Energy : Geopolitics - Geostrategy - Geoeconomy, Lesson learned from Russia - Europe

Energy Policy Management in
National Border Area
Geostrategy – Geoeconomy and National Security Concerns
Sampe L. Purba
March 2022

Agenda
•Contemporary International Geopolitics –
Geoeconomy Issues
•Indonesia Upstream National Border Geopolitics -
Geostrategy – Geoeconomy
•National Objectives – NATIONAL INTEREST -
THREAT AND DETERRENCE
Mar-22
@Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and
Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe

Broad Terms
• Geopolitics: Application of the influence of political and economy
geography international relations [economy, politics, foreign policy,
power, etc]
• Geostrategy : A decisive points with spatial consideration, by taking
into account the driving forces of demography, culture, technology,
resources and its mobility to meet national objectives
• Geoeconomics : Capitalizing Economy to pursue geopolitical
objectives
 Instruments : Trade policy, investment policy, Financial and
monetary, energy and commodities, aid and cyber
Mar-22

Primary Energy World Pattern Consumption
Mar-22
Fossil Based Energy to dominate, everywhere
@bp Statistical Review, 2021

Gas Balance to Europe
Number is Power
 541 BCM gas
consumed (2020)
 57 % is imported
[pipeline and LNG]
20% of import is LNG
Russia plays a
dominant roles in
supplying and
transporting gas
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043321/Diversity_and_security_of_gas_supply_in_Europe__2020_.pdf
Mar-22

European Energy Balance – Russia is everywhere
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043321/Diversity_and_security_of_
gas_supply_in_Europe__2020_.pdf
European Source of LNG
Gas Supply to Europe
Mar-22

Map of Oil and Gas Pipelines from Russia
• Russia well diversified its
gas pipeline route :
Ukraina : 146 bcm/y
Blue stream: 16 bcm/y
Nord stream 1: 55 bcm/y
Nord stream 2 : 55 bcm/y
Turk stream : 31.5 bcm/y
Yamal Europe :33 bcm/y
 Point to note
2021  to Europe 177 bcm,
but ONLY 42 bcm via Ukraina
Map : U.S. Energy Information Administration @ FGE analysis
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Mar-22

Russia is everywhere – Even Link to PRC
http://www.gazpromexport.ru/en/projects
/transportation/
Mar-22

Energy : Politics – Diplomacy - Military
When National Interest at stake
Contemporary Issues
Infografis@Kompas, 18 Februari 2022
NUMBER IS POWER
http://www.gasprocessingnews.com/features/201906/the-insoluble-equation-
how-to-balance-europe%E2%80%99s-natural-gas-supply-and-demand.aspx
Mar-22

Agenda
•Contemporary International Geopolitics – Geo
economy Issues
•Indonesia Upstream National Border Geopolitics
- Geostrategy – Geoeconomy
Mar-22

• Indonesia Oil and Gas Map Working Area
• Some lay in
between
territorial sea – up
to continental
shelf
• UNCLOS set
different rules
• Operational and
Legal Enforcement
matters
https://geoportal.esdm.go.id/migas/
Mar-22

Upstream Working Areas in Continental Border Areas
• Out of 190’s,
there are 25 in
border areas
 Resources
estimated 17,819
MMBOE
 Each Border
States facing
specific issues
Mar-22

Mar-22
Working areas
: territorial
zone –
Continental
Shelf
Border
agreements
Institutional
Crossing zone
domains
Oil and Gas Andaman Sea, ACEH
1
Recoverable Resources Andaman
– Malacca Strait, 1 EPT +3 EKS
P50 : 224 MMBO + 9.176 BCSF

Geostrategy Andaman Sea - Aceh
• Sea Lines of Communication
• Choke Points Malacca Strait
• BRI RRC vs Indo Pacific [QUAD]
• Indonesia Border with India,
Malaysia, Thailand
• Petroleum Resources in Andaman
Sea
• LNG Regassification terminal Arun,
Storage Bulk, LNG Hub
• A strategic Sabang Port adjacent to
Andaman - Nicobar
• Historical Dynamics of Aceh within
the Republic of Indonesia
Mar-22

Upstream in North Natuna Sea
• Technical and
Commercial Issues
 High CO2 and sulphur
 Monetization Issues
- Existing domestics
pipeline system
- Creation of new
surrounding demands
- Connection to
overseas pipeline
system
 Defence and Security
Issues
2
Mar-22 Recoverable Resources, 5 EPT, 3 EKS
P50 : 1.274 MMBO + 10.918 BSCF

Geopolitics in South China Sea
• BRI vs Indo Pacific
• FONOP [Freedom of Navigation Operation]
• QUAD [India, Japan, US, Australia]
• AUKUS [US,UK, Australia]
Mar-22

Game of Throne : BRI vs INDOPACIFIC
Mar-22
US Global Fleet to patrol the globe
 The ancient sleeping Giant to wake up glorifying its old historical domination in the
globe
 Perceived as DIRECT challenge to the NEW ORDER Establishment Post WW II
 Indonesia aware of Spill over effect, multipolar power effect
 Also needs Agility by taking into account its bargain position [VUCA concept]
How Chinese Leaders Think – Book Review Sampe Purba https://www.academia.edu/s/a6de1663aa?source=work

North and East offshore Kalimantan Upstream
Discovery in Indonesia Border
zone
Overlap zone with Malaysia
around Ambalat Sea
Lesson learned from Sipadan –
Ligitan case (ICJ, 2002)
- Effective Occupation - Chain of
Title - Status quo
No precedent on UNCLOS
settlement delimitation between
Coastal State vs Archipelagic state
3
Mar-22 Recoverable Resources, 2 EPT, 3 EKS, 1 PT
P50 : 465 MMBO + 2337 BSCF

Kalimantan Geopolitical – Geostrategy – Geoeconomy issues
 IKN [ New Capital State Plan]
 New Center of Gravity
 Islands with 3 States
 UNCLOS 1982 on int’l passage rights :
- right of archipelagic sea lines passage (GR
37,2002)
- Right of Innocent Passage
- Right of Transit Passage
 FPDA [Five Power Defense Arragements ->
Australia, UK, NZ, Malaysia, Singapore
 BRI vs Indo Pacific
Mar-22

Upstream Papua National Border
 Basin Continuity in Indonesia
Papua Border to Papua New
Guinea
 Preservation Forest issues in
Indonesia Side
 Remoteness of Area
4
Earth Sciences, University of Papua New Guinea,by Hugh L. Davies
Mar-22
Recoverable Resources, 1 EKS
P50 : 3.297 BSCF

Melanesian and Pacific
Countries in UN GA not in
favor of Indonesia
 PRC BRI expanded strategic
plans to South Pacific
Countries
US historical and continuing
strategic military base in
Pacific Regions
The US – Japan Security
Treaty
Pacific Geopolitical Issues
https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-
america/us/security/guideline2.html
Mar-22

Tanimbar Sea and Southern Parts of
Indonesia National Border
• Abadi – Masela
Field Development
Plans
• Gas Potential in
Timor Leste and
Australian Border
Side
• Maritime zone
need to agreed
upon
5
Mar-22
Recoverable Resources, 1 EPT, 3 EKS, 1 PT
P50 : 361 MMBO + 49.452 BSCF

Southern Parts Geostrategy – Geoeconomy Issues
• A traditional asylum and refugees irregular transit to Australia
• Australia Defence White Paper Tones  Strategic common
prosperity with reasonable cautiousness
• US Marine Air Ground Force Task Force in Darwin  as part of
ANZUS
• Coal and LNG from Australia competes International market
with those of Indonesia
• Ichthys – Bayu Undan – Prelude LNG. LNG Processing Facilities,
already in operate in nearer border such as Darwin, Australia
http://www.pm.gov.au/press-office/australia-united-states-
force-posture-initiatives https://www.inpex.com.au/projects/ichthys-lng/
Mar-22

Agenda
•Contemporary International Geopolitics – Geo
economy Issues
•Indonesia Upstream National Border Geopolitics -
Geostrategy – Geoeconomy
Mar-22

NATURE
ACTOR
THREAT
FORM
MILITARY
POTENTAL
ACTUAL
NON MILITARY
WEAPONRY
NON WEAPONRY
MANNER
NATIONAL
REGIONAL
INTERNATONAL
INTERNAL
EXTERNAL
STATE
NON STATE
SOURCE
IMPACT TO LIFE
MATTER IPOLEKSOSBUDHANKAM
Defense Policy : INDONESIA
Threat vs Deterrence
@ Purnomo Yusgiantoro, 2019
Mar-22

DEFENSE AREAS
 PEACE development and improvement
defense capabilities as manifestation of
national deterrence
 WAR  defense area as war zone
Upstream working areas
 Lands, Waters and Continental Shelf
 National Strategic Assets
Administration areas
 Regional Autonomy and Govt Reps
 Spatial Management
Mar-22
DEFENSE – UPSTREAM - ADMINISTRATION

General Policy on State Defense
• JAKUMHANNEG – Perpres 8/2021
• Four Strategic Products
Strategy [In depth, Main islands,
continuous]
doctrine [sishankamrata]
Whitepaper -> Power Projection
and balancing
Posture [weaponry, servicemen,
base and placing]
Mar-22  VUCA

Concluding Remarks
Energy is a significant element in
shaping international relations
Natural Resources Policy
Management should be designed
and projected on broader and
long term goals
Management of Oil and Gas in
Border Areas is an integral part of
National Interest – National
Objectives to promote people
welfare and maintain the integrity
of our nation
Mar-22
Sampe L. Purba
Doktor Ilmu Pertahanan
Kementerian ESDM
sampepurba@gmail.com

Sampe Purba – Short Bio
Mar-22
Sampe L. Purba is Senior Advisor to Minister of EMR Indonesia on Economy of Natural
Resources. His main role is to provide strategic advisory on the policy formulation and
management of natural resources, discuss and help solve issues across the concerned
stakeholders and functions. He is also Chair of Committee Audit in Ministry of Energy and
Mineral Resources.
He has been experiencing 30 years assignment with private, semi and government institution in
several technical and managerial positions mainly related to commercial, finance, legal and
audit of oil and gas business management.
He holds bachelor and master degrees in Economics, Accounting, Finance and Law, from some
domestic universities and The University of New South Wales, Australia. He holds a
Management Defense Science Doctoral degree from Indonesia Defense University,
concentrating in Energy Policy and Geostrategy.
Mr. Purba is a member of professional organization, such as IAI, IPA, AIPN, PERADI. In
international organization, he serves as Board member of EITI representing Indonesia as
implementing country and South East Asia region. Recently he is also appointed by the Office
of Australia Prime Minister as one of Panel Experts in Indo-Pacific Clean Energy Supply Chain
Forum. @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and

Grand Strategi Energi Nasional
Mar-22
@ Dewan Energi Nasional, 2021

Russia is everywhere
Mar-22
BACK UP

Energy : Politics – Military - Diplomacy
Crude Oil movement is
highly sensitive to NON
FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES
Carl von Clausewitz :
War is the continuation
of policy by other
means
Geopolitics –
Geostrategy –
Geoeconomy
Mar-22

Mar-22
UNCLOS 1982

M I L I TA R Y
Policy of National Defense System
NATIONAL ECONOMY
PENGARUH ANCAMAN & INDUSTRI
TERHADAP EKONOMI NASIONAL
NATIONAL INDUSTRY
KONTRIBUSI INDUSTRI PERTAHANAN THD
EKONOMI NASIONAL
DEFENSE INDUSTRY
KEMANPUAN INDUSTRI PERTAHANAN DLM
MENDUKUNG KOMPUT
THREAT
NILAI ANCAMAN DIHADAPKAN PADA
KEMAMPUAN MENGHADAPI ANCAMAN
THE CAPABILITY TO FACE THE THREAT
POSTUR PERTAHANAN TERUTAMA DI
DAERAH YG BERPOTENSI KONFLIK.
DEFENSE RESOURCES
SUMBER DAYA YG BISA DIGUNAKAN UTK
MENDUKUNG KOMPONEN PERTAHANAN
NEGARA
DYNAMICS OF POLICY VARIABLES
INTER RELATION
Purnomo Yusgiantoro- DEFENSE ECONOMY

Mar-22
BAGAN STRATIFIKASI DOKTRIN TNI

DAERAH PERTEMPURAN
DAERAH KOMUNIKASI
DAERAH BELAKANG
DAERAH PANGKAL PERLAWANAN
MANDALA PERTAHANAN LUAR
(LAPIS 1)
ZEE (200 Mil)
LAUT TERITORIAL
(12Mil)
N K R I
MEDAN PERLAWANAN
MANDALA PERTAHANAN
Wilhan Dinamis (Negara dalam keadaan perang)
MANDALA
PERTAHANAN
UTAMA
(LAPIS 2 - INTI)
MANDALA
PERTAHANAN
DALAM
(LAPIS 3 - INTI)
Penyiapan wilayah negara sebagai mandala
pertahanan dg gugusan kepulauan Indonesia
sbg titik kuat pada pulau-pulau besar
dihadapkan pada perkiraan strategis tentang
kemungkinan ancaman pada tiga lapis mandala
pertahanan
Idealnya
menjadi acuan
Bangnas
Dr. MayJen M. Nakir, 2020
Mar-22

Mar-22

POSTUR PERTAHANAN MILITER
Mar-22
DisJaktra

Energy : Geopolitics - Geostrategy - Geoeconomy, Lesson learned from Russia - Europe

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Tendances (20)

Similaire à Energy : Geopolitics - Geostrategy - Geoeconomy, Lesson learned from Russia - Europe

Similaire à Energy : Geopolitics - Geostrategy - Geoeconomy, Lesson learned from Russia - Europe (7)

Plus de Sampe Purba

Plus de Sampe Purba (20)

Dernier

Dernier (20)

Energy : Geopolitics - Geostrategy - Geoeconomy, Lesson learned from Russia - Europe