How Authors Can Stress Less Over Their Metrics
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This is a webinar presented by Mark Graban, author of the book "Measures of Success: React Less, Lead Better, Improve More." The webinar was hosted by Cathy Fyock, "The Business Book Strategist." https://www.cathyfyock.com/ Cathy coached me through the book writing process and I am grateful to her and her community of authors. She invited me to give this presentation for her group of authors... so I tried to tailor a talk that focuses on authors, their metrics, and how to best manage them in a way that reduces stress and overreaction. YouTube recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kRaxGiKOAY
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How Authors Can Stress Less Over Their Metrics
- 1. Mark Graban @MarkGraban www.MeasuresOfSuccessBook.com How Authors Can Stress Less Over Their Metrics Measures of Success: React Less, Lead Better, Improve More
- 4. What Metrics Matter to Authors? • Book sales • Website traffic • Social media engagements • YouTube video views • Newsletter subscribers • Revenue
- 5. What are the right metrics?
- 6. "The fact that your site has seen an uptick in visitors doesn’t mean your product is more popular or you’re more successful."
- 7. “Vanity Metrics” • Instagram likes? • Twitter followers? • Blog page views?
- 8. What do we do with the right metrics?
- 9. "The fact that your site has seen an uptick in visitors doesn’t mean your site is getting more visitors."
- 10. The Google Analytics Monthly Email "The fact that your site has seen a downtick in visitors doesn’t mean your site is getting fewer visitors."
- 11. Donald J.Wheeler, Ph.D. “Without context, data have no meaning.”
- 12. The Google Analytics Monthly Email “Without context, data have no meaning.”
- 13. What decision or change should you make?
- 14. Two data points are not a trend
- 16. Four data points might not be a trend
- 17. #PlotTheDots
- 18. The Google Analytics App
- 19. From Google Analytics – 2017 and 2018 Data Oscars Blog Post
- 20. "The fact that you have seen a downtick in sales doesn’t mean you’re selling significantly fewer books… or that it’s a trend"
- 21. Traditional Publisher Metrics $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 H2 2017 H1 2018 Book Royalties
- 22. Should we react to the change in our metric?
- 23. Two data points are not a trend
- 24. Fact of Life:There isVariation in Every Metric • The question is "how much variation is routine?” • Personal examples: • Body weight • Resting heart rate • Time to drive to work • Blood pressure 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 21-Dec 22-Dec 23-Dec 24-Dec 25-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec 28-Dec 29-Dec 30-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan 4-Jan 5-Jan 6-Jan 7-Jan 8-Jan 9-Jan 10-Jan 11-Jan 12-Jan 13-Jan Run Chart (Heart Rate) 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 5/27/16 5/29/16 5/31/16 6/2/16 6/4/16 6/6/16 6/8/16 6/10/16 6/12/16 6/14/16 6/16/16 6/18/16 6/20/16 6/22/16 6/24/16 6/26/16 6/28/16 6/30/16 7/2/16 7/4/16 Run Chart (Weight)
- 25. Signals vs. Noise “While every data set contains noise, some data sets may contain signals. Therefore, before you can detect a signal within any given data set, you must first filter out the noise." "Process Behavior Charts"
- 26. Amazon Daily Charts – Measures of Success
- 27. “Run Chart” – Measures of Success - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan 4-Jan 5-Jan 6-Jan 7-Jan 8-Jan 9-Jan 10-Jan 11-Jan 12-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan 19-Jan 20-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan Run Chart (Daily Book Sales)
- 28. Building a “Process Behavior Chart” - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan 4-Jan 5-Jan 6-Jan 7-Jan 8-Jan 9-Jan 10-Jan 11-Jan 12-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan 19-Jan 20-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan Run Chart (Daily Book Sales) AVERAGE (2.25)
- 29. - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 20-Dec 21-Dec 22-Dec 23-Dec 24-Dec 25-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec 28-Dec 29-Dec 30-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan 4-Jan 5-Jan 6-Jan 7-Jan 8-Jan 9-Jan 10-Jan 11-Jan 12-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan X Chart (Daily Book Sales) "Process Behavior Chart” – Measures of Success AVERAGE UPPER NATURAL PROCESS LIMIT (6.88) NOISE PREDICTABLE METRIC
- 30. 3 Rules for Finding a Signal Any data point outside of the Limits 8 on same side of the average 3 of 4 closer to the limit than average
- 31. Earlier "Process Behavior Chart” – Measures of Success AVERAGE - 5 10 15 20 25 30 29-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul 1-Aug 2-Aug 3-Aug 4-Aug 5-Aug 6-Aug 7-Aug 8-Aug 9-Aug 10-Aug 11-Aug 12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug 17-Aug 18-Aug 19-Aug 20-Aug 21-Aug 22-Aug 23-Aug 24-Aug X Chart (Daily Book Sales) UPPER NATURAL PROCESS LIMIT LOWER NATURAL PROCESS LIMIT SIGNAL WHAT CHANGED?
- 32. Weekly Process Behavior Chart – Measures of Success - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Week 25 Week 26 Week 27 Week 28 Week 29 Week 30 Week 31 Week 32 Week 33 Week 34 Week 35 Week 36 Week 37 Week 38 Week 39 Week 40 Week 41 Week 42 Week 43 Week 44 Week 45 Week 46 Week 47 Week 48 Week 49 Week 50 Week 51 Week 1 Week 2 X Chart (Weekly Book Pre-Orders or Sales) Kindle Launch Week ???? Started PR Efforts Rule 3 Signal Rule 1 Signal Rule 2 Signal ????
- 33. Weekly Process Behavior Chart – Measures of Success - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Week 25 Week 26 Week 27 Week 28 Week 29 Week 30 Week 31 Week 32 Week 33 Week 34 Week 35 Week 36 Week 37 Week 38 Week 39 Week 40 Week 41 Week 42 Week 43 Week 44 Week 45 Week 46 Week 47 Week 48 Week 49 Week 50 Week 51 Week 1 Week 2 X Chart (Weekly Book Pre-Orders or Sales) Shift in Performance LOWER NATURAL PROCESS LIMIT PREDICTABLE METRIC
- 34. 3 Key Questions for Any Business Metric 1. Are we achieving our target or goal? 2. Are we improving? 3. How do we improve? • Reactive or systematically?- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 W eek25W eek26W eek27W eek28W eek29W eek30W eek31W eek32W eek33W eek34W eek35W eek36W eek37W eek38W eek39W eek40W eek41W eek42W eek43W eek44W eek45W eek46W eek47W eek48W eek49W eek50W eek51W eek1W eek2 X Chart (Weekly Book Pre-Orders or Sales)
- 36. From Google Analytics – 2017 and 2018 Data Oscars Blog Post - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 0000 0001 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 0007 0008 0009 0010 0011 0012 0013 0014 0015 0016 0017 0018 0019 0020 0021 0022 0023 0024 0025 0026 0027 0028 0029 0030 0031 0032 0033 0034 0035 0036 0037 0038 0039 0040 0041 0042 0043 0044 0045 0046 0047 0048 0049 0050 0051 X Chart (Blog Page Loads by Week) Shift in Performance
- 37. Shifts in Performance – Why? - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 0000 0001 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 0007 0008 0009 0010 0011 0012 0013 0014 0015 0016 0017 0018 0019 0020 0021 0022 0023 0024 0025 0026 0027 0028 0029 0030 0031 0032 0033 0034 0035 0036 0037 0038 0039 0040 0041 0042 0043 0044 0045 0046 0047 0048 0049 0050 0051 X Chart (Blog Page Loads by Week) ???? ???? Holidays ????
- 38. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 0000 0001 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 0007 0008 0009 0010 0011 0012 0013 0014 0015 0016 0017 0018 0019 0020 0021 0022 0023 0024 0025 0026 0027 0028 0029 0030 0031 0032 0033 0034 0035 0036 0037 0038 0039 0040 0041 0042 0043 0044 0045 0046 0047 0048 0049 0050 0051 X Chart (Blog Page Loads by Week) Outliers in Performance – Why? ???? Holidays
- 39. Other Examples
- 40. KaiNexus Webinar Registrations SIGNAL WHAT CHANGED? NOISE CAN WE RECREATE IT?
- 41. College Football Playoff Ratings NOISE
- 44. React Less Lead Better Improve More
- 45. How to Create Process Behavior Charts Blog Post: How to Create a Control Chart for Managing Performance Metrics (Google that or “Mark Graban KaiNexus control chart”)
- 46. Questions? Mark Graban @MarkGraban • Email: • mark@markgraban.com • Web: • www.LeanBlog.org • www.MarkGraban.com Book Site: MeasuresOfSuccessBook.com