas
  • 2. KEY RESEARCH QUESTION  Can we identify changes in landslide hazard (susceptibility, frequency, magnitude) and landslide risks (vulnerability, costs) associated to climate and landuse change scenarios?  What indicators to express these possible changes? (modified from Glade & Crozier, 2005)
  • 3. CONCEPT AND METHODOLOGY  Definition of time series & maps of actual/changing predisposing/triggering factors  Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide hazard maps
  • 4.  Definition of ‘changed’ maps of landcover and socio-economic factors  Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide risks maps CONCEPT AND METHODOLOGY  Definition of time series & maps of actual/changing predisposing/triggering factors  Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide hazard maps
  • 5. STAKEHOLDERS Indicators of changes Maps CONCEPT AND METHODOLOGY  Definition of ‘changed’ maps of landcover and socio-economic factors  Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide risks maps  Definition of time series & maps of actual/changing predisposing/triggering factors  Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide hazard maps
  • 6. METHOD  Comparative analysis of 2 study areas with different environmental conditions and different exposures to landslide risks Stakeholder: Geological Survey & Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Division of the Federal Government of Lower Austria Stakeholder: Service de Restauration des Terrains en Montagne
  • 7. WAIDHOFFEN AN DER YBBS, LOWER AUSTRIA  Landslides and damages Mudflows Shallow slides
  • 8. BARCELONNETTE, SOUTH FRENCH ALPS  Landslides and damages Faucon, 1996La Valette Large mudslides Debris flows Faucon, 2003
  • 9. PROJECT ORGANIZATION: TASKS Flowchart of project tasks Hazard analysis (Starwars, Probstab MassMove) Landslide inventories Observed probability of occurrence Magnitude-frequency relationships Susceptibility analysis (multivariate modelling) local scale / hot-spot (e.g. 1:5000 – 1:2000) regional scale (e.g. 1:25.000 – 1:10.000) Scale of analysis
  • 10. landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds conditionning factors maps WORKPACKAGE 1 Cepeda & Devoli (2008) Montgomery D R et al. Geology 2000;28:311-314 Landslide: Geomorphologic mapping, aerial photo-interpretation, historical archives, etc. Climate: Synoptic analysis, rainfall antecedent condition, rainfall thresholds (mean & peak intensities), etc. Landcover: Landcover mapping at different dates (from 1956 to present) using historical archives and aerial photograph TECHNIQUES
  • 11. RESULTS  Landslide inventory maps Barcelonnette: - high number of fast-moving landslides (south-facing slope) - large slow-moving slides with fluidization (black marls outcrops) - many slow moving roto-translational slides (moraine deposits) - more than 200 landslide events for the period 1950-2011  update for temporal assessment (PhD. R. Schlögel) Barcelonnette – point data: 1740 - 2010 Barcelonnette – polygon data: aerial photo-interpretation
  • 12. RESULTS  Landslide inventory maps Waidhofen/Ybbs:  more than 650 landslide events for the period 1950-2012 (using orthophotographs interpretation : 1962, 1979, 1988 and ALS inventory)  >80% of the events were slides  update for temporal assessment (PhD. C. Promper) Waidhofen/Ybbs – point data: 1950 - 2012 0 5 10 15 20 25 Landslidesaccordingtoarea(%) square meters 200m² classes 1000m² classes >600m² class
  • 13.  Climate classification: analysis of synoptic weather situations  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS (1) polar air-mass penetrating through the Mediterranean sea (P med) (2) polar air-mass penetrating through the Atlantic ocean or the North sea (Pm) (3) degraded polar air-mass penetrating through the Atlantic ocean or the North sea (Pm d) (4) tropical air-mass penetrating through the Mediterranean sea (T med) (5) tropical air-mass penetrating through the Atlantic ocean (Tm) (6) continental tropical air-mass (T cont)
  • 14.  Climate classification: analysis of synoptic weather situations  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS When the air mass is crossing the Mediterranean see (P med or T med), most of the events corresponds to debris flows (24 cases out of 32). This must be put in relation with the occurrence of strong and fast thunderstorm in summer
  • 15.  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS There are no specific relationship between the occurrence of slow- moving landslide and a specific air mass type. Nevertheless for a specific type (Pm), 90% of the events are slow-moving landslides. This can be put in relation with the seasonal frequency of such air-masses type in the South French Alps. Indeed, most of these air masses are crossing the study area in Winter or early Spring.  Climate classification: analysis of synoptic weather situations
  • 16.  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS  Rainfall patterns: antecedent cumulative rainfalls and seasonal patterns Waidhofen/Ybbs Barcelonnette
  • 17.  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS  Rainfall patterns: daily rainfall •Type A: this situation is characterized by heavy daily rainfall following a 30-days dry period. For most of the observed events, this climate situation corresponds to violent generalized summer storms •Type B: this situation exhibits the same pattern as Type A except that the rainfall event has been recorded in a single rain gauge as the other rain gauges have recorded nothing or just a small amount of precipitation. In this case, the convective summer storm is localized in a small area (typically a single crest) •Type C: this situation is characterized by heavy cumulative rainfall distributed over a very rainy period of 30 days. This climate situation characterizes either the progressive saturation of the topsoil, the rising of a permanent groundwater table and the build-up of positive pore pressures. •Type D: this situation characterizes absence of rainfall events for a given day of occurrence of a landslides or a debris-flow event. This can be related to two main explanations: (a) the triggering is due to a rapid snow melt without any liquid rain, (b) the rainfall occurs as a localized hailstorm not recorded by the rainfall station.
  • 18. Daily rainfall vs mass movement: probabilities of mass m. occurrence for daily rainfall categories…  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS  Rainfall patterns: daily rainfall
  • 19. Calculations based on the antecedent daily rainfall model (Crozier & Eyles 1980; extended by Glade et al., 2000) The decay of antecedent conditions is based on hydrology data, which represent the drainage of a given catchment  Rainfall thresholds: antecedent rainfall approach  Landslide triggering factors analysis Certainty No landslide Landslide not certain Landslide certain DailyPrecipitationinmm [10 Days] -> Differences between winter and summer months -> Winter: Less daily precipitation required to trigger landslides -> Generally: Precipitation on the day of occurrence is much more important than the previous antecedent rainfall -> Landslide triggering rainfall events occurred mostly in summer when events with relatively high precipitation of continental depressions occur. Wallner S. (2012) Niederschlagsschwellenwerte für die Auslösung von Hangrutschungen – in progress RESULTS
  • 20. Calculations based on the rainfall intensity threshold method (Caine, 1980; Montgomery et al., 2000) The rainfall intensity is based on the total amount of rainfall for a given duration (1h; 2h; 6h; 12h; 24h), which may trigger or reactivate a landslide  Rainfall thresholds: intensity-duration approach  Landslide triggering factors analysis Peak intensity associated to debris flows and mudslides triggering -> Events characterized by high rainfall intensity and short episode duration (i.e. mostly the result of localized convective storms) will trigger mostly debris flows and shallow slides in relatively permeable soils (e.g. moraines, scree slopes or poorly sorted slope deposits). -> Long rainfall periods characterized by low to moderate average and peak rainfall intensity (i.e. the result of multiple and successive storms during a period of several weeks or months) can trigger or reactivate shallow and deep-seated mudslides in low permeability soils and rocks (e.g., black marls, clay-rich material). RESULTS
  • 21.  Rainfall thresholds: intensity-duration approach  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS 10 1 10 0 10 1 10 0 Duration (h) Intensity (mm/h) A 14d (mm) Generalization of I-D model   DAI n ][ 2 1 where: I, D and  as in ID model An: antecedent n-day precipitation (mm) 1 and 2: constants of the model Cepeda, Nadim, Høeg & Elverhøi (2009)
  • 22.  Rainfall thresholds: intensity-duration approach  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS 10 1 10 0 10 1 10 0 Duration (h) Intensity (mm/h) A 23d (mm) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 logD logI 0 = 7.75787+-3.37368 logD+-12.2519 logI No debris flow Debris flow 5163.16788.0 232.181   DAI d 275.0 297.4   DI for debris flows, a traditional ID threshold is sufficient + triggering rainfall 1 to 9 hrs + no need of antecedent rain for slides, an improved performance is achieved with the IAD model + triggering rainfall 3 to 17 hrs + need of antecedent rain of 50 days
  • 23. meteorological paramater maps landcover maps landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds conditionning factors maps 1897 2003 quantitative scenarios -> WORKPACKAGE 2 Climate: Use of downscaled times series from Newtech (Max-Planck-IM), Gach2c (Meteo-France) & SafeLand (CMCC S.c.a.r.l) projects 1970-2000 / 2070-2100 Landcover: DYNA-CLUE model scenarios TECHNIQUES
  • 24.  Climate modelling Dataset: station (observed) data • Network of six meteo stations with daily precipitation data in the Barcelonnette area • Summer Pndq0.9 computed for each station • Gridded data, 0.035º resolution (aprox. 4 km) • Model CMCC-CM1 (downscaling driven by ECHAM4-REMO GCM/RCM) • Radiative / emmission scenarios: CMIP5 (control), RCP4.5/RCP8.5 (future) • Periods: reference (1965–2000) and future (2001–2050) Dataset: GCM data 1. Scoccimarro E., S. Gualdi, A. Bellucci, A. Sanna, P.G. Fogli, E. Manzini, M. Vichi, P. Oddo, and A. Navarra, 2011: Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Ocean Heat Transport in a High Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model. Journal of Climate, 24, 4368-4384. Example: precipitation field in Barcelonnette of 1st January 1965 RESULTS
  • 25. 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 1000,0 1200,0 XX71 XX72 XX73 XX74 XX75 XX76 XX77 XX78 XX79 XX80 XX81 XX82 XX83 XX84 XX85 XX86 XX87 XX88 XX89 XX90 XX91 XX92 XX93 XX94 XX95 XX96 XX97 XX98 XX99 XX00 Yearlyrainfall(mm) Yearly rainfall (2071-2100) Yearly rainfall (1971-2000) Moving average 5 yrs (2071-2100) Moving average 5 yrs (1971-2000)  Climate modelling Example of meteorological parameter database: yearly rainfall at the Barcelonnette station for the past (1971-2000) and the future (2071-2100)  Creation of parameter maps relevant for landslide triggering Parameter 1: 90th percentile of maximum n-days summer precipitation (Pndq0.9, 1 ≤ n ≤ 10) • Most landslides are related to intense summer (JJA) rainfall episodes lasting for several days. •The 90th percentile is the extreme event associated to a recurrence period of 10 years, which seems appropriate for landslide occurrence. •Creation of maps of summer Pndq0.9 precipitation for the actual and future periods. RESULTS
  • 26. Map of summer P10dq0.9 • Good relationship with elevation (p-value = 0.00977, r2 = 0.84) • OLS regression with elevation as covariate. Map of summer P10dq0.9 for the reference period based on station-data Regression between summer P10dq0.9 and elevation  Climate modelling RESULTS
  • 27. Extrapolating to future scenario • Maps of P10dq0.9 were computed from GCM data for ref. and future periods. • Ratio between future and reference periods was used for extrapolating station-based P10dq0.9 map to future. Map of summer P10dq0.9 for the future period based on station-data and GCM projected change Ratio between future and reference summer P10dq0.9 based on GCM data: cyan = increase, magenta = decrease  Climate modelling RESULTS
  • 30.  Landcover modelling: observed frequency of changes Density of observed changes RESULTS
  • 31.  Landcover modelling: observed frequency of changes Scenario-based approach (e.g. PRUDENCE) A: Agriculture B: Tourism C: Environmental awareness D. Natural hazard Simplified spider diagram of changing scenarios, and identification of key factors RESULTS
  • 32.  Landcover modelling: DYNA-CLUE model (logistic regression) Conversion matrix Scenario 1 – Environmental protection: assumption of landcover changes RESULTS
  • 33. Scenario 1: Environmental protection (2010/2100)  Landcover modelling RESULTS
  • 34. Scenario 2: Tourism activity increase (2010/2100)  Landcover modelling RESULTS
  • 35. Scenario 3: Agriculture increase (2010/2100)  Landcover modelling RESULTS
  • 36. Scenario 4: Increase in landslide hazards (2010/2100)  Landcover modelling RESULTS
  • 37.  Landcover modelling RESULTS Waidhofen/Ybbs There is a steady increase in building area and streets. The land cover types grassland and forest, which make up the largest part of the study area, show fluctuation over the analysis time. Arable land, acreage, makes up a very small part and is also highly fluctuating. The main driving forces of change, economy, population, tourism and transport increase within scenario 4 . In both maps it is clearly indicated that an increase in population drives building area, especially in the southern valleys. From 2030 to 2100 a major increase in forest areas is shown.
  • 38. Translational slide Rotational slide landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds conditionning factors maps landslide susceptibility maps (statistical models) landslide hazard maps (process-based models) WORKPACKAGE 3 meteorological paramater maps landcover maps quantitative scenarios -> Susceptibility analysis: Multivariate modelling Introduction of new parameter maps Hazard analysis: Modelling chain Starwxars-Probstab- MassMove TECHNIQUES
  • 39.  Susceptibility modelling Integration of climate parameter maps (actual, future) and landcover maps (actual, future) in a multivariate model  e.g. MSc thesis: A. Schmidt  Hazard modelling Development of processing chain of process-based models: Starwars – ProbStab – MassMove/SlowMove (van Beek, 2002; Malet et al. 2005; Remaitre et al., 2008; Begueria et al., 2009 STARWARS PROBSTAB FOSM approach - pix. Fs <1 - 3 scen. for depth - possibly other .. MassMov SlowMov FOSM approach triggers slope stability Prob. of parameter 1, 2, 3 fast-moving flows FOSM approach slow-moving slides Prob. of parameter 1, 2, 3 Methodology RESULTS
  • 40.  Susceptibility modelling RESULTS Waidhofen/Ybbs The map represents the susceptibility map of 2005 and shows the results of the regression model. The southern slopes and the Flyschzone in the central part show the highest susceptible areas for all scenarios. In the south river channels are higher susceptible than neighbouring areas and as well as similar areas in the north. In the north a thin net of low susceptibility is within a wider area with higher susceptibility. This represents the roads, which did not have any landslides in the sampling data set.
  • 41.  Susceptibility modelling RESULTS The results show the distribution of the susceptibility classes in the different scenarios and the backward modelling. A tendency towards an increasing value in the highest two susceptibility classes can be observed. However this trend is not continuing over all time periods. This trend is much stronger from 2050 to 2100 than for the first future period analysed. The modelling backward shows also an increasing susceptibility in the highest class in 1962 but the lowest class decreased not as strong as in the 100 year scenarios.
  • 44. Richards equation Transient simulations  Starwars: slope hydrology (van Beek, 2002; Malet et al., 2005, … and others)  Core model pi w *w rwi )z(k g kq     • Generalized Darcy’s law for saturated & unsaturated medium t n t n t )n(         • Continuity equation t W z h )(k zy h )(k yx h )(k x                                    • Richards diffusivity equation  Additional capabilities • dual porosity (fissure flow, matrix flow) • lateral inputs: Qlat = f(t) • snow cover formation and snow melting • topographic control: altitude on rainfall temperature slope gradient on radiation • vegetation (canopy interception, transpiration) RESULTS
  • 45. • Initial conditions: moisture content and groundwater level = 25 years of time series • Parameter optimisation (Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm, Pest software): mean observed data +- 20% • calibration on 2 piezometers with continuous recording + 10 piezometers with punctual measurements  Starwars: slope hydrology (van Beek, 2002; Malet et al., 2005, … and others)  Application to real data: Super-Sauze landslide RESULTS
  • 46. + 7 m + 6 m + 5 m + 4 m + 3 m + 2 m + 1 m 0 m 1 map per month (june 2000 – may 2001)  Highest ground water levels: - in the main central gully (convergence of flux lines) - in the ablation zone of the earthflow (also the zone with the highest velocities)  Starwars: slope hydrology (van Beek, 2002; Malet et al., 2005, … and others)  Application to real data: Super-Sauze landslide RESULTS
  • 47.  ProbStab: slope stability (van Beek, 2002; Malet, 2003, Malet et al., 2007) Richards equation Transient simulations • Mohr-Coulomb constitutive equation (c- and f- parameters) • Bishop or Janbu solution • Circular or non circular slip search (minimum FOS) through a grid search specification utility function  Volume of released material  Probabilities of release RESULTS
  • 48. • Rainfall: 50 mm in 70h • 6-years return period • FOS • Observed/simulated GWLs • GEV & observed event  volumes  Application to real data: Super-Sauze landslide; main failure in May 1999  ProbStab: slope stability (van Beek, 2002; Malet, 2003, Malet et al., 2007) RESULTS
  • 49.  MassMov: mass flow kinematics (Begueria et al., 2009) Assumptions: - Saint-Venant equation (shallow water approximation) - One-phase flow - Depth-integrated solution Mass and momentum conservation: Rheology: - Viscous fluid (Bingham, Couloimb-viscous, Hershel-Bulkley) - Frictional (pure Coulomb, Voellmy) RESULTS
  • 50.  MassMov: mass flow kinematics (Begueria et al., 2009)  Application to synthetic cases Simulation of the propagation of a slurry wave over an idealized fan topography. An inlet area of five pixels was defined at the upper part of the fan, which represents the conextion with an upstream torrent. A constant input rate of 80 cm of mud flow was applied at the inlet during the first 20 seconds. The panels show the thickness of the flow at times t = 5, 20, 35 and 50 s, in m. Propagation of a mud flow slurry on a channel. The input hydrograph had a triangular shape, raising from 0.65 m to 0.85 m at 25 seconds and then falling to 0 m at 30 seconds. The panels show the flow thickness at times t = 15, 30, 45 and 60 seconds. Simulation of the interaction between a mudflow and a rigid obstacle over a slope. Color scale: flow depth (m). RESULTS
  • 51.  Hazard assessment through modelling Estimation of probabilities of failure, runout distances and magnitude parameters (velocity, impact forces, thickness) through Monte-Carlo simulations RESULTS
  • 52. quantitative scenarios -> meteorological paramater maps landcover maps socio-economic trends landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds conditionning factors maps landslide potential consequence maps landslide costs landslide risk maps WORKPACKAGE 4 landslide susceptibility maps (statistical models) landslide hazard maps (process-based models)
  • 53.  Consequence analysis Schematic overview of the semi-quantitative Potential Damage Index method developed to estimate consequences at a regional scale. (methodology of Puissant et al. (2005) applied to the whole Barcelonnette Basin and Waidhoffen/Ybbs) RESULTS
  • 54.  Consequence analysis RESULTS Damage Index (ID) (for the winter and summer seasons) and Local Index (IL) assigned to the attributes of the EaR: the values are attributed according to the local situation in the study area. To each attribute of the exposed elements in the database, a relative value, called damage index (ID), reflecting its importance is allocated. These weights are assigned through expert knowledge and reflect the possible losses (costs) if the element at risk would be destroyed by a landslide.
  • 55. Caractéristiques physiques Type de pont Pont à poutre Nature des piles Aucune Nature du tablier Acier Revêtement Bois Ouverture totale L (en mètre) 15 Longueur tirant d’air L’ (en mètre) 14 Largeur ouvrage l (en mètre) 4 Hauteur tirant d’air (H, en mètre) 7 Aire du tirant d’air (en gris) (m²) 105 Barcelonnette case study  Element at risk mapping and characterization RESULTS
  • 56.  Element at risk mapping and characterization RESULTS
  • 57.  Building time serie analysis from old maps and cadasters RESULTS
  • 58.  Building time serie analysis from old maps and cadasters 1830 2004 RESULTS
  • 59.  Building time serie analysis from old maps and cadasters Barcelonnette RESULTS
  • 60.  Consequence analysis RESULTS The development of exposure maps (a) layers of elements at risk (b) susceptibility map (c) exposure map.
  • 61.  Consequence analysis RESULTS Damages according to land cover in per cent for Waidhofen/Ybbs Damaging events according to land cover type related to depth for Waidhofen/Ybbs
  • 62.  Consequence analysis RESULTS Exposure of building area and farms in per cent for the past and future scenarios. The results of the analysis for the future exposure for building area and farms show a high increase in exposure in the last maps for 2100 for all scenarios. The class of very high exposure remains very low for all scenarios, probably due to certain preconditioning factors e.g. steep slopes. The second highest class remains below 10% for all scenarios. However a clear increase in exposure is marked for the class “low”, summing up to more than 30% in the last time step analysed.
  • 63.  Consequence analysis Example of result of the ski resort area of Pra-Loup Puissant, A., Van Den Eeckhaut, M., Malet, J.-P., Hervás, J. (subm). Regional-scale semi-quantitative consequence analysis in the Barcelonnette Region, Southern France. NHESS. RESULTS
  • 64. PROGRESS  Consequence analysis  Further developments - Urban building evolution using Geopensim simulation tool - Consequence mapping with the modelled landcover scenarios - Cost analysis in progress
  • 65. quantitative scenarios -> meteorological paramater maps landcover maps socio-economic trends landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds conditionning factors maps landslide potential consequences maps landslide costs landslide risks maps Indicators: number of ‘unstable’ pixels, number of pixels affected by runout, number of potentially affected elements at risk ….  google earth kml. visualization WORKPACKAGE 5 landslide susceptibility maps (statistical models) landslide hazard maps (process-based models)
  • 66.  Indicators of changes: landuse/cover changes  The proposed indicator has been developed to be enough flexible and generic to be applied to regions with diverse risk exposure and socio-economic specificities, and is designed to be independent of the type of landslide causing the damage.  The method includes the creation of a detailed geospatial database on attributes of elements at risk, and an evaluation of the model sensitivity to changes in the combination of attributes is proposed. Special attention is given paid to the classification of the potential damage maps. The PDI method allows calculation of an index for physical injury, structural and functional impacts and socio-economic impacts. RESULTS
  • 67. RESULTS Potential Damage Index map produced for the winter season for the centre of Barcelonnette and the housing of Le Bérard at Faucon-de-Barcelonnette: a1. DPI map for Barcelonnette a2. DPI map for Faucon-de-Barcelonnette b1. DSF map for Barcelonnette b2. DSF map for Faucon-de-Barcelonnette c1. DCE map for Barcelonnette c2. DCE map for Faucon-de-Barcelonnette d1. PDI map for Barcelonnette d2. PDI map for Faucon-de-Barcelonnette.  The indicator maps (i.e. DPI, DSF, DSE and PDI) can be used for purposes such as landuse planning and emergency management decision-making in terms of risk reduction. The method has been elaborated through discussion with various categories of stakeholders (local authorities, risk planners) in the study area, and other stakeholders (rescue teams, individuals and insurance companies) may have interest in consulting and using such type of maps with a straightforward and easily understandable information.  Indicators of changes: landuse/cover changes
  • 68.  Indicators of changes: hydro-climatic  Accurate mass movement rainfall thresholds estimates are one of the most important prerequisite in most landslide hazard assessments. In a general way, definition of hydro-climatic indicators of change is much more difficult to assess than the indicators of changes associated to landuse/cover changes for different reasons. For instance, the climatic settings are much more varying than the landuse/cover characteristics in space and in time. Moreover, these variations are not always well recorded due to a lack of climatic stations at the highest parts/stretches of the study areas.  Another problem is the great heterogeneity of climatic datasets, either for ‘real’ observations (raingauges, radar, etc.) than for Climate Change modelling simulations results (spatial scale varies from 100 to 102 km²). Of course many techniques allow to link and merge these data, but the uncertainties are still too severe. It is still not possible to use them as potential indicators. RESULTS
  • 69. Nevertheless, some interesting results have been found out during the project. The study conducted within the Barcelonnette basin defines rainfall patterns associated to fast- gravitational movement (e.g. debris flows) and slow-gravitational movement (e.g. mudslides): 1. At the monthly scale, a clear distinction can be observed for debris flows (strong storm associated to a 7-day dry period) and mudslide (at least 40 mm of antecedent precipitation during the last 7 days and at least 200 mm during the last 180 days) 2. At the daily scale, the correlation between events and the rainfall of the triggering date is quite good, no threshold can be established due to the inaccurate knowledge on rainfall variability (e.g. the upper part of the hillslopes) 3. At the hourly scale, debris flows triggering is associated to relatively short and intense summer thunderstorms while mudslides are associated to longer rainfall sequences exhibiting low average and peak intensities. This work is being continued in order to define potential indicators for the Waidhofen/Ybbs study area.  Indicators of changes: hydro-climatic RESULTS
  • 70. PROGRESS  Indicators of changes: hydro-climatic
  • 71.  Indicators of changes: Geovisualization  For the study area Waidhofen/Ybbs it is was not possible to implement a demonstration platform due to data usage restrictions. This was agreed on in the project meeting in Vienna, June 2011 with the consortium. However UNIVIE was regularly involved in the development of the demonstration platform Barcelon@.  Barcelon@ is a WebGIS application based on open source standards. It supplies a system to decrease the disparity between scientific results and stakeholders’ practical needs (simple interface, easy-to-use buttons in a generally user- friendly approach). Secondly the wide collection of assorted information (e.g. landslide controlling factors, susceptibility maps, information on elements at risk and their vulnerability, administrative data) and the data comparison can offer a feasible support in the decision-making process.  The application is based on different levels of access (citizens or end-users) and completely supports Geo Web Services (useful for external connections). RESULTS
  • 72. RESULTS  Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization  Data Storage. A huge amount of data is achieved. Resample, compression and clipping (based on municipality level) of every layers arranged a homogeneous geo-database all over the entire Basin
  • 73. RESULTS  Cartoserver frame. Data collected are transferred inside a mapfile (mrisk.map). The aim is to fix classification, transparency, location and visual rules of all the dataset. Thus the spatial geoinformation is adapted in framework standards  Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
  • 74. RESULTS  Cartoclient frame. Every client request is standardized. The plugins to export information (PDF, CSV files, layout template) and final browser visualization are managed here. The web services guarantee connection with Cartoserver for every front-end request by users  Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
  • 75. PROGRESS  The database gathers information from different institutes and agencies, but it is standardized for scale, classification and resolution. Thus user can have a homogenous “state of art” of all the available information necessary in risk management, considering the original accuracy of dataset involved. Different tasks are available inside Barcelon@ considering geo-spatial tools and all information covering the study area. The criteria to create different clusters supply the proof of scientific results performed and the state-of-art about knowledge on natural events  The wide collection of assorted information and the data comparison offers a great support in the decision-making process. CartoWeb is the open source type of platform selected for the task. It is a comprehensive and ready-to-use WebGIS and supplies advanced development. The architecture of the service is totally customized through visualization needs and the task of the research  The service is currently under test and will be online by end 2013  Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
  • 76. C1 C2 C3 C4 H1 R0 R0 R1 R2 H2 R0 R1 R2 R3 H3 R1 R2 R3 R3 H4 R1 R2 R3 R3 Consequences Hazard 4 risk classes: R1: Null; R2: Low; R3: Moderate; R4: High PROGRESS
  • 77. PROGRESS  Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
  • 78. Thank you for your attention!