this presentation showing how the BRI - Belt Road Initiative of PRC is a game changer in Asia Pacific major actors. Renaming of Pacific command to be Indo Pacific command by US reflecting the shifting of center of gravity in the region

1. Geopolitics and
Geostrategy
Dynamics Asia Pacific
Region Amidst
Covid 19 Pandemic
Sampe L. Purba
Airlangga Law And
Governance
Webinar Series
10 Juli 2020

2. Contents
Actors in Asia Pacific Theatre
The Game Changer – Belt Road Initiative
Energy Security and
Sea Lines of Communication
US : From Asia Pacific to Indo Pacific Strategy
Covid 19 –The Fittest Contestation Show
2
4
5
Concluding Remarks
Introduction
Jul-20 2

3. Introduction
✓Geopolitics : Application of the influence of political and economic
geography towards international relations (economy, politics, foreign
policy, power, etc).
Study of the realities and mentalities of the localities (James Kurth)
✓Geostrategy : Strategy to capitalize National Resources and
geographical position to meet national objectives.
✓Lebensraum theory : State as living organism, needs more space
and sphere of influence to survive, expand and to dominate. → ends
– ways – means
➢Hard : Military and Political hegemony (weaponry, personnel, technology,
intrigues)
➢Soft : Dialog, Conduct, Diplomacy, Alliance, Protection, Submission
➢Smart : Technology, Financial, Market, Advisory ➔ creating dependence
trap
Jul-20 3
1

4. ✓Economy
Indicators
✓Military
Strength
✓Forum -
Alliance –
Pacts
The Major Actors in Asia Pacific Theatre2
Jul-20 4Journal of The Military Balance, Vol. 120, 2020

5. APEC : Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (1989)
• APEC's 21 member economies are Australia; Brunei Darussalam; Canada;
Chile; People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Indonesia; Japan;
Republic of Korea; Malaysia; Mexico; New Zealand; Papua New Guinea;
Peru; The Philippines; The Russian Federation; Singapore; Chinese Taipei;
Thailand; United States of America; Viet Nam.
• APEC operates as a cooperative,
multilateral economic and trade
forum. It is the only international
inter governmental grouping in
the world committed to
reducing barriers to trade and
investment without requiring its
members to enter into legally
binding obligations. APEC
achieves its goals by promoting
dialogue and arriving at
decisions on a consensus basis,
giving equal weight to the views
of all members.
Jul-20 5

6. ASEAN Regional Forum (1994)
• Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Canada,
China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, European Union,
India, Indonesia, Japan, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar,
New Zealand, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines,
Republic of Korea, Russia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-
Leste, United States, and Viet Nam.
• to foster constructive
dialogue and consultation
on political and security
issues of common interest
and concern; and
• to make significant
contributions to efforts
towards confidence-
building and preventive
diplomacy in the Asia-
Pacific region
➔ Headed by Foreign Ministers
Jul-20 6

7. ASIA PACIFIC
• Shangri-la Dialogue
• Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, Canada, Chile, China, France
, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Mong
olia, Myanmar (Burma), New
Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Russia, South Korea, Sri
Lanka, Singapore, Sweden, Thailand, East Timor, United
Kingdom, United States and Vietnam.
✓IISS Asia security annual summit
started 2002 hosted by
Singapore
✓Some European Countries
participates
✓Promoting defence diplomacy
✓Inter governmental meeting, yet
attended by legislators,
academic experts, journalists
and business delegates
➔ Chaired by Defence Minister
Jul-20 7

8. ✓Infrastructure
Projects mainly
Ports, Railways,
Highways, Power
stations, Industrial
Complex, Aviation
and
Telecommunication
✓USD $ >10 Trillion
for investment
Jul-20 8
The Game Changer : Belt Road Initiative3

9. Xi JinPing 2013
Landmark Strategy
to be a Global
Power
✓ Silk Road → Belt
Road Initiative
✓Double track,
land and maritime
✓Financial
integration
✓Connecting
People
✓Debt Trap ?
Game of Thrones - Xi JinPing Plays His Cards Well
Jul-20 9

10. PRC to have Ports and Bases Up to Africa
➢Game of throne
✓Blue Ocean Strategy
✓East Africa to Pacific
✓North East China Sea
to Australia
➢ String of Pearls
in India Ocean Region
➢Economics means to
advance strategic
interest
➢Increasing leverage
Jul-20 10
Ref. JP Panda, Rising Power Quarterly, 2018 Collardeperlaschino.png

11. Energy Security and Sea Line of Communications4
Jul-20 11
Global Crude Oil Movement, BP Statistics 2020 Global Gas and LNG Movement, BP Statistics 2020

12. Jul-20 12

13. World Energy Consumption
Jul-20 13
BP Statistics Review, 2020

14. Sea Line of Communication – Maritime Sovereignty
✓Navy : Intimidate
smaller claimants and
deter larger ones
✓SLOC is vital in peace
or war time
✓China’s secure access
through Ports along
the route it helps to
build under BRI
Scheme
Jul-20 14The PLA Navy – New Capabilities and Missions for the 21 century

15. How China to secure access to Energy and Market
• No Foreign Country should ever
nurse hopes that we will bargain
over our core national interests.
(Xi Jinping, in Politbiro Jan. 2013)
▪ Three Line of Defences
▪ Sphere of Influences
▪ War (if any) as far away as
possible from the coastline of
the country
Jul-20 15
The PLA Navy – New Capabilities and Missions for the 21 century

16. Jul-20 16

17. The strategic role of Malacca Strait
connecting India, Mid East and Africa
• Crowded traffics
• Connecting Indian
Ocean to Pacific
Ocean
• A narrow choke
points
• Shallow detoured
• Security concern:
blockade,
terrorism, piracy
etc.
Jul-20 17

18. A complex cross territorial disputes in SCS
Jul-20 18
✓PRC Line of defence
demarcation
✓Cross claim among countries
in region
@ Indo Pacific News

19. ✓US Pacific Command
renamed in 2018
✓Change in Centre of
Gravity
✓Rebalancing to BRI
✓ Strategic Partnership 4
Quadrilateral Countries
(US – Japan – India –
Australia)
✓Respond to China’s
Game of thrones
US : From Asia Pacific to Indo Pacific5
Jul-20 19

20. Jul-20 20
US Global Fleet to patrol the globe
US Fleet

21. Free and Open Indo-Pacific
US AND ALLIES CONCERN :
• PRC Military modernization and coercive
actions
✓Modernize weaponry to be a global
power : Cyberspace, space and electronic
warfare
✓Developing anti access/ area denial for
maritime and air domains
• Respect for sovereignty and
independence of all nations
• Peaceful resolution of disputes
• Free, fair and reciprocal trade
based on open investment,
transparent agreements, and
connectivity; and
• Adherence to international rules
and norms, including those of
freedom of navigation and
overflightJul-20 21
PRINCIPLE FOUNDATION

22. The Name of a Game (Changer) ➔ as a direct challenge to establishment

23. Jul-20 23

24. Covid 19 : The Fittest Contestation Show
✓Covid 19 slow down the global economy
✓Economy – BRI is the strategic base of PRC
to ascend to Global Power
✓BRI has been in Chinese Constitution
✓It’s a landmark of President Xi Jianping
Foreign and Economic Policy
✓This disruptive event will not hamper
China to pursue BRI.
✓China will adopt new strategy scheme
including co financing with European,
Japan and host country
Jul-20 24
6

25. ✓Will distract, as the Election approach
✓The Indo Pacific Spirit among the allies
will be kept alive by creating tensions
✓Provocative and Propaganda will be
intensified
✓Military excellence will be capitalized
as show off
✓Testing the water may not be ruled out
Covid 19 : The Fittest Contestation Show
Jul-20 25

26. ✓Covid 19 Pandemic Disrupting
The Whole Global way of life
✓The Dynamics to a new
Equilibrium is a reflection of
Rebalancing The Power in Asia
Pacific
✓Non Major Countries Sitting
Geographically in sites should
smart and wise surf above the
waves
✓Beware of Security dilemma
trap
Jul-20 26
Concluding Remarks7

27. Jul-20 27
Thank You – Terima Kasih – Merdeka
• Sampe L. Purba
✓Profesional Energy –
Finance, Commercial, Legal
✓Alumni Lemhannas PPRA 49
• Instagram.com/sampe.purba
• linkedin.com/in/sampepurba
• Twitter.com/sampepurba
• Independent.academia.edu/SampePurba

28. Cooperation Schematics in Energy Asia Pacific
Jul-20 28
ESCAP, 2018

29. PRC to have Ports and Bases Up to Africa
➢Game of throne
✓Blue Ocean
Strategy
✓East Africa to
Pacific
✓North East China
Sea to Australia
➢Economics means to
advance strategic
interest
➢Increasing leverage
Jul-20 29
JP Panda, Rising Power Quarterly, 2018

30. Jul-20 30

31. Selected comparison US vs China
Jul-20 31