The future presentation focused on K-12 education in Albnerta

1. The Future Isn't a
Straight Line from
the Past -
Challenge and
Change and the
Future of Learning
Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA

2. This Presentation
A Brief History of
the Future – 12
Pieces of the Jigsaw
1
The Specific
Challenge for
Alberta
2
What You Might
Think About..
3

3. “The future isn’t what it used to be” Yogi Berra
“The future will be better tomorrow” Vice President Dan
Quayle
“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future..”
Niels Bohr

4. Demographics
 As baby boomers retire the dependency ratio
changes – in Canada from 4:1 to 2:1 by 2030
 Some regions of Canada growing quickly – Alberta is
one
 Indigenous peoples also growing – a growing and
significant part of the Canadian workforce.
 Some countries below population replacement –
especially Japan
 Others rapidly growing – especially in Asia, China
 Immigration essential in many countries – Canada
needs to double its immigration to “stay the same” – 1
million by 2021 is already on the agenda

5. Shifting Global Economies – Shift Happens
 424 major cities in the world will generate
75% of the world’s GDP – 325 of these are in
Asia
 New middle class (2.5 billion by 2050) –
almost entirely in Asia / India / Africa
 50% of the world’s $1 billion companies are
headquartered in Asia – more to come

6. Globalization
 MOOCs: 81.5 million individuals
registered for one of 9,500
MOOCs from 800+ universities
and colleges in 2017
 Supply chains are global – look
at the BMW Mini. 300 options for
exterior trim -
15,000,000,000,000,000 possible
combinations.
 Parts delivered to Oxford Just in
Time 0 – enough for 1 shift.
3,600 parts in a standard Mini
(up to 4,875 in a Mini Cooper S)
– from 47 countries.

7. Planet in Peril
 9.5 billion people on planet Earth by 2050
 If we continue current behaviours, we will need 3 planets to
supply this population
 Already experiencing challenges about water, climate, extreme
weather events
 Environmental challenges are real and urgent

8. Rapid Advances in Technologies
 Artificial Intelligence
 3D Printing enabling adaptive manufacturing
 Stem-Cell Therapies and Gene Splicing
 Robotics
 Blockchain
 Human Implants – Cognitive Implants
 Neuroplasticity and Cognitive Science

11. Technology Will
Impact Work..
 30-40% of all current work will
be impacted by one or more of
these technologies
 Some jobs will disappear, new
jobs will emerge
 Some workers with low level
cognitive skills will not find work
 We will all have to dance with
robots and share our intelligence
with machines

12. New Forms of Organizations
 Industrial corporations are being replaced by business web
organizations – Amazon and Uber are more common models
than Proctor and Gamble
 Global businesses are:
 Aggregators and brokers
 Networked supply chains
 Using gig labour and smart technologies
 Moving goods and people faster than the tax authorities can find
them
 Disrupting assumptions about how work gets done..

13. The New Economy is
the Gig Economy
 20% of the Australian workforce are in the gig
economy – in Canada and the UK this figure is
approaching 40% (in Alberta it is 17%)
 Gig economy growing 12x faster than formal
employment
 The UK has zero hours contracts…
 Many millennials and iGen’s do not intend to
pursue full time work – looking for work : life
balance

14. Austerity and Recession
 US, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, and Canada)
and two emerging markets (China and India) have a
$400 trillion retirement savings shortfall that will
become growingly evident and at crisis point in 2050.
 Total debt from all sources (government, corporate,
personal, etc.) is currently US$249 trillion.
 In the US, to deliver current levels of public services
(everything from education to health care to
pensions) to the projected population in 2030,
taxpayers will need to find an additional US$940
billion. In the UK, they’ll need to find another US$170
billion, and in Canada they’ll need to find another
US$90 billion.
“We no longer have business cycles – we have debt cycles”

15. Growing
Inequality
 Canada is experiencing growing
inequality – our top 100 CEO’s
earn the average Canadian wage
($49,510) by 11:47 a.m. on
January 3—the first working day
of the year.
 Fewer than 90 families in Canada
hold roughly as much wealth as
everyone living in Newfoundland
and Labrador, New Brunswick
and Prince Edward Island
collectively owns.

16. Identity and
Meaning
 1 in 5 in the US report being
lonely
 18% of young people in the UK
report ”life is not worth living”
 Mental health issues – especially
for teens – growing
 Identity and meaning from work,
family, community are all
changing
 Compassion and empathy in
decline as is spirituality
 Meaning cannot be found in
“stuff” but in purpose and
compassion

17. Then We Have Alberta..
Specific Challenges

18. Alberta Economy..
 Alberta 9th wealthiest jurisdiction in the world
by GDP per capita
 GDP growth strong at 2.4% (2018) but
expected to slow in 2019
 Oil and gas highly profitable and more
efficient than ever before – uses fewer
people to achieve better results
 Unemployment at 6.4% - 2.3 million in work
 Farming showing strain – especially grain,
cattle, wheat
 Forestry also showing lower production and
sales
 Bankruptcies up 6.7%
 Government debt as a % of GDP at 10.9 is
amongst the lowest in the developed world
($10,247 per capita) - Germany is 64% of
GDP / $28,356 per capita

19. Developments in Education In Canada
 School Boards abolished in New Brunswick
(1996) Newfoundland and Labrador (2018)
and PEI (2015)
 Quebec has made clear it intends to abolish
them in 2019-20.
 BC / Saskatchewan has “neutered” school
boards, giving significant power to the
Minister to intervene
 Unions challenged in Canada –
Saskatchewan, Manitoba, BC, Ontario – UPC
policy is to split the ATA
 No real partnership between Government of
Alberta and the ATA – on paper yes, in
practice….
 Gradual shift towards GERM and away from
equity-based policies – Ontario leading this
shift, but others not far behind

20. Alberta Education
 PISA results strong – Alberta is 1st in Canada
and a top performing nation
 Experiencing real growth in student volumes –
growing by 2.1% per annum to 2041
 Education spending (K-12) expected to be $8.5
billion in 2019-20 and $9 billion in 2020/21 –
lowest rate of spending growth in Canada,
spending down per capita since 2009/10
 Class size, inclusion, public assurance,
assessment and curriculum are the current
obsessions
 Auditor General (2018) noted the lack of
effective management of class-size funding
 Major curriculum change Grades 5-12 to be
signed off 2019-2022
 No work on assessment related to the new
curriculum – new curriculum / old assessment –
go figure!
 Biggest challenge: literacy – 49% of those who
complete PIAAC in 2013 were at Level 1 and 2
literacy – 95% of all jobs advertised since 2013
require Levels 3-5.

21. Future Scenarios

22. Government Takes All
 Preoccupation with institutional policy changes (i.e. curriculum review, standards of practice) are
offered by government as substitutes for addressing systemic unsustainable teaching and
learning conditions
 Schools get more blame for economic failures
 Pressure to support GERM grows
 Government decides it needs more hands-on control of school systems
 School board rationalization, ATA split and “the union” is seen to be “part of the problem” not
part of the solution
 Funding increasingly tied to outcomes and performance

23. Status Quo with Less
 The ‘PISIfiction’ of teaching and learning: teachers’ practice informed by research is increasingly
hollowed-out by growing influence of the PISA, PIAAC, TIMSS etc.
 League tables, high stakes testing and teacher quality assessments focus attention on “results”
and “performance”
 Performance pay for teachers
 Budget cuts so as to "balance the budget” – system rationalizations

24. A Designed Future
 Substantive reforms in early learning and investments to support inclusion and social cohesion
create optimal conditions for teaching and learning including investments to support school
networks of innovation focussed on equity.
 True partnership between teachers, school boards and government
 Role of government is to create a frame and provide funds, school boards create momentum but
schools are the key focal points for local decisions
 Data is used by teachers for learning not by systems for fund allocation

25. You Might Want to
Think About

26. Some
Possibilities..
 Significant budget reductions post 2019 election –
8-15%
 Continued economic and social change and their
implications for the focus for learning – the new
curriculum will be out of date at launch
 Emerging pedagogy – technology enabled,
blended learning – and the implications of these
developments for professional development
 Growing complexity of classrooms in Alberta –
class size and inclusion growing issues
 Shifting expectation of employers and parents
(especially immigrant parents)..
 Disruption following teacher action if an attempt
is made to split the ATA
 PISA envy coming again to a jurisdiction near
you…

27. So The Big
Picture..
 It’s a time of significant change..
 More change to come…
 It’s what we live for, right!
 The key – focused and strategic
leadership…