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Early renal biopsies:
impact of chronic
lesions
Maarten Naesens
Actualités Néphrologiques
Jean Hamburger
Institut Pasteur / Hôpital Necker 2015
Starzl et al Ann Surg 1974
64 cases transplanted between 1962-
1964 in Colorado and Denver
ct ci ah cv
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
50
100
150
Calendar Year
Numberofarticlesperyear
PubMed articles on
Fibrosis and Kidney Transplantation
Research on fibrosis in kidney transplantation
has emerged after 1993
Chronic allograft nephropathy was coined at
the 1st Banff conference in 1991 and refined
Solez et al Kidney Int 1993 Racusen et al Kidney Int 1999
The Helsinki group demonstrated that chronic
damage increases importantly in the first years
Yilmaz et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2003
Baseline Month 12 Month 36
0
2
4
6
8
Mean CADI score
N=111 N=302 N=206
Chronic injury increases early after
transplantation
Nankivell et al New Engl J Med 2003
Chronic injury increases early after
transplantation in TAC-MMF treated patients
Naesens et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2009
Chronic
injury
Prevale
nce
Impact
Causes
Clinical
use
The Sydney group demonstrated that chronic
damage determines graft outcome
Nankivell et al Transplantation 2001
ci=0
ci=1
ci=2-3
Early chronic damage associates with
death-censored graft survival
Naesens et al Am J Transplant 2012
interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy
P<0.0001
Death-censored graft survival
(all patients)
0
20
40
60
80
100
IFTA = 0
IFTA = 1
5 10 15 20
IFTA = 2-3
Max IFTA grade in 1st year
Time postTX (years)
Percentsurvival
Death-censored graft survival
(all patients)
0
20
40
60
80
100
IFTA = 0
IFTA = 1
5 10 15 20
IFTA = 2-3
Max IFTA grade in 1st year
Time postTX (years)
Percentsurvival
N=1197; indication biopsies within the FIRST YEAR posttransplant (N=963)
70%
30%
Early chronic damage associates with
death-censored graft survival
From Loupy et al New Eng J Med 2013
eGFR at 1 year 30-60 vs. >60 mL/min
eGFR at 1 year <30 vs. >60 mL/min
IFTA grade 2/3 vs 0/1
Presence of cg/ptc/g
Presence of C1q-binding DSA
10 1001.0
Hazard ratio (95% CI)
for kidney graft loss
HR 2.45 (1.09-5.53)
HR 12.5 (5.56-28.1)
HR 2.22 (1.41-3.49)
HR 2.26 (1.31-3.89)
HR 4.78 (2.69-8.49)
Chronic damage associates with
death-censored graft survival
From Naesens et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2015 (In press)
Proteinuria 0.3-1.0 vs. <0.3 g/24h
Proteinuria 1.0-3.0 vs. <0.3 g/24h
Proteinuria >3.0 vs. <0.3 g/24h
eGFR 30-45 vs. >45 mL/min/m2
eGFR 15-30 vs. >45 mL/min/m2
eGFR <15 vs. >45 mL/min/m2
Microcirculation inflammation g+ptc >2 vs. <2
IF/TA grade Banff grade 1 vs. 0
IF/TA grade Banff grade 2-3 vs. 0
Transplant glomerulopathy Banff grade 1 vs. 0
Transplant glomerulopathy Banff grade 2-3 vs. 0
De novo/recurrent glomerular disease Present vs. absent
Polyomavirus associated nephropathy Present vs. absent
10 1001
Hazard ratio (95% CI)
for kidney graft loss
HR 1.14 (0.81-1.60)
HR 2.17 (1.49-3.18)
HR 3.01 (1.75-5.18)
HR 1.76 (0.59-5.30)
HR 5.53 (1.99-15.4)
HR 11.7 (4.17-33.0)
HR 1.36 (0.97-1.91)
HR 1.82 (1.25-2.64)
HR 3.45 (2.34-5.07)
HR 1.00 (0.55-1.82)
HR 1.83 (1.11-3.04)
HR 1.35 (0.84-2.19)
HR 5.51 (3.06-9.92)
Chronic damage associates with
death-censored graft survival
Naesens M et al Transplantation 2014
Unsupervised clustering analysis illustrates
collation of chronic injury in the same biopsies
Naesens M et al Am J Transplant 2012
Inflammation + C4d deposition
Inflammation – C4d deposition
Normal
Chronic - inflammation
Chronic + inflammation
Transplant glomerulopathy
gs
cv
mm
ah
ct
ci
cg
ti
i
t
ptc
g
v
C4dglom
C4dptc
0 max
Individual lesion score
All early chronic damage associates with
death-censored graft survival
Naesens et al Am J Transplant 2012
interstitial fibrosis
0
20
40
60
80
100
ci=0
ci=1
ci=2-3
1 5 10 15 20
p=0.0005
308
109
74
ci=0
ci=1
ci=2-3
N at risk
271
84
56
203
58
42
83
24
17
Time after transplantation (years)
Percentsurvival
tubular atrophy
0
20
40
60
80
100
ct=0
ct=1
ct=2-3
1 5 10 15 20
p<0.0001
247
212
32
ct=0
ct=1
ct=2-3
N at risk
221
170
21
169
122
12
84
38
3
Time after transplantation (years)
Percentsurvival
arteriolar hyalino
0
20
40
60
80
100
ah=0
ah=1
1 5 10 15
ah=2-3
275
136
79
ah=0
ah=1
ah=2-3
N at risk
241
112
57
183
83
37
9
2
9
Time after transplantatio
Percentsurvival
mesangial matrix increase
0
20
40
60
80
100
mm=0
mm=1
1 5 10 15 20
p=0.0001mm=2-3
383mm=0
N at risk
333 247 100
Time after transplantation (years)
Percentsurvival
glomerulosclerosis
0
20
40
60
80
100
gs=0
gs=1
gs=2
1 5 10 15 20
p=0.0009
334gs=0
N at risk
283 217 101
Time after transplantation (years)
Percentsurvival
vascular intimal thic
0
20
40
60
80
100
cv=0
cv=1
1 5 10 15
cv=2-3
393cv=0
N at risk
336 251 11
Time after transplantatio
Percentsurvival
20
0.0005
ars)
tubular atrophy
0
20
40
60
80
100
ct=0
ct=1
ct=2-3
1 5 10 15 20
p<0.0001
247
212
32
ct=0
ct=1
ct=2-3
N at risk
221
170
21
169
122
12
84
38
3
Time after transplantation (years)
Percentsurvival
arteriolar hyalinosis
0
20
40
60
80
100
ah=0
ah=1
1 5 10 15 20
p<0.0001ah=2-3
275
136
79
ah=0
ah=1
ah=2-3
N at risk
241
112
57
183
83
37
91
24
9
Time after transplantation (years)
Percentsurvival
20
0.0005
ears)
tubular atrophy
0
20
40
60
80
100
ct=0
ct=1
ct=2-3
1 5 10 15 20
p<0.0001
247
212
32
ct=0
ct=1
ct=2-3
N at risk
221
170
21
169
122
12
84
38
3
Time after transplantation (years)
Percentsurvival
arteriolar hyalinosis
0
20
40
60
80
100
ah=0
ah=1
1 5 10 15 20
p<0.0001ah=2-3
275
136
79
ah=0
ah=1
ah=2-3
N at risk
241
112
57
183
83
37
91
24
9
Time after transplantation (years)
Percentsurvivalase
20
0.0001
ears)
glomerulosclerosis
0
20
40
60
80
100
gs=0
gs=1
gs=2
1 5 10 15 20
p=0.0009
334
122
35
gs=0
gs=1
gs=2-3
N at risk
283
100
28
217
69
17
101
19
5
Time after transplantation (years)
Percentsurvival
vascular intimal thickening
0
20
40
60
80
100
cv=0
cv=1
1 5 10 15 20
p=0.008cv=2-3
393
58
37
cv=0
cv=1
cv=2-3
N at risk
336
47
28
251
35
16
114
6
5
Time after transplantation (years)
Percentsurvival
Clustering analysis illustrates
collation of chronic injury in the same biopsies
Sis et al Am J Transplant 2010
Unsupervised clustering analysis illustrates
collation of chronic injury in the same biopsies
Naesens M et al Am J Transplant 2012
i
t
ti
v
g
ptc
C4dptc
C4dglom
ci
ct
ah
mm
cv
gs
cg
r
-1
1
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
t iv
C4d ptc
C4d glom
g
ci
ct
cg
ah
cv
mm
ptc
ti
gs
PC1 (23.9% of variance)
PC2(18.9%ofvariance)
Chronic histological damage
Inflammation and
C4d deposition
Transplant
glomerulopathy
Unsupervised clustering analysis illustrates
collation of chronic injury in the same biopsies
Naesens M et al Am J Transplant 2012
i
t
ti
v
g
ptc
C4dptc
C4dglom
ci
ct
ah
mm
cv
gs
cg
r
-1
1
Graft survival
0
20
40
60
80
100
No chronic damage
Chronic damage
1 2 5 10 15 20
P<0.0001
Time after transplantation
(years)
Death-censoredgraft
survival
Co-clustering of different histological lesions is
the consequence of their pathophysiology
From Nankivell and Chapman Transplantation 2006
Interstitial
fibrosisTubular atrophy
Glomerulo-
sclerosis
cv / ah
Transplant glomerulopathy doesn’t correlate
well with to the other chronic lesions
Naesens M et al Am J Transplant 2012
i
t
ti
v
g
ptc
C4dptc
C4dglom
ci
ct
ah
mm
cv
gs
cg
r
-1
1
Early transplant glomerulopathy
leads to rapid graft failure
Naesens et al Am J Transplant 2012
Transplant glomerulopathy
independently associates with proteinuria
Naesens et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2015 (In press)
Proteinuria(g/24h)
Transplant glomerulopathy and proteinuria
interact with each other
From Naesens et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2015 (In press)
1 5 10
0
20
40
60
80
100
Time after biopsy (years)
Death-censoredgraftsurvival(%)
No cg - proteinuria <1.0g/24 h
No cg - proteinuria >1.0g/24h
log-rank
P<0.0001
Cg - proteinuria <1.0g/24 h
Cg - proteinuria >1.0g/24h
Chronic
injury
Prevale
nce
Impact
Causes
Clinical
use
CNIs are a major contributor to decreased
renal function after nonrenal TX
cyclosporine
tacrolimus
Acute CNI nephrotoxicity
Chronic CNI nephrotoxicity
Calcineurin inhibitor nephrotoxicity was
suggested as primary cause of chronic injury
Nankivell et al New Engl J Med 2003
CNI avoidance trials were
not very successful
Sharif et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2011
Calcineurin inhibitor nephrotoxicity was
suggested as primary cause of chronic injury
Snanoudj et al Am J Transplant 2011
0
1
2
3
4
mean ah grade
3 months 12 months 10 years
p=0.8
p=0.01
p<0.0001
No CNI
Cyclosporine
0
1
2
3
mean IFTA grade
3 months 12 months 10 years
p=0.01 p=0.02
p<0.0005 No CNI
Cyclosporine
Donor age associates with chronic injury
already at time of transplantation (baseline bx)
De Vusser K et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2013
N=548 baseline biopsies
Donor age (and renal senescence)
are a primary cause of chronic injury
Naesens M et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2009
Donor age > 60 yrs
Donor age 40-60 yrs
Donor age < 40 yrs
Development of chronic CNI nephrotoxicity
is dependent on donor age
Legendre et al Clin Transplant 2007
TCMR increases chronic injury
in subsequent biopsies
Nankivell et al Transplantation 2004
Development of chronic injury determines
outcome of TCMR
No AR
AR + 1-y IFTA=0
AR + 1-y IFTA=1
AR + 1-y IFTA=2-3
AR + 1-y IFTA>0 + i
AR + 1-y cg>0
El Ters et al Am J Transplant 2013
mRNA in histologically
normal biopsies at 6
months
Affymetrix HG U133
microarray signature
Prediction of CADI
by 24 months
Naesens, Butte, Sarwal et al. Kidney Int 2011
Low CADI High CADI
0.50
0.75
Histology at 24 months
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
AUC = 0.82
p = 0.008
T cell proliferation
100% - Specificity%
Sensitivity(%)
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
B cell proliferation
AUC = 0.88
p = 0.002
100% - Specificity%Sensitivity(%)
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
AUC = 0.83
p = 0.006
NK cell activation
100% - Specificity%
Sensitivity(%)
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
AUC = 0.92
p = 0.0005
Dendritic cell migration
100% - Specificity%
Sensitivity(%)
Low CADI High CADI
0.50
0.75
Histology at 24 months
B
Data-driven analysis of
unexplained progression of chronic injury
Naesens et al Kidney Int 2011
Fehr et al Kidney Int 2011
Drachenberg et al Kidney Int 2012
O’Connell et al (GOCAR study) – undergoing review
“Subtle inflammation”
IHC for immune
cells??
•
Molecular microscope for
diagnosis of “subtle inflammation”
Chronic ABMR is preceded by
microcirculation inflammation
From Lerut et al Transplantation 2007
Transplant glomerulopathy is preceded by
subclinical ABMR
Loupy et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2015
Chronic
injury
Prevale
nce
Impact
Causes
Clinical
use
- Surrogate endpoint
for intervention studies
- Target for treatment
- Treatment decisions
The optimal surrogate endpoint requires a
simple causal relation
Disease Surrogate endpoint Clinical endpoint
Intervention
The optimal surrogate endpoint requires a
simple causal relation
Transplantation Graft loss
Better AR prevention
The optimal surrogate endpoint requires a
simple causal relation
Transplantation TCMR Graft loss
Better AR prevention
The optimal surrogate endpoint requires a
simple causal relation
Transplantation eGFR Graft loss
Better AR prevention
Budde et al Lancet 2011; Budde et al Am J Transplant 2014
eGFR as surrogate endpoint in renal
transplantation?
5-year graft loss:
2.1% in CsA group
2.6% in EVR group
P = 1.00
Z ZEUS trial
Rostaing, Vincenti et al Am J Transplant 2013
eGFR as surrogate endpoint in renal
transplantation?
5-year graft loss:
5% in CsA group
5-6% in BELA group
P = NS
Belatacept LI
Belatacept MI
Cyclosporine
BENEFIT trial
BELA MI BELA LI CsA
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Acute rejection incidence
14%
9%
6%
BELA MI BELA LI CsA
0
50
100
eGFR (mL/min/1.73m2)
BELA MI BELA LI CsA
0%
50%
100%
Graft loss at 3 years
95% 96% 95%
BELA MI BELA LI CsA
0
50
100
IFTA grade > 0 at 1 year
19% 20%
44%
From Vincenti et al New Engl J Med 2005;Vincenti et al Am J Transplant 2010; Rostaing et al Am J Transplant 2013
The BENEFIT trial shows uncoupling of
acute rejection from eGFR and from failure
***
*
*** *
*** *
The optimal surrogate endpoint requires a
simple causal relation
TCMR Graft loss
Innovative prevention/
treatment
IFTA
Donor
age/senescenc
e
CNI
nephrotoxicity
Ischemia/reperf
usion
Reflux
nephropathy…
Transplant glomerulopathy as surrogate
endpoint for treatment of ABMR
ABMR Graft loss
Innovative
prevention/treatment
Transplant
glomerulopathy
Prevention of fibrosis is a specific target for
treatment in kidney transplantation
Tampe and Zeisberg, Nat Rev Nephrol 2014
Extensive IFTA could be used
to withhold treatment
Naesens et al Unpublished data
Death-censored graft survival
1 5 10
0
20
40
60
80
100
Time after indication biopsy (years)
Percentsurvival
TCMR, IFTA 0/1, untreated
TCMR, IFTA 0/1, treated
Death-censored graft survival
1 5 10
0
20
40
60
80
100
Time after indication biopsy (years)
Percentsurvival
TCMR, IFTA 0/1, untreated
TCMR, IFTA 0/1, treated
TCMR, IFTA 2/3, untreated
TCMR, IFTA 2/3, treated
Extensive IFTA could be used
to withhold treatment
Naesens et al Unpublished data
Chronic
injury
Prevale
nce
Impact
Causes
Clinical
use
- Surrogate endpoint
for intervention studies
- Target for treatment
- Treatment decisions
Conclusion
Thank you
maarten.naesens@uzleuven.be

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April 2015 - Maarten Naesens - Early renal biopsies- impact of chronic lesions - Hôpital Necker Paris - Actualités Néphrologiques Jean Hamburger

  • 1. Early renal biopsies: impact of chronic lesions Maarten Naesens Actualités Néphrologiques Jean Hamburger Institut Pasteur / Hôpital Necker 2015
  • 2. Starzl et al Ann Surg 1974 64 cases transplanted between 1962- 1964 in Colorado and Denver ct ci ah cv
  • 3. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0 50 100 150 Calendar Year Numberofarticlesperyear PubMed articles on Fibrosis and Kidney Transplantation Research on fibrosis in kidney transplantation has emerged after 1993
  • 4. Chronic allograft nephropathy was coined at the 1st Banff conference in 1991 and refined Solez et al Kidney Int 1993 Racusen et al Kidney Int 1999
  • 5. The Helsinki group demonstrated that chronic damage increases importantly in the first years Yilmaz et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2003 Baseline Month 12 Month 36 0 2 4 6 8 Mean CADI score N=111 N=302 N=206
  • 6. Chronic injury increases early after transplantation Nankivell et al New Engl J Med 2003
  • 7. Chronic injury increases early after transplantation in TAC-MMF treated patients Naesens et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2009
  • 9. The Sydney group demonstrated that chronic damage determines graft outcome Nankivell et al Transplantation 2001 ci=0 ci=1 ci=2-3
  • 10. Early chronic damage associates with death-censored graft survival Naesens et al Am J Transplant 2012 interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy P<0.0001 Death-censored graft survival (all patients) 0 20 40 60 80 100 IFTA = 0 IFTA = 1 5 10 15 20 IFTA = 2-3 Max IFTA grade in 1st year Time postTX (years) Percentsurvival Death-censored graft survival (all patients) 0 20 40 60 80 100 IFTA = 0 IFTA = 1 5 10 15 20 IFTA = 2-3 Max IFTA grade in 1st year Time postTX (years) Percentsurvival N=1197; indication biopsies within the FIRST YEAR posttransplant (N=963) 70% 30%
  • 11. Early chronic damage associates with death-censored graft survival From Loupy et al New Eng J Med 2013 eGFR at 1 year 30-60 vs. >60 mL/min eGFR at 1 year <30 vs. >60 mL/min IFTA grade 2/3 vs 0/1 Presence of cg/ptc/g Presence of C1q-binding DSA 10 1001.0 Hazard ratio (95% CI) for kidney graft loss HR 2.45 (1.09-5.53) HR 12.5 (5.56-28.1) HR 2.22 (1.41-3.49) HR 2.26 (1.31-3.89) HR 4.78 (2.69-8.49)
  • 12. Chronic damage associates with death-censored graft survival From Naesens et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2015 (In press) Proteinuria 0.3-1.0 vs. <0.3 g/24h Proteinuria 1.0-3.0 vs. <0.3 g/24h Proteinuria >3.0 vs. <0.3 g/24h eGFR 30-45 vs. >45 mL/min/m2 eGFR 15-30 vs. >45 mL/min/m2 eGFR <15 vs. >45 mL/min/m2 Microcirculation inflammation g+ptc >2 vs. <2 IF/TA grade Banff grade 1 vs. 0 IF/TA grade Banff grade 2-3 vs. 0 Transplant glomerulopathy Banff grade 1 vs. 0 Transplant glomerulopathy Banff grade 2-3 vs. 0 De novo/recurrent glomerular disease Present vs. absent Polyomavirus associated nephropathy Present vs. absent 10 1001 Hazard ratio (95% CI) for kidney graft loss HR 1.14 (0.81-1.60) HR 2.17 (1.49-3.18) HR 3.01 (1.75-5.18) HR 1.76 (0.59-5.30) HR 5.53 (1.99-15.4) HR 11.7 (4.17-33.0) HR 1.36 (0.97-1.91) HR 1.82 (1.25-2.64) HR 3.45 (2.34-5.07) HR 1.00 (0.55-1.82) HR 1.83 (1.11-3.04) HR 1.35 (0.84-2.19) HR 5.51 (3.06-9.92)
  • 13. Chronic damage associates with death-censored graft survival Naesens M et al Transplantation 2014
  • 14. Unsupervised clustering analysis illustrates collation of chronic injury in the same biopsies Naesens M et al Am J Transplant 2012 Inflammation + C4d deposition Inflammation – C4d deposition Normal Chronic - inflammation Chronic + inflammation Transplant glomerulopathy gs cv mm ah ct ci cg ti i t ptc g v C4dglom C4dptc 0 max Individual lesion score
  • 15. All early chronic damage associates with death-censored graft survival Naesens et al Am J Transplant 2012 interstitial fibrosis 0 20 40 60 80 100 ci=0 ci=1 ci=2-3 1 5 10 15 20 p=0.0005 308 109 74 ci=0 ci=1 ci=2-3 N at risk 271 84 56 203 58 42 83 24 17 Time after transplantation (years) Percentsurvival tubular atrophy 0 20 40 60 80 100 ct=0 ct=1 ct=2-3 1 5 10 15 20 p<0.0001 247 212 32 ct=0 ct=1 ct=2-3 N at risk 221 170 21 169 122 12 84 38 3 Time after transplantation (years) Percentsurvival arteriolar hyalino 0 20 40 60 80 100 ah=0 ah=1 1 5 10 15 ah=2-3 275 136 79 ah=0 ah=1 ah=2-3 N at risk 241 112 57 183 83 37 9 2 9 Time after transplantatio Percentsurvival mesangial matrix increase 0 20 40 60 80 100 mm=0 mm=1 1 5 10 15 20 p=0.0001mm=2-3 383mm=0 N at risk 333 247 100 Time after transplantation (years) Percentsurvival glomerulosclerosis 0 20 40 60 80 100 gs=0 gs=1 gs=2 1 5 10 15 20 p=0.0009 334gs=0 N at risk 283 217 101 Time after transplantation (years) Percentsurvival vascular intimal thic 0 20 40 60 80 100 cv=0 cv=1 1 5 10 15 cv=2-3 393cv=0 N at risk 336 251 11 Time after transplantatio Percentsurvival 20 0.0005 ars) tubular atrophy 0 20 40 60 80 100 ct=0 ct=1 ct=2-3 1 5 10 15 20 p<0.0001 247 212 32 ct=0 ct=1 ct=2-3 N at risk 221 170 21 169 122 12 84 38 3 Time after transplantation (years) Percentsurvival arteriolar hyalinosis 0 20 40 60 80 100 ah=0 ah=1 1 5 10 15 20 p<0.0001ah=2-3 275 136 79 ah=0 ah=1 ah=2-3 N at risk 241 112 57 183 83 37 91 24 9 Time after transplantation (years) Percentsurvival 20 0.0005 ears) tubular atrophy 0 20 40 60 80 100 ct=0 ct=1 ct=2-3 1 5 10 15 20 p<0.0001 247 212 32 ct=0 ct=1 ct=2-3 N at risk 221 170 21 169 122 12 84 38 3 Time after transplantation (years) Percentsurvival arteriolar hyalinosis 0 20 40 60 80 100 ah=0 ah=1 1 5 10 15 20 p<0.0001ah=2-3 275 136 79 ah=0 ah=1 ah=2-3 N at risk 241 112 57 183 83 37 91 24 9 Time after transplantation (years) Percentsurvivalase 20 0.0001 ears) glomerulosclerosis 0 20 40 60 80 100 gs=0 gs=1 gs=2 1 5 10 15 20 p=0.0009 334 122 35 gs=0 gs=1 gs=2-3 N at risk 283 100 28 217 69 17 101 19 5 Time after transplantation (years) Percentsurvival vascular intimal thickening 0 20 40 60 80 100 cv=0 cv=1 1 5 10 15 20 p=0.008cv=2-3 393 58 37 cv=0 cv=1 cv=2-3 N at risk 336 47 28 251 35 16 114 6 5 Time after transplantation (years) Percentsurvival
  • 16. Clustering analysis illustrates collation of chronic injury in the same biopsies Sis et al Am J Transplant 2010
  • 17. Unsupervised clustering analysis illustrates collation of chronic injury in the same biopsies Naesens M et al Am J Transplant 2012 i t ti v g ptc C4dptc C4dglom ci ct ah mm cv gs cg r -1 1 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 t iv C4d ptc C4d glom g ci ct cg ah cv mm ptc ti gs PC1 (23.9% of variance) PC2(18.9%ofvariance) Chronic histological damage Inflammation and C4d deposition Transplant glomerulopathy
  • 18. Unsupervised clustering analysis illustrates collation of chronic injury in the same biopsies Naesens M et al Am J Transplant 2012 i t ti v g ptc C4dptc C4dglom ci ct ah mm cv gs cg r -1 1 Graft survival 0 20 40 60 80 100 No chronic damage Chronic damage 1 2 5 10 15 20 P<0.0001 Time after transplantation (years) Death-censoredgraft survival
  • 19. Co-clustering of different histological lesions is the consequence of their pathophysiology From Nankivell and Chapman Transplantation 2006 Interstitial fibrosisTubular atrophy Glomerulo- sclerosis cv / ah
  • 20. Transplant glomerulopathy doesn’t correlate well with to the other chronic lesions Naesens M et al Am J Transplant 2012 i t ti v g ptc C4dptc C4dglom ci ct ah mm cv gs cg r -1 1
  • 21. Early transplant glomerulopathy leads to rapid graft failure Naesens et al Am J Transplant 2012
  • 22. Transplant glomerulopathy independently associates with proteinuria Naesens et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2015 (In press) Proteinuria(g/24h)
  • 23. Transplant glomerulopathy and proteinuria interact with each other From Naesens et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2015 (In press) 1 5 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 Time after biopsy (years) Death-censoredgraftsurvival(%) No cg - proteinuria <1.0g/24 h No cg - proteinuria >1.0g/24h log-rank P<0.0001 Cg - proteinuria <1.0g/24 h Cg - proteinuria >1.0g/24h
  • 25. CNIs are a major contributor to decreased renal function after nonrenal TX cyclosporine tacrolimus Acute CNI nephrotoxicity Chronic CNI nephrotoxicity
  • 26. Calcineurin inhibitor nephrotoxicity was suggested as primary cause of chronic injury Nankivell et al New Engl J Med 2003
  • 27. CNI avoidance trials were not very successful Sharif et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2011
  • 28. Calcineurin inhibitor nephrotoxicity was suggested as primary cause of chronic injury Snanoudj et al Am J Transplant 2011 0 1 2 3 4 mean ah grade 3 months 12 months 10 years p=0.8 p=0.01 p<0.0001 No CNI Cyclosporine 0 1 2 3 mean IFTA grade 3 months 12 months 10 years p=0.01 p=0.02 p<0.0005 No CNI Cyclosporine
  • 29. Donor age associates with chronic injury already at time of transplantation (baseline bx) De Vusser K et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2013 N=548 baseline biopsies
  • 30. Donor age (and renal senescence) are a primary cause of chronic injury Naesens M et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2009 Donor age > 60 yrs Donor age 40-60 yrs Donor age < 40 yrs
  • 31. Development of chronic CNI nephrotoxicity is dependent on donor age Legendre et al Clin Transplant 2007
  • 32. TCMR increases chronic injury in subsequent biopsies Nankivell et al Transplantation 2004
  • 33. Development of chronic injury determines outcome of TCMR No AR AR + 1-y IFTA=0 AR + 1-y IFTA=1 AR + 1-y IFTA=2-3 AR + 1-y IFTA>0 + i AR + 1-y cg>0 El Ters et al Am J Transplant 2013
  • 34. mRNA in histologically normal biopsies at 6 months Affymetrix HG U133 microarray signature Prediction of CADI by 24 months Naesens, Butte, Sarwal et al. Kidney Int 2011 Low CADI High CADI 0.50 0.75 Histology at 24 months 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 AUC = 0.82 p = 0.008 T cell proliferation 100% - Specificity% Sensitivity(%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 B cell proliferation AUC = 0.88 p = 0.002 100% - Specificity%Sensitivity(%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 AUC = 0.83 p = 0.006 NK cell activation 100% - Specificity% Sensitivity(%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 AUC = 0.92 p = 0.0005 Dendritic cell migration 100% - Specificity% Sensitivity(%) Low CADI High CADI 0.50 0.75 Histology at 24 months B Data-driven analysis of unexplained progression of chronic injury
  • 35. Naesens et al Kidney Int 2011 Fehr et al Kidney Int 2011 Drachenberg et al Kidney Int 2012 O’Connell et al (GOCAR study) – undergoing review “Subtle inflammation” IHC for immune cells?? • Molecular microscope for diagnosis of “subtle inflammation”
  • 36. Chronic ABMR is preceded by microcirculation inflammation From Lerut et al Transplantation 2007
  • 37. Transplant glomerulopathy is preceded by subclinical ABMR Loupy et al J Am Soc Nephrol 2015
  • 38. Chronic injury Prevale nce Impact Causes Clinical use - Surrogate endpoint for intervention studies - Target for treatment - Treatment decisions
  • 39. The optimal surrogate endpoint requires a simple causal relation Disease Surrogate endpoint Clinical endpoint Intervention
  • 40. The optimal surrogate endpoint requires a simple causal relation Transplantation Graft loss Better AR prevention
  • 41. The optimal surrogate endpoint requires a simple causal relation Transplantation TCMR Graft loss Better AR prevention
  • 42. The optimal surrogate endpoint requires a simple causal relation Transplantation eGFR Graft loss Better AR prevention
  • 43. Budde et al Lancet 2011; Budde et al Am J Transplant 2014 eGFR as surrogate endpoint in renal transplantation? 5-year graft loss: 2.1% in CsA group 2.6% in EVR group P = 1.00 Z ZEUS trial
  • 44. Rostaing, Vincenti et al Am J Transplant 2013 eGFR as surrogate endpoint in renal transplantation? 5-year graft loss: 5% in CsA group 5-6% in BELA group P = NS Belatacept LI Belatacept MI Cyclosporine BENEFIT trial
  • 45. BELA MI BELA LI CsA 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Acute rejection incidence 14% 9% 6% BELA MI BELA LI CsA 0 50 100 eGFR (mL/min/1.73m2) BELA MI BELA LI CsA 0% 50% 100% Graft loss at 3 years 95% 96% 95% BELA MI BELA LI CsA 0 50 100 IFTA grade > 0 at 1 year 19% 20% 44% From Vincenti et al New Engl J Med 2005;Vincenti et al Am J Transplant 2010; Rostaing et al Am J Transplant 2013 The BENEFIT trial shows uncoupling of acute rejection from eGFR and from failure *** * *** * *** *
  • 46. The optimal surrogate endpoint requires a simple causal relation TCMR Graft loss Innovative prevention/ treatment IFTA Donor age/senescenc e CNI nephrotoxicity Ischemia/reperf usion Reflux nephropathy…
  • 47. Transplant glomerulopathy as surrogate endpoint for treatment of ABMR ABMR Graft loss Innovative prevention/treatment Transplant glomerulopathy
  • 48. Prevention of fibrosis is a specific target for treatment in kidney transplantation Tampe and Zeisberg, Nat Rev Nephrol 2014
  • 49. Extensive IFTA could be used to withhold treatment Naesens et al Unpublished data Death-censored graft survival 1 5 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 Time after indication biopsy (years) Percentsurvival TCMR, IFTA 0/1, untreated TCMR, IFTA 0/1, treated
  • 50. Death-censored graft survival 1 5 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 Time after indication biopsy (years) Percentsurvival TCMR, IFTA 0/1, untreated TCMR, IFTA 0/1, treated TCMR, IFTA 2/3, untreated TCMR, IFTA 2/3, treated Extensive IFTA could be used to withhold treatment Naesens et al Unpublished data
  • 51. Chronic injury Prevale nce Impact Causes Clinical use - Surrogate endpoint for intervention studies - Target for treatment - Treatment decisions Conclusion