Fact based analysis - Econometrics

1. BASELINE TRENDS
Econometrics by GroupM Bi | 2017-02-03
Based on Google trends data for Eton

2. BASELINE TRENDS STUDY
ABOUT
• Goal Identify and compare sustainable trends for 5 brand keywords on
Google: Eton, Stenströms, Oscar Jacobson, Ralph Lauren and La Chemise
• Method Econometrics – a statistical method that identifies how different
micro and macro factors influence a KPI
• KPI Google search volume for specific keywords in Sweden (Google Trends)
• Dataset 3 years of weekly observations
• Focus Positive underlying growth trend is essential and indicates a higher
and more genuine interest over time
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3. 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD
● KPI growth #Eton +22% +3% +10%
● KPI growth #Stenströms +9% +1% +1%
● KPI growth #Oscar Jacobson +19% +13% +6%
● KPI growth #Ralph Lauren +12% +8% -1%
● KPI growth #La Chemise +24% -5% -15%
KPI
Google trends volume in Sweden (index)
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KNOWN INSIGHTS – BRAND SEARCH

4. HIDDEN INSIGHTS – BASELINE TRENDS
2014 2015 2016 2017
KPI
Jan Apr Jul Oct
KPI
PRIMARY KPI: BASELINE SEASONALITY
The repeating long term impact to do more or less of the KPI during
the year. There’s a higher propensity to boost KPI during peaks.
PRIMARY KPI: THE UNDERLYING GROWTH TREND (BASELINE)
The key factor to long term success which illustrates the baseline lift over time, isolated from any seasonality,
weekly, macro or incremental impact. Positive trend indicates a growing higher minimum level for the KPI.
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2014 2015 2016 2017
KPI
Jan Apr Jul Oct
KPI
● #ETON ● #STENSTRÖMS ● #OSCAR JACOBSON ● #RALPH LAUREN ● #LA CHEMISE
COMPARISON: THE UNDERLYING GROWTH TREND (BASELINE)
COMPARISON: BASELINE SEASONALITY FOR ALL

5. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The KPI increased 3% in 2015 for #Eton, accelerated in 2016 (+10%) – opposite ratio for #Oscar Jacobson
The underlying growth for #Eton shows positive trend for several years – flat for #Stenströms
Seasonality Higher propensity to search for #Eton in June, December and January – different from #Stenströms
Next step Add marketing data to the #Eton-model to understand incremental impact of marketing
Goal Increase the positive trend and demonstrate sustainable positive underlying growth for #Eton
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