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20.02.2013



                                                                                       Company Analysis - Overview
                                                                                                                                                       Cresud SACIF y A is an Argentine agricultural company, with a growing presence in
Ticker:                    CRESY US          Cresud SACIF y A                                             Benchmark:                                   Latin American countries, engaged in a range of activities including crop production,
Currency:                                    NASDAQ GS: CRESY, Currency: USD                              S&P 500 INDEX (SPX)                          cattle raising and milk production. The Company's business model, rolled out in
                                                                                                                                                       Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, focuses on the acquisition, development and
Sector: Financials       Industry: Real Estate Management & Devel                                            Year:                                     exploitation of agricultural properties.

Telephone         54-11-4323-7449                      Revenue (M)                                 804    Business Segments in USD                             Sales (M)    Geographic Segments in USD                               Sales (M)
Website           www.cresud.com.ar                    No of Employees                        #N/A N/A    Real Estate                                                348    Worlwide                                                        57
Address           Moreno, 877, 23 Floor Buenos Aires, C1091AAQ Argentina                                  Farm                                                        57
Share Price Performance in USD                                                                            Dairy Farm
Price                                8.68              1M Return                                 -4.9%    Cattle Ranching
52 Week High                        12.78              6M Return                                  9.2%    Grains
52 Week Low                          6.30              52 Wk Return                             -31.0%
52 Wk Beta                           1.11              YTD Return                                 4.3%
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg                     -
S&P                           -       Date              -                       Outlook              -                       14%
Moody's                       -       Date              -                       Outlook              -
Fitch                         -       Date              -                       Outlook           NEG
Valuation Ratios
                          6/09        6/10      6/11        6/12       6/13E         6/14E       6/15E
P/E                           -          -          -           -      20.6x         10.3x         8.0x
EV/EBIT                   19.8x       9.6x      11.7x       11.8x           -             -           -
EV/EBITDA                 12.3x       7.3x       9.2x        8.6x           -             -           -
P/S                           -          -          -           -        0.8x          0.7x        0.7x
P/B                           -          -          -           -        1.1x          1.0x        0.9x
Div Yield                     -          -          -           -       1.3%          2.6%        3.5%                                        86%                                                        100%
Profitability Ratios %
                        6/09          6/10       6/11       6/12       6/13E         6/14E       6/15E
Gross Margin            59.0          68.6       55.9       35.6           -             -           -
EBITDA Margin           24.2          40.9       36.3       25.8        43.9          42.5        45.0
Operating Margin        15.1          31.2       28.6       18.9           -             -           -
                                                                                                                             Real Estate        Farm
Profit Margin             8.7          9.8        8.4        2.3         5.7           8.7        12.8                                                                                                     Worlwide
Return on Assets          3.1          2.9        2.6        0.8           -             -           -
Return on Equity          7.0          9.8       10.2        3.7         7.6          13.7        16.7
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
                        6/09          6/10       6/11       6/12
Current Ratio             0.9          0.8        1.0        0.9                                          Current Capitalization in USD
Quick Ratio               0.6          0.4        0.5        0.5                                          Common Shares Outstanding (M)                                                        #N/A Field Not Applicable
EBIT/Interest             1.5          3.2        2.5        1.6                                          Market Capitalization (M)                                                                               435.4
Tot Debt/Capital          0.3          0.3        0.4        0.5                                          Cash and ST Investments (M)                                                                             129.7
Tot Debt/Equity           0.4          0.5        0.7        1.0                                          Total Debt (M)                                                                                          858.4
Eff Tax Rate %          29.8          28.3       24.7        7.2                                          Preferred Equity (M)                                                                                       0.0
                                                                                                          LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M)                                                                  0.0
                                                                                                          Investments (M)                                                                                         440.1
                                                                                                          Enterprise Value (M)                                                                                   1604.1



                                                                                Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
Cresud SACIF y A
Target price in USD
Broker Recommendation




                                                              Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price




                                                                                                                                                                    Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Brokers' Target Price
                                                                                                                                                               25           18
                        100%      0%         0%       0%        0%       0%        0%         0%        0%         0%           0%          0%
                                                                                                                                                                            16
                                                                                                                               33%                  33%        20
                        80%                                                                                                                                                 14
                                  50%       50%       50%      50%       50%       50%        50%      50%         50%                     50%
                                                                                                                                                     0%
                                                                                                                                                                            12
                        60%                                                                                                                                    15
                                                                                                                                                                            10
                                                                                                                                                                              8
                        40%                                                                                                                                    10
                                                                                                                                                                              6
                                                                                                                               67%                  67%
                                  50%       50%       50%      50%       50%       50%        50%      50%         50%                     50%                                4
                        20%                                                                                                                                    5
                                                                                                                                                                              2
                                                                                                                                                                              0
                         0%                                                                                                                                    0




                                                                                                                                                                                              Raymond




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          HSBC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Santander




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Dimensions
                                                                                                                                                                                               James




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Grupo
                                févr.12    mars.12   avr.12   mai.12    juin.12   juil.12   août.12   sept.12     oct.12      nov.12      déc.12   janv.13




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 EVA
                                                                       Buy        Hold         Sell       Price            Target Price

                               Date                     Buy             Hold                Sell                     Date              Price Target Price                   Broker                      Analyst                       Recommendation     Target               Date
                               31-Jan-13                67%               0%                33%                   20-Feb-13               8.68         13.45                Raymond James               PEDRO J RICHARDS                   outperform      17.00           19-Feb-13
                               31-Dec-12                50%              50%                 0%                   19-Feb-13               8.81         13.45                Grupo Santander             WALTER CHIARVESIO                 underperform      9.90            7-Jan-13
                               30-Nov-12                67%              33%                 0%                   18-Feb-13               8.58         13.45                HSBC                        PEDRO HERRERA                      overweight      17.00           17-Sep-12
                               31-Oct-12                50%              50%                 0%                   15-Feb-13               8.58         13.45                EVA Dimensions              TEAM COVERAGE                         hold                         18-Nov-11
                               28-Sep-12                50%              50%                 0%                   14-Feb-13               8.71         13.45
                               31-Aug-12                50%              50%                 0%                   13-Feb-13               8.65         13.45
                               31-Jul-12                50%              50%                 0%                   12-Feb-13               8.87         13.45
                               29-Jun-12                50%              50%                 0%                   11-Feb-13               9.03         13.45
                               31-May-12                50%              50%                 0%                    8-Feb-13               9.10         13.45
                               30-Apr-12                50%              50%                 0%                    7-Feb-13               9.30         13.45
                               30-Mar-12                50%              50%                 0%                    6-Feb-13               9.63         13.45
                               29-Feb-12                50%              50%                 0%                    5-Feb-13               9.77         13.45
                                                                                                                   4-Feb-13               9.50         13.45
                                                                                                                   1-Feb-13               9.63         13.45
                                                                                                                  31-Jan-13               9.55         13.45
                                                                                                                  30-Jan-13               9.65         13.45
                                                                                                                  29-Jan-13               9.02          9.90
                                                                                                                  28-Jan-13               8.93          9.90
                                                                                                                  25-Jan-13               9.02          9.90
                                                                                                                  24-Jan-13               9.09          9.90
                                                                                                                  23-Jan-13               9.10          9.90
                                                                                                                  22-Jan-13               9.52          9.90
                                                                                                                  21-Jan-13               9.13          9.90
                                                                                                                  18-Jan-13               9.13          9.90
                                                                                                                  17-Jan-13               8.75          9.90
                                                                                                                  16-Jan-13               8.58          9.90
                                                                                                                  15-Jan-13               8.69          9.90
                                                                                                                  14-Jan-13               8.79          9.90
                                                                                                                  11-Jan-13               8.85          9.90
                                                                                                                  10-Jan-13               8.80          9.90

                                                                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
20.02.2013



Cresud SACIF y A
                                                                                Company Analysis - Ownership
                                                                                       Ownership Type
Ownership Statistics                                                                                                                    Geographic Ownership Distribution                      Geographic Ownership
                                                                                              1%
Shares Outstanding (M)         #N/A Field Not Applicable                                                                                Others                                   100.00%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          0% 0% 0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               0%
Float                                                                                                                                                                             0.00%                  0%       0%
Short Interest (M)                                   0.1                                                                                                                          0.00%
Short Interest as % of Float                                                                                                                                                      0.00%
Days to Cover Shorts                                1.35                                                                                                                          0.00%
Institutional Ownership                                                                                                                                                           0.00%
Retail Ownership                                                                                                                                                                  0.00%
Insider Ownership                                                                                                                       Others                                    0.00%

                                                                                                                                        Institutional Ownership Distribution
                                                                                                                                        Others                                   100.00%                       100%
                                                                                                                                                                                  0.00%
                                                                                                                                                                                  0.00%
                                                             Institutional Ownership      Retail Ownership   Insider Ownership                                                    0.00%
Pricing data is in USD                                                                                                                  Others                                    0.00%         Others                    Others
Top 20 Owners:                  TOP 20 ALL

                                                                                                                                                                                               Institutional Ownership
Holder Name                                      Position   Position Change                      Market Value          % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source       Country
MACQUARIE GROUP LTD                            1'879'565                   0                      16'314'624                3.75%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG     AUSTRALIA                 0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          0%     0%
GLOBAL THEMATIC PART                           1'591'495                   0                      13'814'177                3.17%                      31.12.2012      13F     UNITED STATES             0%
TRADEWINDS GLOBAL IN                           1'572'588           -205'935                       13'650'064                3.14%                      31.12.2012      13F     UNITED STATES
DWS INVESTMENT S A                             1'371'605                   0                      11'905'531                2.73%                      28.12.2012   MF-AGG     LUXEMBOURG
D E SHAW & COMPANY I                           1'363'313            -28'003                       11'833'557                2.72%                      31.12.2012      13F     UNITED STATES
PARAMETRIC PORTFOLIO                           1'040'365              -3'607                       9'030'368                2.07%                      31.12.2012      13F     UNITED STATES
HORIZON KINETICS                               1'025'579            -19'822                        8'902'026                2.04%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
DEUTSCHE BANK AG                                 983'241             11'664                        8'534'532                1.96%                      31.12.2012      13F       GERMANY
VINIK ASSET MANAGEME                             779'600            376'200                        6'766'928                1.55%                      31.12.2012      13F     UNITED STATES
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C                             743'734            -20'700                        6'455'611                1.48%                      31.12.2012      13F     UNITED STATES                 100%
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C                             740'968                -353                       6'431'602                1.48%                      15.02.2013   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
ODYSSEY REINS CO                                 723'012           -112'996                        6'275'744                1.44%                      30.09.2012     Sch-D    UNITED STATES
FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HO                             723'012                   0                       6'275'744                1.44%                      31.12.2012      13F        CANADA
CREDIT SUISSE AG                                 605'835             22'086                        5'258'648                1.21%                      31.12.2012      13F     SWITZERLAND
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Others            Others
RUANE CUNNIFF & GOLD                             605'247                   0                       5'253'544                1.21%                      31.12.2012      13F     UNITED STATES
WARBURG INVEST LUXEM                             577'000                   0                       5'008'360                1.15%                      31.12.2012   MF-AGG     LUXEMBOURG
EATON VANCE MANAGEME                             423'761                   0                       3'678'245                0.84%                      31.12.2012   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
NUVEEN ASSET MANAGEM                             223'072            -10'491                        1'936'265                0.44%                      31.01.2013   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLO                             204'568              -1'854                       1'775'650                0.41%                      31.12.2012      13F     UNITED STATES
BANK OF NEW YORK MEL                             195'617             11'630                        1'697'956                0.39%                      31.12.2012      13F     UNITED STATES
Top 5 Insiders:


Holder Name                                      Position   Position Change                      Market Value          % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source




                                                                                 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV
Cresud SACIF y A
Financial information is in USD (M)                                                                                                                                        Equivalent Estimates
Periodicity:             Fiscal Year                  6/02          6/03    6/04       6/05         6/06        6/07         6/08        6/09       6/10   6/11   6/12   6/13E       6/14E        6/15E
Income Statement
Revenue                                                  50           22     21          27           37          69          103         421        489    635    804    557          634         676
  - Cost of Goods Sold                                   28           16     13          20           31          57           82         173        154    280    518

Gross Income                                             23            6      8            6           7          12           21         248        336    355    287
  - Selling, General & Admin Expenses                    12            3      5            5           7           9           16         187        224    200    144
          (Research & Dev Costs)

Operating Income                                         11            8       3          12           4           12          14           64       153    182    152
  - Interest Expense                                      0            2       4           3           3            4           8           41        47     73     94
  - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)                      -1           13      -1           1          -1            0          10           26        12     17     52
  - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)                     35          -30     -14         -31         -11          -11         -11          -96       -41    -34    -37

Pretax Income                                           -23           23     14          39           13          19            7          92        134    127     43     59          135         194
  - Income Tax Expense                                    5            3      3          13            2           3            0          27         38     31      3

Income Before XO Items                                  -28           20     11          26           11          16            7          65         96     95     40
   - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax                        0            0      0           0            0           0            0           0          0      0      0
   - Minority Interests                                  -0           -0     -0          -0            0           0            0          28         48     42     22

Diluted EPS Before XO Items

Net Income Adjusted*                                    -28           20     11          26           11          16            7          37         48     53     18      32           55          87
EPS Adjusted                                                                                                                                                             0.42         0.85        1.10
Dividends Per Share                                                                                                                                                      0.12         0.23        0.31
        Payout Ratio %                                               0.0    0.0                                                          16.0       37.2   32.8   82.3   0.28         0.27        0.28

Total Shares Outstanding
Diluted Shares Outstanding

EBITDA                                                   14           10      5          14            5          14           16         102        200    230    208    240          264         304

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.




                                                                            Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV
Periodicity:                                6/02       6/03       6/04        6/05         6/06        6/07         6/08        6/09       6/10    6/11    6/12    6/13E   6/14E   6/15E
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets                   25.8227409 20.8865059 24.7081288 52.8793929 30.8005916 70.1536703 243.640724 304.934938 369.647744 551.237956 424.914674
  + Cash & Near Cash Items                     10          6          4          5          8         15         16         22         21         47         75
  + Short Term Investments                      0          2          1         21          2         13        160         91         71        140         55
  + Accounts & Notes Receivable                 4          2          2          3          4         12         12         80        112        110        123
  + Inventories                                 9          8         12         16          9         17         37         37        102        183        120
  + Other Current Assets                        2          2          7          8          7         13         19         76         64         71         52

Total Long-Term Assets                        66        182        194         204          252         277          441        1'269      1'369   1'817   1'732
  + Long Term Investments                      0          0          0          37           12          12            0            8         16       8     550
         Gross Fixed Assets                   34         60         60          65           81          88           99                                   1'532
         Accumulated Depreciation              4          7          6           8            8           9           11                                     394
  + Net Fixed Assets                          30         53         53          58           73          80           88         872        837    1'298   1'138
  + Other Long Term Assets                    36        129        140         110          167         185          352         389        517      511      44

Total Current Liabilities                      9          5         10          23           33          54           87         346        491     575     464
  + Accounts Payable                           3          2          4           6            9          10           16          90        103     115      82
  + Short Term Borrowings                      2          1          3           4           22          40           65         141        270     320     242
  + Other Short Term Liabilities               4          3          3          13            3           5            6         115        118     140     140

Total Long Term Liabilities                    3         57         51          53           46          25           15         372        335     684     796
  + Long Term Borrowings                       0          0         43          40           32           8            0         228        217     508     616
  + Other Long Term Borrowings                 3         57          9          14           14          17           15         144        118     176     180

Total Liabilities                             12         63         61          76           79          80          101         718        825    1'259   1'260
  + Long Preferred Equity                      0          0          0           0            0           0            0           0          0        0       0
  + Minority Interest                          0          0          0           0            0           0            0         378        413      571     440
  + Share Capital & APIC                      89        136        143         141          160         207          511         366        352      336     305
  + Retained Earnings & Other Equity          -9          4         14          40           43          60           71         111        149      203     151

Total Shareholders Equity                     80        140        157         181          203         267          583         856        914    1'109    896

Total Liabilities & Equity                    92        203        218         257          282         347          684        1'574      1'739   2'368   2'156

Book Value Per Share                                                                                                                                                7.83    8.74    9.83
  Tangible Book Value Per Share




                                                                   Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV
Periodicity:                           6/02   6/03   6/04       6/05         6/06        6/07         6/08        6/09       6/10   6/11   6/12   6/13E   6/14E   6/15E
Cash Flows
Net Income                              -28     20    11           26          11           16           7           37        48    53     18      34      67      91
  + Depreciation & Amortization           3      1     1            1           2            1           2           38        47    49     56
  + Other Non-Cash Adjustments           75    -26    -6          -25         -10          -15          -7           50        26   123    150
  + Changes in Non-Cash Capital           1      8    -7           -6         -10          -21         -31          -40       -92   -86    -25

Cash From Operating Activities          50       3     -0          -3          -7          -18         -29           85        30   138    199
  + Disposal of Fixed Assets                     4      2          10           4            9          14            2         4            0
  + Capital Expenditures                        -9     -5          -9         -19          -10          -9          -91       -52    -42   -56      -65     -62     -57
  + Increase in Investments                    -54     -0         -12         -22           -0        -130          -44       -48          -19
  + Decrease in Investments                      0      0          32           0            0           0            0         0     19
  + Other Investing Activities                  -2     -5           0          -1            0           0            1       -43   -175    -95

Cash From Investing Activities                 -61     -8          21         -37           -0        -125        -132       -138   -198   -170
  + Dividends Paid                               0     -1          -1          -3           -2          -3         -13        -25    -48    -33
  + Change in Short Term Borrowings              0      0           0           0            0           0           0          0      0
  + Increase in Long Term Borrowings            54      2          15          28           27          25          66        175     89     66
  + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings            -4     -4         -18          -6          -15         -15         -69        -27    -63   -180
  + Increase in Capital Stocks                   0      8           0           0            0         281           0
  + Decrease in Capital Stocks                   0      0           0           0            0           0         -22          0     0
  + Other Financing Activities                   1     -0           4          12           27           4         -35        -24   213     81

Cash From Financing Activities                 51      6            1          31          38          292          -71       99    192     -66

Net Changes in Cash                             -7     -3         18          -13          19          139        -118         -9   132     -36

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX)                      -6     -5         -12         -26          -28         -38           -5       -22    96    143

Free Cash Flow To Firm                         -4      -2         -10         -23          -24         -31          24        12    151    230
Free Cash Flow To Equity                       48      -5          -5          -0           -5         -13          -6       131    123     29
Free Cash Flow per Share




                                                     Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV
Periodicity:                          6/02     6/03    6/04       6/05         6/06        6/07         6/08        6/09        6/10    6/11    6/12   6/13E    6/14E    6/15E
Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios
  Price Earnings                                                                                                                                       20.6x    10.3x     8.0x
  EV to EBIT                          15.4x   11.1x   66.8x       16.7x       94.4x        55.8x       48.6x        19.8x       9.6x   11.7x   11.8x
  EV to EBITDA                        12.5x    9.8x   48.5x       15.0x       64.6x        49.9x       42.4x        12.3x       7.3x    9.2x    8.6x
  Price to Sales                                                                                                                                         0.8x     0.7x     0.7x
  Price to Book                                                                                                                                          1.1x     1.0x     0.9x
  Dividend Yield                                                                                                                                        1.3%     2.6%     3.5%

Profitability Ratios
  Gross Margin                        44.6%   29.1%   37.4%      23.7%        17.8%       17.9%        20.4%       59.0%       68.6%   55.9%   35.6%
  EBITDA Margin                       26.8%   43.4%   21.1%      51.7%        14.4%       19.9%        15.5%       24.2%       40.9%   36.3%   25.8%   43.9%    42.5%    45.0%
  Operating Margin                    21.8%   38.5%   15.3%      46.4%         9.9%       17.8%        13.5%       15.1%       31.2%   28.6%   18.9%
  Profit Margin                      -55.9%   90.4%   51.6%      98.2%        29.3%       23.2%         7.1%        8.7%        9.8%    8.4%    2.3%    5.7%     8.7%    12.8%
  Return on Assets                   -14.4%   14.2%    5.3%      11.1%         4.1%        5.1%         1.5%        3.1%        2.9%    2.6%    0.8%
  Return on Equity                   -16.5%   18.7%    7.5%      15.5%         5.7%        6.8%         1.8%        7.0%        9.8%   10.2%    3.7%    7.6%    13.7%    16.7%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios
  Current Ratio                        3.01    3.88    2.54        2.31        0.93         1.29        2.81         0.88       0.75    0.96    0.92
  Quick Ratio                          1.74    1.95    0.66        1.28        0.42         0.74        2.17         0.56       0.42    0.52    0.55
  Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)             3.97    0.81        3.77        1.33         2.99        1.83         1.54       3.23    2.50    1.62
  Tot Debt/Capital                     0.02    0.00    0.22        0.19        0.21         0.15        0.10         0.30       0.35    0.43    0.49
  Tot Debt/Equity                      0.02    0.00    0.29        0.24        0.26         0.18        0.11         0.43       0.53    0.75    0.96

Others
  Asset Turnover                       0.26    0.16    0.10        0.11        0.14         0.22        0.21         0.35       0.29    0.31    0.35
  Accounts Receivable Turnover         6.33    6.01   10.80       10.84       10.76         8.70        8.75         8.42       5.06    5.68    6.84
  Accounts Payable Turnover            6.04    4.76    6.54        4.89        3.38         6.92        7.85         3.15       2.29    3.35    4.79
  Inventory Turnover                   1.66    1.80    1.35        1.47        2.45         4.30        3.13         4.67       2.19    1.94    3.44

  Effective Tax Rate                          14.1%   20.5%      33.0%        14.1%       14.4%         1.2%       29.8%       28.3%   24.7%    7.2%




                                                       Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Peers Comparision
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   INVERSORA JURA-
                                         CRESUD SA-ADR        BRF - BRASIL FOO ARCHER-DANIELS     BUNGE LTD        BRASILAGRO        TYSON FOODS-A        ALICO INC           IRSA SA             COSAN                            GRUPO BIMBO-A
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          B

Latest Fiscal Year:                             06/2012              12/2011          06/2012          12/2012          06/2012             09/2012            09/2012            06/2012               03/2012           09/2012        12/2011
52-Week High                                       13.65                46.75            33.98            80.99            10.30               24.31              45.16                7.05                48.44               1.96         34.22
52-Week High Date                             21.02.2012           18.01.2013       10.05.2012       05.02.2013       24.01.2013          19.02.2013         30.01.2013         01.02.2013            08.02.2013        23.01.2013     04.01.2013
52-Week Low                                          6.69               27.53            24.38            57.10              6.66              13.99              21.06                3.87                28.43               1.42         28.00
52-Week Low Date                              01.06.2012           26.07.2012       15.11.2012       04.06.2012       23.05.2012          06.08.2012         12.04.2012         07.05.2012            24.05.2012        16.05.2012     31.08.2012
Daily Volume                                      28'951              714'800        2'982'517          431'721            6'200           1'668'672              5'117              4'593               407'500            30'000        375'616
  Current Price (2/dd/yy)                           8.68                42.23           32.68            74.20              9.94              23.93              43.62                  6.35              46.56               1.75          33.21
  52-Week High % Change                           -36.4%                -9.7%            -3.8%            -8.4%            -3.5%               -1.6%             -3.4%                -9.9%                -3.9%            -10.7%           -3.0%
  52-Week Low % Change                             29.7%               53.4%            34.0%            29.9%             49.2%              71.0%             107.1%               64.1%                63.8%              23.2%          18.6%
Total Common Shares (M)                                 -              869.5            659.0            146.2              58.4              359.0                7.3               578.7                404.3              368.0        4'703.2
  Market Capitalization                           435.4             36'844.5        21'521.9         10'845.9             580.7             8'484.0              318.2            3'674.6             18'959.9              644.0      156'193.3
Total Debt                                       3'883.2              8'053.5        10'320.0           5'849.0            94.4             2'432.0               57.2             2'641.5              5'014.1             123.2        46'203.0
Preferred Stock                                      -                      -             -               690.0             -                   -                  -                   -                    -                 -               -
Minority Interest                                1'990.8                 39.6           200.0              38.0               -                30.0                -                 362.9                464.6               3.6               -
Cash and Equivalents                               586.6              2'892.9         1'729.0             571.0            67.5             1'071.0                2.3               257.5              1'616.2               4.9         3'966.0
   Enterprise Value                                       -         43'798.7        28'054.9         16'161.9             579.7             9'983.0              354.5            6'440.1             32'028.1              817.2      196'774.1
                                                                                                                                                          Valuation
Total Revenue                      LFY           3'457.8             25'706.2        89'038.0         60'991.0            146.2            33'278.0              127.2             1'702.1             24'096.9             404.5       133'712.0
                                  LTM            3'457.8             27'470.8        90'559.0         62'869.0            175.0            33'351.0              122.5             1'918.8             27'348.9             501.5       169'472.6
                                 CY+1            2'729.0             28'269.1        89'986.3         66'618.4            182.5            34'468.1              124.5             1'619.3             30'880.2                  -      173'264.1
                                 CY+2            3'109.0             31'276.3        89'123.8         68'069.3            193.0            35'269.4              134.5             1'847.0             35'485.1                  -      182'412.0
EV/Total Revenue                   LFY               2.2x                 1.5x            0.3x              0.3x            4.0x                 0.2x              2.1x                3.1x                 1.2x              1.9x            1.4x
                                  LTM                2.2x                 1.4x            0.3x              0.3x            3.3x                 0.2x              2.1x                2.8x                 1.1x              1.5x            1.1x
                                 CY+1                2.8x                 1.6x                -             0.2x            3.9x                 0.3x                  -                   -                0.9x                  -           1.1x
                                 CY+2                2.3x                 1.4x                -             0.2x            3.9x                 0.3x                  -                   -                0.8x                  -           1.1x
EBITDA                             LFY             893.3              2'878.5         2'890.0          1'580.0              4.3             1'747.0               22.6             1'003.3              5'338.7              20.3        15'376.0
                                  LTM              981.7              2'213.3         2'827.0          1'530.0             22.3             1'899.0                   -            1'057.3              2'707.3              25.5        14'572.9
                                 CY+1            1'198.3              2'539.8         3'339.0          2'264.6             40.7             1'828.8                   -            1'033.0              2'892.8             129.0        14'442.0
                                 CY+2            1'320.9              3'839.5         3'911.8          2'355.7             48.6             1'961.9                   -            1'067.0              3'740.1                  -       17'413.4
EV/EBITDA                          LFY               8.6x                13.0x            8.5x            10.1x           136.5x                 4.8x             11.6x                5.3x                 5.6x             37.9x           12.4x
                                  LTM                7.8x                16.9x            8.7x            10.4x            26.1x                 4.4x                  -               5.0x                11.1x             30.1x           13.1x
                                 CY+1                6.3x                17.3x                -             7.2x           17.3x                 5.2x                  -                   -                9.3x                  -          13.5x
                                 CY+2                5.5x                11.4x                -             6.9x           15.4x                 4.5x                  -                   -                7.3x                  -          11.0x
EPS                                LFY                   -                1.57            2.29             4.54            -0.32                1.90               1.87                0.48                 6.34              0.08                -
                                  LTM                    -                0.43            2.38             4.27            -0.15                1.94               1.79                0.64                 1.86             -0.03            0.61
                                 CY+1               2.12                 0.78            2.53             7.39             0.25                2.10               2.23                0.32                 1.76                  -           0.86
                                 CY+2               4.23                 1.99            3.02             8.09             0.08                2.38               1.72                    -                2.46                  -           1.31
P/E                                LFY                   -               98.7x           13.7x            17.4x                 -              12.3x              24.4x                9.9x                25.0x                  -          54.6x
                                  LTM                    -               98.8x           13.7x            17.4x                 -              12.3x              24.4x               13.4x                25.3x                  -               -
                                 CY+1               20.6x                54.3x           12.9x            10.0x            40.6x               11.4x              19.6x               19.8x                26.4x                  -          38.6x
                                 CY+2               10.3x                21.2x           10.8x              9.2x          132.5x               10.0x              25.4x                    -               18.9x                  -          25.4x
Revenue Growth                  1 Year             36.1%                13.3%           10.4%              3.8%           83.8%                 3.1%             29.0%               11.2%                33.4%                   -         14.1%
                                5 Year                   -              38.0%            9.3%              5.6%          595.7%                 5.5%              3.2%               23.1%                83.9%                   -         19.9%
EBITDA Growth                   1 Year             (3.1%)               24.0%         (19.0%)            (7.1%)           46.2%               (2.5%)                   -             25.8%               159.8%                   -          1.7%
                                5 Year             83.9%                52.9%            1.0%              0.5%                 -               9.1%             14.3%               29.7%                41.9%                   -         14.6%
EBITDA Margin                     LTM              28.4%                 8.1%            3.1%              2.4%           12.8%                 5.7%                   -             55.1%                 9.9%              5.1%            8.6%
                                 CY+1              43.9%                 9.0%            3.7%              3.4%           22.3%                 5.3%                   -             63.8%                 9.4%                   -          8.3%
                                 CY+2              42.5%                12.3%            4.4%              3.5%           25.2%                 5.6%                   -             57.8%                10.5%                   -          9.5%
                                                                                                                                                 Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Total Debt / Equity %                            188.2%                57.2%            57.4%            52.0%            16.9%               40.5%              51.7%              113.1%                54.8%             24.3%           91.6%     FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Total Debt / Capital %                            48.9%                36.3%            36.2%            34.1%            14.4%               28.7%              34.1%               49.5%                34.3%             19.4%           47.8%     FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Total Debt / EBITDA                               3.956x               4.121x           3.375x           3.823x           3.555x              1.278x                  -              2.511x               4.307x            6.872x          2.873x    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Net Debt / EBITDA                                 3.358x               3.122x           2.311x           3.450x          -0.045x              0.777x                  -              2.245x               3.449x            6.659x          2.579x    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
EBITDA / Int. Expense                             2.210x               6.056x           6.451x           4.984x           0.573x              4.907x            10.510x              3.315x               9.844x                 -          7.446x    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
                                                                                                                                                        Credit Ratings
S&P LT Credit Rating                                    -               BBB-            A *-              BBB-                  -               BBB                      -              B-                   BB                  -           BBB      FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
S&P LT Credit Rating Date                                -         04.04.2012       19.10.2012       10.06.2010                  -        11.02.2013                      -     01.11.2012            21.10.2010                  -    12.07.2011      FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Moody's LT Credit Rating                                -               Baa3               A2                 -                 -              Baa3                      -               -                   WR                  -          Baa2      FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date                            -         31.05.2012       12.11.2004                 -                 -        07.06.2012                      -               -           15.05.2011                  -    09.09.2011      FALSE    FALSE    FALSE



                                                                                                                              Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

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Financial analysis cresud sacif y a is an argentine agricultural company, with a growing presence in latin american countries, engaged in a range of activities including crop production, cattle raising and milk production

  • 1. 20.02.2013 Company Analysis - Overview Cresud SACIF y A is an Argentine agricultural company, with a growing presence in Ticker: CRESY US Cresud SACIF y A Benchmark: Latin American countries, engaged in a range of activities including crop production, Currency: NASDAQ GS: CRESY, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) cattle raising and milk production. The Company's business model, rolled out in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, focuses on the acquisition, development and Sector: Financials Industry: Real Estate Management & Devel Year: exploitation of agricultural properties. Telephone 54-11-4323-7449 Revenue (M) 804 Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M) Website www.cresud.com.ar No of Employees #N/A N/A Real Estate 348 Worlwide 57 Address Moreno, 877, 23 Floor Buenos Aires, C1091AAQ Argentina Farm 57 Share Price Performance in USD Dairy Farm Price 8.68 1M Return -4.9% Cattle Ranching 52 Week High 12.78 6M Return 9.2% Grains 52 Week Low 6.30 52 Wk Return -31.0% 52 Wk Beta 1.11 YTD Return 4.3% Credit Ratings Bloomberg - S&P - Date - Outlook - 14% Moody's - Date - Outlook - Fitch - Date - Outlook NEG Valuation Ratios 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13E 6/14E 6/15E P/E - - - - 20.6x 10.3x 8.0x EV/EBIT 19.8x 9.6x 11.7x 11.8x - - - EV/EBITDA 12.3x 7.3x 9.2x 8.6x - - - P/S - - - - 0.8x 0.7x 0.7x P/B - - - - 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x Div Yield - - - - 1.3% 2.6% 3.5% 86% 100% Profitability Ratios % 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13E 6/14E 6/15E Gross Margin 59.0 68.6 55.9 35.6 - - - EBITDA Margin 24.2 40.9 36.3 25.8 43.9 42.5 45.0 Operating Margin 15.1 31.2 28.6 18.9 - - - Real Estate Farm Profit Margin 8.7 9.8 8.4 2.3 5.7 8.7 12.8 Worlwide Return on Assets 3.1 2.9 2.6 0.8 - - - Return on Equity 7.0 9.8 10.2 3.7 7.6 13.7 16.7 Leverage and Coverage Ratios 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 Current Ratio 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 Current Capitalization in USD Quick Ratio 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 Common Shares Outstanding (M) #N/A Field Not Applicable EBIT/Interest 1.5 3.2 2.5 1.6 Market Capitalization (M) 435.4 Tot Debt/Capital 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 Cash and ST Investments (M) 129.7 Tot Debt/Equity 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 Total Debt (M) 858.4 Eff Tax Rate % 29.8 28.3 24.7 7.2 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 440.1 Enterprise Value (M) 1604.1 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 2. Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings Cresud SACIF y A Target price in USD Broker Recommendation Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price Price Brokers' Target Price 25 18 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16 33% 33% 20 80% 14 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 0% 12 60% 15 10 8 40% 10 6 67% 67% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 4 20% 5 2 0 0% 0 Raymond HSBC Santander Dimensions James Grupo févr.12 mars.12 avr.12 mai.12 juin.12 juil.12 août.12 sept.12 oct.12 nov.12 déc.12 janv.13 EVA Buy Hold Sell Price Target Price Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date 31-Jan-13 67% 0% 33% 20-Feb-13 8.68 13.45 Raymond James PEDRO J RICHARDS outperform 17.00 19-Feb-13 31-Dec-12 50% 50% 0% 19-Feb-13 8.81 13.45 Grupo Santander WALTER CHIARVESIO underperform 9.90 7-Jan-13 30-Nov-12 67% 33% 0% 18-Feb-13 8.58 13.45 HSBC PEDRO HERRERA overweight 17.00 17-Sep-12 31-Oct-12 50% 50% 0% 15-Feb-13 8.58 13.45 EVA Dimensions TEAM COVERAGE hold 18-Nov-11 28-Sep-12 50% 50% 0% 14-Feb-13 8.71 13.45 31-Aug-12 50% 50% 0% 13-Feb-13 8.65 13.45 31-Jul-12 50% 50% 0% 12-Feb-13 8.87 13.45 29-Jun-12 50% 50% 0% 11-Feb-13 9.03 13.45 31-May-12 50% 50% 0% 8-Feb-13 9.10 13.45 30-Apr-12 50% 50% 0% 7-Feb-13 9.30 13.45 30-Mar-12 50% 50% 0% 6-Feb-13 9.63 13.45 29-Feb-12 50% 50% 0% 5-Feb-13 9.77 13.45 4-Feb-13 9.50 13.45 1-Feb-13 9.63 13.45 31-Jan-13 9.55 13.45 30-Jan-13 9.65 13.45 29-Jan-13 9.02 9.90 28-Jan-13 8.93 9.90 25-Jan-13 9.02 9.90 24-Jan-13 9.09 9.90 23-Jan-13 9.10 9.90 22-Jan-13 9.52 9.90 21-Jan-13 9.13 9.90 18-Jan-13 9.13 9.90 17-Jan-13 8.75 9.90 16-Jan-13 8.58 9.90 15-Jan-13 8.69 9.90 14-Jan-13 8.79 9.90 11-Jan-13 8.85 9.90 10-Jan-13 8.80 9.90 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 3. 20.02.2013 Cresud SACIF y A Company Analysis - Ownership Ownership Type Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution Geographic Ownership 1% Shares Outstanding (M) #N/A Field Not Applicable Others 100.00% 0% 0% 0% 0% Float 0.00% 0% 0% Short Interest (M) 0.1 0.00% Short Interest as % of Float 0.00% Days to Cover Shorts 1.35 0.00% Institutional Ownership 0.00% Retail Ownership 0.00% Insider Ownership Others 0.00% Institutional Ownership Distribution Others 100.00% 100% 0.00% 0.00% Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership 0.00% Pricing data is in USD Others 0.00% Others Others Top 20 Owners: TOP 20 ALL Institutional Ownership Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country MACQUARIE GROUP LTD 1'879'565 0 16'314'624 3.75% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG AUSTRALIA 0% 0% 0% GLOBAL THEMATIC PART 1'591'495 0 13'814'177 3.17% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES 0% TRADEWINDS GLOBAL IN 1'572'588 -205'935 13'650'064 3.14% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES DWS INVESTMENT S A 1'371'605 0 11'905'531 2.73% 28.12.2012 MF-AGG LUXEMBOURG D E SHAW & COMPANY I 1'363'313 -28'003 11'833'557 2.72% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES PARAMETRIC PORTFOLIO 1'040'365 -3'607 9'030'368 2.07% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES HORIZON KINETICS 1'025'579 -19'822 8'902'026 2.04% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES DEUTSCHE BANK AG 983'241 11'664 8'534'532 1.96% 31.12.2012 13F GERMANY VINIK ASSET MANAGEME 779'600 376'200 6'766'928 1.55% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C 743'734 -20'700 6'455'611 1.48% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES 100% VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C 740'968 -353 6'431'602 1.48% 15.02.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES ODYSSEY REINS CO 723'012 -112'996 6'275'744 1.44% 30.09.2012 Sch-D UNITED STATES FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HO 723'012 0 6'275'744 1.44% 31.12.2012 13F CANADA CREDIT SUISSE AG 605'835 22'086 5'258'648 1.21% 31.12.2012 13F SWITZERLAND Others Others RUANE CUNNIFF & GOLD 605'247 0 5'253'544 1.21% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES WARBURG INVEST LUXEM 577'000 0 5'008'360 1.15% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG LUXEMBOURG EATON VANCE MANAGEME 423'761 0 3'678'245 0.84% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES NUVEEN ASSET MANAGEM 223'072 -10'491 1'936'265 0.44% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES RENAISSANCE TECHNOLO 204'568 -1'854 1'775'650 0.41% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES BANK OF NEW YORK MEL 195'617 11'630 1'697'956 0.39% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES Top 5 Insiders: Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 4. Company Analysis - Financials I/IV Cresud SACIF y A Financial information is in USD (M) Equivalent Estimates Periodicity: Fiscal Year 6/02 6/03 6/04 6/05 6/06 6/07 6/08 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13E 6/14E 6/15E Income Statement Revenue 50 22 21 27 37 69 103 421 489 635 804 557 634 676 - Cost of Goods Sold 28 16 13 20 31 57 82 173 154 280 518 Gross Income 23 6 8 6 7 12 21 248 336 355 287 - Selling, General & Admin Expenses 12 3 5 5 7 9 16 187 224 200 144 (Research & Dev Costs) Operating Income 11 8 3 12 4 12 14 64 153 182 152 - Interest Expense 0 2 4 3 3 4 8 41 47 73 94 - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) -1 13 -1 1 -1 0 10 26 12 17 52 - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) 35 -30 -14 -31 -11 -11 -11 -96 -41 -34 -37 Pretax Income -23 23 14 39 13 19 7 92 134 127 43 59 135 194 - Income Tax Expense 5 3 3 13 2 3 0 27 38 31 3 Income Before XO Items -28 20 11 26 11 16 7 65 96 95 40 - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - Minority Interests -0 -0 -0 -0 0 0 0 28 48 42 22 Diluted EPS Before XO Items Net Income Adjusted* -28 20 11 26 11 16 7 37 48 53 18 32 55 87 EPS Adjusted 0.42 0.85 1.10 Dividends Per Share 0.12 0.23 0.31 Payout Ratio % 0.0 0.0 16.0 37.2 32.8 82.3 0.28 0.27 0.28 Total Shares Outstanding Diluted Shares Outstanding EBITDA 14 10 5 14 5 14 16 102 200 230 208 240 264 304 *Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges. Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 5. Company Analysis - Financials II/IV Periodicity: 6/02 6/03 6/04 6/05 6/06 6/07 6/08 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13E 6/14E 6/15E Balance Sheet Total Current Assets 25.8227409 20.8865059 24.7081288 52.8793929 30.8005916 70.1536703 243.640724 304.934938 369.647744 551.237956 424.914674 + Cash & Near Cash Items 10 6 4 5 8 15 16 22 21 47 75 + Short Term Investments 0 2 1 21 2 13 160 91 71 140 55 + Accounts & Notes Receivable 4 2 2 3 4 12 12 80 112 110 123 + Inventories 9 8 12 16 9 17 37 37 102 183 120 + Other Current Assets 2 2 7 8 7 13 19 76 64 71 52 Total Long-Term Assets 66 182 194 204 252 277 441 1'269 1'369 1'817 1'732 + Long Term Investments 0 0 0 37 12 12 0 8 16 8 550 Gross Fixed Assets 34 60 60 65 81 88 99 1'532 Accumulated Depreciation 4 7 6 8 8 9 11 394 + Net Fixed Assets 30 53 53 58 73 80 88 872 837 1'298 1'138 + Other Long Term Assets 36 129 140 110 167 185 352 389 517 511 44 Total Current Liabilities 9 5 10 23 33 54 87 346 491 575 464 + Accounts Payable 3 2 4 6 9 10 16 90 103 115 82 + Short Term Borrowings 2 1 3 4 22 40 65 141 270 320 242 + Other Short Term Liabilities 4 3 3 13 3 5 6 115 118 140 140 Total Long Term Liabilities 3 57 51 53 46 25 15 372 335 684 796 + Long Term Borrowings 0 0 43 40 32 8 0 228 217 508 616 + Other Long Term Borrowings 3 57 9 14 14 17 15 144 118 176 180 Total Liabilities 12 63 61 76 79 80 101 718 825 1'259 1'260 + Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 378 413 571 440 + Share Capital & APIC 89 136 143 141 160 207 511 366 352 336 305 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity -9 4 14 40 43 60 71 111 149 203 151 Total Shareholders Equity 80 140 157 181 203 267 583 856 914 1'109 896 Total Liabilities & Equity 92 203 218 257 282 347 684 1'574 1'739 2'368 2'156 Book Value Per Share 7.83 8.74 9.83 Tangible Book Value Per Share Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 6. Company Analysis - Financials III/IV Periodicity: 6/02 6/03 6/04 6/05 6/06 6/07 6/08 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13E 6/14E 6/15E Cash Flows Net Income -28 20 11 26 11 16 7 37 48 53 18 34 67 91 + Depreciation & Amortization 3 1 1 1 2 1 2 38 47 49 56 + Other Non-Cash Adjustments 75 -26 -6 -25 -10 -15 -7 50 26 123 150 + Changes in Non-Cash Capital 1 8 -7 -6 -10 -21 -31 -40 -92 -86 -25 Cash From Operating Activities 50 3 -0 -3 -7 -18 -29 85 30 138 199 + Disposal of Fixed Assets 4 2 10 4 9 14 2 4 0 + Capital Expenditures -9 -5 -9 -19 -10 -9 -91 -52 -42 -56 -65 -62 -57 + Increase in Investments -54 -0 -12 -22 -0 -130 -44 -48 -19 + Decrease in Investments 0 0 32 0 0 0 0 0 19 + Other Investing Activities -2 -5 0 -1 0 0 1 -43 -175 -95 Cash From Investing Activities -61 -8 21 -37 -0 -125 -132 -138 -198 -170 + Dividends Paid 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -3 -13 -25 -48 -33 + Change in Short Term Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Increase in Long Term Borrowings 54 2 15 28 27 25 66 175 89 66 + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -4 -4 -18 -6 -15 -15 -69 -27 -63 -180 + Increase in Capital Stocks 0 8 0 0 0 281 0 + Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 -22 0 0 + Other Financing Activities 1 -0 4 12 27 4 -35 -24 213 81 Cash From Financing Activities 51 6 1 31 38 292 -71 99 192 -66 Net Changes in Cash -7 -3 18 -13 19 139 -118 -9 132 -36 Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) -6 -5 -12 -26 -28 -38 -5 -22 96 143 Free Cash Flow To Firm -4 -2 -10 -23 -24 -31 24 12 151 230 Free Cash Flow To Equity 48 -5 -5 -0 -5 -13 -6 131 123 29 Free Cash Flow per Share Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 7. Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV Periodicity: 6/02 6/03 6/04 6/05 6/06 6/07 6/08 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13E 6/14E 6/15E Ratio Analysis Valuation Ratios Price Earnings 20.6x 10.3x 8.0x EV to EBIT 15.4x 11.1x 66.8x 16.7x 94.4x 55.8x 48.6x 19.8x 9.6x 11.7x 11.8x EV to EBITDA 12.5x 9.8x 48.5x 15.0x 64.6x 49.9x 42.4x 12.3x 7.3x 9.2x 8.6x Price to Sales 0.8x 0.7x 0.7x Price to Book 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x Dividend Yield 1.3% 2.6% 3.5% Profitability Ratios Gross Margin 44.6% 29.1% 37.4% 23.7% 17.8% 17.9% 20.4% 59.0% 68.6% 55.9% 35.6% EBITDA Margin 26.8% 43.4% 21.1% 51.7% 14.4% 19.9% 15.5% 24.2% 40.9% 36.3% 25.8% 43.9% 42.5% 45.0% Operating Margin 21.8% 38.5% 15.3% 46.4% 9.9% 17.8% 13.5% 15.1% 31.2% 28.6% 18.9% Profit Margin -55.9% 90.4% 51.6% 98.2% 29.3% 23.2% 7.1% 8.7% 9.8% 8.4% 2.3% 5.7% 8.7% 12.8% Return on Assets -14.4% 14.2% 5.3% 11.1% 4.1% 5.1% 1.5% 3.1% 2.9% 2.6% 0.8% Return on Equity -16.5% 18.7% 7.5% 15.5% 5.7% 6.8% 1.8% 7.0% 9.8% 10.2% 3.7% 7.6% 13.7% 16.7% Leverage & Coverage Ratios Current Ratio 3.01 3.88 2.54 2.31 0.93 1.29 2.81 0.88 0.75 0.96 0.92 Quick Ratio 1.74 1.95 0.66 1.28 0.42 0.74 2.17 0.56 0.42 0.52 0.55 Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 3.97 0.81 3.77 1.33 2.99 1.83 1.54 3.23 2.50 1.62 Tot Debt/Capital 0.02 0.00 0.22 0.19 0.21 0.15 0.10 0.30 0.35 0.43 0.49 Tot Debt/Equity 0.02 0.00 0.29 0.24 0.26 0.18 0.11 0.43 0.53 0.75 0.96 Others Asset Turnover 0.26 0.16 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.22 0.21 0.35 0.29 0.31 0.35 Accounts Receivable Turnover 6.33 6.01 10.80 10.84 10.76 8.70 8.75 8.42 5.06 5.68 6.84 Accounts Payable Turnover 6.04 4.76 6.54 4.89 3.38 6.92 7.85 3.15 2.29 3.35 4.79 Inventory Turnover 1.66 1.80 1.35 1.47 2.45 4.30 3.13 4.67 2.19 1.94 3.44 Effective Tax Rate 14.1% 20.5% 33.0% 14.1% 14.4% 1.2% 29.8% 28.3% 24.7% 7.2% Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 8. Company Analysis - Peers Comparision INVERSORA JURA- CRESUD SA-ADR BRF - BRASIL FOO ARCHER-DANIELS BUNGE LTD BRASILAGRO TYSON FOODS-A ALICO INC IRSA SA COSAN GRUPO BIMBO-A B Latest Fiscal Year: 06/2012 12/2011 06/2012 12/2012 06/2012 09/2012 09/2012 06/2012 03/2012 09/2012 12/2011 52-Week High 13.65 46.75 33.98 80.99 10.30 24.31 45.16 7.05 48.44 1.96 34.22 52-Week High Date 21.02.2012 18.01.2013 10.05.2012 05.02.2013 24.01.2013 19.02.2013 30.01.2013 01.02.2013 08.02.2013 23.01.2013 04.01.2013 52-Week Low 6.69 27.53 24.38 57.10 6.66 13.99 21.06 3.87 28.43 1.42 28.00 52-Week Low Date 01.06.2012 26.07.2012 15.11.2012 04.06.2012 23.05.2012 06.08.2012 12.04.2012 07.05.2012 24.05.2012 16.05.2012 31.08.2012 Daily Volume 28'951 714'800 2'982'517 431'721 6'200 1'668'672 5'117 4'593 407'500 30'000 375'616 Current Price (2/dd/yy) 8.68 42.23 32.68 74.20 9.94 23.93 43.62 6.35 46.56 1.75 33.21 52-Week High % Change -36.4% -9.7% -3.8% -8.4% -3.5% -1.6% -3.4% -9.9% -3.9% -10.7% -3.0% 52-Week Low % Change 29.7% 53.4% 34.0% 29.9% 49.2% 71.0% 107.1% 64.1% 63.8% 23.2% 18.6% Total Common Shares (M) - 869.5 659.0 146.2 58.4 359.0 7.3 578.7 404.3 368.0 4'703.2 Market Capitalization 435.4 36'844.5 21'521.9 10'845.9 580.7 8'484.0 318.2 3'674.6 18'959.9 644.0 156'193.3 Total Debt 3'883.2 8'053.5 10'320.0 5'849.0 94.4 2'432.0 57.2 2'641.5 5'014.1 123.2 46'203.0 Preferred Stock - - - 690.0 - - - - - - - Minority Interest 1'990.8 39.6 200.0 38.0 - 30.0 - 362.9 464.6 3.6 - Cash and Equivalents 586.6 2'892.9 1'729.0 571.0 67.5 1'071.0 2.3 257.5 1'616.2 4.9 3'966.0 Enterprise Value - 43'798.7 28'054.9 16'161.9 579.7 9'983.0 354.5 6'440.1 32'028.1 817.2 196'774.1 Valuation Total Revenue LFY 3'457.8 25'706.2 89'038.0 60'991.0 146.2 33'278.0 127.2 1'702.1 24'096.9 404.5 133'712.0 LTM 3'457.8 27'470.8 90'559.0 62'869.0 175.0 33'351.0 122.5 1'918.8 27'348.9 501.5 169'472.6 CY+1 2'729.0 28'269.1 89'986.3 66'618.4 182.5 34'468.1 124.5 1'619.3 30'880.2 - 173'264.1 CY+2 3'109.0 31'276.3 89'123.8 68'069.3 193.0 35'269.4 134.5 1'847.0 35'485.1 - 182'412.0 EV/Total Revenue LFY 2.2x 1.5x 0.3x 0.3x 4.0x 0.2x 2.1x 3.1x 1.2x 1.9x 1.4x LTM 2.2x 1.4x 0.3x 0.3x 3.3x 0.2x 2.1x 2.8x 1.1x 1.5x 1.1x CY+1 2.8x 1.6x - 0.2x 3.9x 0.3x - - 0.9x - 1.1x CY+2 2.3x 1.4x - 0.2x 3.9x 0.3x - - 0.8x - 1.1x EBITDA LFY 893.3 2'878.5 2'890.0 1'580.0 4.3 1'747.0 22.6 1'003.3 5'338.7 20.3 15'376.0 LTM 981.7 2'213.3 2'827.0 1'530.0 22.3 1'899.0 - 1'057.3 2'707.3 25.5 14'572.9 CY+1 1'198.3 2'539.8 3'339.0 2'264.6 40.7 1'828.8 - 1'033.0 2'892.8 129.0 14'442.0 CY+2 1'320.9 3'839.5 3'911.8 2'355.7 48.6 1'961.9 - 1'067.0 3'740.1 - 17'413.4 EV/EBITDA LFY 8.6x 13.0x 8.5x 10.1x 136.5x 4.8x 11.6x 5.3x 5.6x 37.9x 12.4x LTM 7.8x 16.9x 8.7x 10.4x 26.1x 4.4x - 5.0x 11.1x 30.1x 13.1x CY+1 6.3x 17.3x - 7.2x 17.3x 5.2x - - 9.3x - 13.5x CY+2 5.5x 11.4x - 6.9x 15.4x 4.5x - - 7.3x - 11.0x EPS LFY - 1.57 2.29 4.54 -0.32 1.90 1.87 0.48 6.34 0.08 - LTM - 0.43 2.38 4.27 -0.15 1.94 1.79 0.64 1.86 -0.03 0.61 CY+1 2.12 0.78 2.53 7.39 0.25 2.10 2.23 0.32 1.76 - 0.86 CY+2 4.23 1.99 3.02 8.09 0.08 2.38 1.72 - 2.46 - 1.31 P/E LFY - 98.7x 13.7x 17.4x - 12.3x 24.4x 9.9x 25.0x - 54.6x LTM - 98.8x 13.7x 17.4x - 12.3x 24.4x 13.4x 25.3x - - CY+1 20.6x 54.3x 12.9x 10.0x 40.6x 11.4x 19.6x 19.8x 26.4x - 38.6x CY+2 10.3x 21.2x 10.8x 9.2x 132.5x 10.0x 25.4x - 18.9x - 25.4x Revenue Growth 1 Year 36.1% 13.3% 10.4% 3.8% 83.8% 3.1% 29.0% 11.2% 33.4% - 14.1% 5 Year - 38.0% 9.3% 5.6% 595.7% 5.5% 3.2% 23.1% 83.9% - 19.9% EBITDA Growth 1 Year (3.1%) 24.0% (19.0%) (7.1%) 46.2% (2.5%) - 25.8% 159.8% - 1.7% 5 Year 83.9% 52.9% 1.0% 0.5% - 9.1% 14.3% 29.7% 41.9% - 14.6% EBITDA Margin LTM 28.4% 8.1% 3.1% 2.4% 12.8% 5.7% - 55.1% 9.9% 5.1% 8.6% CY+1 43.9% 9.0% 3.7% 3.4% 22.3% 5.3% - 63.8% 9.4% - 8.3% CY+2 42.5% 12.3% 4.4% 3.5% 25.2% 5.6% - 57.8% 10.5% - 9.5% Leverage/Coverage Ratios Total Debt / Equity % 188.2% 57.2% 57.4% 52.0% 16.9% 40.5% 51.7% 113.1% 54.8% 24.3% 91.6% FALSE FALSE FALSE Total Debt / Capital % 48.9% 36.3% 36.2% 34.1% 14.4% 28.7% 34.1% 49.5% 34.3% 19.4% 47.8% FALSE FALSE FALSE Total Debt / EBITDA 3.956x 4.121x 3.375x 3.823x 3.555x 1.278x - 2.511x 4.307x 6.872x 2.873x FALSE FALSE FALSE Net Debt / EBITDA 3.358x 3.122x 2.311x 3.450x -0.045x 0.777x - 2.245x 3.449x 6.659x 2.579x FALSE FALSE FALSE EBITDA / Int. Expense 2.210x 6.056x 6.451x 4.984x 0.573x 4.907x 10.510x 3.315x 9.844x - 7.446x FALSE FALSE FALSE Credit Ratings S&P LT Credit Rating - BBB- A *- BBB- - BBB - B- BB - BBB FALSE FALSE FALSE S&P LT Credit Rating Date - 04.04.2012 19.10.2012 10.06.2010 - 11.02.2013 - 01.11.2012 21.10.2010 - 12.07.2011 FALSE FALSE FALSE Moody's LT Credit Rating - Baa3 A2 - - Baa3 - - WR - Baa2 FALSE FALSE FALSE Moody's LT Credit Rating Date - 31.05.2012 12.11.2004 - - 07.06.2012 - - 15.05.2011 - 09.09.2011 FALSE FALSE FALSE Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |