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04.03.2013



                                                                                          Company Analysis - Overview
Ticker:                    HLF UN              Herbalife Ltd                                                Benchmark:                                  Herbalife Ltd. is a network marketing company that sells weight management,
                                               New York: HLF, Currency: USD                                 S&P 500 INDEX (SPX)                         nutritional supplement and personal care products. The Company sells its products
Currency:
                                                                                                                                                        globally through a network of independent distributors. Herbalife also sells literature
                                                                                                                                                        and promotional materials.
Sector: Consumer Staples          Industry: Personal Products                                                  Year:
Telephone         1-213-745-0500                      Revenue (M)                              4'072        Business Segments in USD                            Sales (M)    Geographic Segments in USD                                   Sales (M)
Website           www.herbalife.com                   No of Employees                          6'200        Weight Management                                           1    Asia Pacific                                                     1140
Address           Ugland House, South Church St PO Box 309GT Grand Cayman, 90015 Cayman Islands             Targeted Nutrition                                               North America                                                      841
Share Price Performance in USD                                                                              Literature, promotional and other(2)                             South America and Southeast Asia(4)                                689
Price                               40.10             1M Return                               13.7%         Energy and Fitness                                               EMEA                                                               628
52 Week High                        71.10             6M Return                              -18.2%         Outer Nutrition                                                  Mexico & Central America                                           496
52 Week Low                         24.07             52 Wk Return                           -38.7%                                                                          Greater China                                                      279
52 Wk Beta                           1.13             YTD Return                              22.6%
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg                   -                                                                                                                                                                            7%
S&P                        NR          Date                25.03.2011              Outlook              -
Moody's                    WR          Date                07.07.2005              Outlook              -                                                                                    12%                             28%
Fitch                       -          Date                -                       Outlook              -
Valuation Ratios
                         12/09        12/10       12/11         12/12    12/13E        12/14E     12/15E
P/E                      12.4x        14.3x       15.6x           8.1x      8.6x          7.4x         -                                                                                 15%
EV/EBIT                    8.6x       10.4x       10.5x           5.6x         -             -         -
EV/EBITDA                  7.1x         8.8x        9.3x          5.0x      5.4x          4.8x         -
P/S                        1.1x         1.5x        1.8x          0.9x      0.9x          0.8x         -
P/B                        6.8x         8.3x      10.7x           8.4x      6.6x          3.9x         -                                                                                                                    21%
Div Yield                 2.0%         1.3%        1.4%          3.6%      3.3%          3.6%          -                                                                                           17%
                                                                                                                                       100%
Profitability Ratios %
                       12/09          12/10       12/11         12/12    12/13E        12/14E     12/15E
Gross Margin            78.8           79.6        80.3          80.0       80.0         80.2          -                                                                                         Asia Pacific
EBITDA Margin           15.4           16.7        18.4          18.1       17.2         17.5          -                                                                                         North America
Operating Margin        12.7           14.2        16.3          16.2       15.6         15.8          -                                                                                         South America and Southeast Asia(4)
                                                                                                                                   Weight Management
Profit Margin             8.7          10.6        11.9          11.7       10.8         11.0          -                                                                                         EMEA
Return on Assets        17.9           24.4        30.8          30.3       49.1         70.2          -
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mexico & Central America
Return on Equity        67.7           68.6        78.8          97.3      -29.9         64.3          -
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Greater China
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
                       12/09          12/10       12/11         12/12
Current Ratio             1.2           1.3         1.4           1.3                                       Current Capitalization in USD
Quick Ratio               0.5           0.6         0.6           0.6                                       Common Shares Outstanding (M)                                                                               106.9
EBIT/Interest           58.0           40.1        57.0          39.5                                       Market Capitalization (M)                                                                                  4133.8
Tot Debt/Capital          0.4           0.3         0.3           0.5                                       Cash and ST Investments (M)                                                                                 333.5
Tot Debt/Equity           0.7           0.4         0.4           1.2                                       Total Debt (M)                                                                                              487.6
Eff Tax Rate %          30.1           23.6        26.3          26.7                                       Preferred Equity (M)                                                                                          0.0
                                                                                                            LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M)                                                                     0.0
                                                                                                            Investments (M)                                                                                               0.0
                                                                                                            Enterprise Value (M)                                                                                       4287.9



                                                                                   Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
Herbalife Ltd
Target price in USD
Broker Recommendation




                                                             Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price




                                                                                                                                                                  Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Brokers' Target Price
                                                                                                                                                             90           90
                        100%      0%        0%       0%        0%        0%         0%        0%       0%         0%           0%         0%       0%
                                  8%        8%                                                                                11%
                                                                                                                                                             80           80

                        80%                                                                                                              36%      36%        70           70
                                                                                                                                                                          60
                                                                                                                                                             60
                        60%                                                                                                                                               50
                                                                                                                                                             50
                                                    100%      100%      100%       100%      100%     100%       100%                                                     40
                                  92%       92%                                                                               89%                            40
                        40%                                                                                                                                               30
                                                                                                                                         64%      64%
                                                                                                                                                             30
                                                                                                                                                                          20
                                                                                                                                                             20           10
                        20%
                                                                                                                                                             10             0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Montgomery
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Genuity Corp




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Barclays




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Humphrey
                                                                                                                                                                                    S&P Capital IQ




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Makor Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                     D.A. Davidson




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dimensions




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Research Corp
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Wedbush




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Robinson
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                SunTrust
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Canaccord




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Scott LLC
                         0%                                                                                                                                  0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Janney




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              EVA




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Argus
                                                                                                                                                                                                         & Co
                                mars.12    avr.12   mai.12   juin.12    juil.12   août.12   sept.12   oct.12    nov.12       déc.12    janv.13   févr.13
                                                                       Buy        Hold        Sell      Price          Target Price

                               Date                    Buy              Hold                Sell                   Date               Price Target Price                  Broker                                               Analyst                               Recommendation                      Target                  Date
                               28-Feb-13              64%                36%                0%                    4-Mar-13             40.10         57.13                S&P Capital IQ                                       THOMAS GRAVES                                   hold                        45.00         28-Feb-13
                               31-Jan-13              64%                36%                0%                    1-Mar-13             40.10         57.13                D.A. Davidson & Co                                   TIMOTHY S RAMEY                                 buy                         78.00         21-Feb-13
                               31-Dec-12              89%                11%                0%                   28-Feb-13             39.99         57.13                Wedbush                                              ROMMEL T DIONISIO                            outperform                     54.00         21-Feb-13
                               30-Nov-12              100%                0%                0%                   27-Feb-13             37.16         57.13                Canaccord Genuity Corp                               SCOTT VAN WINKLE                                buy                         63.00         21-Feb-13
                               31-Oct-12              100%                0%                0%                   26-Feb-13             35.86         57.13                Barclays                                             BRIAN WANG                                   overweight                     60.00         21-Feb-13
                               28-Sep-12              100%                0%                0%                   25-Feb-13             35.36         57.13                SunTrust Robinson Humphrey                           MICHAEL A SWARTZ                                buy                         65.00         20-Feb-13
                               31-Aug-12              100%                0%                0%                   22-Feb-13             36.52         57.13                Janney Montgomery Scott LLC                          JOHN SAN MARCO                                 neutral                      45.00         20-Feb-13
                               31-Jul-12              100%                0%                0%                   21-Feb-13             37.51         57.13                Makor Capital                                        ALBERT SAPORTA                                  buy                         60.00         30-Jan-13
                               29-Jun-12              100%                0%                0%                   20-Feb-13             37.50         60.89                EVA Dimensions                                       AUSTIN BURKETT                                  hold                                      15-Jan-13
                               31-May-12              100%                0%                0%                   19-Feb-13             39.44         58.63                Argus Research Corp                                  JOHN D STASZAK                                  hold                                      21-Dec-12
                               30-Apr-12              92%                 8%                0%                   18-Feb-13             38.45         58.63
                               30-Mar-12              92%                 8%                0%                   15-Feb-13             38.45         58.63
                                                                                                                 14-Feb-13             37.99         58.63
                                                                                                                 13-Feb-13             36.13         58.63
                                                                                                                 12-Feb-13             35.73         58.63
                                                                                                                 11-Feb-13             35.82         58.63
                                                                                                                  8-Feb-13             35.58         58.63
                                                                                                                  7-Feb-13             35.65         58.63
                                                                                                                  6-Feb-13             35.52         58.63
                                                                                                                  5-Feb-13             35.48         58.63
                                                                                                                  4-Feb-13             35.28         58.63
                                                                                                                  1-Feb-13             34.81         58.63
                                                                                                                 31-Jan-13             36.05         58.63
                                                                                                                 30-Jan-13             36.81         58.63
                                                                                                                 29-Jan-13             38.38         58.43
                                                                                                                 28-Jan-13             39.72         58.43
                                                                                                                 25-Jan-13             43.27         58.43
                                                                                                                 24-Jan-13             42.93         58.43
                                                                                                                 23-Jan-13             42.69         58.43
                                                                                                                 22-Jan-13             43.81         58.43

                                                                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
04.03.2013



Herbalife Ltd
                                                                              Company Analysis - Ownership
                                                                                     Ownership Type
Ownership Statistics                                                                                                                  Geographic Ownership Distribution                                             Geographic Ownership
                                                                                           1%
Shares Outstanding (M)                          106.9                                                                                 United States                             84.46%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1%
Float                                           84.4%                                                                                 Britain                                   3.69%                                     1% 1%           3%
                                                                        27%                                                                                                                                         2%
Short Interest (M)                                33.6                                                                                Luxembourg                                3.15%                              3%
Short Interest as % of Float                   37.23%                                                                                 France                                    1.96%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4%
Days to Cover Shorts                              3.69                                                                                Canada                                    1.47%
Institutional Ownership                       155.57%                                                                                 Unknown Country                           1.25%
Retail Ownership                              -57.54%                                                                                 Japan                                     0.80%
Insider Ownership                               1.98%                                                                                 Others                                    3.21%
                                                                                                           72%
                                                                                                                                      Institutional Ownership Distribution                                                                     85%
                                                                                                                                      Investment Advisor                        69.63%
                                                                                                                                      Hedge Fund Manager                        25.24%
                                                                                                                                      Pension Fund (Erisa)                      1.81%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          United States         Britain          Luxembourg
                                                           Institutional Ownership      Retail Ownership   Insider Ownership          Individual                                1.25%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          France                Canada           Unknown Country
Pricing data is in USD                                                                                                                Others                                    2.06%                     Japan                 Others
Top 20 Owners:                 TOP 20 ALL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Institutional Ownership
Holder Name                                    Position   Position Change                       Market Value         % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source       Country
FMR LLC                                     14'968'673          -2'114'101                       600'243'787             14.52%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES                                 1%         2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2%
ICAHN ASSOCIATES COR                        14'015'151         11'542'344                        562'007'555             13.60%                      01.03.2013     13D      UNITED STATES
THIRD POINT LLC                              8'900'000           5'800'000                       356'890'000              8.63%                      03.01.2013     13G      UNITED STATES
MORGAN STANLEY                               6'729'188                   0                       269'840'439              6.53%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
VANGUARD GROUP INC                           5'735'691            -403'576                       230'001'209              5.56%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES                        25%
BLACKROCK                                    4'403'432          -1'155'288                       176'577'623              4.27%                      31.01.2013   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
WELLINGTON MANAGEMEN                         4'313'399           2'704'201                       172'967'300              4.18%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
BNP PARIBAS INV PART                         3'840'783           1'148'356                       154'015'398              3.73%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG       FRANCE                                                          70%
CAPITAL GROWTH MANAG                         3'346'500             980'000                       134'194'650              3.25%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
THIRD POINT LLC                              3'100'000           3'100'000                       124'310'000              3.01%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
RR PARTNERS LP                               3'019'100             199'900                       121'065'910              2.93%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
JENNISON ASSOCIATES                          2'935'548             918'335                       117'715'475              2.85%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP                          2'854'717           1'743'756                       114'474'152              2.77%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
MUNDER CAPITAL MANAG                         2'617'700             423'402                       104'969'770              2.54%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES   Investment Advisor           Hedge Fund Manager    Pension Fund (Erisa)
                                                                                                                                                                                             Individual                   Others
HERNDON CAPITAL MANA                         2'549'737             149'920                       102'244'454              2.47%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
STATE STREET                                 2'450'067               3'119                        98'247'687              2.38%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
TIGER CONSUMER MANAG                         2'315'619             874'244                        92'856'322              2.25%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
VISIUM ASSET MANAGEM                         2'165'000           2'065'000                        86'816'500              2.10%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
INVESTEC ASSET MANAG                         2'073'207             137'317                        83'135'601              2.01%                      31.12.2012     13F         BRITAIN
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLO                         1'943'900            -249'300                        77'950'390              1.89%                      31.12.2012     13F      UNITED STATES
Top 5 Insiders:


Holder Name                                   Position    Position Change                       Market Value         % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source
JOHNSON MICHAEL O                            1'117'814              -17'004                        44'824'341              1.08%                     27.02.2013    Form 4
TARTOL JOHN                                    232'943               -7'000                         9'341'014              0.23%                     03.12.2012    Form 4
GOUDIS RICHARD                                 171'912               -8'502                         6'893'671              0.17%                     27.02.2013    Form 4
LEVY ROBERT                                    167'167                  521                         6'703'397              0.16%                     29.11.2012    Form 4
WALSH DESMOND                                  111'868              -10'203                         4'485'907              0.11%                     27.02.2013    Form 4




                                                                               Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV
Herbalife Ltd
Financial information is in USD (M)                                                                                                                                             Equivalent Estimates
Periodicity:             Fiscal Year                 12/02         12/03    12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10   12/11   12/12   12/13E      12/14E        12/15E
Income Statement
Revenue                                               1'094        1'159    1'310       1'567       1'886        2'146       2'359        2'325      2'734   3'455   4'072    4'614       5'050
  - Cost of Goods Sold                                  236          236      270         316         380          438         458          493        559     680     813

Gross Income                                           858           924    1'040       1'251       1'505        1'707       1'901        1'831      2'175   2'774   3'260    3'692       4'050
  - Selling, General & Admin Expenses                  730           817      901       1'032       1'248        1'394       1'569        1'535      1'788   2'212   2'598
          (Research & Dev Costs)                                                                                                                                         0

Operating Income                                       128           107      139        219          257         313          332         296        388     562     661      718          796          871
  - Interest Expense                                                                                  123          29           20           5         10      10      17
  - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)                       0            0        0          0            0           0            0           0          0       0       0
  - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)                     83           41      123         44          -84         -18           -7           0         -2      -7      -6

Pretax Income                                            45           66       15        175          217         303          319         291        380     560     651      701          776
  - Income Tax Expense                                   21           29       30         82           74         111           98          88         90     147     174

Income Before XO Items                                   23           37      -14         93          143         191          221         203        291     413     477
   - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax                        0            0        0          0            0           0            0           0          0       0       0
   - Minority Interests                                   0            0        0          0            0           0            0           0          0       0       0

Diluted EPS Before XO Items                                                 (0.14)      0.64         0.96        1.32        1.68         1.61       2.34    3.30    4.05

Net Income Adjusted*                                     84            37      -14         96         154         197         232          205        297     414     477      500          554
EPS Adjusted                                          0.00          0.00    (0.14)      0.67         1.03        1.36        1.77         1.62       2.39    3.31    4.05     4.67         5.39
Dividends Per Share                                                                     0.00         0.00        0.40        0.40         0.40       0.45    0.73    1.20     1.32         1.44
        Payout Ratio %                                 0.0           0.0                 0.0          0.0        29.0        22.9         23.9       18.5    20.7    28.3     0.28         0.27

Total Shares Outstanding                                                      137        140          143         129          123         120        118     116     107
Diluted Shares Outstanding                                                    106        145          149         145          132         126        125     125     118

EBITDA                                                 151           163      183        256          287         348          381         358        456     634     736      794          886

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.




                                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV
Periodicity:                               12/02       12/03    12/04       12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09        12/10     12/11     12/12    12/13E   12/14E   12/15E
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets                   204.703995 277.743011   369.913    299.551      455.707     487.096      484.768     513.502       595.586   768.819   963.848
  + Cash & Near Cash Items                     64        151       202         88          154         187          151         151           191       259       334
  + Short Term Investments                      1          0         0                       0           0            0           0             0         0         0
  + Accounts & Notes Receivable                29         32        30         37           52          59           70          77            86        90       116
  + Inventories                                57         59        71        110          146         129          134         146           182       248       339
  + Other Current Assets                       53         36        68         64          104         112          130         140           137       173       175

Total Long-Term Assets                       651        626       579         538          561         580          637         633          637       677       740
  + Long Term Investments                      0          0         0           0            0           0            0           0            0         0         0
         Gross Fixed Assets                   54         63        76          96          138         187          265         325          344       387       499
         Accumulated Depreciation              8         18        20          31           33          66           89         147          167       194       256
  + Net Fixed Assets                          46         45        55          65          105         121          175         178          177       194       243
  + Other Long Term Assets                   605        581       523         473          456         459          461         455          459       484       497

Total Current Liabilities                    198        276       371         285          323         376          402         430          471       549       717
  + Accounts Payable                          22         23        24          39           40          35           41          37           44        57        75
  + Short Term Borrowings                     19         72       120          10            6           5           15          12            3         2        56
  + Other Short Term Liabilities             157        181       227         236          278         336          346         380          424       490       585

Total Long Term Liabilities                  467        390       513         383          340         509          478         357          274       337       566
  + Long Term Borrowings                     322        253       366         253          180         360          337         238          175       202       431
  + Other Long Term Borrowings               145        137       147         130          160         149          141         119           99       135       135

Total Liabilities                            664         666      884         669          663         885          880         787          745       886      1'283
  + Long Preferred Equity                    291         446        0           0            0           0            0           0            0         0          0
  + Minority Interest                          0           0        0           0            0           0            0           0            0         0          0
  + Share Capital & APIC                     177         183       75          90          133         161          198         223          257       292        304
  + Retained Earnings & Other Equity        -277        -392      -10          79          221          21           44         136          230       268        117

Total Shareholders Equity                    191        238        64         169          354         182          242         359          487       560       421

Total Liabilities & Equity                   856        904       949         838        1'017        1'067       1'121        1'146        1'232     1'446     1'704

Book Value Per Share                                              0.47        1.21         2.47        1.41        1.97         2.98         4.14      4.84      3.94     6.06    10.33
  Tangible Book Value Per Share                                  -3.15       -2.00        -0.50       -1.86       -1.46        -0.46         0.62      1.23      0.04




                                                                  Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV
Periodicity:                           12/02   12/03   12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10   12/11   12/12    12/13E   12/14E   12/15E
Cash Flows
Net Income                               23      37      -14         93          143         191          221         203        291     413      477      505      561
  + Depreciation & Amortization          23      56       44         37           30          35           49          62         69      72       74
  + Other Non-Cash Adjustments           -8      -6       37         -7          -26         -18           19          14          2     -13       -6
  + Changes in Non-Cash Capital          28       8       14         20           37          62          -16           5         28      38       22

Cash From Operating Activities            66      95      80        143          184         271          273         285        389     509      568
  + Disposal of Fixed Assets               0       0       0          0            0           0            0           0          0       0        0
  + Capital Expenditures                  -7     -14     -23        -32          -62         -42          -89         -60        -68     -90     -122      -175     -150
  + Increase in Investments                0       0       0          0            0           0            0           0          0       0        0
  + Decrease in Investments                0       0       0          0            0           0            0           0          0       0        0
  + Other Investing Activities          -430      16      14         -1           -4          -2            4         -12         -1      -2       -4

Cash From Investing Activities          -437       3      -9         -33         -67          -43         -85         -71         -69     -92     -125
  + Dividends Paid                       -10       0    -185           0           0          -42         -51         -49         -54     -85     -135
  + Change in Short Term Borrowings        0       0       0           0           0            0           0           0           0       0        0
  + Increase in Long Term Borrowings     383       7     209           5         215          294         118         212         427     914    1'431
  + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings     -55     -24    -327        -233        -300         -122        -167        -313        -499    -889   -1'147
  + Increase in Capital Stocks           186       4     203           2          32           33          34          11          23      50       41
  + Decrease in Capital Stocks             0       0    -183           0           0         -366        -139         -75        -160    -322     -557
  + Other Financing Activities           -47       2     262           1           1            8         -20          -0         -17     -17       -1

Cash From Financing Activities          458      -11     -20        -224         -52         -194        -225        -214        -280    -349    -368

Net Changes in Cash                      87      86      51         -113          66          33          -37           -0        40      68       75

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX)               59      81      57         112          122         229          184         225        321     419      446      410      540

Free Cash Flow To Firm                                                          203          247         198          229        328     426     459
Free Cash Flow To Equity                        219     -507        -116          37         401         135          124        249     445     731
Free Cash Flow per Share                                0.54        0.81        0.86         1.65        1.45         1.84       2.70    3.56    3.97




                                                        Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV
Periodicity:                         12/02   12/03    12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10   12/11   12/12    12/13E   12/14E    12/15E
Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios
  Price Earnings                                                  25.2x       19.4x        14.9x         6.1x       12.4x      14.3x   15.6x     8.1x     8.6x     7.4x
  EV to EBIT                                          10.1x       11.2x       11.3x         8.9x         4.6x        8.6x      10.4x   10.5x     5.6x
  EV to EBITDA                                         7.7x        9.6x       10.1x         8.0x         4.0x        7.1x       8.8x    9.3x     5.0x     5.4x     4.8x
  Price to Sales                                       0.7x        1.4x        1.5x         1.3x         0.6x        1.1x       1.5x    1.8x     0.9x     0.9x     0.8x
  Price to Book                                       17.3x       13.5x        8.1x        14.2x         5.5x        6.8x       8.3x   10.7x     8.4x     6.6x     3.9x
  Dividend Yield                                                  0.0%        0.0%         2.0%         3.7%        2.0%       1.3%    1.4%     3.6%     3.3%     3.6%

Profitability Ratios
  Gross Margin                       78.5%   79.7%    79.4%      79.8%        79.8%       79.6%       80.6%        78.8%       79.6%   80.3%   80.0%     80.0%   80.2%
  EBITDA Margin                      13.8%   14.0%    13.9%      16.3%        15.2%       16.2%       16.1%        15.4%       16.7%   18.4%   18.1%     17.2%   17.5% -
  Operating Margin                   11.7%    9.2%    10.6%      14.0%        13.6%       14.6%       14.1%        12.7%       14.2%   16.3%   16.2%     15.6%   15.8%
  Profit Margin                       2.1%    3.2%    -1.1%       5.9%         7.6%        8.9%        9.4%         8.7%       10.6%   11.9%   11.7%     10.8%   11.0%
  Return on Assets                            4.2%    -1.5%      10.4%        15.4%       18.4%       20.2%        17.9%       24.4%   30.8%   30.3%     49.1%   70.2%
  Return on Equity                                               79.9%        54.8%       71.4%      104.3%        67.7%       68.6%   78.8%   97.3%    -29.9%   64.3%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios
  Current Ratio                       1.04    1.01     1.00        1.05        1.41         1.30        1.21        1.19        1.27    1.40    1.34
  Quick Ratio                         0.48    0.66     0.62        0.44        0.64         0.66        0.55        0.53        0.59    0.64    0.63
  Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)                                             2.08        10.84       16.53       58.01       40.10   57.00   39.52
  Tot Debt/Capital                    0.64    0.58     0.88        0.61        0.34         0.67        0.59        0.41        0.27    0.27    0.54
  Tot Debt/Equity                     1.78    1.37     7.56        1.56        0.52         2.00        1.45        0.70        0.37    0.36    1.16

Others
  Asset Turnover                              1.32     1.41        1.75        2.03         2.06        2.16        2.05        2.30    2.58    2.59
  Accounts Receivable Turnover               38.01    42.57       46.90       42.36        38.84       36.65       31.64       33.64   39.42   39.58
  Accounts Payable Turnover                  10.81    11.99       11.14       10.53        11.17       12.14       12.87       14.68   14.78   13.67
  Inventory Turnover                          4.06     4.14        3.49        2.97         3.19        3.49        3.52        3.40    3.16    2.77

  Effective Tax Rate                 47.6%   43.8%   192.8%      46.8%        34.2%       36.7%        30.7%       30.1%       23.6%   26.3%   26.7%




                                                       Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Peers Comparision
                                                           USANA HEALTH                                          TUPPERWARE        WEIGHT                                  NATURE'S                                                   FOREVERGREEN                          ATRIUM                          ENERGIZER
                                         HERBALIFE LTD                       NU SKIN ENTERP-A AVON PRODUCTS                                          MEDIFAST INC                           RELIV INTL INC        MANNATECH INC                    LIFEQUEST WORLD                         CLOROX CO
                                                               SCI                                                 BRAND          WATCHERS                                 SUNSHNE                                                        WOR                             INNOVATIO                          HOLDGS

Latest Fiscal Year:                            12/2012           12/2012             12/2012        12/2012           12/2012           12/2012             12/2011            12/2011               12/2011             12/2011            12/2011                 -          12/2012          06/2012          09/2012
52-Week High                                      73.00             50.23               62.02          23.58             79.94             82.91               33.29              18.39                   1.88                7.90               0.25            0.02             12.94            84.95            92.64
52-Week High Date                            23.04.2012        24.10.2012          26.03.2012     13.04.2012        19.02.2013        23.03.2012          19.12.2012         02.10.2012            15.06.2012          11.07.2012         06.03.2012      06.06.2012         29.01.2013       28.02.2013       19.02.2013
52-Week Low                                       24.25             30.51               32.36          13.70             50.90             40.60               14.86              12.66                   1.16                3.14               0.04            0.00               9.85           66.72            64.36
52-Week Low Date                             24.12.2012        27.12.2012          24.12.2012     16.11.2012        02.08.2012        02.08.2012          06.03.2012         14.05.2012            18.05.2012          23.03.2012         16.08.2012      20.09.2012         06.03.2012       03.05.2012       13.08.2012
Daily Volume                                    755'874           163'778           1'126'450      3'310'287           656'900           509'988             275'503             17'108                 7'109                 500             20'000             667             26'335          953'908          507'608
  Current Price (3/dd/yy)                         40.10            43.74               41.71           19.73            77.72              42.53              23.92               14.43                  1.20                5.67                0.07           0.00             12.15            83.98            91.24
  52-Week High % Change                          -45.1%            -12.9%             -32.7%          -16.3%            -2.8%             -48.7%              -28.1%             -21.5%                -36.2%              -28.2%             -71.8%         -97.6%               -6.1%            -1.1%           -1.5%
  52-Week Low % Change                            65.4%             43.4%              28.9%           44.0%            52.7%               4.8%               61.0%              14.0%                  3.4%               80.6%              76.0%         300.0%               23.4%           25.9%            41.8%
Total Common Shares (M)                           106.9              14.4               58.7           432.2             55.9               55.7                15.5               15.6                  12.5                 2.6               14.9               -               32.3           129.6             61.5
  Market Capitalization                        4'133.8            631.0              2'448.4        8'528.9           4'198.1           2'371.2               371.4              227.5                  15.0                15.0                 1.0            0.0              381.3        10'998.2           5'661.1
Total Debt                                        487.6              -                 194.0         3'195.9            617.8            2'291.7                5.7                 9.2                   3.6                2.2                  2.5              -             283.3          2'721.0          2'532.5
Preferred Stock                                     -                -                   -               -                -                  -                  -                   -                     -                  -                    -                -               -                -                -
Minority Interest                                   -                -                   -              16.2              -                  -                  -                   -                     -                  -                    -                -               0.0              -                -
Cash and Equivalents                              333.5             70.8               333.4         1'209.6            119.8                -                 33.8                64.6                   7.2               18.1                  0.2              -              22.8            267.0            718.5
   Enterprise Value                            4'287.9            560.1              2'308.9       10'531.4           4'696.1           4'662.9               312.9              159.5                  13.3                 3.9                 3.3                  -          641.7        13'227.2           7'426.9
                                                                                                                                                       Valuation
Total Revenue                      LFY          4'072.3            648.7             2'169.7        10'717.1          2'583.8            1'826.7              298.2               367.8                 73.9               200.7                13.7                -            437.5          5'468.0          4'567.2
                                  LTM           4'072.3            648.7             2'169.7        10'717.1          2'548.9            1'826.8              343.0               369.1                 68.7               179.1                13.5               -             437.5          5'605.0          4'561.6
                                 CY+1           4'613.6            712.0             2'343.6        10'786.8          2'721.9            1'763.3              356.3               370.0                      -                   -                   -             -             461.1          5'697.8          4'622.7
                                 CY+2           5'050.0            766.3             2'543.6        11'149.9          2'898.1            1'820.2              397.3               381.0                      -                   -                   -             -             486.4          5'881.0          4'679.4
EV/Total Revenue                   LFY              0.9x             0.6x                0.9x             0.8x             1.4x              2.8x                1.2x               0.5x                  0.2x                0.0x                0.3x              -              1.4x              2.2x             1.5x
                                  LTM               0.9x             0.6x                0.9x             0.8x             1.4x              2.8x                1.0x               0.5x                  0.2x                0.0x                0.3x              -              1.4x              2.1x             1.5x
                                 CY+1               0.9x             0.7x                1.0x             1.0x                -              2.5x                0.9x                   -                     -                   -                   -             -              1.2x              2.3x             1.5x
                                 CY+2               0.7x             0.5x                0.8x             0.9x                -              2.3x                0.7x                   -                     -                   -                   -             -              1.1x              2.2x             1.4x
EBITDA                             LFY            735.8             85.7               266.6           797.4            432.3              582.1               35.7                39.3                   2.9                (6.2)               (1.0)              -             90.6          1'081.0            843.0
                                  LTM             735.8             98.9               361.6           797.4            437.5              546.4               32.1                42.0                   2.6                (1.8)               (0.7)             -              86.7          1'132.0                  -
                                 CY+1             794.0            119.0               411.4         1'034.2            490.2              465.5               39.8                45.7                      -                   -                   -             -              90.8          1'166.5            904.3
                                 CY+2             885.6            126.5               456.0         1'205.8            531.3              500.3               50.4                51.7                      -                   -                   -             -              96.4          1'242.6            953.6
EV/EBITDA                          LFY              5.0x             4.5x                7.6x           10.3x              8.1x              8.8x                9.7x               4.8x                  5.2x               -0.4x              -3.4x               -              6.8x            10.9x              8.0x
                                  LTM               5.0x             6.0x                6.0x           10.3x              8.0x              9.6x              10.8x                4.5x                  5.8x                    -                   -             -              7.1x            10.4x                  -
                                 CY+1               4.9x             4.1x                5.6x           10.0x                 -              9.6x                8.0x                   -                     -                   -                   -             -              6.3x            11.2x              7.8x
                                 CY+2               3.8x             3.2x                4.7x             8.1x                -              8.4x                5.9x                   -                     -                   -                   -             -              5.4x            10.4x              6.9x
EPS                                LFY              4.05             4.45                3.52            0.82             4.57               4.24               1.31                1.73                 0.08               -7.80               -0.10               -              1.54             4.24             6.20
                                  LTM               4.07             4.46                3.52            0.77             4.73               4.34               1.39                1.80                 0.10               -3.26               -0.09               -              1.46             4.35             6.34
                                 CY+1              4.67             5.19                3.98            1.03             5.71               3.62               1.45                1.75                      -                   -                   -             -              1.64             4.34             6.81
                                 CY+2              5.39             5.70                4.50            1.27             6.44               3.99               1.76                1.81                      -                   -                   -             -              1.78             4.70             7.58
P/E                                LFY              9.9x             9.8x               11.8x           25.6x            16.4x               9.8x              17.2x                8.0x                12.0x                     -                   -             -              8.1x            19.3x            14.4x
                                  LTM               9.9x             9.8x               11.8x           25.6x            16.4x               9.8x              17.2x                8.0x                12.0x                     -                   -             -              8.1x            19.3x            14.4x
                                 CY+1               8.6x             8.4x               10.5x           19.2x            13.6x              11.8x              16.5x                8.2x                      -                   -                   -             -              7.2x            19.4x            13.4x
                                 CY+2               7.4x             7.7x                9.3x           15.5x            12.1x              10.7x              13.6x                8.0x                      -                   -                   -             -              6.6x            17.9x            12.0x
Revenue Growth                  1 Year            17.9%            11.5%               24.4%           (5.1%)           (0.0%)              0.4%              15.8%                5.1%                (6.2%)             (12.0%)              29.0%                -             5.5%              4.5%           (1.7%)
                                5 Year            13.7%             9.3%               14.2%           (0.3%)             5.7%              3.9%              34.5%                0.5%                (9.4%)             (14.8%)             (5.5%)                -            14.4%              2.3%             0.4%
EBITDA Growth                   1 Year            16.0%                  -                   -       (41.2%)                  -                  -            (4.7%)             153.1%               (31.3%)                     -         (615.6%)                -                  -          (1.2%)             0.5%
                                5 Year            16.1%             4.4%               18.2%           (5.3%)           13.8%               8.1%              29.9%               20.4%               (26.5%)                     -                   -             -            26.8%              0.4%             6.1%
EBITDA Margin                     LTM             18.1%            15.8%               17.4%             7.4%           17.2%              30.0%                9.4%              11.4%                  3.7%              (1.0%)             (5.5%)                -            20.1%            20.2%                   -
                                 CY+1             17.2%            16.7%               17.6%             9.6%           18.0%              26.4%              11.2%               12.4%                       -                   -                   -             -            19.7%            20.5%            19.6%
                                 CY+2             17.5%            16.5%               17.9%           10.8%            18.3%              27.5%              12.7%               13.6%                       -                   -                   -             -            19.8%            21.1%            20.4%
                                                                                                                                              Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Total Debt / Equity %                           115.9%               0.0%             32.8%           262.6%           129.4%                   -               7.7%             10.5%                 24.6%                10.2%                  -                  -          68.5%                 -          122.4%
Total Debt / Capital %                           53.7%               0.0%             24.7%            72.2%            56.4%             366.0%                7.2%               9.5%                19.8%                 9.3%                  -                  -          40.7%           105.2%            55.0%
Total Debt / EBITDA                              0.663x            0.000x             0.585x           4.008x           1.499x             4.419x             0.140x             0.160x                1.281x                    -                 -                  -          3.289x           2.362x                -
Net Debt / EBITDA                                0.209x           -0.774x            -0.349x           2.491x           1.239x             4.272x            -1.820x            -1.620x               -0.636x                    -                 -                  -          3.130x           1.969x                -
EBITDA / Int. Expense                           43.967x         9525.556x            55.540x           7.645x           8.822x             9.727x           350.255x           441.315x               20.539x                    -           -4.406x                  -          7.260x           8.648x           6.622x
                                                                                                                                                     Credit Ratings
S&P LT Credit Rating                                NR                  -                   -          BBB-              BBB-                BB                       -                -                     -                   -                   -             -                  -            BBB+             BBB-
S&P LT Credit Rating Date                    25.03.2011                  -                   -    15.05.2012        30.06.2010        05.01.2007                       -                -                     -                   -                   -             -                  -      26.09.2011       16.05.2011
Moody's LT Credit Rating                            WR                  -                   -          Baa2              Baa3                  -                      -                -                     -                   -                   -             -                  -            Baa1             Baa3
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date                23.08.2006                  -                   -    28.02.2013        25.05.2011                  -                      -                -                     -                   -                   -             -                  -      05.10.2010       16.05.2011



                                                                                                                           Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

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Financial Analysis - Herbalife Ltd. is a network marketing company that sells weight management, nutritional supplement and personal care products

  • 1. 04.03.2013 Company Analysis - Overview Ticker: HLF UN Herbalife Ltd Benchmark: Herbalife Ltd. is a network marketing company that sells weight management, New York: HLF, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) nutritional supplement and personal care products. The Company sells its products Currency: globally through a network of independent distributors. Herbalife also sells literature and promotional materials. Sector: Consumer Staples Industry: Personal Products Year: Telephone 1-213-745-0500 Revenue (M) 4'072 Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M) Website www.herbalife.com No of Employees 6'200 Weight Management 1 Asia Pacific 1140 Address Ugland House, South Church St PO Box 309GT Grand Cayman, 90015 Cayman Islands Targeted Nutrition North America 841 Share Price Performance in USD Literature, promotional and other(2) South America and Southeast Asia(4) 689 Price 40.10 1M Return 13.7% Energy and Fitness EMEA 628 52 Week High 71.10 6M Return -18.2% Outer Nutrition Mexico & Central America 496 52 Week Low 24.07 52 Wk Return -38.7% Greater China 279 52 Wk Beta 1.13 YTD Return 22.6% Credit Ratings Bloomberg - 7% S&P NR Date 25.03.2011 Outlook - Moody's WR Date 07.07.2005 Outlook - 12% 28% Fitch - Date - Outlook - Valuation Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E P/E 12.4x 14.3x 15.6x 8.1x 8.6x 7.4x - 15% EV/EBIT 8.6x 10.4x 10.5x 5.6x - - - EV/EBITDA 7.1x 8.8x 9.3x 5.0x 5.4x 4.8x - P/S 1.1x 1.5x 1.8x 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x - P/B 6.8x 8.3x 10.7x 8.4x 6.6x 3.9x - 21% Div Yield 2.0% 1.3% 1.4% 3.6% 3.3% 3.6% - 17% 100% Profitability Ratios % 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Gross Margin 78.8 79.6 80.3 80.0 80.0 80.2 - Asia Pacific EBITDA Margin 15.4 16.7 18.4 18.1 17.2 17.5 - North America Operating Margin 12.7 14.2 16.3 16.2 15.6 15.8 - South America and Southeast Asia(4) Weight Management Profit Margin 8.7 10.6 11.9 11.7 10.8 11.0 - EMEA Return on Assets 17.9 24.4 30.8 30.3 49.1 70.2 - Mexico & Central America Return on Equity 67.7 68.6 78.8 97.3 -29.9 64.3 - Greater China Leverage and Coverage Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 Current Ratio 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 Current Capitalization in USD Quick Ratio 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 106.9 EBIT/Interest 58.0 40.1 57.0 39.5 Market Capitalization (M) 4133.8 Tot Debt/Capital 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 Cash and ST Investments (M) 333.5 Tot Debt/Equity 0.7 0.4 0.4 1.2 Total Debt (M) 487.6 Eff Tax Rate % 30.1 23.6 26.3 26.7 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 0.0 Enterprise Value (M) 4287.9 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 2. Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings Herbalife Ltd Target price in USD Broker Recommendation Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price Price Brokers' Target Price 90 90 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 8% 11% 80 80 80% 36% 36% 70 70 60 60 60% 50 50 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 40 92% 92% 89% 40 40% 30 64% 64% 30 20 20 10 20% 10 0 Montgomery Genuity Corp Barclays Humphrey S&P Capital IQ Makor Capital D.A. Davidson Dimensions Research Corp Wedbush Robinson SunTrust Canaccord Scott LLC 0% 0 Janney EVA Argus & Co mars.12 avr.12 mai.12 juin.12 juil.12 août.12 sept.12 oct.12 nov.12 déc.12 janv.13 févr.13 Buy Hold Sell Price Target Price Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date 28-Feb-13 64% 36% 0% 4-Mar-13 40.10 57.13 S&P Capital IQ THOMAS GRAVES hold 45.00 28-Feb-13 31-Jan-13 64% 36% 0% 1-Mar-13 40.10 57.13 D.A. Davidson & Co TIMOTHY S RAMEY buy 78.00 21-Feb-13 31-Dec-12 89% 11% 0% 28-Feb-13 39.99 57.13 Wedbush ROMMEL T DIONISIO outperform 54.00 21-Feb-13 30-Nov-12 100% 0% 0% 27-Feb-13 37.16 57.13 Canaccord Genuity Corp SCOTT VAN WINKLE buy 63.00 21-Feb-13 31-Oct-12 100% 0% 0% 26-Feb-13 35.86 57.13 Barclays BRIAN WANG overweight 60.00 21-Feb-13 28-Sep-12 100% 0% 0% 25-Feb-13 35.36 57.13 SunTrust Robinson Humphrey MICHAEL A SWARTZ buy 65.00 20-Feb-13 31-Aug-12 100% 0% 0% 22-Feb-13 36.52 57.13 Janney Montgomery Scott LLC JOHN SAN MARCO neutral 45.00 20-Feb-13 31-Jul-12 100% 0% 0% 21-Feb-13 37.51 57.13 Makor Capital ALBERT SAPORTA buy 60.00 30-Jan-13 29-Jun-12 100% 0% 0% 20-Feb-13 37.50 60.89 EVA Dimensions AUSTIN BURKETT hold 15-Jan-13 31-May-12 100% 0% 0% 19-Feb-13 39.44 58.63 Argus Research Corp JOHN D STASZAK hold 21-Dec-12 30-Apr-12 92% 8% 0% 18-Feb-13 38.45 58.63 30-Mar-12 92% 8% 0% 15-Feb-13 38.45 58.63 14-Feb-13 37.99 58.63 13-Feb-13 36.13 58.63 12-Feb-13 35.73 58.63 11-Feb-13 35.82 58.63 8-Feb-13 35.58 58.63 7-Feb-13 35.65 58.63 6-Feb-13 35.52 58.63 5-Feb-13 35.48 58.63 4-Feb-13 35.28 58.63 1-Feb-13 34.81 58.63 31-Jan-13 36.05 58.63 30-Jan-13 36.81 58.63 29-Jan-13 38.38 58.43 28-Jan-13 39.72 58.43 25-Jan-13 43.27 58.43 24-Jan-13 42.93 58.43 23-Jan-13 42.69 58.43 22-Jan-13 43.81 58.43 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 3. 04.03.2013 Herbalife Ltd Company Analysis - Ownership Ownership Type Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution Geographic Ownership 1% Shares Outstanding (M) 106.9 United States 84.46% 1% Float 84.4% Britain 3.69% 1% 1% 3% 27% 2% Short Interest (M) 33.6 Luxembourg 3.15% 3% Short Interest as % of Float 37.23% France 1.96% 4% Days to Cover Shorts 3.69 Canada 1.47% Institutional Ownership 155.57% Unknown Country 1.25% Retail Ownership -57.54% Japan 0.80% Insider Ownership 1.98% Others 3.21% 72% Institutional Ownership Distribution 85% Investment Advisor 69.63% Hedge Fund Manager 25.24% Pension Fund (Erisa) 1.81% United States Britain Luxembourg Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership Individual 1.25% France Canada Unknown Country Pricing data is in USD Others 2.06% Japan Others Top 20 Owners: TOP 20 ALL Institutional Ownership Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country FMR LLC 14'968'673 -2'114'101 600'243'787 14.52% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 1% 2% 2% ICAHN ASSOCIATES COR 14'015'151 11'542'344 562'007'555 13.60% 01.03.2013 13D UNITED STATES THIRD POINT LLC 8'900'000 5'800'000 356'890'000 8.63% 03.01.2013 13G UNITED STATES MORGAN STANLEY 6'729'188 0 269'840'439 6.53% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES VANGUARD GROUP INC 5'735'691 -403'576 230'001'209 5.56% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES 25% BLACKROCK 4'403'432 -1'155'288 176'577'623 4.27% 31.01.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES WELLINGTON MANAGEMEN 4'313'399 2'704'201 172'967'300 4.18% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES BNP PARIBAS INV PART 3'840'783 1'148'356 154'015'398 3.73% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG FRANCE 70% CAPITAL GROWTH MANAG 3'346'500 980'000 134'194'650 3.25% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES THIRD POINT LLC 3'100'000 3'100'000 124'310'000 3.01% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES RR PARTNERS LP 3'019'100 199'900 121'065'910 2.93% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES JENNISON ASSOCIATES 2'935'548 918'335 117'715'475 2.85% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP 2'854'717 1'743'756 114'474'152 2.77% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES MUNDER CAPITAL MANAG 2'617'700 423'402 104'969'770 2.54% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES Investment Advisor Hedge Fund Manager Pension Fund (Erisa) Individual Others HERNDON CAPITAL MANA 2'549'737 149'920 102'244'454 2.47% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES STATE STREET 2'450'067 3'119 98'247'687 2.38% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES TIGER CONSUMER MANAG 2'315'619 874'244 92'856'322 2.25% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES VISIUM ASSET MANAGEM 2'165'000 2'065'000 86'816'500 2.10% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES INVESTEC ASSET MANAG 2'073'207 137'317 83'135'601 2.01% 31.12.2012 13F BRITAIN RENAISSANCE TECHNOLO 1'943'900 -249'300 77'950'390 1.89% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES Top 5 Insiders: Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source JOHNSON MICHAEL O 1'117'814 -17'004 44'824'341 1.08% 27.02.2013 Form 4 TARTOL JOHN 232'943 -7'000 9'341'014 0.23% 03.12.2012 Form 4 GOUDIS RICHARD 171'912 -8'502 6'893'671 0.17% 27.02.2013 Form 4 LEVY ROBERT 167'167 521 6'703'397 0.16% 29.11.2012 Form 4 WALSH DESMOND 111'868 -10'203 4'485'907 0.11% 27.02.2013 Form 4 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 4. Company Analysis - Financials I/IV Herbalife Ltd Financial information is in USD (M) Equivalent Estimates Periodicity: Fiscal Year 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Income Statement Revenue 1'094 1'159 1'310 1'567 1'886 2'146 2'359 2'325 2'734 3'455 4'072 4'614 5'050 - Cost of Goods Sold 236 236 270 316 380 438 458 493 559 680 813 Gross Income 858 924 1'040 1'251 1'505 1'707 1'901 1'831 2'175 2'774 3'260 3'692 4'050 - Selling, General & Admin Expenses 730 817 901 1'032 1'248 1'394 1'569 1'535 1'788 2'212 2'598 (Research & Dev Costs) 0 Operating Income 128 107 139 219 257 313 332 296 388 562 661 718 796 871 - Interest Expense 123 29 20 5 10 10 17 - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) 83 41 123 44 -84 -18 -7 0 -2 -7 -6 Pretax Income 45 66 15 175 217 303 319 291 380 560 651 701 776 - Income Tax Expense 21 29 30 82 74 111 98 88 90 147 174 Income Before XO Items 23 37 -14 93 143 191 221 203 291 413 477 - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Diluted EPS Before XO Items (0.14) 0.64 0.96 1.32 1.68 1.61 2.34 3.30 4.05 Net Income Adjusted* 84 37 -14 96 154 197 232 205 297 414 477 500 554 EPS Adjusted 0.00 0.00 (0.14) 0.67 1.03 1.36 1.77 1.62 2.39 3.31 4.05 4.67 5.39 Dividends Per Share 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.45 0.73 1.20 1.32 1.44 Payout Ratio % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.0 22.9 23.9 18.5 20.7 28.3 0.28 0.27 Total Shares Outstanding 137 140 143 129 123 120 118 116 107 Diluted Shares Outstanding 106 145 149 145 132 126 125 125 118 EBITDA 151 163 183 256 287 348 381 358 456 634 736 794 886 *Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges. Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 5. Company Analysis - Financials II/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Balance Sheet Total Current Assets 204.703995 277.743011 369.913 299.551 455.707 487.096 484.768 513.502 595.586 768.819 963.848 + Cash & Near Cash Items 64 151 202 88 154 187 151 151 191 259 334 + Short Term Investments 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Accounts & Notes Receivable 29 32 30 37 52 59 70 77 86 90 116 + Inventories 57 59 71 110 146 129 134 146 182 248 339 + Other Current Assets 53 36 68 64 104 112 130 140 137 173 175 Total Long-Term Assets 651 626 579 538 561 580 637 633 637 677 740 + Long Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gross Fixed Assets 54 63 76 96 138 187 265 325 344 387 499 Accumulated Depreciation 8 18 20 31 33 66 89 147 167 194 256 + Net Fixed Assets 46 45 55 65 105 121 175 178 177 194 243 + Other Long Term Assets 605 581 523 473 456 459 461 455 459 484 497 Total Current Liabilities 198 276 371 285 323 376 402 430 471 549 717 + Accounts Payable 22 23 24 39 40 35 41 37 44 57 75 + Short Term Borrowings 19 72 120 10 6 5 15 12 3 2 56 + Other Short Term Liabilities 157 181 227 236 278 336 346 380 424 490 585 Total Long Term Liabilities 467 390 513 383 340 509 478 357 274 337 566 + Long Term Borrowings 322 253 366 253 180 360 337 238 175 202 431 + Other Long Term Borrowings 145 137 147 130 160 149 141 119 99 135 135 Total Liabilities 664 666 884 669 663 885 880 787 745 886 1'283 + Long Preferred Equity 291 446 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Share Capital & APIC 177 183 75 90 133 161 198 223 257 292 304 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity -277 -392 -10 79 221 21 44 136 230 268 117 Total Shareholders Equity 191 238 64 169 354 182 242 359 487 560 421 Total Liabilities & Equity 856 904 949 838 1'017 1'067 1'121 1'146 1'232 1'446 1'704 Book Value Per Share 0.47 1.21 2.47 1.41 1.97 2.98 4.14 4.84 3.94 6.06 10.33 Tangible Book Value Per Share -3.15 -2.00 -0.50 -1.86 -1.46 -0.46 0.62 1.23 0.04 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 6. Company Analysis - Financials III/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Cash Flows Net Income 23 37 -14 93 143 191 221 203 291 413 477 505 561 + Depreciation & Amortization 23 56 44 37 30 35 49 62 69 72 74 + Other Non-Cash Adjustments -8 -6 37 -7 -26 -18 19 14 2 -13 -6 + Changes in Non-Cash Capital 28 8 14 20 37 62 -16 5 28 38 22 Cash From Operating Activities 66 95 80 143 184 271 273 285 389 509 568 + Disposal of Fixed Assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Capital Expenditures -7 -14 -23 -32 -62 -42 -89 -60 -68 -90 -122 -175 -150 + Increase in Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Decrease in Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Other Investing Activities -430 16 14 -1 -4 -2 4 -12 -1 -2 -4 Cash From Investing Activities -437 3 -9 -33 -67 -43 -85 -71 -69 -92 -125 + Dividends Paid -10 0 -185 0 0 -42 -51 -49 -54 -85 -135 + Change in Short Term Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Increase in Long Term Borrowings 383 7 209 5 215 294 118 212 427 914 1'431 + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -55 -24 -327 -233 -300 -122 -167 -313 -499 -889 -1'147 + Increase in Capital Stocks 186 4 203 2 32 33 34 11 23 50 41 + Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 0 -183 0 0 -366 -139 -75 -160 -322 -557 + Other Financing Activities -47 2 262 1 1 8 -20 -0 -17 -17 -1 Cash From Financing Activities 458 -11 -20 -224 -52 -194 -225 -214 -280 -349 -368 Net Changes in Cash 87 86 51 -113 66 33 -37 -0 40 68 75 Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 59 81 57 112 122 229 184 225 321 419 446 410 540 Free Cash Flow To Firm 203 247 198 229 328 426 459 Free Cash Flow To Equity 219 -507 -116 37 401 135 124 249 445 731 Free Cash Flow per Share 0.54 0.81 0.86 1.65 1.45 1.84 2.70 3.56 3.97 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 7. Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Ratio Analysis Valuation Ratios Price Earnings 25.2x 19.4x 14.9x 6.1x 12.4x 14.3x 15.6x 8.1x 8.6x 7.4x EV to EBIT 10.1x 11.2x 11.3x 8.9x 4.6x 8.6x 10.4x 10.5x 5.6x EV to EBITDA 7.7x 9.6x 10.1x 8.0x 4.0x 7.1x 8.8x 9.3x 5.0x 5.4x 4.8x Price to Sales 0.7x 1.4x 1.5x 1.3x 0.6x 1.1x 1.5x 1.8x 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x Price to Book 17.3x 13.5x 8.1x 14.2x 5.5x 6.8x 8.3x 10.7x 8.4x 6.6x 3.9x Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.7% 2.0% 1.3% 1.4% 3.6% 3.3% 3.6% Profitability Ratios Gross Margin 78.5% 79.7% 79.4% 79.8% 79.8% 79.6% 80.6% 78.8% 79.6% 80.3% 80.0% 80.0% 80.2% EBITDA Margin 13.8% 14.0% 13.9% 16.3% 15.2% 16.2% 16.1% 15.4% 16.7% 18.4% 18.1% 17.2% 17.5% - Operating Margin 11.7% 9.2% 10.6% 14.0% 13.6% 14.6% 14.1% 12.7% 14.2% 16.3% 16.2% 15.6% 15.8% Profit Margin 2.1% 3.2% -1.1% 5.9% 7.6% 8.9% 9.4% 8.7% 10.6% 11.9% 11.7% 10.8% 11.0% Return on Assets 4.2% -1.5% 10.4% 15.4% 18.4% 20.2% 17.9% 24.4% 30.8% 30.3% 49.1% 70.2% Return on Equity 79.9% 54.8% 71.4% 104.3% 67.7% 68.6% 78.8% 97.3% -29.9% 64.3% Leverage & Coverage Ratios Current Ratio 1.04 1.01 1.00 1.05 1.41 1.30 1.21 1.19 1.27 1.40 1.34 Quick Ratio 0.48 0.66 0.62 0.44 0.64 0.66 0.55 0.53 0.59 0.64 0.63 Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 2.08 10.84 16.53 58.01 40.10 57.00 39.52 Tot Debt/Capital 0.64 0.58 0.88 0.61 0.34 0.67 0.59 0.41 0.27 0.27 0.54 Tot Debt/Equity 1.78 1.37 7.56 1.56 0.52 2.00 1.45 0.70 0.37 0.36 1.16 Others Asset Turnover 1.32 1.41 1.75 2.03 2.06 2.16 2.05 2.30 2.58 2.59 Accounts Receivable Turnover 38.01 42.57 46.90 42.36 38.84 36.65 31.64 33.64 39.42 39.58 Accounts Payable Turnover 10.81 11.99 11.14 10.53 11.17 12.14 12.87 14.68 14.78 13.67 Inventory Turnover 4.06 4.14 3.49 2.97 3.19 3.49 3.52 3.40 3.16 2.77 Effective Tax Rate 47.6% 43.8% 192.8% 46.8% 34.2% 36.7% 30.7% 30.1% 23.6% 26.3% 26.7% Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 8. Company Analysis - Peers Comparision USANA HEALTH TUPPERWARE WEIGHT NATURE'S FOREVERGREEN ATRIUM ENERGIZER HERBALIFE LTD NU SKIN ENTERP-A AVON PRODUCTS MEDIFAST INC RELIV INTL INC MANNATECH INC LIFEQUEST WORLD CLOROX CO SCI BRAND WATCHERS SUNSHNE WOR INNOVATIO HOLDGS Latest Fiscal Year: 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 12/2011 - 12/2012 06/2012 09/2012 52-Week High 73.00 50.23 62.02 23.58 79.94 82.91 33.29 18.39 1.88 7.90 0.25 0.02 12.94 84.95 92.64 52-Week High Date 23.04.2012 24.10.2012 26.03.2012 13.04.2012 19.02.2013 23.03.2012 19.12.2012 02.10.2012 15.06.2012 11.07.2012 06.03.2012 06.06.2012 29.01.2013 28.02.2013 19.02.2013 52-Week Low 24.25 30.51 32.36 13.70 50.90 40.60 14.86 12.66 1.16 3.14 0.04 0.00 9.85 66.72 64.36 52-Week Low Date 24.12.2012 27.12.2012 24.12.2012 16.11.2012 02.08.2012 02.08.2012 06.03.2012 14.05.2012 18.05.2012 23.03.2012 16.08.2012 20.09.2012 06.03.2012 03.05.2012 13.08.2012 Daily Volume 755'874 163'778 1'126'450 3'310'287 656'900 509'988 275'503 17'108 7'109 500 20'000 667 26'335 953'908 507'608 Current Price (3/dd/yy) 40.10 43.74 41.71 19.73 77.72 42.53 23.92 14.43 1.20 5.67 0.07 0.00 12.15 83.98 91.24 52-Week High % Change -45.1% -12.9% -32.7% -16.3% -2.8% -48.7% -28.1% -21.5% -36.2% -28.2% -71.8% -97.6% -6.1% -1.1% -1.5% 52-Week Low % Change 65.4% 43.4% 28.9% 44.0% 52.7% 4.8% 61.0% 14.0% 3.4% 80.6% 76.0% 300.0% 23.4% 25.9% 41.8% Total Common Shares (M) 106.9 14.4 58.7 432.2 55.9 55.7 15.5 15.6 12.5 2.6 14.9 - 32.3 129.6 61.5 Market Capitalization 4'133.8 631.0 2'448.4 8'528.9 4'198.1 2'371.2 371.4 227.5 15.0 15.0 1.0 0.0 381.3 10'998.2 5'661.1 Total Debt 487.6 - 194.0 3'195.9 617.8 2'291.7 5.7 9.2 3.6 2.2 2.5 - 283.3 2'721.0 2'532.5 Preferred Stock - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Minority Interest - - - 16.2 - - - - - - - - 0.0 - - Cash and Equivalents 333.5 70.8 333.4 1'209.6 119.8 - 33.8 64.6 7.2 18.1 0.2 - 22.8 267.0 718.5 Enterprise Value 4'287.9 560.1 2'308.9 10'531.4 4'696.1 4'662.9 312.9 159.5 13.3 3.9 3.3 - 641.7 13'227.2 7'426.9 Valuation Total Revenue LFY 4'072.3 648.7 2'169.7 10'717.1 2'583.8 1'826.7 298.2 367.8 73.9 200.7 13.7 - 437.5 5'468.0 4'567.2 LTM 4'072.3 648.7 2'169.7 10'717.1 2'548.9 1'826.8 343.0 369.1 68.7 179.1 13.5 - 437.5 5'605.0 4'561.6 CY+1 4'613.6 712.0 2'343.6 10'786.8 2'721.9 1'763.3 356.3 370.0 - - - - 461.1 5'697.8 4'622.7 CY+2 5'050.0 766.3 2'543.6 11'149.9 2'898.1 1'820.2 397.3 381.0 - - - - 486.4 5'881.0 4'679.4 EV/Total Revenue LFY 0.9x 0.6x 0.9x 0.8x 1.4x 2.8x 1.2x 0.5x 0.2x 0.0x 0.3x - 1.4x 2.2x 1.5x LTM 0.9x 0.6x 0.9x 0.8x 1.4x 2.8x 1.0x 0.5x 0.2x 0.0x 0.3x - 1.4x 2.1x 1.5x CY+1 0.9x 0.7x 1.0x 1.0x - 2.5x 0.9x - - - - - 1.2x 2.3x 1.5x CY+2 0.7x 0.5x 0.8x 0.9x - 2.3x 0.7x - - - - - 1.1x 2.2x 1.4x EBITDA LFY 735.8 85.7 266.6 797.4 432.3 582.1 35.7 39.3 2.9 (6.2) (1.0) - 90.6 1'081.0 843.0 LTM 735.8 98.9 361.6 797.4 437.5 546.4 32.1 42.0 2.6 (1.8) (0.7) - 86.7 1'132.0 - CY+1 794.0 119.0 411.4 1'034.2 490.2 465.5 39.8 45.7 - - - - 90.8 1'166.5 904.3 CY+2 885.6 126.5 456.0 1'205.8 531.3 500.3 50.4 51.7 - - - - 96.4 1'242.6 953.6 EV/EBITDA LFY 5.0x 4.5x 7.6x 10.3x 8.1x 8.8x 9.7x 4.8x 5.2x -0.4x -3.4x - 6.8x 10.9x 8.0x LTM 5.0x 6.0x 6.0x 10.3x 8.0x 9.6x 10.8x 4.5x 5.8x - - - 7.1x 10.4x - CY+1 4.9x 4.1x 5.6x 10.0x - 9.6x 8.0x - - - - - 6.3x 11.2x 7.8x CY+2 3.8x 3.2x 4.7x 8.1x - 8.4x 5.9x - - - - - 5.4x 10.4x 6.9x EPS LFY 4.05 4.45 3.52 0.82 4.57 4.24 1.31 1.73 0.08 -7.80 -0.10 - 1.54 4.24 6.20 LTM 4.07 4.46 3.52 0.77 4.73 4.34 1.39 1.80 0.10 -3.26 -0.09 - 1.46 4.35 6.34 CY+1 4.67 5.19 3.98 1.03 5.71 3.62 1.45 1.75 - - - - 1.64 4.34 6.81 CY+2 5.39 5.70 4.50 1.27 6.44 3.99 1.76 1.81 - - - - 1.78 4.70 7.58 P/E LFY 9.9x 9.8x 11.8x 25.6x 16.4x 9.8x 17.2x 8.0x 12.0x - - - 8.1x 19.3x 14.4x LTM 9.9x 9.8x 11.8x 25.6x 16.4x 9.8x 17.2x 8.0x 12.0x - - - 8.1x 19.3x 14.4x CY+1 8.6x 8.4x 10.5x 19.2x 13.6x 11.8x 16.5x 8.2x - - - - 7.2x 19.4x 13.4x CY+2 7.4x 7.7x 9.3x 15.5x 12.1x 10.7x 13.6x 8.0x - - - - 6.6x 17.9x 12.0x Revenue Growth 1 Year 17.9% 11.5% 24.4% (5.1%) (0.0%) 0.4% 15.8% 5.1% (6.2%) (12.0%) 29.0% - 5.5% 4.5% (1.7%) 5 Year 13.7% 9.3% 14.2% (0.3%) 5.7% 3.9% 34.5% 0.5% (9.4%) (14.8%) (5.5%) - 14.4% 2.3% 0.4% EBITDA Growth 1 Year 16.0% - - (41.2%) - - (4.7%) 153.1% (31.3%) - (615.6%) - - (1.2%) 0.5% 5 Year 16.1% 4.4% 18.2% (5.3%) 13.8% 8.1% 29.9% 20.4% (26.5%) - - - 26.8% 0.4% 6.1% EBITDA Margin LTM 18.1% 15.8% 17.4% 7.4% 17.2% 30.0% 9.4% 11.4% 3.7% (1.0%) (5.5%) - 20.1% 20.2% - CY+1 17.2% 16.7% 17.6% 9.6% 18.0% 26.4% 11.2% 12.4% - - - - 19.7% 20.5% 19.6% CY+2 17.5% 16.5% 17.9% 10.8% 18.3% 27.5% 12.7% 13.6% - - - - 19.8% 21.1% 20.4% Leverage/Coverage Ratios Total Debt / Equity % 115.9% 0.0% 32.8% 262.6% 129.4% - 7.7% 10.5% 24.6% 10.2% - - 68.5% - 122.4% Total Debt / Capital % 53.7% 0.0% 24.7% 72.2% 56.4% 366.0% 7.2% 9.5% 19.8% 9.3% - - 40.7% 105.2% 55.0% Total Debt / EBITDA 0.663x 0.000x 0.585x 4.008x 1.499x 4.419x 0.140x 0.160x 1.281x - - - 3.289x 2.362x - Net Debt / EBITDA 0.209x -0.774x -0.349x 2.491x 1.239x 4.272x -1.820x -1.620x -0.636x - - - 3.130x 1.969x - EBITDA / Int. Expense 43.967x 9525.556x 55.540x 7.645x 8.822x 9.727x 350.255x 441.315x 20.539x - -4.406x - 7.260x 8.648x 6.622x Credit Ratings S&P LT Credit Rating NR - - BBB- BBB- BB - - - - - - - BBB+ BBB- S&P LT Credit Rating Date 25.03.2011 - - 15.05.2012 30.06.2010 05.01.2007 - - - - - - - 26.09.2011 16.05.2011 Moody's LT Credit Rating WR - - Baa2 Baa3 - - - - - - - - Baa1 Baa3 Moody's LT Credit Rating Date 23.08.2006 - - 28.02.2013 25.05.2011 - - - - - - - - 05.10.2010 16.05.2011 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |