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Alan F. Hamlet
•JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group
•Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
Effects of Projected Climate Change
on the Hydrology of the Puget Sound
Region
Global Climate Change Scenarios
for the PNW
Mote, P.W. and E. P. Salathe Jr., 2010: Future climate in the Pacific Northwest, Climatic
Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9848-z
21st
Century Climate Impacts for the Pacific Northwest Region
Seasonal Precipitation Changes for the Pacific Northwest
http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/wacciach1scenarios642.pdf
Hydrologic Projections
297
Streamflow
Sites
• Provide a wide range of
products to address multiple
stakeholder needs
• Increase spatial and
temporal resolution
• Provide a large ensemble of
climate scenarios to assess
uncertainties
• Address hydrologic
extremes (e.g. Q100 and
7Q10)
Columbia Basin Climate Change
Scenarios Project
Goals and Objectives
http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/
Mixed Rain and Snow (Warm):
Nisqually River at La Grande Dam
SWE Runoff
Changes in Hydrologic Extremes
2040s Changes in Flood Risk
Nisqually River at La Grande
A1B B1
Historical
10 Member Ensemble
Using the Hybrid Delta
Downscaling Approach
A1B B1
2040s Changes in Flood Risk
Nisqually River at La Grande
Historical
10 Member Ensemble
Using the Hybrid Delta
Downscaling Approach
Related Impacts
Mass Balance of the Nisqually Glacier
http://faculty.washington.edu/scporter/Rainierglaciers.html
1997
1910
http://www.abbegeomorphology.com/?p=69
Sediment Impacts in the Nisqually Headwaters
Water Resources Management and Structures
Alder Dam
Effects to Stream Temperature
Mantua, N., I. Tohver, A.F. Hamlet, 2010: Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime
stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State,
Climatic Change, online first, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9845-2
Nicholls, R. J. and Cazenave, A. (2010) Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal
Zones. Science 328, 1517-1520
Sea Level Rise

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Hamlet south sound_symp_oct_2010

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. B1 reflects significant greenhouse gas mitigation by the mid 21st century (low emissions scenario). A1B reflects significant greenhouse gas mitigation by the end of the 21st Century (medium emissions scenario). Error bars are 5th percentile and 95th percentile.
  2. The CBCCSP provides complete primary data coverage over the Columbia River basin and coastal drainages in OR and WA. Note that the northern part of the Klamath basin (which drains to CA) is not included. Summary hydrologic products for 297 streamflow locations (selected by the study partners) are supported by the study.
  3. The central tendency of the estimated future 100 year flood (Q100) is about 20% higher than the historical number for the A1B emissions scenario. In this case the central tendency of the ensemble is roughly equal to the composite delta analysis (using the average of all the climate model changes in temperature and precipitation). In some other instances these analyses are substantially different. The uncertainty estimate deriving from the 10-member Hybrid Delta ensemble supports the conclusion that Q100 will increase (e.g. ~98% confidence), but that higher or lower flood risk is possible. These uncertainties are strongly related to decadal precipitation variability in each model simulation. So these uncertainties strongly reflect the differences from decade-to-decade that we have observed in historical records, as opposed to uncertainties in the systematic nature of the global warming signal (e.g. warmer, wetter winters)
  4. The river bed has risen 38 ft since 1910. Paul Kennard