Vision 2030: how mobile research will fit in for stakeholders across the insights value-chain - Lumi Mobile

JULY 16 - 18, 2013, Minneapolis, USA
WWW.MRMW.NET
The original, premier event
for the Mobile Marketing
Research Industry

WWW.MRMW.NET
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Video:
h)p://youtu.be/pBYIg5dDSY

Overview

Many
predic@ons
surrounding
2030

Mobile
Market
Research
will
be

the
industry
standard

Mobile
Market
Research
will
be

nothing
like
it
is
today

Method

ü  80
qualita@ve
interviews

ü 

Over
12,000
quan@ta@ve
interviews

ü 

Some
desk
research

Qualita@ve
interviews
–
thanks
to:

Covering
every
con,nent

Mixture
of
agency,
Client,
consultancy,
technology

Jamie

Burke

(9010)

Clare
Chul

(Avon)

Isaac

Rogers

(2020)

Peter
Searll

(Dashboard)

Gemma

Stephenson

(AcEve

Group)

Sally

Smallmann

(Diageo)

David

Nelems

(AcEve

Group)

Maarten

Kallenberg

(InsightAsia)

Dave
Lee

(PSL)

Guy

Rolfe

(Kantar)

Kim-‐Fredrik

Schneider

(World

One)

Pravin

Shekar

(Krea)

Birju
Jani

(mrJuncEon)

Andy
Lees

(Lumi

Mobile)

Alistair
Hill

(On
Device)

Mark

Halliday

(Manning

GoRlieb)

David
Newman

(Oxford

University)

Graeme

SparshoR

(McDonald’s)

Ana

Alvarez

(PepsiCo)

Fiona

Blades

(Mesh)

Eric

Grosgogeat

(FocusVision)

James

Burge

(Research

Now)

Arno

Hummerst
on

(GfK)

Marion

Koudenburg

(Heineken)

Joe

Staton

(GfK)

Edward

Appleton

(Avery

Dennison)

Douglas

Hunter

(Google)

Andreiko

Kerdemelidis

(RBS)

Orlando

Hooper-‐
Greenhill

(JWT)

Simon

Falconer

(TNS)

Alex

Johnson

(Kantar)

Lord

Leverhulme

(Unilever)

Helen

Bennie

(Shopper

Insight)

Judith

Passingham

(TNS)

Paul

Roberts

(SPA

Future

Thinking)

Reineke

Reitsma

(Forrester

Research

Alexander

Linder

(Swaeovski)

Joe
Webb

(TNS)

John

Branston

(Research

Partnership)

Robert

Kramer

(TNS)

Aysegul

Ataman

Scharning

(Techneost
rategy)

Ben
Leet

(Usamp)

David

Feick
(T-‐
Mobile)

Ray
Poynter

(Vision

CriEcal)

MarEn

Tomlinson

(Research

Now)

Peter

Teachman

(Millward

Brown)

Ian

McKinnon

(Kantar

Health)

Bob
Dance

(Fresh
Minds)

Jeremy

Carpenter

(Kantar

Mobile)

MC
Lai

(Ipsos)

Phil
Garland

(Survey

Monkey)

Barry
Ooi

(ConversaEo
n
Zone)

Lenny

Murphy

(Greenbook)

Richard

ScionE

(Prophet)

VP,

(Double

Helix)

Roxanna

Strohmenger

(Forrester)

Jan

SchoRelndrei
er
(Cluetec)

Carol
Haney

(Toluna)

Zoe
Dowling

(Added

Value)

Finn
Raben

(ESOMAR)

Steve

August

(RevelaEon)

Robert

Wang

(Morgan

Stanley)

David
Shim

(Placed)

Jayne
Dow

(Fireﬂy)

Alan

Yelsey

(KVS

Studio)

Stuart

Ryder

(Ipsos)

Peter
Kirk

(WorldOne)

Sharon

Hallock

(TNS)

Many
predic@ons
surrounding
2030

Many
predic@ons
surrounding
2030

Ø 
Many
economic
forecasts

Ø 
The
World
is
evolving

Ø 
People
all
around
the
World
expect
signiﬁcant

developments
in
mobile

Rank
Shi5
in
GDP,
by
PPP
$

Rank
2010
2030

1
United
States
China

2
China
United
States

3
Japan
India

4
India
Japan

5
Germany
Russia

6
Russia
Germany

7
UK
Brazil

8
France
UK

9
Brazil
France

10
Italy
Mexico

11
Mexico
South
Korea

12
South
Korea
Indonesia

13
Spain
Italy

14
Canada
Canada

15
Indonesia
Spain

*
Euromonitor
/
GfK

Example:
Are
we
ready
for
1bn
more
China
tourists?

Now
2020e

1.4
bn

390
mn
middle
class

Airports

Hotels

Language

Milk

$95bn
–
2012

Expecta@ons
high

*
Euromonitor
/
GfK

2030

Say
what
you
will
about
Nostradamus
…

OR

Our
research
…

« 

Survey
deployed
using
GMI
/
Lightspeed
and
client
sample

« 

Responses
from
12,000+
people

« 

Over
90%
within
1
day

« 

9000+
images
uploaded

« 

Covered
all
major
regions

«  55%
found
it
‘fun’,
less
than
1%
‘boring’

Big
picture
for
2030

We
will
be
wearing
mobile
devices

« Over
4
out
of
10

expect
the
eyes
to

control
the
device

Richard
ScionR

Devices
may
be

somewhat
funcEon

speciﬁc
but
collecEvely

your
“wearable
network”

will
far
exceed
the

capabiliEes
available
in

today’s
mobile.

«  Wearable
devices
account
for

nearly
2/3
of
peoples
expecta@ons

20%

33%

10%

20%

9%

8%

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%

Smart
phone

Spectacles

Contact
lens

Arm
patch
on
clothes

A
brain
implant

Liquid-‐gel

Even
less
of
a
‘phone’
than
today

E@que)e
and
rule
shi5s

þ  Transport

þ  Family

There
is
a
colleague
of

ours
who
we
refer
to
as

"The
Man
who
isn't
there"

because
he
is
so

connected
to
his
mobile

Judith
Passingham

þ  School

þ  Business

Robot
Wars
or

Robot
Laws?

Alistair
Hill

Mobile
is
cri@cal

World
Bank
Spokesperson

More
people
have

[mobile]
access
to

internet
today
in
Africa

than
they
do
to
clean

water
or
even

sanitaEon.

Digital/Web
is
probably
more

important
than
air
for
many
…

I
think
people
are
probably

learning
more
online
than
in

schools,
teachers
will
probably
be

replaced
by
robots
soon.

MC
Lai

Mobile
is
invisible

We’ll
soon
be
living
in
a
real
life

matrix
–
if
you’re
not
plugged
in

you
will
literally
be
separated
from

the
rest
of
the
world.

Robert
Wang

People
won't
noEce
computers,
in
the
same
way

they
don't
noEce
sheet
metal,
but
they
will
be

everywhere
and
in
everything
from
lightbulbs
to

packets
of
juice,
in
almost
constant
contact
with
us

and
our
environment.

Andreiko
Kerdemeledis

The
internet
will
be

such
an
intrinsic
part
of

every
device
and

interacEon
we
have,

we’ll
stop
even

realizing
it
exists
at
all.

Issac
Rogers

Many
predic@ons
surrounding
2030

Mobile
Market
Research
will
be

the
industry
standard

Mobile
Market
Research
will
be
the
industry
standard

v 

Mobile
will
be
everywhere

v 

Data
will
be
everywhere
and
all-‐encompassing

v 

Some
markets
will
be
mobile
only

v 

The
shape
of
the
MR
industry
will
change

Mobile
everywhere

Andy
Lees

The
best
use
of
mobile
is
preRy
much

everything!
MR
doesn’t
consider

mobile
enough
in
proposals,
because

in
general,
researchers
selling
to

clients
don’t
have
good
enough

knowledge
of
its
capabiliEes
or

limitaEons.

Dave
Lee

There
are
no
businesses
for
whom

mobile
is
not
relevant.
If
you’re
in

business,
you
need
to
be
in
mobile.
And

if
you’re
in
market
research
you
need
to

be
thinking
ahead
of
your
clients.

It’s
not
a
quesEon
of
if

you
add
mobile
to
your

research
mix,
but

when.

Reineke
Reitsma

.

Researchers
seek
to

further
exploit
the
high

penetraEon
of
mobile

phones

ESOMAR
GMR

2012
Report

Therefore
data
everywhere

Data
used
to
be
scarce
–
now

it
is
everywhere
and
more

highly
detailed.

The

challenge
is
to
make
sense
of

it,
numbers,
verbaEms,
rich

media
(audio,
video,
images)

social
impressions,
millions
of

data
points

A
deﬁning
trend
of
the
next
hundred

years
will
be
digital
informaEon
driven

via
mobile
plamorms.
The
deﬁning

technology
for
our
species,
for
the
next

hundred
years,
will
be
mobile…

Lenny
Murphy

Our
connecEon
to
the
digital
world
will
literally

become
a
sixth
sense.
We’ll
be
studying
a
digital

footprint
of
consumers,
rather
than
relying
on

reported
behavior

Isaac
Rogers

David
Nelems

Some
markets
will
be
mobile
only

Aysegul
Ataman
Scharning

Mobile
is
just
another

channel...unless
you

live
in
Africa
-‐
then
its

the
ONLY
channel.

Peter
Searll

Emerging
markets
will
be
the
focus
while
more
and

more
market
research
will
be
conducted
about
Asia.

Mobile
surveys
will
be
adopted
more
easily
than
any

other
tool
in
market
research.

In
a
place
like
Nigeria

if
it's
not
face
to
face

it'll
be
straight
to

mobile.

Debbie
Pruent

But
who
will
lead?

The
US
market
is
more
ahead
of
the

curve
than
most;
at
least
in
my

industry,
there
is
more
opportunity

for
virtual
research
in
the
US
than
in,

for
instance
Japan,
which
can
be

extremely
restricEve
with
privacy
laws

and
what
can
be
done.

VP,
Double
Helix

Lenny
Murphy

APAC
will
probably
lead
in
some
of
the

more
advanced,
early
applicaEons
of

mobile
due
to
their
cultural
fascinaEon

with
technology,
manufacturing

capacity
of
low
cost
devices
and
robust

infrastructure.
On
the
other
hand,
the

US
will
lead
the
market
from
a

business
perspecEve,
with
the
rest
of

the
world
following
on
quickly.

The
industry
reports
will
show
a
diﬀerent
landscape

33.5

<0.1

Non
Mobile

Research

Mobile

Research

33.5

Non
Mobile

Research

Mobile

Research

**
Up
to

$300bn

*
Es@mates
in
$bn

**
Based
on
qualita@ve
discussions
with
industry
leaders

2012
2030

Many
predic@ons
surrounding
2030

Mobile
Market
Research
will
be

the
industry
standard

Mobile
Market
Research
will
be

nothing
like
it
is
today

Mobile
Market
Research
will
be
nothing
like
it
is
today

Ø 

The
impact
of
mobile
is
colossal

Ø 

Diﬀerent
data
needs
a
diﬀerent
approach

Ø 

New
research
models
will
evolve

Ø  Debriefs
and
outputs
will
be
more
dynamic

Ø  Need
to
embrace
change

Ø 

Implica@ons
for
us
all

Colossal
Impact

BULLDOZER…..that’s
what
will
be

the
eﬀect
of
mobile
in
MR.

A
typical
MR
project
will
be
in
the
DIY

mold
where
the
power
is
in
the
hands

of
the
one
who
needs
answers.

Biz
and
MR
is
going
to
change.

And
mobile
in
MR
is
NOT
just
survey

apps
and
the
like.
We
need
to
have
a

blinders-‐oﬀ
approach.

Pravin
Shekar

Back
to
Nostradamus

MR
as
we
know
it
today

will
not
exist
in
2030.

Data
capture
replaces
Data

collecEon.

Synthesizing

“Why”
quesEons
into
people’s

consumer
experience
will

replace
the
tradiEonal

quesEonnaire.

Go
mobile
or
go
home.

There
is
a
healthy
and
exciEng

future
for
market
research
albeit

one
where
disrupEon
will

fundamentally
change
the
nature

of
our
business.

The
current
business
model

of
market
research
is
not

sustainable
with
this
level
of

technological
disrupEon

Lenny
Murphy

I
don't
think
the
current
model
in

many
agencies
is
sustainable
unless

they
can
use
AI
to
do
the
analysis
and

outsourcing
can
be
problemaEc

Graeme
Sparshob

Colin
Strong

Richard
ScionR

Diﬀerent
data
sources
need
a
diﬀerent
approach

The
way
we
get
an
answer
to

a
quesEon
will
change.
Small

clumps
of
informaEon
coming

from
diverse
set
of
sources.

A
huge
thing
that
researchers

will
need
to
do
in
the
future
is

leqng
go
of
consistency.

Alex
Johnson

Challenge
the
exisEng

measures
of
the
industry.
As

lifestyles
change
in
response

to
technology,
the
research

industry
needs
to
ensure
they

are
measuring
the
right

things.

Graeme
Sparshob

Constant
data
stream
=
new
skills
and
players

People
are
increasingly
willing
to
openly

provide
detailed
self
proﬁling,
life-‐streaming

around
consumpEon
habits,
moods
and
emoEons

as
well
as
desires
and
needs.

With
such
a
mass
of
highly
individuated
data,

market
research
is
going
to
have
to
get
serious

about
building
systems
that
can
handle
big
data.
So

the
only
players

that
can
win
in
the
long
game
are

IT
companies
that
borrow
research

know-‐how
to
build
the
algorithms.

Jamie
Burke

The
School
of
Hard
Knocks

CEOs
and
companies
should

LISTEN.
ADAPT.
EXPERIMENT.

EXPAND.

à
REPEAT.

à RAPIDLY.

Pravin
Shekar

Test,
and
learn.

80%
or

indeed
70%
today
is
more

than
good
enough
in

many
scenarios
rather

than
waiEng
for
100%

tomorrow.

Jayne
Dow

Give
your
people
permission
to
fail
–

that’s
the
only
way
they
will
be
able

and
willing
to
try
new
things.

Simon
Falconer

Agency
role
is
more
speciﬁc

You
need
an
agency
to
be
concise

in
the
collecEon
and
insighmul
in

the
delivery
–
combining
data

collecEon
with
consultancy
–
out

of
necessity
rather
than
just
trying

to
move
up
the
value
chain
or

make
ourselves
feel
important.

Two
agencies
or
one?

Arno
Hummerston

There
is
a
divide
of

research
skills
-‐
skilled
in

data
collecEon
and
then

ﬁguring
out
what’s

appropriate
and
useful,

and
when.

Robert
Kramer

And
so
are
people

Humans
are
inconsistent,

slow
and
expensive
–

technology
is
not

Ray
Poynter

If
we
don't
have
a
clear
vision

for
our
future
role
and
where

we
are
headed
as
an
industry

we
will
struggle
to
recruit
and

train
our
future
leaders
and

innovators.

James
Burge

Debriefs
are
not
a
single
event

Edward
Appleton

Data
becomes
stale
very

quickly.
InnovaEons
that
allow

real-‐Eme
analysis
to
form

acEonable
insight
will
emerge.

Fast
Data
will
be
an

organisaEon’s
lifeblood.
Ignore

the
Fast
Data
and
you
lose

your
edge.

Andreiko
Kerdemeledis

Debriefs
can
encourage

conservaEve
thinking.

Insights
become
powerful,

acted
upon,
through
an

ongoing
dialogue.
Business

challenges
constantly

change.

The
horse
has
already
bolted

The
scary
part
is
that
most
of
this
Iron-‐man
like

technology
already
exists,
its
just
not
quite
been

put
together
in
the
right
package
(or
in
the
right

size)
to
make
it
work…

we
just
need
to
see
a
consolidaEon
around
key

services,
key
providers,
and
a
bringing
together
of

what
already
exists,
along
with
an
industry
that’s

open
enough
to
accept
the
new.

Joe
Webb

It
won’t
be
easy.
Many
challenges
ahead

Connec@ng
with
people
will
be
harder

MarkeEng
becomes
easier
in
10
years.

Fewer
channels
to
cover,
and
a
more

direct
connecEon
to
the
consumer

wherever
they
are,
marketers
have
an

easier
Eme
finding
their
consumers.

The
struggle
will
be
to
make
a
connecEon

with
that
consumer.

We’ll
be
beRer
at

digesEng
new
informaEon
and
more

overall
content,
it’ll
be
harder
to
deliver
a

markeEng
message
that
isn’t
directly

targeted
at
the
specific
consumer.

In
a

way,
the
consumer
is
easier
to
find

but
harder
to
touch.

Isaac
Rogers

We’ll
shiv
from
casEng

wide
nets
to
very
narrow

ones
–
because
[today]

there’s
a
lot
of
noise
and
a

lot
of
waste
–
so
imagine
a

place
where
there’s
a
lot

less
guessing
–
and
a
lot

more
of
a
direct

relaEonship
between
the

individual
and
adverEsing,

buying,
selling
…

Phil
Garland

Control
of
your
own
data

This
move
towards
so
called
big

data
will
lead
to,
under
data

protecEon
legislaEon,
the
user

taking
a
more
proacEve
role
in

managing
their
own
data.
Trade

your
own
data
for
rewards,
be

provided
with
rewards
based
on

the
data
proﬁles
you
upload.

Paul
Roberts

Market
research
will

specialize
in
meaningful

exchanges
with

consumers.
This
access

will
most
likely
come
at
a

high
price
as
consumers

begin
to
see
the
value
in

their
opinion
and

personal
data.

Josephine
Hansom

Dealing
with
the
data

When
it
comes
to
the
future
of
big

data,
we
need
a
reciprocal
give
and

take
with
the
consumer
–
right
now

the
value
exchange
is
not
clear.

.

David
Shim

Bob
Dance

Jan
Schobelndreier

I
think/hope
there
will
be
beRer

handle
on
the
‘big
data’
topic
…
adding

another
17
years
with
lots
of
new
cool

web
informaEon
and
other
services,

there
will
be
huge
amounts
of
data
…

someone
needs
to
sort
it
out
and

make
sense
of
it…

So
the
advent
of
personalised

informaEon
requires
us
to
rethink
our

modus
operandi
…
We
will
need
to

change
from
being
providers
of
non

intervenEonist
data
interpretaEon
to

a
more
direct
role
in
improving

consumer
experiences
as
a
direct

result
of
them
talking
to
us
…

We
need
to
capture

knowledge,
not
just

data.
That’s
where

the
value
lies.

Alan
Yelsey

The
value
of
privacy

The
tension
between
privacy
and

sharing
of
our
data
will
conEnue,
yet

we
will
become
more
knowledgeable

on
what
it
means
to
share
data,
and

we
will
see
further
regulaEons
and

guidelines
built
into
data
acquisiEon

for
commercial
purposes.

Carol
Haney

.

And
while
there’s
an
uneasiness

associated
with
this
today
-‐
I

wonder
if
this
is
something

we’ll
just
take
for
granted
20

years
from
now.

Ian
McKinnon

People
expect
that
they
are
being
tracked
and
are

comfortable
with
it
–
as
long
as
the
informaEon
is

being
used
to
help
them
in
someway.
It’s
not

creepy
if
it’s
USEFUL

Jayne
Dow

Embracing
change
–
the
need
for
new
methods

.

InnovaEons
will
lead
to
more
data

and
more
complex
ways
of
looking

at
data,
however
they
will
also

bring
about
more
creaEve,

engaging
and
less
taxing
ways
of

collecEng
informaEon
from

consumers.

Jeremy
Carpenter

Roxie
Strohmenger

It’s
all
about
reframing
how
we
get
insights
from

consumers.
We
must
use
mobile
as
a
vehicle
as
it
opens

up
so
many
new
avenues
that
we
didn’t
have
before.

Peter
Teachman

We
need
to
evolve

Short.
Focused.
We
live
in
a
140

character
world
–
people
live
in
sound
bites

and
their
aRenEon
span
has
adjusted
to

match.
We
as
researchers
need
to

accommodate
this
shiv.

Zoe
Dowling

Biggest
Challenge:
The

mindsets
of
research
buyers

and
researchers.

The
sun
is

seqng
on
the
200-‐page

quarterly
analysis
and
the

50-‐page
monthly
tracker.

Researchers
will
need
to

learn
how
to
ﬁnd
and
tell
the

stories
in
new
ways.

Stuart
Ryder

MR
companies
will
need
to

adapt
their
communicaEon
styles
to

how
people
learn
today
–
this
will

mean
greater
use
of
technology,

focussing
on
the
key
big
learnings,

interacEve
tools,
not
just
the

'presentaEon
workshop‘.

Graeme
Sparshob

Mobile
is
the
Tool
–
not
the
Solu@on

Steve
August

Expect
a
dizzying
array
of
choices

when
it
comes
to
mobile
research.

But
remember

mobile
doesn’t

automaEcally
mean
good
research.

Mobile
is
simply
a
medium
that
gives

you
the
opportunity
to
get
closer
to

your
customers
than
ever
before.
It's

sEll
takes
research
skills
to
make

mobile
deliver.

Don’t
chase

technology.

Technology
is
a
tool

to
uncover
insights.

Chase
insights.

Stuart
Ryder

.

The
beauty
of

mobile
is
not
about

the
device
–
it’s
the

state
of
being
.

Jayne
Dow

Typical
research
project?

1.

More
inputs;
blurred
qual
quant
boundaries;
more

Partnerships
with
tech
businesses;
.

2.

Client
data
+
open
behavioral
data
+
proprietary
passive
&

acEve
behavioural
and
(short-‐form)
survey
data

3.

Will
also
include:

•  Text
analyEcs/NLP/network
analysis.....

•  Algorithms
for
more
personalised
research
experience
and

incenEves,
improving
parEcipaEon
rates
and
openness
(e.g.

Amazon)

•  More
inputs
from
'quanEﬁed
self'
(aka
'living
data')
sources

•  Neuroscience
inputs

•  Video
via
mobile
and
other
mobile
meta
data
such
as
locaEon,

environmental
condiEons
etc.

Simon
Falconer

Iner@a
will
remain
a
problem

Andy
Lees

We
are
lazy
creatures

InerEa.
Reliance
on
norms.

The
hassle
of
truly
embracing

emerging
markets.

Ben
Leet

Front
and
center

Kim-‐Fredrik
Schneider

In
a
world
of
digital
proliferaEon

and
diversiﬁcaEon,
our

understanding
of
the
consumer
at

the
centre
of
all
acEvity
is

fundamental.

The
extent
to
which
mobile
is

synonymous
with
the
consumer
will

be
a
central
component
of
this

understanding.

Judith
Passingham

Mobile
is
Dead.

Long
Live
Mobility.

Mobile
market
research

will
have
to
be
a
fundamental

element
of
any
MR
project.
To
get

to
the
people
you
want
to
get
to
–

you
have
to
use
mobile
–
it

will
be

the
most
facilitaEng
and

meaningful
point
of
contact.

Finn
Raben

Not
there
yet

CollecEng
data
using
a
mobile

device
is
a
huge
buzz
in
the

industry,
but
it
hasn’t
replaced

other
modes
of
data
collecEon

…
yet.
When
it
does
happen
–

it’s
going
to
transform
porEons

of
the
MR
industry.

Carol
Haney

.

I
think
the
future
will
look
more
like

today
than
we
expect.

As
an

example:
I
was
in
the
airport,
walking

past
a
newsstand
where
there
was
a

magazine
with
a
grumpy
looking

Buzz
Aldrin
with
the
quote,
“You

promised
us
Mars
colonies
and
all

we
got
was
Facebook.”

Steve
August

The
medium
opens
so
many
possibiliEes
but
it

seems
to
be
taking
a
long
Eme
for
the
industry

to
embrace
these!

Fiona
Blade

Some
things
will
remain
the
same

Lord
Leverhulme

Businesses
will
sEll
have
problems

that
need
ﬁxing.
Technology,

devices
will
change.
But
you
sEll

need
people
to
answer
quesEons.

Technology
and
inference
can
only

go
so
far.
There
is
a
fundamental

need
that
will
remain.

Alistair
Hill

I
know
that
half
of

the
money
I
spend
is

wasted.
I
just
don't

know
which
half.

Much
like
the
Wizard
of
Oz

Like
the
Tin
Man:

«  Do
we
have
the

heart?

Like
the
Scarecrow:

«  Do
we
have
the

brains?

And
like
the
Lion:

«  Do
we
have
the
courage?

In
Summary

 
$300
bn
industry?

 
Inevitably
the
central
role

 
MMRA
and
MRMW
will
be
mainstream
and
set
standards

 
Are
you
ready
for
2030?

Vision 2030: how mobile research will fit in for stakeholders across the insights value-chain - Lumi Mobile

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