Contenu connexe Similaire à Thomas Husson the mobile web (20) Thomas Husson the mobile web1. The Mobile Web: Unleashing
Use in a Nascent Market
FDIH, Search Marketing Strategies, Scandinavia 2008
February 8th, 2008
Thomas Husson, Senior Analyst, European Mobile 2. Jupiter Research: An International
Research And Advisory Company
Focusing On The Digital Economy
• Est. 1986. Telecoms / Media / Internet Focus
• Headquarters in New York. 60+ analysts in San
Francisco, London, Paris, Berlin, Madrid and
Scandinavia
• Field regular Consumer surveys / Canvass
market leading executives - Build sophisticated
market forecasts
• Client unlimited access to reports and analysts
• Consulting and exclusive custom projects
2 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC 3. 2008 Research Offering
Personal Technology & Access Industry Focus
• Broadband • Automotive
• PC & Console Games • Financial Services
• Personal Technology • Health
• Wi-Fi Mobility • Retail
• Wireless • Travel
• Mobile Devices *New for 2008
• Digital Home *New for 2008 Web Technologies & Operations
• Customer Service & Support
Marketing & Advertising • Payments & Transactions
• Advertising & Branding • Site Technologies & Operations
• E-Mail Marketing • Web Globalization *New for 2007
• Online Behavior & Demographics
• Mobile Media & Marketing *New for 2007 European Focus
• Search Marketing • Broadband and VoIP
• Social Marketing *New for 2007 • Commerce
• Content & Programming
Media Focus • Country Focus
• Music • Digital Home
• News & Information • Marketing & Advertising
• Online Media & Programming • Market Forecasts
• Television & Filmed Entertainment • Mobile
3 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC 4. Reports – European Mobile
• European Mobile Forecast (2007-2012) – to be published
• Mobile Data Pricing – to be published
• Mobile Advertising in Europe
• Mobile Social Networking
• Impact of the iPhone in Europe
• Mobile Search: Finding Opportunities in a Nascent Market
• Mobile Youth Consumer Survey: Targeting digital natives and
keeping them loyal
• The future of mobile browsing: leveraging the Internet model
• Consumer-Created Content: Defining opportunities for mobile
operators
• Ad-funded mobile services: emergence of a new business
model
4 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC 5. AGENDA
• What's the current reality of the mobile
service market?
• How are mobile Internet / search, mobile
advertising and mobile social networks
developing?
• What are the drivers and inhibitors for the
uptake of this nascent market? How
quickly will it grow ?
5 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC 6. Except 3G Early Adopters & Youth, Majority
of Mobile Phone Owners Do Not Use Mobile
Multimedia Services
Watched a short video
Sent more than 10 SMS / day
Shared mobile content with friends
Accessed the Internet from my mobile
Listened to full music tracks
Received and sent e-mails
Used mobile IM With 3G phones
15-24 with mobile phones
With mobile phones
Watched Live TV
None
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Percentage of Consumers by Phone Type
Question: During the past three months, which of the following activities have you done at least once on your mobile phone?
Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (9/06), n = 3,680 (consumers with mobile phones, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Sweden only)
6 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC 7. Mobile Broadband Will Not Be Mass-
Market Before The End of The Decade
100%
Percentage of SIM Cards by
2.5G
Network Generation
80%
60%
40% 3G
3.5G
20%
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2.5G 71% 87% 94% 98% 100% 100% 100%
3G 6% 13% 22% 33% 45% 54% 62%
3.5G 0% 0% 1% 3% 7% 15% 26%
*categories are not mutually exclusive. 3.5g is a subset of 3G, which is a subset of 2.5G, explaining why total is over 100%. 3G excludes EDGE
7 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC Source: JupiterResearch Mobile Forecast 10/06 (Western Europe only) 9. Social Networkers Most Likely to
Share and Upload Mobile Media
Shared Mobile
Photos or Video
Uploaded
Mobile Photos
or Video
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Percentage of European Segment
Average User All Networkers Frequent Networkers
Question: Considering the following statements, which describe you? (Select all that apply)
9 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC Source: JupiterResearch Consumer Survey 4/07 n = 4,446 (UK, FR, DE, NL, DK only) 10. Mobile Operators Are Slowly Moving
Away from their Walled-Garden
Approach
Branded / Open White-label
strategy approach
• Drive audience • Increased
and traffic revenues for
• Risk of carriers
dissatisfaction in • More relevant
the early days answers
• Position of • Consumers’
carriers in the distrust
value chain
10 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC Source: JupiterResearch (12/06), Western Europe 11. Interest in Mobile Search Still Limited, but
Higher Among Online Local Search Users
Denmark
Netherlands
France
UK
Germany
Average
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Percentage of Segment
Consumers who have searched local information
online and would be interested in mobile search
Consumers interested in using an Internet search
engine on their mobile phone
Question: Considering the following statements, which ones describe you? Please select all that apply. (Answers are shown for wanting to use an
Internet search engine such as Google on a mobile phone.)
11 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (4/07), n = 4,446 (Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, and UK) 12. Forty Percent of European Mobile Population
Will Regularly Access Mobile Internet by 2012
(in millions)
Percentage of the Mobile Population
150 100%
80%
Mobile Internet Users
Number of Monthly
100
60%
37% 40% 40%
50 33%
29%
24%
19% 20%
0 0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Number of monthly mobile Internet users
Percentage of users accessing the mobile Internet
12 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC Source: JupiterResearch Mobile Model, 11/07 (Western Europe) 13. UK: Interesting Testbed for Innovative
Consumer Internet Pricing in Europe
Launch
Operator Description of Pricing
Date
Pay monthly: £7.5 (€11) per month (1GB fair use);
T-Mobile 2005
prepay: £1 (€1.5) per day (40 MB fair use)
X-Series Silver at £5 (€7.5) per month (1GB fair use);
unlimited Skype calls for Skype PC users, unlimited IM
October to or from Windows Live Messenger or Yahoo!
3
2006 Messenger, Internet browsing; X-Series Gold at £10
(€15) per month (Silver package plus 50 hours of access
to home TV with Slingbox and to home PC with Orb)
May £8 (€12) capped at 30 MB per month; available to prepay
Orange
2007 and post-pay users
June £7.5 (€11) capped at 150 MB per month; £1 (€1.5) per day
Vodafone
2007 for up to 15 MB and £2 (€3) per MB beyond that
£7.5 (€11) capped at 200 MB per month; available to
October
O2 prepay and post-pay users; dedicated offering for
2007
iPhone users launched on November 9, 2007
13 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC Source: JupiterResearch (2/08); mobile operators’ reports 14. Limited Willingness to Pay Will Force
Operators and Content Owners to Turn to Ad-
Funded Business Models
Interested in services but would not pay
Not willing to pay for services, but would accept ads
Sharing pictures or videos with friends
Listening to music
Accessing Internet
Receiving personal emails
Accessing maps and local information
Playing a game
Willing to pay for new services
Using Instant Messaging
Watching live TV or short videos Percentage of Mobile Phone Owners
Interested and Willing to Pay for New
Nothing - only interested in voice/SMS Mobile Services
0% 50% 100%
Question: Which of the following services would you be interested in using on your mobile phone in the next 12 months?
Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (9/07), n = 4,202 (consumers with mobile phones in France, Germany, Italy, Spain,
14 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC Sweden, and UK only) 15. Several Business Models Are Likely To
Co-Exist in an Evolving Ecosystem
New Entrants’ Handset
impact Manufacturers Operators’ role
dilemma
New Payment Non-cellular Internet
methods networks Convergence
Pay-per
Access / Subscriptions Ad-funded Free
Download
15 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC 16. Create a Sticky Audience First.
Monetize Second.
BUSINESS HANDSETS
MODELS &
NETWORKS
CLIENT
PRICE EXPERIENCE
A Holistic Approach to Build Market Foundations
16 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC Source: Jupiter Research (10/2007) 17. Typical Consolidation Phase in a New
Market
! Fragmented market
! Lack of internal human
competencies and technology
! Strategic long term vision
that mobile may well be the
next advertising battleground
! Blurring of boundaries in
the online advertising channel
17 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC 18. 10 Mobile Advertising Myths
1. Penetration rate>100%
2. ~3,000,000 mobile users
3. Mobile Internet > PC Internet Users
4. Multimedia messaging is dead
5. Triple digit growth
6. Mobile TV is about to be mass-market
7. Mobile advertising ~ > 20,000,000,000 $
8. Operators’ inventory ~x00,000,000 impressions
9. Click Through Rates on mobile >>> Internet
10.Mobile 2.0
18 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC 19. Advertising on Personal Phones Is A
Double-Edged Sword
Mobile phone
owners, ages 15 2% 35% 17% 19% 22% 5%
to 24
Overall mobile
3% 47% 18% 14% 14% 4%
phone owners
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Percentage of Segment
Don't know Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree Neutral
Somewhat agree Strongly agree
Question: Do you agree with the following statement: I would like to receive promotions and advertising on my phone if they are relevant to me and will
help me save money?
Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (9/06), n = 3,680 (consumers with mobile phones, UK, France, Germany,
19 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC Italy, Spain, and Sweden only) 20. SMS Marketing Is Only Mass-Reach
Mobile Marketing Option
Marketing Monthly Audience
Capabilities at End of 2007
Simple messaging: SMS active users:
160-character black- 74% (234 million)
and-white text-based
SMS messaging
MMS active users:
29% (92 million)
Mobile Internet
active users:
19% (60 million)
Enhanced
messaging (plus Mobile video/TV
content and services): active users:
dynamic/interactive/ 7% (22 million)
audiovisual content/
services/applications, Mobile search active users:
short video clips, sponsored less than 4% (14 million)
links and keywords
Source: JupiterResearch Mobile Model, 10/06 (Western Europe); JupiterResearch Mobile Marketing and Advertising Model,
20 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC 11/07 (Western Europe) 21. Lack of Strategic Integration and
Implementation Complexities Will Stifle
Mobile Marketing’s Potential in Short Term
Lack of Campaign
Lack of strategic execution
interoperable
integration in the complexities
measurement and
Limited marketing mix
performance tools
audience
Mobile
Advertising
Spending
Individual,
Growing
Growing contextual
Consumers’ inventory and
interest of (location-based),
uptake of data choice of ad
advertisers and behavioral
services formats
targeting
capabilities
21 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC Source: JupiterResearch (12/07) 22. Advertisers Plan to Use Many Different Tactics
Including Banner Ads, Sponsored Links
SMS marketing messages
WAP-push marketing
MMS images Messaging
MMS video
Branded mobile content (e.g., logos, games)
Banner ads on mobile portals
Banner ads on off-portal mobile Internet
pages
Branded mobile applications
Sponsored links within mobile search
Ad-supported content or services
Mobile coupons or bar codes
Content sponsorships or advertorials
In-stream video ads Having used tactic
during past 12 months
Ads on mobile location-based services Planning to use tactic
Other during next 12 months
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Question: Which mobile marketing and advertising tactics Percentage of Mobile Marketing Decision Makers
have you used during the past 12 months, and which do you Having Used or Planning to Use Mobile Marketing
plan to use during the next 12 months? Select all that apply.
Source: JupiterResearch Mobile Marketing and Advertising Executive Survey (7/07), n = 50 (mobile marketing decision
22 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC makers having used or planning to use mobile marketing, Western Europe) 23. 2006 Mobile Advertising Revenues ~240M €
in the Advanced Japanese Market*
• 3G =64% penetration rate*
• Mobile Internet =87% penetration rate**
23 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC Source: * Dentsu, ** Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications 24. Stakeholders Must Implement Measurement
and ROI Standards to Boost Market Uptake
Allocation of budget
Measurement technology
High cost of inventory
Lack of inventory
Selection of best tactics
Coordination with other media
Lack of audience
Selection of best inventory
Trafficking technology
Mobile landing page production
Trafficking processes Measurement issues
Measurement and reporting strategies Cost/reach issues
Data protection and privacy Other
Mobile creative development
Poor performance
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Percentage of Mobile Marketing Decision
Makers Having Used Mobile Marketing
Question: Which of the following problems have you experienced in relation to your mobile marketing efforts? Select all that apply.
Source: JupiterResearch Mobile Marketing and Advertising Executive Survey (7/07), n = 34 (mobile marketing decision
24 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC makers having used mobile marketing, Western Europe) 25. Key Takeaways
! Online Trends in the maturing web market are
expanding in the nascent mobile space
! Barriers will be removed or lessened in the next few
years: more affordable data plans, good enough mobile
broadband experience, compelling handsets
!However, today mobile multimedia services are only
on their way to reach critical mass
! Mobile Advertising is still in its infancy and will
remain in an educational / standardization phase in the
next 2/3 years
25 © 2008 JupiterResearch, LLC 26. Thank You for you attention
Questions ?
thusson@jupiterresearch.com