A profile of Thunder Bay, Ontario and comparison with its peer regions across North America. Prepared by Ronnie Sanders and Patrick Adler of the Martin Prosperity Institute as part of TVOntario's AgendaCamp series on Ontario's changing economy.

1. A Brief Prosperity Profile of
Thunder Bay, Ontario
Ronnie Sanders and Patrick Adler
Research Associates
February 8, 2009

2. Outline / Approach
1. Present Benchmark Peers
2. Describe Selected Measures
a. Some “Lagging”
b. Some “Leading”
3. Get Your Thinking
Where does Thunder Bay
rank?
4. Discussion
2

3. Benchmark Peers
3

4. Peer Selection
Battle Creek, MI
•
14 peer states/
• Bloomington, IL
provinces for
• College Station, TX
Ontario based on
• Kelowna, BC
population.
• Mount Vernon, WA
• Rocky Mount, NC
10 cities/regions
• Sherbrooke, QC
selected with
• State College, PA
populations
• Trois-Rivieres, QC
approximately the
same as Thunder
Bay.
4

5. Technology
5

6. Technology
“A high technology base is both a
necessary condition for and a result
of a region having a strong creative
economy.
Being known as a quot;high-techquot; region
helps to attract the creative
workforce, which, in turn, generates
new technologies making the region
even more high-tech.”

7. Technology
“Tech Pole” Index (based on Milken Institute)
•
– Share of total US/Canada “high technology”
– Regional concentration of “high tech” among all industries
Combination allows smaller, tech-intensive
•
regions to score well
US & Canada, based on total employment
•
7

8. Tech-Pole Index: Where does Thunder Bay
rank?
Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)
•
Peer Average: 0.021
•
Lowest peer score: 0.002 (Battle Creek, MI)
•
Highest peer score: 0.079 (State College, PA)
•
• Where does Thunder Bay
rank?
–Top 3?
–Bottom 3?
–Middle 5?
8

9. Tech-Pole Index: Thunder Bay “Middle 5”
North American Tech Pole Index
Toronto, ON and Peer Regions, 2006
State College, PA 0.079
Sherbrooke , QC 0.035
Kelowna, BC 0.030
Rocky Mount, NC 0.018
College Station, TX 0.018
Thunder Bay, ON 0.013
Trois-Rivières, QC 0.012
Bloomington, IL 0.008
Mount Vernon, WA 0.004
Dalton, GA 0.002
Battle Creek, MI 0.002
9

10. Talent
10

11. Talent
“The concentration of people in the
Creative and Super Creative Classes,
has a stronger relationship with
economic growth.
Creative people don't just cluster
where the jobs are. They cluster in
places that are centers of creativity
and also where they like to live.
Places need a people climate -- or a
creativity climate -- as well as a
business climate.”

12. Talent
“BA and above”
•
Percent of population 25 and older with a
•
bachelor’s (4-year) university degree or higher
(masters, graduate, PhD)
12

13. Talent Index: Where does Thunder Bay rank?
Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)
•
Peer Average: 22.2%
•
Lowest peer score: 12.0% (Dalton, GA)
•
Highest peer score: 40.2% (State College, PA)
•
• Where does Thunder Bay
rank?
–Top 3?
–Bottom 3?
–Middle 5?
13

14. Talent Index: Thunder Bay “Bottom 3”
Talent Index (Pop > 25, BA and above)
Thunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006
State College, PA 40.2%
Bloomington, IL 39.8%
College Station, TX 31.2%
Mount Vernon, WA 21.0%
Battle Creek, MI 19.1%
Sherbrooke , QC 18.1%
Rocky Mount, NC 14.9%
Trois-Rivières, QC 14.0%
Thunder Bay, ON 13.0%
Kelowna, BC 12.4%
Dalton, GA 12.0%
14

15. Talent
Now, a “Creative Economy”
•
– Innovation, Thinking, Creativity
“Paid to think”
•
– Everyone has the potential to be creative
Percent of workforce in the “Creative Class”
•
T = Technology and R&D Innovation
A = Arts and Culture
P = Professional and Managerial
E = Educating and Training
15

16. Creative Class: Where does Thunder Bay rank?
Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)
•
Peer Average: 25.4%
•
Lowest peer score: 18.5% (Dalton, GA)
•
Highest peer score: 32.8% (Sherbrooke, QC)
•
• Where does Thunder Bay
rank?
–Top 3?
–Bottom 3?
–Middle 5?
16

17. Creative Class: Thunder Bay “Middle 5”
Creative Class as % of Workforce
Thunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006
Sherbrooke , QC 29.4%
Battle Creek, MI 27.5%
Bloomington, IL 27.1%
Thunder Bay, ON 26.9%
Trois-Rivières, QC 26.8%
Kelowna, BC 25.7%
College Station, TX 24.9%
Mount Vernon, WA 23.6%
Rocky Mount, NC 22.3%
State College, PA 21.2%
Dalton, GA 18.5%
17

18. Tolerance / Inclusiveness
18

19. Tolerance / Inclusiveness
“Diversity has become a politically
charged buzzword. To some it is an
ideal and rallying cry, to others a
Trojan-horse concept that has
brought us affirmative action and
other liberal abominations.
Creative Class people use the word
often, but not to press any political hot
buttons. Diversity is simply something
they value in all its manifestations.”

20. Tolerance / Inclusiveness
Mosaic Index
•
Percent of population foreign born
•
Immigrants generate growth and are a sign or
•
regional “openness”
20

21. Mosaic Index: Where does Thunder Bay rank?
Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)
•
Peer Average: 8.1%
•
Lowest peer score: 2.2% (Trois-Rivieres, QC)
•
Highest peer score: 15.0% (Dalton, GA)
•
• Where does Thunder Bay
rank?
–Top 3?
–Bottom 3?
–Middle 5?
21

22. Mosaic Index: Thunder Bay “Middle 5”
Mosaic Index (% Pop)
Thunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006
Dalton, GA 15.0%
Kelowna, BC 14.6%
College Station, TX 10.9%
Thunder Bay, ON 10.3%
Mount Vernon, WA 10.1%
State College, PA 6.9%
Sherbrooke , QC 5.5%
Bloomington, IL 4.7%
Rocky Mount, NC 3.4%
Battle Creek, MI 3.1%
Trois-Rivières, QC 2.2%
22

23. Population Growth
23

24. Population Growth
Percent growth/decline in total population
•
Between 2001 and 2006
•
24

25. Population Growth: Where does Thunder Bay
rank?
Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)
•
Peer Average: 6.1%
•
Lowest peer score: 0.0% (Battle Creek, MI)
•
Highest peer score: 12.4% (Mount Vernon, WA)
•
• Where does Thunder Bay
rank?
–Top 3?
–Bottom 3?
–Middle 5?
25

26. 3”
Population Growth: Thunder Bay “Bottom
Population Growth
Thunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, (00-05)
Mount Vernon, WA 12.4%
Dalton, GA 12.0%
Kelowna, BC 9.8%
Bloomington, IL 7.2%
College Station, TX 6.4%
Sherbrooke , QC 6.3%
State College, PA 3.8%
Trois-Rivières, QC 2.9%
Rocky Mount, NC 2.3%
Thunder Bay, ON 0.8%
Battle Creek, MI 0.0%
26

27. Discussion /
Summary
27

28. For More Information
Peer Peer Peer Provincial/State
Summary Statistics Thunder Bay, ON Minimum Average Maximum Average
123,000 115,700 150,000 197,000 546,000
Total Population, 2006
$5,000
GDP (CAD millions) 2006 $5,000 $6,000 $9,000 $29,000
41.8 25.7 36.6 43.8 37.5
Median Age, 2006
Overall Cost of Living Index 102.8 92.5 104.3 131.4 101.5
Thunder Peer Peer Peer Peer Provincial/State
Overall Performance Bay, ON Ranking Minimum Average Maximum Average
Population Growth (00-05) 0.8% 10 0% 5.8% 12.4% 5.7%
-3.4% 10 -3.6% 4.8% 19.9% 9.3%
Job Growth (00-05)
GDP per capita, 2006 $43,000 6 $35,500 $45,000 $58,200 $45,000
Change in Average Wage (00-05) -2.4% 8 -11.2% -2.2% 3.7% 0.1%
Creativity Index 0.46 5 0.24 0.44 0.66 N/A
Thunder Peer Peer Peer Peer Provincial/State
Technology Bay, ON Ranking Minimum Average Maximum Average
Total Patents, 2005 2 11 2 18 42 517
Patents per 10,000, 2005 0.16 10 0.14 1.17 2.98 2.46
Patent Growth, Short Term (00-05) -3.3% 10 -4.5% 10.8% 56.7% -0.5%
North American High Tech LQ, 2006 0.51 6 0.22 0.58 1.54 0.63
North American Tech Pole Index 0.013 6 0.002 0.020 0.079 0.189
Thunder Peer Peer Peer Peer Provincial/State
Talent Bay, ON Ranking Minimum Average Maximum Average
Creative Class as % of Workforce, 2006 26.9% 4 18.5% 24.9% 29.4% 26.1%
Super Creative Core as % of Workforce, 2006 14.7% 5 5.6% 11.9% 16.3% 11.0%
Pop > 25, Above High School below BA, 2006 58.2% N/A 51.7% 58.2% 65.5% 59.0%
Talent Index (Pop > 25, BA and above), 2006 13.0% 9 12.0% 21.4% 40.2% 21.7%
Pop > 25, Graduate and/or Professional Degree, 2006 3.5% 9 3.4% 7.8% 20.5% 7.5%
Brain Drain/Gain Index, 2006 0.63 6 0.00 0.69 1.28 N/A
Thunder Peer Peer Peer Peer Provincial/State
Tolerance Bay, ON Ranking Minimum Average Maximum Average
Visible Minorities (% Pop), 2006 2.7% 5 0.0% 5.2% 28.1% 11.1%
Mosaic Index (% Pop), 2006 10.3% 4 2.2% 7.9% 15.0% 7.9%
Gay and Lesbian Index, 2006 0.77 5 0.64 0.79 1.03 0.81
Bohemian Index, 2006 0.67 3 0.16 0.46 1.05 0.69
0.76 0.92 N/A
Integration Index, 2006 0.83 6 1
Thunder Peer Peer Peer Peer
Territorial Assets Bay, ON Ranking Minimum Average Maximum
Social and Cultural Assets
Arts and Cultural Establishments per 10,000, 2006 1.95 3 0.22 1.36 2.22
Resturants and Bars per 1,000, 2006 1.83 7 1.46 1.90 2.40
Student/Teacher Ratio, 2006 14.50 4 13.58 15.83 22.17
Doctor's per 1,000, 2006 0.81 5 0.00 1.13 3.42
Civic Assets
Federal Voter Turnout (%), 2004/2006 62% 5 40% 59% 66%
Voilent and Property Crime per Capita, 2006 0.09 10 0.02 0.06 0.12
Housing and Transportation Assets
Population Density (KM2), 2006 48 9 25.34 71.67 160.76
Median Housing Value to Income Ratio, 2005 2.42 1 2.42 3.51 7.14
28 Drivers per Other Modes, 2006 9.77 3 4.84 28.69 169.98

29. For More Information
• Richard Florida’s books
– “The Rise of the Creative Class”
– “The Flight of the Creative Class”
– “Who’s Your City?”
• martinprosperity.org
• creativeclass.com
29

30. Thank You
Ronnie Sanders
Ronnie.Sanders@rotman.utoronto.ca
Patrick Adler
Patrick.Adler@rotman.utoronto.ca