Nov 2013 International Energy Agency reports Fossil Fuel Emissions and World Energy Outlook

1. International Energy Agency reports
November 2013
The world economy has the world
on a fixed fast track
to planetary catastrophe
Peter D Carter

2. 6C trajectory
We are still on the
6°C by 2100
literal end of the world
scenario
6°C of
warming
by 2100

3. Looking at the end of the world
2035
2013 -2935
1990-2012
1960-1989
1900
1900-1929
1930-1959

4. International Energy Agency 2013
November
3013
November 2013

5. No reduction in fossil fuel share of
world energy mix
‘ Fossil fuels still account for most – over 80% – of the world energy supply.
Since 1870, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion have risen exponentially.
The 2012 concentration of CO2 (394 ppmv) was about 40% higher than in the mid1800s, with an average growth of 2 ppmv/year in the last ten years.
Significant increases have also occurred in levels of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide
(N2O).
Despite the growth of non-fossil energy (such as nuclear and hydropower), considered
as non-emitting, the share of fossil fuels within the world energy supply is relatively
unchanged over the past 40 years.
In 2011, fossil sources accounted for 82% of the global energy supply.’
International Energy Agency Nov 2013

6. CO2 emissions from fuel combustion continue
to rise exponentially.
To
total
planetary
catastrophe
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge, United States.
International Energy Agency Nov 2013

7. Fossil fuels still account for
over 80% of the world energy supply.
CO2
emissions
CO2
emissions
from fuel
combustion
continue
to rise
exponentially.
International Energy Agency
Nov 2013

8. Little change in sectoral emissions
since 1971
CO2
emissions
1971
International Energy Agency
Nov 2013

9. No decrease in fossil fuel or coal
emissions mix since 1971
International Energy
Agency Nov 2013
CO2
emissions
Other
1971 2011

10. International Energy Agency
World Energy Outlook 2013

11. Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in 2012
Estimates of ultimately recoverable resources of oil continue to increase as technologies unlock
types of resources, such as light tight oil, that were not considered recoverable only a few
years ago.
Our latest estimates for remaining recoverable resources show 2 670 billion barrels of
conventional oil (including NGLs), 345 billion of light tight oil, 1 880 billion of extra-heavy oil
and bitumen, and 1 070 billion of kerogen oil.
Fossil fuels continue to dominate the power sector, although their share of
generation declines from 68% in 2011 to 57% in 2035.
Coal remains the largest source of generation
Coal-fired generation rebounds in the short term in the United States
Biofuels use triples

12. Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to
$544 billion in 2012 !!!

18. Very modest increase in clean energy

19. CO2 emissions from the power sector rise from
13.0 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2011 to
15.2 Gt in 2035,
retaining a share of around 40% of global emissions
over the period.

21. Peter D Carter