Het PIM Marketing Trend Report 2011

1. Unreasonable PeopleDetermine Our FutureLooking out for trends which will influence our marketing practicePIM Marketing Trend Report

2. Content 2 Page Content 2 Foreword 3 Focus Trend Report 4 PIM Marketing Trend Watchers 2011 5 Trend 1 Unreasonable People 6 Trend 2 It Is Not The Media Who Are Social – People Are! 7 Trend 3 The Employee And Social Media 11 Trend 4 Total Commitment 13 Trend 5 Total Transparency 16 Trend 6 The Theory Of The Commons 20 Trend 7 Sustainability 24 Trend 8 From Sustainable To Meaningful Business 27 Trend 9 The Social Supply Chain: Profiting From Collaborative Anarchy 31 Trend 10 Mind Shift 39 Trend 11 Trans-sectoral Learning 42 Trend 12 The Customer Marketing Machine 45 Trend 13 Cross-Customer Contact 48 Trend 14 Third Generation Serious Gaming 49 Trend 15 BRIC Countries Beyond Development 53 Sharing Knowledge Together 56 PIM Marketing Trend Watchers 2011 – Topics / Contact 57 Our Sponsors 58

3. Foreword We have spoken to managers, entrepreneurs, politicians, the press and scientists. We have discussed their views on prevailing trends. We will continue this discussion with you, not only during the monthly meetings but also at other PIM events – such as the Marketer of the Year Award, the Marketing Science Award and the Marketing Literature Award. The educational projects we support with partners such as Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Beeckestijn Business School, Ecabo, and Hogeschool van Utrecht complete the picture. Although we're coming out of a recession, we’re not there yet. Consumers have spent their budget in various ways. Disposable income will be spent more judiciously. Will companies once more pay enough attention to marketing in 2011 after years of cost reduction? The assignment for Peter Gouw, as editor of the Marketing Trend Report 2011, was to describe what your company needs to do to use the present situation to maximise your interests, using statistics, global research and best practice. I hope this report will help you, the reader, to further professionalise your marketing results for 2011. We as "Platform Innovatie in Marketing” see this report as our raison d’être. I hope you enjoy reading it! Drs. Hans Molenaar Chairman Platform Innovatie in Marketing What will 2011 bring? What you have in front of you is the PIM Marketing Trend Report 2011. It is the seventh time Platform Innovatie in Marketing (PIM) has published a report like this. It is meant to be food for thought, discussion and reflection. Its purpose is to help marketers make better decisions and provide guidelines for their work. It is not a ‘ how-to’ manual. It is, however, indicative, case-based and contains a lot of valuable statistics. Thinking and talking is not enough: it is also about action. At PIM there is a continuous, healthy debate about developments in the marketing field, a debate which we want to share with you! We combine the ordinary practice of science and research. One of the services we provide is the PIM Marketing Trend Report. The aim of this report is not to give a complete overview of all the trends in marketing, but to shed light on the most relevant marketing trends that will impact our work during 2011. The report looks at today’s trends - trends that are observable and tangible - and discusses what is going on now and what will be important in the short term. This is why this report has been written. This is in line with Platform Innovatie in Marketing’s vision and mission: that is, to recognise and monitor the most important and distinctive marketing trends and share our knowledge with you. As always, the report will be distributed to PIM members and others involved in innovation in marketing. Peter Gouw is the report’s editor. A record number of other marketers have also contributed to the report! Thank you all! Other PIM board members: Peter Oosterling – Peter Verhagen – Frans Appels – Rudmer Bosma – Arend-Jan Nijhuis 3

5. Providing Business to Business (B2B) rather than Business to Consumer (B2C) cases to explain trends and inspire you. Peter Gouw Editors Egbert Jan van Bel Prof. dr. Rudy Moenaert Prof. dr. Henry Robben Hans Molenaar Arend-Jan Nijhuis Jan Havermans Colophon January 25, 2011 Design by 707bc Translation by A. Beasley-Suffolk Publisher: Platform Innovatie in Marketing Price per copy 95 Euro incl. VAT Free copy PowerPoint download for PIM members 4

6. PIM Marketing Trend Watchers 2011 Egbert Jan van Bel Beeckestijn Business School Jean-Paul Schaddé van Dooren Strategic & Creative Marketer Nathalie Soeteman Power2improve Peter Gouw GfK / AiMark Brigitte de Leeuw Profit Marketing Dick Ettema & Allain Silbernberg Bite the lemon Raymond Hannes Creative mind Durk Bosma DBMI Rob Adams Six Fingers René van Leeuwen i-lion Peter Heshof Bloom Jasper Roos Dialogues Incubator & Thomas Verhagen Dialogues House Marc van Lieshout MC² Marketing Communicatie en Coaching 5

7. Trend 1 Unreasonable People Are you one of them? Reasonable people adapt to the world. An unreasonable person persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on unreasonable people. The power of unreasonable people is characterised by a new generation of entrepreneurs whose pioneering innovations and courageous leadership have driven remarkable change in the world. They deserve our recognition and support. At present we are facing all types of challenges ranging from financial and economic changes, to power shifts, conflict and environmental issues. We cannot surmount these challenges without the engagement and radical restructuring of business and markets. How can you distinguish your mainstream business? Experiment with new business models Adopt a can-do attitude Track down, study and work alongside can-do innovators and entrepreneurs. Real-world solutions We need business models that provoke (social) and business change. Change and change agents prosper best during periods of extraordinary volatility and disruption. We happen to be just in the middle of this. We should all look out for clues to tomorrow’s revolutionary business models at the fringes of the current dysfunctional system. PIM Marketing Trend Report 2011 Message What can we do to improve our business position significantly in a continuously sustainable way? Let’s listen to some unreasonable people with a strong vision and business sense. vs. 6

8. Trend 2 It Is Not The Media Who Are Social People Are! 2011: social media beyond the hype Twitter takes over eBay. De Telegraaf and Hyves make a bid for Rabobank. Google negotiates with governments in the third world about the creation of and access to online universities. The crisis and social media have shown us that paradigms are shifting more rapidly than ever. But how should we position our organisations for the future in this social media tornado? Serious business If you were in any doubt that social media have come of age, the recent riots in Tunisia must have woken you up. As the Russian glasnost was fuelled by the breakdown of censorship because of the internet, now social media have added speed, 1-on-1 communications and location-based services. The riots in Tunisia spread almost instantaneously all over the country because of mobile social media communications, showing effectively that mobile communication is the social media lifeline. Their political and cultural relevance is clear. But what does this mean for marketers? Many organisations literally respond by simply hiring a grad student ‘to do the Twittering, LinkedIn and Facebook pages’. It explains the sense of urgency, but lacks the strategy. It is clear that social media in one form or other will be part of the marketing mix - with some specific ground rules. Social media policies The young The Voice of Holland (#TVOH) contestant Jennifer Ewbank recently experienced the raw and immoderate judgement of ‘the commons’ on Twitter. A social media study by #ERWWPR (EuroRSCGWorldwidePR) has shown that 43% of online users feel less inhibited while online. We see that the sociographics of social networks vary. Twitter may run the serious risk of turning into an online slum inhabited by virtual bullies, while new ‘velvet rope’ networks will grow, based on their exclusivity and selective admittance. Special interest groups in LinkedIn are a good example of this and can be as big as the TED.com network. Organisations will need to define their social media policy at least once this year. 7

9. Trend 2 It Is Not The Media Who Are Social People Are! computers and become interested in the real world again, and tell you what they think. And there lies the true challenge. Customer service Websites have to be visited, press releases publicised. A good example is KLM, who changed the paradigm of service communications by actively using Twitter to inform its clients about the situation around the ash cloud that covered the airspace above Europe. Turning it into its own channel, KLM gave timely, on-the-spot information and did so repeatedly. Less topical but effective is ING bank, which uses its webcare team to monitor social networks. Scanning relevant terms allows them to operate proactively. Imagine complaining about the bank on Twitter and getting a tweet that solves the problem! ING further extended this into their marketing communications campaign by asking customers to blog their opinions. Next ING started churning out new products on a regular basis using the blog input. A good example of social business? People communicate on social networks any time anywhere, not only while they are working: they also communicate about their work. Guidelines help them determine what is considered appropriate. This also shows an individual is present. Interested to know what you have been doing? Simply type your name on www.wieowie.nl. Content marketing Social media are about sharing and making friends. For marketers keywords are content and conversation marketing. As it takes time to build a friendship, we will have to accept that benefits lie in the near future, not tomorrow. This will be a tough nut to crack in most organisations. Making content portable (apps) is the way to reach large audiences or to engage with them thoroughly. So creating compelling micro content will be high on the skills list of this year’s marketers and creative people. Ok, brace yourselves: whatever we do, whether it's a real-time review, tracking or alerting, we will be followed. With mobile social media and heightened reality, people abandon their 8

10. Trend 2 It Is Not The Media Who Are Social People Are! So it’s not about hiring somebody to manage Twitter or about adding social buttons to your homepage. (By the way the various API’s offer many more possibilities than just a link to your page: newsletter subscription, for instance, without having to enter all your personal data again…! This ‘Making it easy for the customer’ should be your mantra, by the way.) The real challenge is to integrate SM with the real world. Fashion chain WE has a Twitter mirror in some fitting rooms allowing customers to tweet a photo with the new outfit to others. The accessibility of social media also translates into getting more bang-for-the-buck marketing potential for the masses. Hyves, Facebook and others offer targeted reach which until recently had not been available for SMC’s. The same goes for used-to-be high-tech micro-targeting and personalisation. Link that to location-based technology and we are on the verge of personalised offerings based on the consumer’s presence. It is a matter of waiting for the augmented reality Layar killer app to make its way into the mobile crowds. Undoubtedly 2011 will see the start of this location-based revolution. Social Media integration Social business (Kotler 3.0) also means going beyond the actual delivery of products and services, and defines what role organisations play. More often than not it’s the market leaders that inspire. While this position is for the happy few, thanks to Social Media creating thought leadership is equally attainable for smaller organisations. Creating compelling micro content can help organisations quickly take the high ground and claim authority status. Investing in communities centred around a bigger social objective is key here. It is quality over quantity. People expect social relevance (Kotler, Marketing 3.0). Meanwhile, advertising will infiltrate into social public sites. You won’t be able to ignore branded Hyves, Facebook apps, or LinkedIn groups anymore when designing the way you want your company to communicate with its audience. Adding extended product and service search features to Twitter and Facebook will lead to an explosion in the commercial use of these networks. KLM recently sold a fully-booked direct flight to Miami as a result of a bet on Twitter. 9

11. Trend 2 It Is Not The Media Who Are Social People Are! Homo ludens: social gaming This year social gaming is going mainstream. Hyves and the Dutch Spil Games are serving 600,000 online gamers on a daily basis: people who will pay actual money for credits to play and buy virtual amenities ranging from cows to clothes. Sounds like too virtual? Research shows that online gaming is enjoyed by people from all layers of society. People don’t just play. It’s a social game; they chat and exchange. Reason enough for advertisers to tap into this vast resource and lure gamers to sample their products and services for credits, by paying credits for trying their product or by offering their own game within a branded environment. Long tailing & sharing Although made for the masses, people want to feel special and look for customised offerings. Above all they want to share their findings. Fuelled by GPS-enabled mobile phones, location sharing services will break through. Sharing means we can append our whereabouts to any tweet, blog, photo or video we post. So it is going to be sharing in and managing branded communities. Some predict that private branded communities will outperform Facebook. For brand builders, making friends is about activating brand advocates instead of customers. Traditional media are also managing the transition from sending to sharing by integrating social media. They have the scope to successfully create awareness, while providing crowd-sourced content to share. Recent examples are TVOH, A Serious Request and the Beagle. Social investment So if you put in the time to build a strategy, you will reap the rewards over the next two years while others are still fishing for opportunities. This year new media monitoring software will come of age facilitating the shift from experimental to sound metrics. Will it bring accountability to help bridge boardroom scepticism? So, will we see Twitter taking over eBay? Will Hyves/Telegraaf become a bank? We can safely say ‘Not this year’. And the Google cloud? Google is well on its way to becoming the world’s prime information supplier. They are now integrating social search features that allow people not just to search stored data but to link people with specific expertise. Google has understood that it is not the media who are social, but people! 10

12. Trend 3 The Employee And Social Media Look before you leap Their social media activities cost chief of police Gerda Dijksman and TV presenter Cornald Maas their jobs last year. In both cases Twitter was the chosen means. The TROS broadcasting company terminated Maas’ contract after a sarcastic message was posted about Eurovision singer Sieneke. Dijksman was suspended after responding to a fatal accident in a clumsy way. In late 2010 two French employees were laid off because of critical comments they posted about their employers on Facebook. These events raise a number of questions: What can or cannot be published through social media? What do you broadcast to the world? What do you fence off and what do you keep to yourself? And what can your employer expect from you in this area? Some companies prefer to impose rules on their employees’ social media behaviour, which is, in fact, unnecessary. It is enough to point out to staff the consequences of what they do and say online. This is of mutual interest. On Internet it is as in real life: offline. If you call your boss a jerk in the middle of the street, people around you are likely to hear it. It impacts the way they look at and think of you. Your boss could hear it himself. Even if your supervisor does not overhear your opinions when he passes by, your message might reach him or her through a bystander. This is not very convenient, to say the least. After all, what impression do you get of people who slander others? 11

13. Trend 3 The Employee And Social Media Online, the consequences of thoughtless behaviour persist much longer, and are even more severe. Each query term entered comprising your name can result in exposing your trash talk, time and time again. Why? Others could link to it and retweet your messages. As a result, the retrieval of your thoughtless action is further increased. It is not a good idea to leave secrets behind in a taxi on a USB stick or to let the cat out of the bag at a party. On the web, for the reason given above, it is even worse. Look before you leap Ultimately, it comes down to the 3Rs of social media engagement: responsibility, respect and representation. That is, be absolutely clear about whether you are speaking on behalf of your employer or giving your own opinion. In both cases behave responsibly and show respect for others. This benefits both your reputation and that of your employer. 12 In short, in the digital age where everyone can communicate with everyone and everything you publish online can be retrieved for eternity, make sure you 'look before you leap'.

14. Trend 4 Total Commitment The Heart of Business 3.0 After years of economic downturn and drastic cost reduction, customers are grumbling more loudly and clearly than ever. Therefore, 2011 is the year companies will have to start using customer engagement for their own benefit through increased use of employee empowerment. Why? Because, as Marketing legend Philip Kotler says, "In order to remain relevant in Marketing 3.0, companies must approach consumers as humans." How can they do this? By using the power of people’s hearts. The consumer has lost confidence in business. In particular, financial sector trust is still low. Consumers feel they have been betrayed. With the prospect of sky-high bonuses, faceless companies haven't focused on the fulfilment of promises made in campaigns. Instead, they have hidden behind carefully-worded statements and outsourced call centres and endless telephone systems. In this way, they have lost touch with customers and employees. The Dutch still have little confidence in 'oil leaker’ BP. The multinational did not excel in open and honest communication about the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. The relentless criticism on put-up smoke screens and closed communication was mainly reflected in social media. Chief executive Tony Hayward threw in the towel as a result of this media pressure. Nevertheless, nearly five months after the disaster 10 percent of BP customers still say they are less likely to fill up at a BP station. Social media is one of the fastest growing specialties within online marketing. More and more companies are seeing the opportunities of this new form of communication. Many organisations still do not know how to analyse or use online discussion data. According to Harvard Business Review research, as a result most social media continue to send marketing messages. Too bad. Too risky. If you're not careful, you can achieve exactly the opposite of what you are after. Social media are designed for interaction between those who want to share knowledge and help each other. This creates an equal relationship based on commitment. There are no ranks or positions. 13

15. Trend 4 Total Commitment Several studies - including those of Tower and Perrin amongst 40 companies worldwide – have shown that companies whose employees and customers are committed to the company consistently achieve better results, both in terms of operational (19 percent) and shareholder profit (11 percent). Gallup research has found that companies which do well on both customer and employee commitment show the best results: up to 240 percent better than those with low scores. Personal How can you foster employee empowerment? Focus on authenticity, humanity and sustainable relationships within and outside your company. This engenders durable capital. The key to success lies in people, both in customers and employees. The advent of social media has made the world much more personal. Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn have created the possibility to contact people directly, not only official external relationship officials, but all truly committed human beings who are open to this out of personal interest. Customers get involved in a company if its employees are Social media cannot be managed. You cannot control what is said about you or your company. However, you can act in a way that creates positive buzz. You can keep your promises and be open to receiving criticism which you can learn from. In social media anyone can be a spokesperson whether it says so on your business card or not. They provide a wonderful opportunity for your company to show its human side with a large group of employees. The condition for this is that employees feel empowered and free to respond on behalf of their employer. The first doesn’t appear to be the case in most companies. Result According to the 2011 Employee Engagement Report, less than 30 percent of European workers feel really involved with the company they work for and are even less proud of it. This is such a shame, because if they do not believe in their products and services, why should their customers? If you made other choices, your employees and customers could be your best ambassadors. And you can save a lot of marketing budget and reputational costs. 14

16. Trend 4 Total Commitment fans. Forrester asked 5,519 information workers how likely they were to recommend products or services of the company they worked for to their family or friends. Marketers found they were more likely to advise against the use of what they marketed than recommend it (NPS -10). Customer service workers appeared most likely to be detractors, whereas employees working in social media turned out to be the most positive (NPS 26). Almost half (48 percent) strongly recommended the use of their employer’s products and services.Improve your business from the inside. Listen to the input of your staff and customers. Find out what they like about their jobs and what you can do to improve them. Make sure that employees embrace the company’s policy and that management openly supports this in words and deeds. What evidence is there for employees to conclude that their leaders really think it is important to act in the client’s interest? What do they do themselves? Bring the objectives on which employees’ performance is assessed in line with what you want to achieve. Remember: you get what you ask for. involved. Positive contact between customers and employees often has more impact on customer loyalty than a campaign. Furthermore, the humanity you show and the experience you create is difficult to copy. As Rohit Bhargava, author of the award-winning Influential Marketing blog and the book Personality Not Included, says: "Give your business a face and leave clients to contact the people behind your brand." With a little luck, this will result in word-of-mouth advertising.Treat employees the way you want them to treat customers. Give them the opportunity to be human, authentic and gentle. Give them the means to make a difference. Provide them with their own budgets, which they can use to really help customers. Give them a chance to speak from their hearts, to build a continuous emotional bond with the company, with each other and with their customers. This way they can help restore lasting confidence. Fans Doing this, doesn’t mean you're there yet because employees don’t always prove to be 15

17. Trend 5 Total Transparency The right-wing Dutch political party PVV thought they could get away with not carefully selecting their newly elected members of parliament. Evidence gathered by a surprisingly simple investigation carried out by a TV channel showed that a number of MPs had a criminal record. One of the PVV MPs thought he could avoid being investigated by not participating in the investigations. Within 24 hours evidence of his conviction obtained by several media organisations forced him to admit he had been convicted of drunk driving 9 years previously. The commotion caused the rating to drop by 17%. What other people say Transparency not only applies to facts and figures, but also to opinions. During the past few years we have seen a growing number of places on the web where people can review whatever they want to review. Check out www.recensiekoning.nl for a taste of what is coming. This is a site dedicated to the reviewing of anything, including review sites. Successful companies ask their satisfied customers to share their satisfaction and unhappy customers to share their unhappiness. They then act to solve the causes of their customers’ unhappiness. In 2007 the Nobel prize for Economics was awarded to three Americans who challenged an assumption that has underpinned economic theory ever since Adam Smith introduced the theory of the "invisible hand“. This theory states that markets operate efficiently by nature. The three Nobel prize winners have long argued that markets don't always operate efficiently because buyers and sellers don't always have access to the information they need to make optimal choices. The new transparency rule will make information available to everyone at an unprecedented level, enabling Smiths’s invisible hand to do its job. The exposure of hundreds of thousands of secret documents by WikiLeaks is a mere sign of what is coming. Information that was once considered nobody’s business is now available to everyone. This makes it easier for buyers to make comparisons and do research, giving them a more powerful position. Just think of how easy it is nowadays to compare prices when buying anything. Transparency makes it harder or even impossible for brands to make profits in any deceitful or dishonest way. 16

18. Trend 5 Total Transparency emotions and illusions. The new transparency will make it harder to create illusions by advertising, because consumers will see through this. "Recommendations by personal acquaintances and opinions posted by consumers online are the most trusted forms of advertising globally. The Nielsen survey shows that 90% of online consumers worldwide trust recommendations from people they know, while 70% trust consumer opinions posted online.“ (Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey 2009). The only correct reply: total openness A natural reaction by people and organisations to transparency is to become more closed than before. This strategy will not do any good in the long run. If you cannot be open, you must have something to hide. Complete openness will reveal the true reasons why many companies exist (and expose those who cannot justify their existence).If a company is good at something, it should tell the world. If a company has weaknesses and is aware of them, exposing these weaknesses can help in finding solutions to them. What is needed is trusted advice and recommendations which enable consumers to feel in control, to know the facts, to avoid mistakes and disappointments so that they can make that perfect purchase. This has become even more pressing as choice-overload continues: never before has there been so much to choose from in mature consumer societies, and thus such a need for reviews. (www.trendwatching.com) The end of advertising? This form of transparency allows consumers to make purchase decisions based on what other people say. Where marketers have tried for decades to have a greater influence on those purchase decisions, consumers now rely on each other and the experiences of their peers. According to American philosopher Noam Chomsky, the purpose of advertising is to undermine the free market. Where free markets exist, there are informed consumers making rational decisions. In Chomsky’s view, the advertising industry thrives on misleading consumers into making decisions based on 17

19. If organisations behave unethically in any way, they will be exposed sooner or later. Being completely open about everything from production processes to ingredients and labour conditions will be rewarded. Consumers will increasingly choose their products not only taking into account price and quality, but also eco, health, social and ethical concerns. If something goes wrong, like an oil spill or a product recall, consumers will be more likely to forgive companies that are open and honest about these events and might even help them solve their problems. 18 Case “Transparency isn’t scary if you have nothing to hide” An example of what transparency will do for all markets in which there is an uneven access to information is the Dutch real estate market. In the past consumers were forced to use the overpriced services of real estate agents. Only they had access to supply (the houses on the market) and demand (the consumers looking for a new house). Both consumers that bought a house and consumers that sold a house were paying real estate agents in order to have access to the market. Internet changed this. Several websites now offer a full overview of all houses on sale. Consumers pay on average half of what they paid a few years ago to sell their house. Real estate agents focus on their real added value, which is selling houses at the best price in the least amount of time. The effects: in 2009 20% of all Dutch real estate agents went out of business and 30% operated at a loss.

20. I was asked this question a while ago at a meeting of local restaurant owners. They could not find a solution to this problem, which was bothering all of them. Many Dutch consumers base their decisions about where to eat on reviews on the popular website IENS.nl. Negative reviews there will immediately lead to a decline in the number of guests. One of the things the restaurant owners considered was establishing a task force to communicate with the owners of these websites, asking them to withdraw unfair negative reviews. It took them a while to draw the conclusion that the best way to deal with this issue was to improve their products and service, as indicated by the consumers that shared their (negative) opinions on the review sites. In reality the number of real and honest reviews by far outnumbers the number of fake reviews. 19 Case What can you do if your product or service is given bad reviews on a review site? “May we humbly remind you that bad reviews are not the problem, but a symptom? Not listening to (dissatisfied) customers is often at the root of the problem. Consumers don’t post their bad experiences straightaway. Most will notify you or one of your colleagues first. It’s the mismanagement of complaints and conflicts that invokes postings. Whether it’s someone at your helpdesk, someone in your stores, or an account manager; there’s virtually always an opportunity to settle an issue before it goes public. And if you really screw up, beat customers to the punch by being the first to report failures. Let customers know how you fix problems. Eventually, this will free up resources and energy to actively focus on enabling happy customers to post positive reviews. Now that's TRANSPARENCY TRIUMPH”. (www.trendwatching.com).

21. Trend 6 The Theory Of The Commons The major event of 2011 Probably the most important event of this year will be towards the end of 2011, when an estimated 7 billion people will be living on this beautiful planet (United Nations). This is a prime example of the theory (Garret Hardin, 1968): having children is beneficial to individuals, who will therefore have many children. This, however, will result in overpopulation, which will have numerous negative effects. There is a leverage effect as well: the fight for resources and the right for consumption will intensify with such big numbers. Even the Kyoto event (which focused on shared responsibilities and commitment to take action) failed. These might be reasons enough to be wary of the future. The question you could ask is not if but where a new war will take place. . Letting go 2011 will be the start of letting go of the Theory of the Commons. Owing to the international crisis and population growth, neither of which is over yet, people can find no other way than to hold on to each other. Although the reasons may not be the best, we expect 2011 to see clear examples of abundant thinking and the pooling of resources. About the Theory of the Commons The theory of (the tragedy of) the commons dates back to an essay written in 1833 by William Forster Lloyd. This much debated and frequently adapted conceptual framework suggests that in the short term, the individual advantage of exploiting shared or pooled resources is often perceived as being greater than the potential long-term shared losses that result from their deterioration, and consequently there is little motivation for individual actors to invest or engage in sharing, protection or conservation. Problems of the common pool are often difficult to solve, despite important economic costs and incentives to solve them. The theory of the commons held sway especially in the previous decade where ‘Greed is good’ or ‘Get rich or die trying’ were mantras people were attracted to. 20

22. Trend 6 The Theory Of The Commons Letting go of old paradigms We believe the end is not quite that near. Most (business and governmental) wars in the past dealt with fear and control. In today’s first world countries, people have come to realise that the only really scarce resources are time and attention, not control over someone. The crisis has shown that being a homo economicus does not satisfy deeper mental needs. This year will be the rebirth of the homo ludens. Focusing on the happiness of people will be one of the prime resources. Last November, British Prime Minister David Cameron said he would commission a survey into the national mood (next to GDP) to help build a more family-friendly Britain, a potentially fraught endeavour at a time of sharp spending cuts. A good example of solving the problem by focusing on abundance, not scarcity. Examples in 2011 More cities and countries are following this example (Bhutan is the first in this respect). Luckily, technological acceleration has leapfrogged us into a world where constraints are mostly in men’s minds. Citizens are starting to stand up and collaborate. We will see a new set of crowd-gathering events to raise and pool resources. 21

23. Trend 6 The Theory Of The Commons sense: if you cannot share, you cannot multiply. Sharing is a long-term strategy, beneficial to us all -no exceptions. So raise your glass to 2011: it will be a good year! In business we will see some revived examples of time banking initiatives to exchange trades, not only for profit, but also for involvement. Instead of putting pressure on one another, both government and business will even start working together (example: Dutch supermarkets will no longer issue free plastic bags. All Dutch supermarkets will join this initiative. Legally, a Dutch ban on bags is not possible. However, the government has endorsed this initiative). Cooperation in the value chain will be abundant: from sharing risks to focusing on recycling (which is being done now in a practical way, like extracting phosphorus from human waste). There will always be scarcity, but people will start treating the need as abundance. It is our common future. Raise your glass to 2011 Like nature, it will be a survival of the fittest: not necessarily the smartest or the strongest, but those who can adapt the best. With that in mind, happiness is only an inch away - like London, trying to measure happiness. There will be abundance, not driven by scarcity (i.e. something I have can also be yours) but in the old biblical 22

24. Case Theory of the commons The theory of the commons will not only occur in the B2C environment, but also in the B2B and G2B environment. One of the new domains is social entrepreneurship: in 2011 a new hit in the economy. Social entrepreneurship From CSR and green washing to changing your core as a business model: doing business and doing good. Social entrepreneurship includes aligning with your role in society and returning (part of) your profit for a long-term result. The number of businesses exhibiting these characteristics is rising fast. In 2009 these totalled 62,000 companies in the UK alone (M. Williams, 2009). There have been similar striking results in the Netherlands, too. 1.3% of Dutch employees have social entrepreneurial activities, from Plakkies to GoedWerk, Barefoot Power or Grameen Bank: all of these parties operate through business eyes and with a long-term view of society. They think in terms of abundance, togetherness, sharing. Financial institutions are likely to start including social measurement tools like SROI in risk analysis. For you? Instead of waiting for such killer whales to come to your business domain, reset yourself and think about sharing, about the long term and about happiness. Go for it! 23

26. Offers incentive policies (e.g. lower tax for ‘greener’ cars)

29. Consumers are behaving differently24

30. Trend 7 Sustainability Challenges of the near future The shortage of (worldwide) resources is becoming an issue of increasing urgency. The growth and progressive wealth of the world’s population - especially in the rapidly expanding economies of countries like China and India - will put further pressure on these resources. There is expected to be a huge rise in the amount of animal protein demand, and environmental pollution will result from the heavy pressure to produce what is required. The Netherlands is not keeping to its climate pollution reduction targets for 2020, as is the case with many other countries. Our urbanisation is continuing to grow at the cost of good agricultural areas for cities, nature and recreation. And consumers have less to spend in these difficult economic times. Green washing is over; it’s no longer accepted. Whole business columns are becoming closed circuits. Sustainability is coming from the inside. NGOs are taking over the role of the government, pushing retail and agriculture to sustainability. The concerns and activities of individual consumers is also growing, causing behavioural changes. Leading into a shift from pull to push. 25 PUSH

32. Cycles: resources, balancing fertilisers and minerals

33. The economy: adding value to the GNP, employment, sustainable production with new business models and a marketing concept

34. The environment: air pollution, transport and fitting into the environment

35. Animals: well-being, natural behaviour and housingRondeel is an integrated sustainability solution which brings about an improvement in animal well-being (3 stars – a better life) and provides an environment quality classification. The design of the farm is adjusted to the environment. The farmer receives a fair reward with a pleasant working environment. The price depends on the price of animal feed. There are no middle men; everything goes directly to the retailer. Demand will be leading the speed of development of this trend. Therefore transparency is vital - consumers can see for themselves what is happening through a visitors’ tunnel. An exhibition and a discussion facility is part of the concept and the packages used are 100% recyclable. 26

36. Trend 8 From Sustainable To Meaningful Business realise that they are part of a society. Being a part does not only mean focusing on your own prosperity or shareholder value; it also means making a positive contribution to the well-being of our society. Meaningful business The role of marketing is to create value for customers. But in the coming We-era companies will use their passion and core-competence to create value not only for customers but also for society. This is what we call Meaningful Business. Companies will have to find their Ideal by answering the significant question: ‘What role should my company be serving in society?’. More results This business approach will eventually produce more results, not only for people and society, but also for other stakeholders, like employees and shareholders. When employees are motivated by an ideal they are much more motivated to put their energy into their daily job. These employees will achieve better results than employees who work from 9 to 5 but reserve their passion for their own pursuits. Many organisations focus on sustainability. Marketers are involved with people and planet projects. However, the future is not about sustainability, but about doing meaningful business. Sustainability Our increase in prosperity has led to the lack of a clean environment and healthy social working conditions. We now realise that we should not only focus on profit but on planet and people as well. At the moment companies can distinguish themselves with regard to sustainable ingredients, packaging or production, but in the near future it will be a hygiene factor. This is something your customer will expect from you as a decent company. From an I- era to a We- era In the coming years people will devalue the dominant I-values from the last 2 decades, like prosperity, greed, hierarchy and self-enrichment. In the new ‘Zeitgeist’ the We-values will be embraced, like well-being, empathy, taking responsibility, co-operation and social interest. Future successful companies will be those who 27

37. Freedom / Change Nineties Years 2011 We From an I to a We era I Years 2000 Eighties Certainty / Conservative © 2010 www.tobloom.nl Trend 8 From Sustainable To Meaningful Business What is the role of marketing? In my view, marketers should take the lead within organisations because their primary task is value creation for customers and society. They should start by making the company aware that a new time is coming, where the business is led by an ideal. But how can you find out the best way to organise your brand ideal?" How to find your Ideal? The marketer has to lead the company through 3 simple steps. You should not start with the outside world or customer needs, but start within your inner roots, the identity of your company or brand. Why? Because it should be authentic and real and not some marketing trick or ‘ideal washing’. Passion: What is the passion of our company? Why do we exist? Ideal: Based on our passion, what can we contribute for our customers and society? Realisation: How are we going to realise our ideal at customer and society level? 28 The relationship with your customer will also deepen because your customer will be attracted to your ideal and know you won’t be trying to achieve a quick sell. It will also create real fans, real ambassadors and long-term profits.

39. Apple - making tools for the mind to advance humankind

42. By retraining the unemployed to become painters

43. By encouraging employees to paint their offices in colour

44. By initiating the Let’s Colour Project - a worldwide project to transform grey spaces by using colourful paint. (www.letscolourproject.com)29

45. Case The New Zeitgeist Will Also Redefine The Role Of Marketing New Marketing Old Marketing Brand B Adding shareholder value Brand to increase sales / consumption Brand imposes itself Producer role Customers can take it or leave it Money to buy head space Push & Pull Sending Marketer as manager Closed model Adding customer & societal value Brand to increase relevance Brand as part of people’s lives Enabler role Customers can participate / co-create Passion to earn heart space Magnetism Conversation / Dialogue Marketer as facilitator, community manager Open model 30

46. Trend 9 The Social Supply Chain: Profiting From Collaborative Anarchy recommendations / referrals is to measure the referral traffic and compare this with Google’s referral traffic, for example. In some cases the online traffic generated by social referrals is 40% higher than the traffic generated by Google. The experience economy is not only a paradigm shift for consumer product companies. LinkedIn is an example of a platform used by companies to assess their professional contacts. Organisations are also facing a growth imperative in their strategic planning. This is led by an accelerating technological change, demanding customers, intensifying competition and a focus on shareholder value (Day, 1992). Companies feel the need to identify drivers for future growth. However, revenue growth is becoming more difficult because there are fewer loyal customers and shorter product life-cycles. Furthermore, the market is becoming saturated with similar products because of eroding advantages as a result of competition. These uncertainty levels require innovative companies to change their strategy. #OMG what happened! This was probably the reaction by some of the T-Mobile Netherlands executives when a certain comedian used twitter to express his displeasure about their customer service. This example demonstrates a very important trend that will continue to evolve in the years to come. “Information and communications technology… …is forcing companies to think differently about value creation and to be more responsive to consumer experiences” Source: Prahalad, C., & Ramaswamy, V. (2004). Co-creating unique value with customers. Strategy & Leadership , III (32). This quote illustrates the paradigm shift that has increased the effect of the experience economy. These so-called “social recommendations / referrals” are not new; what’s new is the speed and the spread of their reach. Within seconds a tweet sent by the aforementioned comedian will be read by thousands. One of the means used to measure the spread of these social 31

47. Trend 9 The Social Supply Chain: Profiting From Collaborative Anarchy An answer to the question What can a company do to profit from the collaborative anarchy that is the new media? could be to deliver the best experience-based value using a social supply chain! Value creation Traditional value creation assumes that the customer is outside the domain of the value chain. An organisation can add value by carrying out a series of activities before the point of purchase. This traditional view conflicts with the consumer-centric view in which the customer is an integral part of the value chain. This means that the customer can add value. However, when, where and how the consumer adds value differs greatly from the traditional context. Recommended reading music: Uffie – ADD SUV - Feat. Pharrell Williams Source: Prahalad, C. (2004). The Blinders of Dominant Logic. Long Range Planning Journal (37), 171-179. We can infer from the table above that the experience delivered with a product or service is more important than the value added in the value chain. In the new experience-based value chain the customer determines the value proposition that delivers the best value. A good example of a company that has mastered the concept of delivering experience-based value is Threadless. With Threadless users can design their own T-Shirt. The community rates the design and the best design is printed. This means that the printed T-shirt has a lot of support and people experience high value. 32

48. Trend 9 The Social Supply Chain: Profiting From Collaborative Anarchy Improving value creation: Lean thinking Continuous innovation, experimentation and collaboration are key in improving customer value (Voelpel, Leibold, & Tekie, 2006). One of the methods to improve customer value is lean thinking. The focus of lean thinking is the customer rather than the product. The best example of lean thinking is that of Toyota. After WWII Toyota introduced lean thinking to eliminate waste in the value chain and as a result increased the value offered. Source: Lean Academy MIT An important aspect of the value chain is product improvement. In lean thinking the product improvements are worker-driven, continuous improvements. The expert-driven improvements are periodic improvements and are usually applied to new models. The table below describes the most important differences between lean thinking, mass production and craftsmanship. Lean thinking is great when a company has both the concept development and production internally. 33

50. Organisations are sourcing more and more of their requirements to stay competitive in a fast changing market, thereby also increasing the complexity of the value chain.

51. Organisations need to implement lean thinking to improve the customer focus, reduce waste and add value. To implement all three concepts companies need to let go of linear business thinking. Ask anyone in your own organisation to draw the supply chain or the value chain and the result will be a linear model. This linear model does not illustrate the organic nature of the experience economy. This is not the case with Apple, for example. Apple has sourced all its production requirements and only develops hardware designs and the software that powers the apple experience. In this case the growth imperative of an organisation therefore becomes organising the supply chain in such a way that value can be created. Organisations are increasingly sourcing more and more resources from external organisations. Some companies may only have intellectual resources. The following question remains: What should a company do if they want to benefit both from lean thinking and sourcing all but their intellectual resources? 34

52. Trend 9 The Social Supply Chain: Profiting From Collaborative Anarchy dimensions for operation and improvements. Both dimensions are still hierarchical in nature. The advantage is that you control the direction of innovation and who captures the value. The crowd of people is open and has the advantage that you receive a large number of solutions from domains that might be beyond your experience or knowledge. The group of experts provides the opportunity to develop privileged relationships with the best parties. The model is complex and can be implemented from a number of different angles. The most important thing is that you practise what you preach. Conclusion The concept of the experience economy is changing the way organisations deliver value to their customers. A social recommendation/referral is a part of your customer’s decision-making process and can make the difference between a buy/not buy decision. Organisations need to manage the experience-based value chain while still being in control of the business model and the underlying supply chain. The social supply chain To tackle these questions I would like to introduce the social supply chain. The social supply chain is a combination of lean thinking and co-creation. The focus of the social supply chain is the individual customer and experience-based value creation. The diagram below shows that the social supply chain is a nonlinear combination of the traditional supply chain and the new product development cycle. The nonlinear concept implies that each phase of the design can run simultaneously. The terms ‘crowd of people’ and ‘group of experts’ are the 35

53. Trend 9 The Social Supply Chain: Profiting From Collaborative Anarchy The entire process starts by letting go of some “old” principles. Things are not linear anymore. A different internal view of value creation is imperative. Sometimes this also means letting go of monetary values. It is important to gain a following, whether it is internal or external. The social supply chain is a concept that only works if everyone is on board. The concept is also relatively new and will probably be adapted over time. This is the beginning of a new trend, one that will lead to a new paradigm. One of the suggested strategies to implement this dynamic concept is the social supply chain. The social supply chain is a combination of different business processes, concepts and theories. Some of them are already part of the best practices (e.g. global sourcing and lean management) and some of them are relatively unchartered (e.g. crowd-sourcing, cloud-computing, open innovation and co-creation). The most important conclusion is that supply chains will have to become more open in their nature. It is not an option any more for a supply chain to be perfectly synchronised in the flow and pull if no attention is paid to the most important part of the value chain: the customer. 36

54. Trend 9 The Social Supply Chain: Profiting From Collaborative Anarchy Tips Start internally: do not keep the social media away, use them. Create an internal microblog (Twitter) and create an open communication platform. You will be surprised by the information streams (see, for example: www.yammer.com). Interactive does not mean digital. There are more ways to interact with your supply chain than by using digital communications. Celebrate your success and learn from failures. Do not create an environment in which people are afraid of making mistakes. These trends will follow a bumpy road - nothing is certain! “I am not young enough to know everything” (Oscar Wilde). Listen to the young. YES they have no experience! Don’t be afraid to be the first: someone has to set the standard. Try it out for yourself Here is a little assignment for the sceptics among us or those who just want to see for themselves: Gather 5 colleagues. Let each of them write down their favourite company or organisation (make sure there are no double entries). Give them 15 minutes to create a new product that all of the companies chosen can benefit from. See the results. Often the concepts are amazing, considering that they have been developed in 15 minutes. The goal of this assignment is to step outside of the box. When confronted with a company other than their own, people tend to forget the different interests they have in their job. This encourages creative thinking and real, open development. 37

55. Case Lego DesignByMe Lego is probably one of the first companies that applied the concepts of the social supply chain, albeit unintentionally. Now they are developing new methods to increase the value of their products by applying the concepts of experience-based value. The image on the right might be intended as a fun anecdote about Lego, but it does illustrate the experience people have with Lego. Lego has always been a product used by children and young adults to express their creativity by building their own creations. However, Lego produced boxes where no creativity was required. The creativity of these boxes came from over 2000 designers. A few years ago Lego realised they would reduce costs if they could exploit the creativity of the crowd to design the Lego sets. This led to the creation of the Lego DesignByMe, an online design tool where the crowd could design and order their own box sets. The result: an online community that creates and shares designs. You can buy your own design or one made by your friend. There is also a competition where the highest rated designs will go into production. Fun fact: the margins on the designs are higher than with the traditional box sets and the experience is better. It is a win/win. 38

56. Trend 10 Mind Shift to pool their knowledge and skills. We have known this for many years. We need to get more involved in society, embrace sustainability and be transparent. Only a people-oriented organisation which engages in a lasting relationship with its environment develops its full potential as a company in which there is room for entrepreneurs and where customers really influence their business. This requires a change in leadership for most companies. Service thinking is no longer the consultant, design thinking is no longer done via development and leadership is no longer only the manager. Roles and responsibilities are no longer fixed but depend on specific needs. Design thinking, service thinking, leadership Distinctiveness is becoming increasingly difficult and important. Adding value means no longer adding value to the company, but adding value to the customer. Customers provide this and therefore also provide the distinctiveness of the company. The mass - the community - can make or break your company. Customers have discovered the power of social media. Everybody is aware of the latest examples of the success of i-Pad and Youp van ‘t Hek’s call to action. As a result, a mind shift within companies is required. The diversity of various developments has been mostly fragmented until now. For example, the definition of design thinking, service thinking and innovation differs everywhere. A different way of organising is required Companies must organise themselves in a different and better way, otherwise they will not meet the demands of the future. This includes comprehensive cooperation. The cooperation between all departments must increase. Marketers have to descend from their (declining) ivory towers. Everyone within and outside the company needs 39

57. Trend 10 Mind Shift Creativity and collaboration are important in all disciplines. There is increasing recognition for these skills. This can be found in leadership profiles. Companies with a competitive advantage understand how it works and use the early successes of other companies to catch up quickly. Are you, your bosses and colleagues ready to adopt the mind shift and reach out to your future? The influence of your customers will not wane. Don’t wait until your competitors have caught up. Focus not only on today’s issues but also on the near future. The crisis will be with us for a few more years. Do some positive things. Don’t just put out fires! Implications for 2011 Fight over power. Old versus new thinking. Old ideas and structures will fade swiftly. If current management do not see the necessary changes quickly enough, a small revolution will knock on the door especially on the door of our younger generations. The number of self-employed people will continue to grow. In particular, educated people feel that they are not being recognised within the current business setting and are therefore looking for ways to make entrepreneurship happen. It is these people and the younger generation who will provide the innovations of the future for organisations. Real co-creation is becoming more and more accepted and a winning factor. The role of social media is also growing because of these trends. Companies will recognise the importance of these phenomena and shift their budgets. But the question remains, can and will organisations adapt quickly enough to outperform their competitors? Design thinking is not just a toy for Friday, but is slowly being integrated into general business performance. A people-oriented approach is key. 40

58. Case Rabobank - the new way of working The new way of working Rabobank is one of the early adopters of this new way of working. And of course not everything is 100% OK and not everyone can handle the changes well. But the introduction of flexible workspaces has led employers to focus on cooperation. The new building is based on design, durability and functionality. This new way of working is not only a mobility issue but is also motivated by the fact that working in a dynamic environment is more exciting, fun and better for the relationship between employees and customers - the people we do it for. In the future the mind shift will become more intense due to the combination of the new way of working, the unplugged world and the virtual world. As one of the early adaptors Rabobank understood that competitive distinctiveness is best achieved together. Why are you sticking to the same procedure you had last year? 41

59. Trend 11 Trans-sectoral Learning going to make money on today and tomorrow AND how can we convince the board that they need to invest in ideas marketers have? A problem-solving method Projects of all kinds frequently reach a point where all the analysis has been done and the next step is unclear. The project team must be creative to figure out what to do. Common creativity tools have been limited to brainstorming and related methods, which depend on intuition and your trust and knowledge of your team members. These methods are typically described as psychologically-based and having unpredictable and unrepeatable results. TRIZ is a problem-solving method based on logic and data rather than intuition, and accelerates the project team's ability to solve these problems creatively. TRIZ also provides repeatability, predictability, and reliability due to its structure and algorithmic approach. "TRIZ" is the (Russian) acronym for the "Theory of Inventive Problem-Solving." G.S. Altshuller and his colleagues in the former U.S.S.R. developed the method between 1946 and 1985. TRIZ is an international science of creativity that relies on the study of the patterns of problems and Do you ever cheat? Or do you prefer to keep to what is familiar? Many organisations just follow the rules within their own branch as their scope is limited exclusively within their branch. This results in copied behaviour, less distinctiveness and fierce price competition. We live in a world where competition is all around us. And competition has always been and will always be around us. That’s neither good nor bad, just reality. As Walt Disney stated: “I have been up against tough competition all my life. I wouldn't know how to get along without it.” Without competition you’ll end up being lazy and in the end somebody else will take your place. What most companies are looking for is the answer to 2 simple questions: How do we make money? How do we make sure we make money tomorrow? We admit this is a bold statement, but for now we want keep it simple. Black and white thinking has one big advantage: things become clearer. In the quest for money there are 2 important questions for marketers: what is the idea we are 42

60. Trend 11 Trans-sectoral Learning marketers are the ones who spend money and sales people are the ones who earn it. To add value as a discipline, marketers need to come up with ideas that generate money, competitive advantages AND a degree of certainty. Marketers tend to invent the wheel every day. A lot of plans and strategic issues meet with ideas that are sector-specific or are based on experiences and lack real innovation. Often ideas are not fact based or arise from ‘feelings’ marketers have for them. This is an important reason why marketing as a discipline has to fight for its survival in hard economic times, and why marketing is often a staff function like human resources. Marketing as a discipline Marketing needs to develop as a fact-based profession. Innovation needs to be an integral part of marketing and to be able to do this marketers needs to learn from one another so that they can build up knowledge that can be shared - knowledge based on successes and failures. As we have seen, this is exactly the case with scientific and technological innovation. Patents can be used to generate even better ideas or solutions, besides the fact that a patent protects the solutions and not on the spontaneous and intuitive creativity of individuals or groups. More than three million patents have been analysed to discover the patterns that predict breakthrough solutions to problems. TRIZ is spreading into corporate use across several parallel paths – it is increasingly common in Six Sigma processes, in project management and risk management systems, and in organisational innovation initiatives. Universal principles TRIZ research began with the hypothesis that there are universal principles of creativity that are the basis for creative innovations that advance technology. If these principles could be identified and codified, they could be taught to people to make the process of creativity more predictable. The short version of this is: somebody somewhere has already solved this problem (or one very similar to it). Creativity means finding that solution and adapting it to this particular problem. (Quoted from www.triz-journal.com) Marketers need to be able to cope with corporate pressure to be accountable. Historically, 43

61. Trend 11 Trans-sectoral Learning By adopting successes from other branches you can not only generate competitive ideas, but you can also be fact based. Ideas are not pulled out of thin air, but are based on successes in other branches. Branch marking is how to implement best practices from other branches to improve your own market position. Why spend a lot of energy on creating an idea that is not fact based while there are lots of successful and competitive ideas which have already been generated in different branches? Let’s end with a simple statement: the whole world is a bookcase filled with ideas; you only need to find the right one. owner. Whether innovation needs to be more open or not is not the topic of this report and therefore we will not debate this. The fact is that marketing ideas are not based on ‘patents’, which is a very important reason why it is technological innovations that direct the way markets move and not marketing innovations. Becoming a discipline The business environment is increasingly adopting the ideas put forward by TRIZ. More and more organisations want to learn why marketing ideas succeed or fail, not only within their own branch, as this hinders the development of competitive ideas. More and more organisations want to learn from other sectors. Trans-sectoral learning is a trend that will develop from a trend into a given discipline. Let's not forget that very often it is the board's task to achieve profitability in a limited amount of time. Therefore in most companies risk aversion is a major influence on ideas that may be implemented. 44

62. Trend 12 The Customer Marketing Machine Event-Driven Marketing Event-driven marketing (EDM) is a discipline within marketing in which commercial and communications activities are based on observed, relevant changes in the individual needs of the customer (© E.J. van Bel). EDM – a new chapter in marketing At the end of 2010, the latest book by Egbert Jan van Bel and Ed Sander on event-driven marketing was published worldwide by the USA based publisher Racom Books. Winning the customer’s favour has become more and more complicated over the years, a trend that is unlikely to be reversed in the near future. Quite the contrary, in fact. Conquering markets is a permanent process, one of investment in customer knowledge and new marketing concepts. Slowing down now means missing the boat later – with a long wait before the next one comes along. The challenge is firmly in the lap of the marketer, who has to invest constantly in knowledge and innovation, and do so with both courage and intelligence. The aim is to win customers and make the most of them, thus achieving the best return for the business. We should be measuring actual behaviour, not asking people why they behave the way they do with regard to a product or service. 45

63. Trend 12 The Customer Marketing Machine own organisation and market, everyone can apply EDM, both in business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B) environments. Any organisation can identify indicators like reaching a particular age, the expiry of a contract or the passing of a set number of days after a quote has been issued. There are good arguments to be made in favour of a business “customising” its customer contacts. Database marketing has been used since the 1980s as a way of trying to reach the right customer with the right proposition through the right channel. But with today’s growing competition, declining customer loyalty, political developments (privacy laws) and increasing consumer knowledge and self-confidence, that is no longer enough. Over the next few years, the technology is certain to develop in such a way that it will be able to provide current and reliable customer data for use in responding to changing patterns of need and the differentiation of customers and markets. It is important to be able to apply particular marketing tools at particular times, and to vary the way in EDM is a vision, a belief. If you use EDM principles, you will focus on your customer and work in a result-oriented way with a long-term scope. EDM is all about the customer and value creation. You don’t just do EDM ‘on the side’; it’s a cyclic, recurring process. EDM requires discipline and the winners take all ! EDM: unknown, yet not unloved Although the term “event-driven marketing” and its abbreviation, EDM, have been around for years, you will still not find much solid information about them in bookshops or on the web. The number of publications devoted to them can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Although you are more and more likely to come across EDM in trade journals and at conferences, it still has no hard and fast definition. After quite a few years of gathering experiences, cases and best practices in EDM, a book has been published by Racom Publishers called Event-Driven Marketing. Right on time, since many companies are considering a customer-focused strategy. That will probably create more difficulties, but practice makes you the master. Regardless of the conditions in your 46

64. Trend 12 The Customer Marketing Machine result, they no longer feel the need to divide their clientele into rigid segments. Instead, they are embracing flexibility, as that is what allows them to offer the product their customers are waiting for. The EDM Quadrant has been developed to determine and plan relevant events. What is it all about? A marketer organising the means to approach customers when it best suits them, not when it best suits the business. The “right moment” is the time when the customer is most receptive to the proposition on offer. In other words, the “three rights principle” (right message, right place, right person) becomes the “four rights”: the right message in the right place for the right person at the right time. The aim: to optimise customer potential. The challenge: to be able to identify customer value and customer potential. which the customer is approached according to the desired results. The correct use of such tools requires sufficient knowledge and experience within the organisation. Many banks and insurance companies are already successfully “event-driven”, but businesses ranging from pet food suppliers to travel agencies are now applying this concept as well, and with better and better results. As a Example of the EDM quadrant for financials (insurer): 47

66. Functional touch points – points of contact arising from (using) the product or service.48

67. Trend 14 Third Generation Serious Gaming Source: adapted from Faria, 2001; Issenberg et al., 2001; Lane et al., 2001; Lederman et al., 2001; Lieberman, 1998; Nehring et al., 2001; Powell, 2001; Renaud & Stolovitch, 1988; Ross et al., 2001; Starkey & Blake, 2001. The terms “game” and its distant relative “simulation” are used somewhat interchangeably in the scientific gaming literature, although researchers have attempted to differentiate between them and describe their specific characteristics which affect learning. Source: Crookall et al., 1987; Garris et al., 2002; Leemkuil et al., 2003; Maier and Grössler, 2000; Sauvé, 1985; Schmucker, 1999; Stolovitch, 1981. The next step What’s next? It’s the simple question that businesses spend millions trying to answer every year, all with the goal of learning what the business world of the future will look like. But there are some elements of this future that are already falling into place. For example, we know that business is becoming increasingly global. We know that enterprises are increasingly distributed, faster paced, and fiercely competitive. And we know that more work will be conducted virtually, using technology to Third generation serious games put the future of business leadership on display Authors such as Quinn (1994) and Rieber (1996) have argued that play and play associated with games are important constructs of learning. Play performs an important role in psychological, social, and intellectual development. A game in itself is a set of activities involving one or more people playing. A game has goals, constraints, payoffs and consequences. It is rule-guided and must often be story-based to become really engaging. Last but not least, a game involves some aspect of competition, even if that competition is with oneself (adapted from Dempsey et al. 1996). A game designed for something other than sheer entertainment is called a serious game. The "serious" adjective refers to the application of these types of games in performance assessment, training and development, education, viral marketing, promotion, recruitment, awareness campaigns, scientific exploration, emergency management, city planning and engineering. 49

68. Trend 14 Third Generation Serious Gaming Reality Cross Overs (RxO) Situational awareness and behaviour is more than just a state of mind. Serious games may target the development of sense-making, situational awareness and the behaviour following from the decisions based on that awareness. Sense-making is the ability or attempt to make sense of an ambiguous situation (conflict, dilemma, task, problem, threat, risk, opportunity, unknown territory, required adaptation, unexpected events or encounters). More precisely, sense-making is the process of creating situational awareness in situations of high complexity or uncertainty in order to make decisions. It is “a motivated, continuous effort to understand connections (which can be among people, places, and events) in order to anticipate their trajectories and act effectively" (Klein et al., 2006a). bridge previously impassable communications gaps. All of this begs certain questions: what new skills and competencies will people need to succeed in work environments that are increasingly virtual and distributed? What types of training and tools can forward-thinking companies use to enable a new breed of people to thrive in these uncertain environments? Are there people who already have these skills, or places where these new skills are being developed and refined? Online games, and specifically multi-player online role-playing games (MMORPGs), offer a glimpse at how leaders develop and operate in environments that are highly distributed, global, hyper-competitive and virtual. 50

69. Trend 14 Third Generation Serious Gaming Merriam et al. (2007) state that “Studies of informal learning, especially those asking about adults' self-directed learning projects, reveal that upwards of 90 percent of adults are engaged in hundreds of hours of informal learning. It has also been estimated that the great majority (upwards of 70 percent) of learning in the workplace is informal, although billions of dollars each year are spent by business and industry on formal training programs. Source: Kim, Collins, Hagedorn, Williamson, & Chapman, 2004, “Participation in Adult Education and Lifelong Learnings" (p.35-36). The concept of mutually connecting a serious game (applying the logical order - formal) to real life (applying the reverse order - informal) can be called Reality Cross Over (RxO). Introducing the real world to the player just as it is related to the tasks within the game will typically add to the player’s attitude, self-efficacy, perceived need to reflect on his actions, ability to deal with emotions and coping strategies with regard to unexpected events. “If you want to see what business leadership may look like in three to five years, look at what’s happening in online games.” Source: Byron Reeves, Ph.D., the Paul C. Edwards Professor of Communication at Stanford University and Co-founder of Seriosity, Inc. Even if the construct of sense-making - situational awareness, decision-making, taking action (Endsley, 1995b) - seems to create a logical flow of events within a serious game, we need to take into account that actual (informal) learning or changing behaviour often takes place in a reverse order i.e. by: Experiencing - and adapting to - an event Making a decision on the quality of the actionperformed Connecting it to similar situations Putting it into a meaningful context. 51

70. Case NIU - Leader-Chip-The-Game Researchers have proven that games like “World of Warcraft” improve leadership skills in an efficient manner. The first generation games go back to the ’70s and were often developed by institutions for management and strategy. The second generation games were developed in the year 2000 and contain futuristic interfaces (e.g. Avatars and 3D) intended to increase the knowledge of employees. Employees that have just graduated understand the company they work for better or develop their knowhow of processes and management techniques through numerous repeats. An example of what the third generation can do: Third generation games, of which NIU – Leader-Chip-The-Game- is an example, contain multiple innovations comparable with the level of newness of the big online games. It offers a 360° universe where employees can choose freely their discussion and meeting partners to exchange their ideas instead of being limited to one conversation with a specific person. Each visit to the game provides new scenarios for the players, the contestants, which is similar to their exchange of behaviour in real life. This leads to a higher and faster level of learning new skills and understanding how you act in different situations, which results in a change in behaviour. 52

71. Trend 15 BRIC Countries Beyond Development The economic shift The main reason to discuss the BRIC countries is because they have been in the spotlight as developing countries - the so-called second world countries. But what we see is that these countries are developing very fast and well. The current crisis and the lack of future resources for today's western countries are a huge boost to the potential of the BRIC countries. They have all the preconditions to bring about a global shift in the economy. The BRIC economies together will outperform the current G6 industrialised countries in the coming decades. China is already the second player in the world economy (India is 5th). Internationally-oriented companies and companies facing growing imports in their markets should not only monitor but act on this trend if they have not done so already. These BRIC countries do not follow the entire development, but start immediately where there is an opportunity. So they are not impeded by old infrastructure, barriers in knowledge development or investment in the queue. Brazil is a prime example of how technology and development go hand in hand. Here they have invented the concept behind the ‘provoking lag’. China, Russia and India are given more prominence than Brazil, but Brazil has much to offer. For a lot of investors Brazil is the most interesting country. A growth of 5-6% is expected. 53

72. Trend 15 BRIC Countries Beyond Development developments are happening fast: even the Favelas have WIFI. As their infrastructure is not developed, they can omit several steps. There are no discussions via cable, but there is full access to all new technologies instantaneously, and an incredible level of global innovation. Sharing is common practice and there are no privacy issues. Developments such as collective purchases, recommendations, location-based services and e-commerce are the norm. Brazilian entrepreneurs have a high need to excel. The political climate is favourable. Start-ups achieve great success and they are already investing in other Latin American countries and the USA. The Olympic games and the football World cup will give them an additional boost. Sustainability is a natural component of entrepreneurship for them. Brazil could be eco-superior in the future. Marketers should see and use Brazil as a knowledge nation. If you follow the developments in new media, sustainability and innovation, you will keep up with the trends automatically. Especially superior graphics and design are very inspiring and innovative in the field of social media. Forty-six percent of internet market users come from the BRIC countries and the USA. And if this is not enough there are a few more “waiting for us”. Fast-developing upcoming areas are Turkey, Egypt, South America, Chile and Indonesia. Europe has become less interesting for investors looking for growth opportunities. And our organisational structures are too complex. What does this mean for us? Focus on Brazil: Brazil is an investment county par excellence, even for the Chinese. Investors are lining up to fund any great initiative on offer. Technical 54

73. Case Please Give Me Brazil LBS Local / Apontador LBS Local is the market leader in Brazil in the field of location-based software. It’s a very interesting topic and they deal with it properly. What is particularly interesting is that they have been smart enough to have a truly inspirational leader. It is rare when a CEO speaks from his heart. They have a bold vision, strong leadership and the courage to go the extra mile to make you see where the success comes from. They excel at start at the front of the business. Visit www.lbslocal.com for a closer look and feel of this company. What a company! From the outside it seems as if you are at a small post office. The reception desk is situated in a small room and following tradition has a lot of goodies on the table. But the impressive part is the fact that Boo-Box is the first technology-based advertising and social media company that connects. If you would like to bring this innovation to Europe, you’ll have a problem. In the words of the Boo-Box manager, Europe doesn’t exist. Europe is just not interesting enough for them. Need a clearer sign that we are lagging behind? 55

74. Sharing Knowledge Together A big thank you to all the people who contributed to this trend report. Special thanks goes to all the PIM Marketing Trend Report editors, Nikki Petit (design), Dimitris Kritsilis (video), Annamaria Beasley-Suffolk (translations), Jasper Roos & Thomas Verhagen (our sponsor, Dialogues Incubator - Dialogues House) and all other PIM Marketing Trend Watchers who were the driving force and a partners from the beginning to the end. Sharing knowledge is a key element of our approach. We invite you to share and enhance this knowledge with others. All texts are copyrights free and in English to support a wide and fast knowledge exchange. Be aware that the pictures are NOT copyrights free. We take no responsibility for any further dissemination of this report or parts of this report. If you use this report or parts of it, you are kindly requested to reveal the source (Peter Gouw - Platform Innovation in Marketing 2011). If you have any comments please send them to peter.gouw@pimonline.nl. We highly appreciate this. Knowledge shared is knowledge multiplied! Secretariat:tel.: 010 - 51 40 944 e-mail: secretariaat@pimonline.nl www.pimonline.nl 56

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76. Our Sponsors We would like to express our gratitude to our sponsors and especially to the sponsor of the PIM Marketing Trend Report Dialogues Incubator / Dialogues House. Their support, enthusiasm, knowledge contribution and long term commitment PIM has developed into a great platform for more than 1.000 marketing lover. Enjoying on a regularly base each others company, challenging visions and opinions. Hans Molenaar Chairman Platform Innovatie in Marketing In behalf of the whole PIM board. 58