Presentation by Wolfgang Lutz with Anne Goujon) Signatures in Regional Science Vienna (August, 2016)

1. New EC-JRC/IIASA
Centre of Expertise on
Population and
Migration
Brussels, 20 June 2016
Wolfgang Lutz & Anne Goujon
World Population Program, IIASA

2. Objectives
• Provide multi-dimensional assessments of different
possible future population trends in the EU as well as in
the main regions of origin in Europe, Africa and Western
Asia (including the effects of EU policies on these
trends).
• Assess the longer-term impacts of alternative migration
scenarios (in terms of volume, age, gender, education,
labour force participation etc.) for the EU with respect to
population ageing and the productivity of the EU labour
force.

3. Link with the KCMD
(Knowledge Centre for Migration & Demography)
• The Centre of Expertise will collaborate with the KCMD
in the following activities:
Ø Understanding of the root causes, migration incentives
and determinants
Ø Modelling the impact of migration on demographics
Ø Anticipating future demographic trends and developing
scenarios and foresight
Ø Helping with organizing relevant workshops, networking
with experts and academia, contributing to "flagship"
publications and science-for-policy briefs.

4. Filling a research gap for ageing Europe
• There is a need to strengthen research in the EU to
assess the longer-term implications of migration- and
population-related challenges comprehensively.
• The 2015 “Ageing Report” of the EC provides an
assessment of the economic and budgetary challenges
associated with demographic change in the 28 member
States up to 2060.
• But this assessment is based on a demographic
scenario assuming relatively moderate migration into the
EU.

5. Why JRC and IIASA?
• The Joint Research Centre is the in-house science and
knowledge service of the Commission. It can vouch more
than ten years of research experience in migration-
related topics and is leading in modelling / foresight
studies.
• Founded in 1972, IIASA is an international scientific
institute that conducts policy-oriented research into
problems that are too large or too complex to be solved
by a single country or academic discipline. IIASA has
already developed the methods of multi-dimensional
population dynamics that explicitly incorporate
characteristics such as education and labour force
participation in addition to age and gender.

6. Building on existing work
• IIASA recently produced a
comprehensive summary of
global demographic trends with
alternative scenarios by level of
education, age and gender for
all countries in the world.
• These scenarios form the
“human core” of the SSPs
(Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways) that are used by
Integrated Assessment and
climate change research
groups around the world.

7. Illustrations of multi-dimensional
population dynamics
• Show the changing age pyramids by level of education
for the newest EU member Croatia.
• Show alternative scenarios for future labour force
participation by level of education in the EU.
• Show alternative SSP scenarios for Africa’s biggest
country Nigeria, which will be combined with different
scenarios on economic development and climate
impacts to assess future out-migration pressures.

8. Source: Wittgenstein Centre Data explorer (2015)

9. Women’s labour force participation rates for all EU28
countries combined, by education, age, and sex, 2015
Source: Adapted from Loichinger (2015)

10. Education specific labour force projections for the EU
Total labour force in EU26 countries,
2003-2053, by scenario, considering
education (solid lines) or not (dotted
lines)
Benchmark
Scenario
Cohort
scenario
Constant
scenario
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
Potential economic dependency
ratio in EU26 countries, 2008-2003,
considering education (solid lines) or
not (dotted lines)
Constant
scenario
Cohort
scenario
Benchmark
scenario
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Source: Adapted from Loichinger (2015)

11. Population of Nigeria by level of education
Population 57 Million Population 158 Million
Source: Wittgenstein Centre Data explorer (2015)
1970 2010

12. SSP1: Rapid social development: Sustainability /
Rapid technology / High environmental
Awareness / Low energy demand / Medium-high economic
growth /Low population growth / Increase in human capital
SSP3: Stalled development: Fragmentation /
Slow technology / Development (dev-ing)
Reduced trade / Very slow economic growth/ Very high
population growth / Stagnation in human capital
Source: Wittgenstein Centre Data explorer (2015)
Future population of Nigeria by level of education
working age pop. w. low edu: 49%
pop. <20: 52%
working age pop. w. low edu: 52%
pop. <20 : 53%
Population 178 million Population 181 million
2015
Population 199 million Population 206 million
working age pop. w. low edu: 41%
pop. <20: 51%
working age pop. w. low edu: 49%
pop. <20 : 53%
2020
working age pop. w. low edu: 33%
pop. <20: 48%
working age pop. w. low edu: 46%
pop. <20 : 53%
Population 221 million Population 235 million
2025
working age pop. w. low edu: 27%
pop. <20: 46%
working age pop. w. low edu: 44%
pop. <20 : 53%
Population 243 million Population 268 million
2030
working age pop. w. low edu: 21%
pop. <20: 43%
working age pop. w. low edu: 43%
pop. <20 : 53%
Population 266 million Population 305 million
2035
working age pop. w. low edu: 16%
pop. <20: 41%
working age pop. w. low edu: 42%
pop. <20 : 53%
Population 289 million Population 345 million
2040
working age pop. w. low edu: 12%
pop. <20: 39%
working age pop. w. low edu: 41%
pop. <20 : 52%
Population 312 million Population 389 million
2045
working age pop. w. low edu: 9%
pop. <20: 37%
working age pop. w. low edu: 41%
pop. <20 : 51%
Population 333 million Population 435 million
2050
working age pop. w. low edu: 7%
pop. <20: 35%
working age pop. w. low edu: 41%
pop. <20 : 50%
Population 352 million Population 482 million
2055
working age pop. w. low edu: 5%
pop. <20: 32%
working age pop. w. low edu: 41%
pop. <20 : 48%
Population 370 million Population 529 million
2060

13. Workplan of JRC/IIASA Centre
• The cooperation is to be based on equal partnership between
the two research institutions.
• A team of 10 researchers will be dedicated to the task (5 at
IIASA, 5 at JRC-Ispra).
• Collaboration will also include Eurostat and “Population
Europe” (a consortium of demographic research centres in
Europe).
Structure of work:
• Component (a): Analysis of “Push Factors” in Africa and
Western Asia and “Facilitating Factors”,
• Component (b): Analysis of “Pull Factors” in the EU,
• Component (c): Modelling of alternative possible migration
streams and their impacts on population ageing and its
economic consequences in the EU.

14. Time Line
• June 2016, Launch of the project
• March 2017, Pilot studies for potential sending counties
• Mid 2017, Definition of alternative migration scenarios,
Report on Component (a) – Sending countries
• February 2018: Report on Component (b) - EU
• December 2018: Report on Component (c) – Results
from alternative migration scenarios. Finalisation of
model runs and final report.
Science –Policy Interactions throughout the project