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20.02.2013



                                                                                        Company Analysis - Overview
Ticker:                    CHK US            Chesapeake Energy Corp                                       Benchmark:                                      Chesapeake Energy Corporation produces oil and natural gas. The Company's
Currency:                                    New York: CHK, Currency: USD                                 S&P 500 INDEX (SPX)                             operations are focused on discovering, developing and acquiring conventional and
                                                                                                                                                          unconventional natural gas reserves onshore in the United States.
Sector: Energy       Industry: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels                                                   Year:
Telephone         1-405-848-8000                   Revenue (M)                                  12'424    Business Segments in USD                                Sales (M)   Geographic Segments in USD                              Sales (M)
Website           www.chkenergy.com                No of Employees                              12'600    Oil and Natural Gas                                         6813    Unallocated Sales                                               1
Address           6100 North Western Avenue Oklahoma City, OK 73118 United States                         Gathering & Compression                                     5090
Share Price Performance in USD                                                                            Oilfield Services                                             521
Price                              20.60           1M Return                                     15.6%
52 Week High                       25.61           6M Return                                      7.2%
52 Week Low                        13.13           52 Wk Return                                 -15.1%
52 Wk Beta                          1.72           YTD Return                                    24.6%
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg                 IG10                                                                                                        4%
S&P                        BB-       Date                15.05.2012              Outlook           NEG
Moody's                    Ba3       Date                07.07.2005              Outlook           NEG
Fitch                      BB-       Date                18.05.2012              Outlook              -
Valuation Ratios
                         12/08      12/09       12/10         12/11    12/12E        12/13E     12/14E               41%
P/E                        4.6x     10.0x         8.8x          8.0x    42.4x         17.1x      10.6x                                                    55%
EV/EBIT                    6.4x     10.6x         9.7x          8.9x         -             -          -
EV/EBITDA                  4.0x       6.8x        6.6x          5.6x    10.3x           7.5x       6.0x
P/S                        0.8x       1.9x        1.6x          1.1x      1.4x          1.3x       1.2x
P/B                        0.6x       1.5x        1.4x          1.1x      1.1x          1.0x       0.9x
Div Yield                 1.8%       1.2%        1.2%          1.5%      1.7%          1.6%       1.7%                                                                                                    100%
Profitability Ratios %
                       12/08        12/09       12/10         12/11    12/12E        12/13E     12/14E
Gross Margin            68.1          66.5       71.3          71.1      31.2          31.6       33.9                          Oil and Natural Gas
EBITDA Margin           52.0          53.8       49.5          42.2      33.9          45.7       50.2
Operating Margin        32.2          34.3       33.4          26.7       -4.7         18.1       24.5
                                                                                                                                Gathering & Compression
Profit Margin             5.6        -70.3       17.7          14.0        2.4          8.7       13.0                                                                                                   Unallocated Sales
Return on Assets          1.7        -17.0        5.3           4.4       -1.1          3.1        4.3
Return on Equity          3.6        -42.6       14.4          12.2        1.1          6.2       11.5                          Oilfield Services
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
                       12/08        12/09       12/10         12/11
Current Ratio             1.2         0.9         0.7           0.4                                       Current Capitalization in USD
Quick Ratio               0.8         0.6         0.5           0.4                                       Common Shares Outstanding (M)                                                                                660.9
EBIT/Interest             4.1         3.8         4.6           4.3                                       Market Capitalization (M)                                                                                  13688.6
Tot Debt/Capital          0.4         0.5         0.5           0.4                                       Cash and ST Investments (M)                                                                                  142.0
Tot Debt/Equity           0.8         1.0         0.8           0.6                                       Total Debt (M)                                                                                             16218.0
Eff Tax Rate %          39.1            -        38.5          39.0                                       Preferred Equity (M)                                                                                        3062.0
                                                                                                          LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M)                                                                      0.0
                                                                                                          Investments (M)                                                                                             2364.0
                                                                                                          Enterprise Value (M)                                                                                       35190.6



                                                                                 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
Chesapeake Energy Corp
Target price in USD
Broker Recommendation




                                                              Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price




                                                                                                                                                                      Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Brokers' Target Price
                                                                                                                                                                 45           30
                        100%                                             6%        3%         3%        3%         3%                                  3%
                                                                8%                                                              6%            6%
                                  11%       11%       11%
                                                                                                                                                                 40           25

                        80%                                                                                                                                      35           20
                                                                                                                                                                              15
                                  41%       41%       42%      49%       56%
                                                                                   56%        56%      60%                                            62%        30
                                                                                                                   63%
                                                                                                                                62%          62%                              10
                        60%
                                                                                                                                                                 25
                                                                                                                                                                                5
                                                                                                                                                                 20
                        40%                                                                                                                                                     0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Brean Murray Carret & Co


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 BMO Capital Markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Barclays




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Simmons & Company


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Canaccord Genuity Corp




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                RBC Capital Markets




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      FBR Capital Markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Raymond James




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Credit Agricole Securities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Alembic Global Advisors




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Capital One Southcoast, Inc.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Global Hunter Securities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    SunTrust Robinson Humphrey
                                                                                                                                                                                    Sanford C. Bernstein & Co




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Credit Suisse




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             JPMorgan


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Macquarie
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oppenheimer & Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Stifel Nicolaus




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Sterne, Agee & Leach
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Argus Research Corp




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            EVA Dimensions




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Tudor Pickering & Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Johnson Rice & Co




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Goldman Sachs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Deutsche Bank
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jefferies




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Susquehanna Financial Group




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Ladenburg Thalmann & Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Robert W. Baird & Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Howard Weil Inc




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Wunderlich Securities
                                                                                                                                                                 15
                                  49%       49%       47%                                                                                                        10
                        20%                                    43%       39%       41%        41%      37%         34%                                35%
                                                                                                                                32%          32%
                                                                                                                                                                 5

                         0%                                                                                                                                      0
                                févr.12    mars.12   avr.12   mai.12    juin.12   juil.12   août.12   sept.12     oct.12      nov.12        déc.12   janv.13
                                                                       Buy        Hold         Sell       Price            Target Price

                               Date                     Buy             Hold                Sell                     Date                 Price Target Price                  Broker                                                                                                                                                                               Analyst                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Recommendation                                                                                                                                                            Target                                                                                              Date
                               31-Jan-13                35%              62%                 3%                   20-Feb-13                20.58         22.88                Sanford C. Bernstein & Co                                                                                                                                                           BOB BRACKETT                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      market perform                                                                                                                           22.00                                                                   20-Feb-13
                               31-Dec-12                32%              62%                 6%                   19-Feb-13                20.36         22.88                Jefferies                                                                                                                                                                           BIJU Z PERINCHERIL                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      buy                                                                                                                                26.00                                                                   19-Feb-13
                               30-Nov-12                32%              62%                 6%                   18-Feb-13                20.01         22.88                Stifel Nicolaus                                                                                                                                                                     AMIR ARIF                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               buy                                                                                                                                25.00                                                                   15-Feb-13
                               31-Oct-12                34%              63%                 3%                   15-Feb-13                20.01         22.88                Barclays                                                                                                                                                                            JEFFREY W ROBERTSON                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                equalweight                                                                                                                             24.00                                                                   15-Feb-13
                               28-Sep-12                37%              60%                 3%                   14-Feb-13                20.40         22.88                Brean Murray Carret & Co                                                                                                                                                            RAYMOND DEACON                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          hold                                                                                                                                                                                                       13-Feb-13
                               31-Aug-12                41%              56%                 3%                   13-Feb-13                20.57         22.88                SunTrust Robinson Humphrey                                                                                                                                                          NEAL DINGMANN                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         neutral                                                                                                                              19.00                                                                   11-Feb-13
                               31-Jul-12                41%              56%                 3%                   12-Feb-13                20.01         22.88                BMO Capital Markets                                                                                                                                                                 DAN MCSPIRIT                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      market perform                                                                                                                           22.00                                                                    4-Feb-13
                               29-Jun-12                39%              56%                 6%                   11-Feb-13                20.05         22.83                Raymond James                                                                                                                                                                       JOHN FREEMAN                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      market perform                                                                                                                                                                                                    4-Feb-13
                               31-May-12                43%              49%                 8%                    8-Feb-13                20.23         22.83                Simmons & Company International                                                                                                                                                     DAVID W KISTLER                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       neutral                                                                                                                              28.00                                                                    4-Feb-13
                               30-Apr-12                47%              42%                11%                    7-Feb-13                20.23         22.83                Alembic Global Advisors                                                                                                                                                             JAMES J SULLIVAN                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      neutral                                                                                                                              19.00                                                                    4-Feb-13
                               30-Mar-12                49%              41%                11%                    6-Feb-13                20.51         22.83                Canaccord Genuity Corp                                                                                                                                                              JOHN J GERDES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           buy                                                                                                                                28.00                                                                   31-Jan-13
                               29-Feb-12                49%              41%                11%                    5-Feb-13                20.54         22.83                Susquehanna Financial Group                                                                                                                                                         DUANE GRUBERT                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         neutral                                                                                                                              18.00                                                                   31-Jan-13
                                                                                                                   4-Feb-13                20.11         22.83                Argus Research Corp                                                                                                                                                                 PHILIP H WEISS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          hold                                                                                                                                                                                                       30-Jan-13
                                                                                                                   1-Feb-13                20.33         22.88                Howard Weil Inc                                                                                                                                                                     PETER KISSEL                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     sector outperform                                                                                                                         23.00                                                                   30-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  31-Jan-13                20.18         22.88                Capital One Southcoast, Inc.                                                                                                                                                        MARSHALL H CARVER VI                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    add                                                                                                                                26.00                                                                   30-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  30-Jan-13                20.11         22.88                Sterne, Agee & Leach                                                                                                                                                                TIM A REZVAN                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          neutral                                                                                                                                                                                                      30-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  29-Jan-13                18.97         22.78                Wunderlich Securities                                                                                                                                                               JASON A WANGLER                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         buy                                                                                                                                25.00                                                                   30-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  28-Jan-13                18.93         22.78                Wells Fargo Securities, LLC                                                                                                                                                         DAVID R TAMERON                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   market perform                                                                                                                                                                                                   30-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  25-Jan-13                19.36         22.78                RBC Capital Markets                                                                                                                                                                 SCOTT HANOLD                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      sector perform                                                                                                                           21.00                                                                   29-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  24-Jan-13                18.77         22.78                Credit Agricole Securities (USA)                                                                                                                                                    JEB S ARMSTRONG                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         buy                                                                                                                                27.00                                                                   29-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  23-Jan-13                18.50         22.78                Global Hunter Securities                                                                                                                                                            MICHAEL KELLY                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           buy                                                                                                                                22.00                                                                   29-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  22-Jan-13                18.73         22.78                Johnson Rice & Co                                                                                                                                                                   CHARLES MEADE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       overweight                                                                                                                                                                                                     28-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  21-Jan-13                17.82         22.78                Robert W. Baird & Co                                                                                                                                                                MICHAEL A HALL                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        neutral                                                                                                                              24.00                                                                   18-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  18-Jan-13                17.82         22.78                Credit Suisse                                                                                                                                                                       ARUN JAYARAM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          neutral                                                                                                                              22.00                                                                   17-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  17-Jan-13                17.55         22.83                Oppenheimer & Co                                                                                                                                                                    FADEL GHEIT                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         outperform                                                                                                                             24.00                                                                   17-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  16-Jan-13                17.31         22.77                EVA Dimensions                                                                                                                                                                      CRAIG STERLING                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     underweight                                                                                                                                                                                                     15-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  15-Jan-13                17.37         22.77                Deutsche Bank                                                                                                                                                                       STEPHEN RICHARDSON                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      hold                                                                                                                               20.00                                                                   14-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  14-Jan-13                16.94         22.77                JPMorgan                                                                                                                                                                            JOSEPH D ALLMAN                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     overweight                                                                                                                             20.00                                                                   14-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  11-Jan-13                16.87         23.00                Ladenburg Thalmann & Co                                                                                                                                                             MICHAEL SCHMITZ                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       neutral                                                                                                                              20.00                                                                   14-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  10-Jan-13                16.64         23.00                Macquarie                                                                                                                                                                           JOSEPH MAGNER                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         neutral                                                                                                                              19.00                                                                    7-Jan-13

                                                                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
20.02.2013



Chesapeake Energy Corp
                                                                              Company Analysis - Ownership
                                                                                     Ownership Type
Ownership Statistics                                                                                                                        Geographic Ownership Distribution                                             Geographic Ownership
                                                                                           2%
Shares Outstanding (M)                          660.9                        16%                                                            United States                             82.54%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1% 1% 4%
Float                                           89.4%                                                                                       Britain                                   4.80%                                     2%
Short Interest (M)                                77.2                                                                                      Bahamas                                   2.45%                              2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2%
Short Interest as % of Float                   13.06%                                                                                       Canada                                    2.13%
Days to Cover Shorts                              3.83                                                                                      Unknown Country                           1.93%                             5%
Institutional Ownership                        82.45%                                                                                       Germany                                   1.27%
Retail Ownership                               15.92%                                                                                       Japan                                     1.25%
Insider Ownership                               1.62%                                                                                       Others                                    3.64%

                                                                                                           82%                              Institutional Ownership Distribution                                                                     83%
                                                                                                                                            Investment Advisor                        77.68%
                                                                                                                                            Hedge Fund Manager                        14.57%
                                                                                                                                            Pension Fund (Erisa)                      2.84%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                United States         Britain            Bahamas
                                                           Institutional Ownership      Retail Ownership         Insider Ownership          Individual                                1.93%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Canada                Unknown Country    Germany
Pricing data is in USD                                                                                                                      Others                                    2.99%                     Japan                 Others
Top 20 Owners:                 TOP 20 ALL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Institutional Ownership
Holder Name                                    Position   Position Change                       Market Value               % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source       Country
SOUTHEASTERN ASSET M                        85'481'331          -4'237'700                      1'760'488'012                  12.86%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES                              2%            3%
ICAHN ASSOCIATES COR                        59'698'689           9'613'487                      1'229'494'500                   8.98%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES                             3%
ICAHN ASSOCIATES COR                        59'698'689                   0                      1'229'494'500                   8.98%                      31.12.2012   Research   UNITED STATES
FRANKLIN RESOURCES                          34'252'412           7'174'601                        705'428'425                   5.15%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        15%
BLACKROCK                                   29'102'143          -2'986'790                        599'358'635                   4.38%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
VANGUARD GROUP INC                          25'656'221             747'083                        528'389'871                   3.86%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
STATE STREET                                24'670'203             242'007                        508'082'831                   3.71%                      19.02.2013   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
WELLINGTON MANAGEMEN                        23'781'033           3'174'148                        489'770'375                   3.58%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
BANK OF AMERICA CORP                        16'076'279           5'022'300                        331'090'966                   2.42%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES                                                     77%
BRANDES INVESTMENT P                        12'740'892            -830'057                        262'398'671                   1.92%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
OLDFIELD PARTNERS LL                         9'140'400             384'100                        188'246'538                   1.38%                      31.12.2012     13F         BRITAIN
NORTHERN TRUST CORPO                         7'250'423              -6'964                        149'322'462                   1.09%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNAT                         6'976'795           2'846'012                        143'687'093                   1.05%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
BANK OF NEW YORK MEL                         6'794'499             937'512                        139'932'707                   1.02%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES   Investment Advisor           Hedge Fund Manager      Pension Fund (Erisa)
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Individual                   Others
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV                         6'205'209             567'637                        127'796'279                   0.93%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
MACKENZIE FINANCIAL                          5'057'882          -4'008'545                        104'167'080                   0.76%                      31.12.2012     13F         CANADA
CORTLAND ADVISERS LL                         4'868'900           4'868'900                        100'274'996                   0.73%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
MORGAN STANLEY                               4'837'769              10'445                         99'633'853                   0.73%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
DEUTSCHE BANK AG                             4'500'499            -484'943                         92'687'777                   0.68%                      31.12.2012     13F        GERMANY
FMR LLC                                      4'092'438          -2'266'979                         84'283'761                   0.62%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
Top 5 Insiders:


Holder Name                                   Position    Position Change                       Market Value               % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source
MCCLENDON AUBREY K                           3'183'188             177'915                         65'557'757                    0.48%                     29.01.2013    Form 4
DIXON STEVEN C                               1'201'014              88'960                         24'734'883                    0.18%                     29.01.2013    Form 4
JACOBSON DOUGLAS J                             972'304              69'190                         20'024'601                    0.15%                     29.01.2013    Form 4
HOOD HENRY J                                   704'429                                             14'507'715                    0.11%                     01.10.2012    Form 4
SIMPSON LOUIS A                                542'098                 3'997                       11'164'508                    0.08%                     13.12.2012    Form 4




                                                                               Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV
Chesapeake Energy Corp
Financial information is in USD (M)                                                                                                                                                Equivalent Estimates
Periodicity:             Fiscal Year                 12/01         12/02    12/03      12/04        12/05       12/06        12/07       12/08       12/09    12/10    12/11    12/12E      12/13E        12/14E
Income Statement
Revenue                                                969           739    1'717       2'709       4'624        6'830       8'174      10'832        8'290   10'023   12'424   10'027      10'208        11'670
  - Cost of Goods Sold                                 426           529    1'012         816       1'470        2'197       2'939       3'460        2'780    2'872    3'590

Gross Income                                           543           209     705        1'893       3'154        4'633       5'235        7'372       5'510    7'151    8'834    3'129       3'230         3'958
  - Selling, General & Admin Expenses                   23            18      24          896       1'422        1'661       2'212        3'882       2'665    3'805    5'515
          (Research & Dev Costs)

Operating Income                                       520           192     682         997        1'732        2'972       3'023        3'490       2'845    3'346    3'319     -468       1'847         2'858
  - Interest Expense                                    98           112     154         167          220          301         406          271         113       19       44
  - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)                      0             0       0           0            0            0           0            0           0        0        0
  - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)                   -16            12      26          25           19         -584         276        2'228      12'020      443      395

Pretax Income                                          438            67     501         805        1'493        3'255       2'341         991       -9'288    2'884    2'880     -290       1'830         2'792
  - Income Tax Expense                                 175            27     190         290          545        1'252         890         387       -3'483    1'110    1'123

Income Before XO Items                                 263            40     311         515          948        2'003       1'451         604       -5'805    1'774    1'757
   - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax                      46             0      -2           0            0            0           0           0            0        0        0
   - Minority Interests                                  0             0       0           0            0            0           0           0           25        0       15

Diluted EPS Before XO Items                           1.51          0.17    1.20        1.53         2.51        4.35        2.62         0.93       (9.57)    2.51     2.32

Net Income Adjusted*                                   201             95    304         458          924        2'291       1'657        1'999       1'608    1'971    1'936     238          886         1'518
EPS Adjusted                                          1.16          0.55    1.26        1.60         2.63        3.61        3.21         3.55        2.58     2.95     2.80     0.49         1.21         1.95
Dividends Per Share                                   0.00          0.06    0.14        0.17         0.20        0.23        0.26         0.29        0.30     0.30     0.34     0.34         0.34         0.34
        Payout Ratio %                                 0.0          35.4    10.1        10.3          7.1          4.8         9.7        31.1                 11.4     13.7     0.70         0.28         0.18

Total Shares Outstanding                               165           190     217         312          370         457          511         648         648      655      661
Diluted Shares Outstanding                             174           173     259         306          367         459          487         545         612      706      752

EBITDA                                                 698           427    1'068       1'602       2'668        4'422       4'994        5'634       4'460    4'960    5'242    3'398       4'670         5'856

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.




                                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV
Periodicity:                            12/01     12/02     12/03       12/04        12/05       12/06        12/07       12/08       12/09    12/10    12/11    12/12E   12/13E   12/14E
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets                   361.383   435.317   342.404      567.54    1183.397    1153.869        1396         4292        2446     3266     3177
  + Cash & Near Cash Items                 118       248        41           7          60           3            1        1'749         307      102      351
  + Short Term Investments                   0         0         0           0           0           0            0            0           0        0        0
  + Accounts & Notes Receivable             51       109       174        347          615         845        1'074        1'324       1'325    1'974    2'505
  + Inventories                             11        15        19          32          87          82           87           58          25        0        0
  + Other Current Assets                   182        63       109        181          421         225          234        1'161         789    1'190      321

Total Long-Term Assets                   1'925     2'440     4'230       7'677      14'935       23'263      29'338      34'301       27'468   33'913   38'658
  + Long Term Investments                    0         0         0          93         159          699         612         444          404    1'208    1'531
         Gross Fixed Assets              3'728     4'561     6'675      10'587      18'486       27'396      35'744      45'670       51'763   58'692   65'029
         Accumulated Depreciation        1'942     2'172     2'542       3'143       4'074        5'492       7'407      12'362       25'053   26'314   28'290
  + Net Fixed Assets                     1'786     2'390     4'133       7'444      14'412       21'904      28'337      33'308       26'710   32'378   36'739
  + Other Long Term Assets                 140        50        97         140         364          660         389         549          354      327      388

Total Current Liabilities                 173       266       513         964        1'964        1'890       2'761        3'621       2'688    4'490    7'082
  + Accounts Payable                       80        86       164         367          517          860       1'262        1'611         957    2'069    3'311
  + Short Term Borrowings                   1         0         0           0            0            0           0            0           0        0        0
  + Other Short Term Liabilities           93       180       349         597        1'447        1'030       1'499        2'010       1'731    2'421    3'771

Total Long Term Liabilities              1'346     1'702     2'326       4'118       7'980       11'276      15'843      17'955       14'885   17'425   16'792
  + Long Term Borrowings                 1'329     1'651     2'058       3'075       5'490        7'376      10'950      13'175       12'295   12'640   10'626
  + Other Long Term Borrowings              17        51       269       1'043       2'490        3'900       4'893       4'780        2'590    4'785    6'166

Total Liabilities                        1'519     1'968     2'839       5'082       9'944       13'166      18'604      21'576       17'573   21'915   23'874
  + Long Preferred Equity                  150       150       552         491       1'577        1'958         960         505          466    3'065    3'062
  + Minority Interest                        0         0         0           0           0            0           0           0          897        0    1'337
  + Share Capital & APIC                 1'037     1'208     1'391       2'443       3'807        5'878       7'037      11'686       12'152   12'201   12'153
  + Retained Earnings & Other Equity      -419      -450      -211         229         791        3'416       4'133       4'826       -1'174       -2    1'409

Total Shareholders Equity                 767       908      1'733       3'163       6'174       11'251      12'130      17'017       12'341   15'264   17'961

Total Liabilities & Equity               2'287     2'876     4'572       8'245      16'118       24'417      30'734      38'593       29'914   37'179   41'835

Book Value Per Share                      3.75      3.99      5.45        8.57       12.42        20.32       21.85       25.49        16.95    18.62    20.52    19.24    20.16    21.78
  Tangible Book Value Per Share           3.75      3.99      5.45        8.57       12.42        20.32       21.85       25.49        16.95    18.62    20.52




                                                              Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV
Periodicity:                           12/01    12/02   12/03      12/04        12/05       12/06        12/07       12/08       12/09     12/10     12/11    12/12E    12/13E   12/14E
Cash Flows
Net Income                               217      40      313        515          948        2'003       1'451          604      -5'830    1'774     1'742     -1'060     847     1'202
  + Depreciation & Amortization          178     235      386        606          936        1'449       1'971        2'144       1'615    1'614     1'923
  + Other Non-Cash Adjustments           124     137      205        376          702          518       1'311        2'555       8'707    1'160     1'644
  + Changes in Non-Cash Capital           35      20       42        -64         -180          873         199           54        -136      569       594

Cash From Operating Activities           554      433      946      1'432        2'407       4'843       4'932        5'357       4'356     5'117     5'903
  + Disposal of Fixed Assets               5        7       28          0           10         244         369           64       1'626     4'292     8'963
  + Capital Expenditures                -460     -769   -2'061     -3'341       -6'782      -8'726      -9'705      -17'770      -7'524   -13'513   -14'450   -10'872   -6'812   -7'328
  + Increase in Investments                0        0        0          0         -135        -555          -8            0         -40      -134         0
  + Decrease in Investments                0        0        0          0            0           0                        0           0         0         0
  + Other Investing Activities          -215      -17      -44        -40          -15          94       1'422        7'741         476       852      -325

Cash From Investing Activities           -670    -780   -2'077     -3'381       -6'921      -8'942      -7'922       -9'965      -5'462    -8'503    -5'812
  + Dividends Paid                         -1     -15      -48        -80          -92        -175        -210         -183        -204      -281      -379
  + Change in Short Term Borrowings         0       0       26          0           61          70         -98          330      -2'246     1'834    -1'604
  + Increase in Long Term Borrowings    1'462     699    1'223      3'326        8'607      10'125       9'539       15'427       1'491     1'967     1'614
  + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings   -1'365    -360     -851     -2'101       -5'765      -8'264      -6'160      -11'307           0    -3'434    -2'015
  + Increase in Capital Stocks            148     164      577        941        2'349       2'477          35        2'650           4     2'562         0
  + Decrease in Capital Stocks             -0       0       -2          0           -4         -86                       -5          -7         0         0
  + Other Financing Activities            -10     -11       -0       -171         -588        -105        -118         -556         626       533     2'542

Cash From Financing Activities           234     477      925       1'915       4'568        4'042       2'988        6'356       -336     3'181       158

Net Changes in Cash                      118     130     -207         -34          53          -58          -2        1'748      -1'442     -205       249

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX)                94     -336   -1'116     -1'909       -4'375      -3'882      -4'773      -12'413      -3'168    -8'396    -8'547    -7'959   -3'323   -2'988

Free Cash Flow To Firm                  153      -269   -1'020     -1'802      -4'235       -3'697      -4'521      -12'248                -8'384    -8'520
Free Cash Flow To Equity                312        -1     -309       -785        -418       -1'415      -2'215       -8'387      -2'359    -1'249    -1'764
Free Cash Flow per Share                0.58    -2.02    -5.28      -7.54      -13.58        -9.74      -10.47       -23.16       -5.18    -13.31    -13.42




                                                         Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV
Periodicity:                         12/01    12/02   12/03      12/04        12/05       12/06        12/07       12/08       12/09    12/10    12/11    12/12E   12/13E   12/14E
Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios
  Price Earnings                       5.7x   14.1x   10.8x       10.3x       12.3x         8.0x       12.9x         4.6x       10.0x     8.8x     8.0x    42.5x    17.1x    10.6x
  EV to EBIT                           4.7x   15.8x    8.1x        8.7x       10.8x         7.6x       10.6x         6.4x       10.6x     9.7x     8.9x
  EV to EBITDA                         3.5x    7.1x    5.2x        5.4x        7.0x         5.1x        6.4x         4.0x        6.8x     6.6x     5.6x    10.3x     7.5x     6.0x
  Price to Sales                       1.1x    1.7x    1.7x        1.5x        2.2x         1.7x        2.2x         0.8x        1.9x     1.6x     1.1x     1.4x     1.3x     1.2x
  Price to Book                        1.8x    1.9x    2.5x        1.9x        2.6x         1.4x        1.8x         0.6x        1.5x     1.4x     1.1x     1.1x     1.0x     0.9x
  Dividend Yield                      0.0%    0.8%    1.0%        1.0%        0.6%         0.8%        0.7%         1.8%        1.2%     1.2%     1.5%     1.7%     1.6%     1.7%

Profitability Ratios
  Gross Margin                       56.1%    28.3%   41.1%      69.9%        68.2%       67.8%        64.0%       68.1%        66.5%   71.3%    71.1%    31.2%    31.6%    33.9%
  EBITDA Margin                      72.0%    57.8%   62.2%      59.1%        57.7%       64.7%        61.1%       52.0%        53.8%   49.5%    42.2%    33.9%    45.7%    50.2%
  Operating Margin                   53.7%    26.0%   39.7%      36.8%        37.5%       43.5%        37.0%       32.2%        34.3%   33.4%    26.7%    -4.7%    18.1%    24.5%
  Profit Margin                      22.4%     5.5%   18.2%      19.0%        20.5%       29.3%        17.8%        5.6%       -70.3%   17.7%    14.0%     2.4%     8.7%    13.0%
  Return on Assets                   11.7%     1.6%    8.4%       8.0%         7.8%        9.9%         5.3%        1.7%       -17.0%    5.3%     4.4%    -1.1%     3.1%     4.3%
  Return on Equity                   47.9%     4.4%   30.0%      22.8%        24.2%       27.4%        12.0%        3.6%       -42.6%   14.4%    12.2%     1.1%     6.2%    11.5%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios
  Current Ratio                       2.08     1.64    0.67        0.59        0.60         0.61        0.51         1.19        0.91     0.73    0.45
  Quick Ratio                         0.98     1.34    0.42        0.37        0.34         0.45        0.39         0.85        0.61     0.46    0.40
  Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)    5.05     1.64    4.07        4.90        5.80         6.19        4.48         4.08        3.81     4.55    4.28
  Tot Debt/Capital                    0.63     0.65    0.54        0.49        0.47         0.40        0.47         0.44        0.50     0.45    0.37
  Tot Debt/Equity                     1.73     1.82    1.19        0.97        0.89         0.66        0.90         0.77        1.00     0.83    0.59

Others
  Asset Turnover                      0.52     0.29    0.46        0.42        0.38         0.34        0.30        0.31         0.24     0.30    0.31
  Accounts Receivable Turnover       13.05     9.19   12.14       10.40        9.61         9.35        8.52        9.03         6.26     6.08    5.55
  Accounts Payable Turnover           6.06     6.44    8.12        3.12        3.45         3.18        2.78        2.39         2.14     1.88    1.33
  Inventory Turnover                 61.71    40.73   58.47       31.75       24.66        26.06       34.88       47.72        66.99   229.76

  Effective Tax Rate                 39.9%    40.0%   38.0%      36.0%        36.5%       38.5%        38.0%       39.1%                38.5%    39.0%




                                                       Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Financial analysis   chesapeake energy corp - chesapeake energy corporation produces oil and natural gas.  the company's operations are focused on discovering, developing and acquiring conventional and unconventional natural gas reserves

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Financial analysis chesapeake energy corp - chesapeake energy corporation produces oil and natural gas. the company's operations are focused on discovering, developing and acquiring conventional and unconventional natural gas reserves

  • 1. 20.02.2013 Company Analysis - Overview Ticker: CHK US Chesapeake Energy Corp Benchmark: Chesapeake Energy Corporation produces oil and natural gas. The Company's Currency: New York: CHK, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) operations are focused on discovering, developing and acquiring conventional and unconventional natural gas reserves onshore in the United States. Sector: Energy Industry: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Year: Telephone 1-405-848-8000 Revenue (M) 12'424 Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M) Website www.chkenergy.com No of Employees 12'600 Oil and Natural Gas 6813 Unallocated Sales 1 Address 6100 North Western Avenue Oklahoma City, OK 73118 United States Gathering & Compression 5090 Share Price Performance in USD Oilfield Services 521 Price 20.60 1M Return 15.6% 52 Week High 25.61 6M Return 7.2% 52 Week Low 13.13 52 Wk Return -15.1% 52 Wk Beta 1.72 YTD Return 24.6% Credit Ratings Bloomberg IG10 4% S&P BB- Date 15.05.2012 Outlook NEG Moody's Ba3 Date 07.07.2005 Outlook NEG Fitch BB- Date 18.05.2012 Outlook - Valuation Ratios 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E 41% P/E 4.6x 10.0x 8.8x 8.0x 42.4x 17.1x 10.6x 55% EV/EBIT 6.4x 10.6x 9.7x 8.9x - - - EV/EBITDA 4.0x 6.8x 6.6x 5.6x 10.3x 7.5x 6.0x P/S 0.8x 1.9x 1.6x 1.1x 1.4x 1.3x 1.2x P/B 0.6x 1.5x 1.4x 1.1x 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x Div Yield 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 100% Profitability Ratios % 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Gross Margin 68.1 66.5 71.3 71.1 31.2 31.6 33.9 Oil and Natural Gas EBITDA Margin 52.0 53.8 49.5 42.2 33.9 45.7 50.2 Operating Margin 32.2 34.3 33.4 26.7 -4.7 18.1 24.5 Gathering & Compression Profit Margin 5.6 -70.3 17.7 14.0 2.4 8.7 13.0 Unallocated Sales Return on Assets 1.7 -17.0 5.3 4.4 -1.1 3.1 4.3 Return on Equity 3.6 -42.6 14.4 12.2 1.1 6.2 11.5 Oilfield Services Leverage and Coverage Ratios 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 Current Ratio 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 Current Capitalization in USD Quick Ratio 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 660.9 EBIT/Interest 4.1 3.8 4.6 4.3 Market Capitalization (M) 13688.6 Tot Debt/Capital 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 Cash and ST Investments (M) 142.0 Tot Debt/Equity 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 Total Debt (M) 16218.0 Eff Tax Rate % 39.1 - 38.5 39.0 Preferred Equity (M) 3062.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 2364.0 Enterprise Value (M) 35190.6 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 2. Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings Chesapeake Energy Corp Target price in USD Broker Recommendation Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price Price Brokers' Target Price 45 30 100% 6% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 8% 6% 6% 11% 11% 11% 40 25 80% 35 20 15 41% 41% 42% 49% 56% 56% 56% 60% 62% 30 63% 62% 62% 10 60% 25 5 20 40% 0 Brean Murray Carret & Co BMO Capital Markets Barclays Simmons & Company Canaccord Genuity Corp RBC Capital Markets FBR Capital Markets Raymond James Credit Agricole Securities Alembic Global Advisors Capital One Southcoast, Inc. Global Hunter Securities SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Sanford C. Bernstein & Co Credit Suisse JPMorgan Macquarie Oppenheimer & Co Stifel Nicolaus Sterne, Agee & Leach Argus Research Corp EVA Dimensions Tudor Pickering & Co Johnson Rice & Co Goldman Sachs Deutsche Bank Jefferies Susquehanna Financial Group Ladenburg Thalmann & Co Robert W. Baird & Co Howard Weil Inc Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wunderlich Securities 15 49% 49% 47% 10 20% 43% 39% 41% 41% 37% 34% 35% 32% 32% 5 0% 0 févr.12 mars.12 avr.12 mai.12 juin.12 juil.12 août.12 sept.12 oct.12 nov.12 déc.12 janv.13 Buy Hold Sell Price Target Price Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date 31-Jan-13 35% 62% 3% 20-Feb-13 20.58 22.88 Sanford C. Bernstein & Co BOB BRACKETT market perform 22.00 20-Feb-13 31-Dec-12 32% 62% 6% 19-Feb-13 20.36 22.88 Jefferies BIJU Z PERINCHERIL buy 26.00 19-Feb-13 30-Nov-12 32% 62% 6% 18-Feb-13 20.01 22.88 Stifel Nicolaus AMIR ARIF buy 25.00 15-Feb-13 31-Oct-12 34% 63% 3% 15-Feb-13 20.01 22.88 Barclays JEFFREY W ROBERTSON equalweight 24.00 15-Feb-13 28-Sep-12 37% 60% 3% 14-Feb-13 20.40 22.88 Brean Murray Carret & Co RAYMOND DEACON hold 13-Feb-13 31-Aug-12 41% 56% 3% 13-Feb-13 20.57 22.88 SunTrust Robinson Humphrey NEAL DINGMANN neutral 19.00 11-Feb-13 31-Jul-12 41% 56% 3% 12-Feb-13 20.01 22.88 BMO Capital Markets DAN MCSPIRIT market perform 22.00 4-Feb-13 29-Jun-12 39% 56% 6% 11-Feb-13 20.05 22.83 Raymond James JOHN FREEMAN market perform 4-Feb-13 31-May-12 43% 49% 8% 8-Feb-13 20.23 22.83 Simmons & Company International DAVID W KISTLER neutral 28.00 4-Feb-13 30-Apr-12 47% 42% 11% 7-Feb-13 20.23 22.83 Alembic Global Advisors JAMES J SULLIVAN neutral 19.00 4-Feb-13 30-Mar-12 49% 41% 11% 6-Feb-13 20.51 22.83 Canaccord Genuity Corp JOHN J GERDES buy 28.00 31-Jan-13 29-Feb-12 49% 41% 11% 5-Feb-13 20.54 22.83 Susquehanna Financial Group DUANE GRUBERT neutral 18.00 31-Jan-13 4-Feb-13 20.11 22.83 Argus Research Corp PHILIP H WEISS hold 30-Jan-13 1-Feb-13 20.33 22.88 Howard Weil Inc PETER KISSEL sector outperform 23.00 30-Jan-13 31-Jan-13 20.18 22.88 Capital One Southcoast, Inc. MARSHALL H CARVER VI add 26.00 30-Jan-13 30-Jan-13 20.11 22.88 Sterne, Agee & Leach TIM A REZVAN neutral 30-Jan-13 29-Jan-13 18.97 22.78 Wunderlich Securities JASON A WANGLER buy 25.00 30-Jan-13 28-Jan-13 18.93 22.78 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC DAVID R TAMERON market perform 30-Jan-13 25-Jan-13 19.36 22.78 RBC Capital Markets SCOTT HANOLD sector perform 21.00 29-Jan-13 24-Jan-13 18.77 22.78 Credit Agricole Securities (USA) JEB S ARMSTRONG buy 27.00 29-Jan-13 23-Jan-13 18.50 22.78 Global Hunter Securities MICHAEL KELLY buy 22.00 29-Jan-13 22-Jan-13 18.73 22.78 Johnson Rice & Co CHARLES MEADE overweight 28-Jan-13 21-Jan-13 17.82 22.78 Robert W. Baird & Co MICHAEL A HALL neutral 24.00 18-Jan-13 18-Jan-13 17.82 22.78 Credit Suisse ARUN JAYARAM neutral 22.00 17-Jan-13 17-Jan-13 17.55 22.83 Oppenheimer & Co FADEL GHEIT outperform 24.00 17-Jan-13 16-Jan-13 17.31 22.77 EVA Dimensions CRAIG STERLING underweight 15-Jan-13 15-Jan-13 17.37 22.77 Deutsche Bank STEPHEN RICHARDSON hold 20.00 14-Jan-13 14-Jan-13 16.94 22.77 JPMorgan JOSEPH D ALLMAN overweight 20.00 14-Jan-13 11-Jan-13 16.87 23.00 Ladenburg Thalmann & Co MICHAEL SCHMITZ neutral 20.00 14-Jan-13 10-Jan-13 16.64 23.00 Macquarie JOSEPH MAGNER neutral 19.00 7-Jan-13 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 3. 20.02.2013 Chesapeake Energy Corp Company Analysis - Ownership Ownership Type Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution Geographic Ownership 2% Shares Outstanding (M) 660.9 16% United States 82.54% 1% 1% 4% Float 89.4% Britain 4.80% 2% Short Interest (M) 77.2 Bahamas 2.45% 2% 2% Short Interest as % of Float 13.06% Canada 2.13% Days to Cover Shorts 3.83 Unknown Country 1.93% 5% Institutional Ownership 82.45% Germany 1.27% Retail Ownership 15.92% Japan 1.25% Insider Ownership 1.62% Others 3.64% 82% Institutional Ownership Distribution 83% Investment Advisor 77.68% Hedge Fund Manager 14.57% Pension Fund (Erisa) 2.84% United States Britain Bahamas Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership Individual 1.93% Canada Unknown Country Germany Pricing data is in USD Others 2.99% Japan Others Top 20 Owners: TOP 20 ALL Institutional Ownership Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country SOUTHEASTERN ASSET M 85'481'331 -4'237'700 1'760'488'012 12.86% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES 2% 3% ICAHN ASSOCIATES COR 59'698'689 9'613'487 1'229'494'500 8.98% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES 3% ICAHN ASSOCIATES COR 59'698'689 0 1'229'494'500 8.98% 31.12.2012 Research UNITED STATES FRANKLIN RESOURCES 34'252'412 7'174'601 705'428'425 5.15% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 15% BLACKROCK 29'102'143 -2'986'790 599'358'635 4.38% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES VANGUARD GROUP INC 25'656'221 747'083 528'389'871 3.86% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES STATE STREET 24'670'203 242'007 508'082'831 3.71% 19.02.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES WELLINGTON MANAGEMEN 23'781'033 3'174'148 489'770'375 3.58% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES BANK OF AMERICA CORP 16'076'279 5'022'300 331'090'966 2.42% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES 77% BRANDES INVESTMENT P 12'740'892 -830'057 262'398'671 1.92% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES OLDFIELD PARTNERS LL 9'140'400 384'100 188'246'538 1.38% 31.12.2012 13F BRITAIN NORTHERN TRUST CORPO 7'250'423 -6'964 149'322'462 1.09% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES SUSQUEHANNA INTERNAT 6'976'795 2'846'012 143'687'093 1.05% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES BANK OF NEW YORK MEL 6'794'499 937'512 139'932'707 1.02% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES Investment Advisor Hedge Fund Manager Pension Fund (Erisa) Individual Others DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV 6'205'209 567'637 127'796'279 0.93% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES MACKENZIE FINANCIAL 5'057'882 -4'008'545 104'167'080 0.76% 31.12.2012 13F CANADA CORTLAND ADVISERS LL 4'868'900 4'868'900 100'274'996 0.73% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES MORGAN STANLEY 4'837'769 10'445 99'633'853 0.73% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES DEUTSCHE BANK AG 4'500'499 -484'943 92'687'777 0.68% 31.12.2012 13F GERMANY FMR LLC 4'092'438 -2'266'979 84'283'761 0.62% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES Top 5 Insiders: Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source MCCLENDON AUBREY K 3'183'188 177'915 65'557'757 0.48% 29.01.2013 Form 4 DIXON STEVEN C 1'201'014 88'960 24'734'883 0.18% 29.01.2013 Form 4 JACOBSON DOUGLAS J 972'304 69'190 20'024'601 0.15% 29.01.2013 Form 4 HOOD HENRY J 704'429 14'507'715 0.11% 01.10.2012 Form 4 SIMPSON LOUIS A 542'098 3'997 11'164'508 0.08% 13.12.2012 Form 4 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 4. Company Analysis - Financials I/IV Chesapeake Energy Corp Financial information is in USD (M) Equivalent Estimates Periodicity: Fiscal Year 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Income Statement Revenue 969 739 1'717 2'709 4'624 6'830 8'174 10'832 8'290 10'023 12'424 10'027 10'208 11'670 - Cost of Goods Sold 426 529 1'012 816 1'470 2'197 2'939 3'460 2'780 2'872 3'590 Gross Income 543 209 705 1'893 3'154 4'633 5'235 7'372 5'510 7'151 8'834 3'129 3'230 3'958 - Selling, General & Admin Expenses 23 18 24 896 1'422 1'661 2'212 3'882 2'665 3'805 5'515 (Research & Dev Costs) Operating Income 520 192 682 997 1'732 2'972 3'023 3'490 2'845 3'346 3'319 -468 1'847 2'858 - Interest Expense 98 112 154 167 220 301 406 271 113 19 44 - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -16 12 26 25 19 -584 276 2'228 12'020 443 395 Pretax Income 438 67 501 805 1'493 3'255 2'341 991 -9'288 2'884 2'880 -290 1'830 2'792 - Income Tax Expense 175 27 190 290 545 1'252 890 387 -3'483 1'110 1'123 Income Before XO Items 263 40 311 515 948 2'003 1'451 604 -5'805 1'774 1'757 - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 46 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 15 Diluted EPS Before XO Items 1.51 0.17 1.20 1.53 2.51 4.35 2.62 0.93 (9.57) 2.51 2.32 Net Income Adjusted* 201 95 304 458 924 2'291 1'657 1'999 1'608 1'971 1'936 238 886 1'518 EPS Adjusted 1.16 0.55 1.26 1.60 2.63 3.61 3.21 3.55 2.58 2.95 2.80 0.49 1.21 1.95 Dividends Per Share 0.00 0.06 0.14 0.17 0.20 0.23 0.26 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 Payout Ratio % 0.0 35.4 10.1 10.3 7.1 4.8 9.7 31.1 11.4 13.7 0.70 0.28 0.18 Total Shares Outstanding 165 190 217 312 370 457 511 648 648 655 661 Diluted Shares Outstanding 174 173 259 306 367 459 487 545 612 706 752 EBITDA 698 427 1'068 1'602 2'668 4'422 4'994 5'634 4'460 4'960 5'242 3'398 4'670 5'856 *Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges. Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 5. Company Analysis - Financials II/IV Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Balance Sheet Total Current Assets 361.383 435.317 342.404 567.54 1183.397 1153.869 1396 4292 2446 3266 3177 + Cash & Near Cash Items 118 248 41 7 60 3 1 1'749 307 102 351 + Short Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Accounts & Notes Receivable 51 109 174 347 615 845 1'074 1'324 1'325 1'974 2'505 + Inventories 11 15 19 32 87 82 87 58 25 0 0 + Other Current Assets 182 63 109 181 421 225 234 1'161 789 1'190 321 Total Long-Term Assets 1'925 2'440 4'230 7'677 14'935 23'263 29'338 34'301 27'468 33'913 38'658 + Long Term Investments 0 0 0 93 159 699 612 444 404 1'208 1'531 Gross Fixed Assets 3'728 4'561 6'675 10'587 18'486 27'396 35'744 45'670 51'763 58'692 65'029 Accumulated Depreciation 1'942 2'172 2'542 3'143 4'074 5'492 7'407 12'362 25'053 26'314 28'290 + Net Fixed Assets 1'786 2'390 4'133 7'444 14'412 21'904 28'337 33'308 26'710 32'378 36'739 + Other Long Term Assets 140 50 97 140 364 660 389 549 354 327 388 Total Current Liabilities 173 266 513 964 1'964 1'890 2'761 3'621 2'688 4'490 7'082 + Accounts Payable 80 86 164 367 517 860 1'262 1'611 957 2'069 3'311 + Short Term Borrowings 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Other Short Term Liabilities 93 180 349 597 1'447 1'030 1'499 2'010 1'731 2'421 3'771 Total Long Term Liabilities 1'346 1'702 2'326 4'118 7'980 11'276 15'843 17'955 14'885 17'425 16'792 + Long Term Borrowings 1'329 1'651 2'058 3'075 5'490 7'376 10'950 13'175 12'295 12'640 10'626 + Other Long Term Borrowings 17 51 269 1'043 2'490 3'900 4'893 4'780 2'590 4'785 6'166 Total Liabilities 1'519 1'968 2'839 5'082 9'944 13'166 18'604 21'576 17'573 21'915 23'874 + Long Preferred Equity 150 150 552 491 1'577 1'958 960 505 466 3'065 3'062 + Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 897 0 1'337 + Share Capital & APIC 1'037 1'208 1'391 2'443 3'807 5'878 7'037 11'686 12'152 12'201 12'153 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity -419 -450 -211 229 791 3'416 4'133 4'826 -1'174 -2 1'409 Total Shareholders Equity 767 908 1'733 3'163 6'174 11'251 12'130 17'017 12'341 15'264 17'961 Total Liabilities & Equity 2'287 2'876 4'572 8'245 16'118 24'417 30'734 38'593 29'914 37'179 41'835 Book Value Per Share 3.75 3.99 5.45 8.57 12.42 20.32 21.85 25.49 16.95 18.62 20.52 19.24 20.16 21.78 Tangible Book Value Per Share 3.75 3.99 5.45 8.57 12.42 20.32 21.85 25.49 16.95 18.62 20.52 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 6. Company Analysis - Financials III/IV Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Cash Flows Net Income 217 40 313 515 948 2'003 1'451 604 -5'830 1'774 1'742 -1'060 847 1'202 + Depreciation & Amortization 178 235 386 606 936 1'449 1'971 2'144 1'615 1'614 1'923 + Other Non-Cash Adjustments 124 137 205 376 702 518 1'311 2'555 8'707 1'160 1'644 + Changes in Non-Cash Capital 35 20 42 -64 -180 873 199 54 -136 569 594 Cash From Operating Activities 554 433 946 1'432 2'407 4'843 4'932 5'357 4'356 5'117 5'903 + Disposal of Fixed Assets 5 7 28 0 10 244 369 64 1'626 4'292 8'963 + Capital Expenditures -460 -769 -2'061 -3'341 -6'782 -8'726 -9'705 -17'770 -7'524 -13'513 -14'450 -10'872 -6'812 -7'328 + Increase in Investments 0 0 0 0 -135 -555 -8 0 -40 -134 0 + Decrease in Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Other Investing Activities -215 -17 -44 -40 -15 94 1'422 7'741 476 852 -325 Cash From Investing Activities -670 -780 -2'077 -3'381 -6'921 -8'942 -7'922 -9'965 -5'462 -8'503 -5'812 + Dividends Paid -1 -15 -48 -80 -92 -175 -210 -183 -204 -281 -379 + Change in Short Term Borrowings 0 0 26 0 61 70 -98 330 -2'246 1'834 -1'604 + Increase in Long Term Borrowings 1'462 699 1'223 3'326 8'607 10'125 9'539 15'427 1'491 1'967 1'614 + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -1'365 -360 -851 -2'101 -5'765 -8'264 -6'160 -11'307 0 -3'434 -2'015 + Increase in Capital Stocks 148 164 577 941 2'349 2'477 35 2'650 4 2'562 0 + Decrease in Capital Stocks -0 0 -2 0 -4 -86 -5 -7 0 0 + Other Financing Activities -10 -11 -0 -171 -588 -105 -118 -556 626 533 2'542 Cash From Financing Activities 234 477 925 1'915 4'568 4'042 2'988 6'356 -336 3'181 158 Net Changes in Cash 118 130 -207 -34 53 -58 -2 1'748 -1'442 -205 249 Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 94 -336 -1'116 -1'909 -4'375 -3'882 -4'773 -12'413 -3'168 -8'396 -8'547 -7'959 -3'323 -2'988 Free Cash Flow To Firm 153 -269 -1'020 -1'802 -4'235 -3'697 -4'521 -12'248 -8'384 -8'520 Free Cash Flow To Equity 312 -1 -309 -785 -418 -1'415 -2'215 -8'387 -2'359 -1'249 -1'764 Free Cash Flow per Share 0.58 -2.02 -5.28 -7.54 -13.58 -9.74 -10.47 -23.16 -5.18 -13.31 -13.42 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 7. Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Ratio Analysis Valuation Ratios Price Earnings 5.7x 14.1x 10.8x 10.3x 12.3x 8.0x 12.9x 4.6x 10.0x 8.8x 8.0x 42.5x 17.1x 10.6x EV to EBIT 4.7x 15.8x 8.1x 8.7x 10.8x 7.6x 10.6x 6.4x 10.6x 9.7x 8.9x EV to EBITDA 3.5x 7.1x 5.2x 5.4x 7.0x 5.1x 6.4x 4.0x 6.8x 6.6x 5.6x 10.3x 7.5x 6.0x Price to Sales 1.1x 1.7x 1.7x 1.5x 2.2x 1.7x 2.2x 0.8x 1.9x 1.6x 1.1x 1.4x 1.3x 1.2x Price to Book 1.8x 1.9x 2.5x 1.9x 2.6x 1.4x 1.8x 0.6x 1.5x 1.4x 1.1x 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% Profitability Ratios Gross Margin 56.1% 28.3% 41.1% 69.9% 68.2% 67.8% 64.0% 68.1% 66.5% 71.3% 71.1% 31.2% 31.6% 33.9% EBITDA Margin 72.0% 57.8% 62.2% 59.1% 57.7% 64.7% 61.1% 52.0% 53.8% 49.5% 42.2% 33.9% 45.7% 50.2% Operating Margin 53.7% 26.0% 39.7% 36.8% 37.5% 43.5% 37.0% 32.2% 34.3% 33.4% 26.7% -4.7% 18.1% 24.5% Profit Margin 22.4% 5.5% 18.2% 19.0% 20.5% 29.3% 17.8% 5.6% -70.3% 17.7% 14.0% 2.4% 8.7% 13.0% Return on Assets 11.7% 1.6% 8.4% 8.0% 7.8% 9.9% 5.3% 1.7% -17.0% 5.3% 4.4% -1.1% 3.1% 4.3% Return on Equity 47.9% 4.4% 30.0% 22.8% 24.2% 27.4% 12.0% 3.6% -42.6% 14.4% 12.2% 1.1% 6.2% 11.5% Leverage & Coverage Ratios Current Ratio 2.08 1.64 0.67 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.51 1.19 0.91 0.73 0.45 Quick Ratio 0.98 1.34 0.42 0.37 0.34 0.45 0.39 0.85 0.61 0.46 0.40 Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 5.05 1.64 4.07 4.90 5.80 6.19 4.48 4.08 3.81 4.55 4.28 Tot Debt/Capital 0.63 0.65 0.54 0.49 0.47 0.40 0.47 0.44 0.50 0.45 0.37 Tot Debt/Equity 1.73 1.82 1.19 0.97 0.89 0.66 0.90 0.77 1.00 0.83 0.59 Others Asset Turnover 0.52 0.29 0.46 0.42 0.38 0.34 0.30 0.31 0.24 0.30 0.31 Accounts Receivable Turnover 13.05 9.19 12.14 10.40 9.61 9.35 8.52 9.03 6.26 6.08 5.55 Accounts Payable Turnover 6.06 6.44 8.12 3.12 3.45 3.18 2.78 2.39 2.14 1.88 1.33 Inventory Turnover 61.71 40.73 58.47 31.75 24.66 26.06 34.88 47.72 66.99 229.76 Effective Tax Rate 39.9% 40.0% 38.0% 36.0% 36.5% 38.5% 38.0% 39.1% 38.5% 39.0% Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |