Fundamental Equity Analysis - QMS Gold Miners FlexIndex - The QMS Advisors' G...
Financial analysis paladin energy ltd - paladin energy limited primarily explores for uranium in australia and southern africa
1. 20.02.2013
Company Analysis - Overview
Ticker: PDN AU Paladin Energy Ltd Benchmark:
Currency: ASE: PDN, Currency: AUD S&P/ASX 200 INDEX (AS51) Paladin Energy Limited primarily explores for uranium in Australia and Southern Africa.
Sector: Energy Industry: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Year:
Telephone 61-8-9381-4366 Revenue (M) 355 Business Segments in AUD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in AUD Sales (M)
Website www.paladinresources.com.au No of Employees #N/A N/A Uranium Mining 355 Namibia 232
Address Level 4 502 Hay Street Subiaco, WA 6008 Australia Reconciliation Malawi 123
Share Price Performance in AUD Australia
Price 1.24 1M Return 3.3% Reconciliation
52 Week High 2.01 6M Return -11.4% Namibia
52 Week Low 0.74 52 Wk Return -29.9%
52 Wk Beta 2.47 YTD Return 20.4%
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg -
S&P - Date - Outlook -
Moody's - Date - Outlook -
Fitch - Date - Outlook - 35%
Valuation Ratios
6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13E 6/14E 6/15E
P/E - - - - - 30.4x 14.8x
EV/EBIT - 13'176.3x - - - - -
EV/EBITDA - 124.9x - - 100.0x 12.5x 8.6x 65%
P/S 22.0x 10.5x 7.5x 2.9x 2.6x 2.2x 1.9x
P/B 4.4x 2.4x 1.7x 0.9x 1.0x 1.0x 0.9x
Div Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 100%
Profitability Ratios %
6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13E 6/14E 6/15E
Gross Margin 40.6 24.1 16.7 17.5 - - -
EBITDA Margin -670.9 10.4 -1.1 -37.3 4.4 29.6 37.5
Operating Margin -679.7 0.1 -15.0 -51.3 -23.8 10.9 22.2
Uranium Mining
Profit Margin -429.5 -22.6 -30.8 -47.2 -18.4 4.6 13.1 Namibia Malawi
Return on Assets -23.9 -2.7 -3.8 -7.3 -1.7 2.1 5.3
Return on Equity -53.8 -6.2 -7.6 -14.3 -6.1 1.6 6.3
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12
Current Ratio 2.0 4.2 2.8 1.5 Current Capitalization in AUD
Quick Ratio 0.9 3.0 1.0 0.6 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 835.6
EBIT/Interest -55.9 0.1 -1.1 -5.2 Market Capitalization (M) 1037.8
Tot Debt/Capital 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 Cash and ST Investments (M) 138.9
Tot Debt/Equity 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.7 Total Debt (M) 802.6
Eff Tax Rate % - - - - Preferred Equity (M) 0.0
LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0
Investments (M) 46.9
Enterprise Value (M) 1748.4
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
2. Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
Paladin Energy Ltd
Target price in AUD
Broker Recommendation
Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price
Price
Brokers' Target Price
4 5
100% 5%
9% 10% 13% 13% 9%
17% 17% 14% 17% 17% 5
21% 4
4
80% 3
26% 26% 30% 4
22% 22% 36% 38% 45% 32% 26% 30%
29% 3 3
60%
3
2
2
40% 2 2
61% 61%
55%
61% 61% 61%
55% 57% 1
50% 52% 50% 52% 1
20% 1
1 0
Securities Pty
Genuity Corp
Raymond
BMO Capital
Securities Inc.
Securities Inc.
Partners Ltd
JPMorgan
Securities Corp
Commonwealth
Morgan
RBC Capital
Macquarie
Securities Ltd
Capital Inc
Credit Suisse
Securities
Stanley
Dimensions
Deutsche Bank
CIBC World
Paterson
Paradigm
Octa Phillip
Canaccord
James
Ambrian
Markets
Markets
Argonaut
Haywood
Markets
Cormark
0% 0
EVA
Dundee
Bank
févr.12 mars.12 avr.12 mai.12 juin.12 juil.12 août.12 sept.12 oct.12 nov.12 déc.12 janv.13
Buy Hold Sell Price Target Price
Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date
31-Jan-13 52% 30% 17% 20-Feb-13 1.24 1.64 Deutsche Bank PAUL-D YOUNG hold 1.30 15-Feb-13
31-Dec-12 57% 26% 17% 19-Feb-13 1.21 1.64 JPMorgan MARK BUSUTTIL neutral 1.80 15-Feb-13
30-Nov-12 55% 32% 14% 18-Feb-13 1.20 1.64 Raymond James DAVID SADOWSKI outperform 1.93 15-Feb-13
31-Oct-12 61% 30% 9% 15-Feb-13 1.21 1.63 Dundee Securities Corp DAVID A TALBOT buy 2.31 15-Feb-13
28-Sep-12 61% 26% 13% 14-Feb-13 1.22 1.68 Cormark Securities Inc. MIKE KOZAK speculative buy 2.41 15-Feb-13
31-Aug-12 61% 26% 13% 13-Feb-13 1.15 1.68 Commonwealth Bank ANDREW KNUCKEY underweight 0.95 15-Feb-13
31-Jul-12 50% 45% 5% 12-Feb-13 1.12 1.64 BMO Capital Markets EDWARD STERCK market perform 1.45 14-Feb-13
29-Jun-12 52% 38% 10% 11-Feb-13 1.13 1.64 Morgan Stanley STEFAN HANSEN Equalwt/In-Line 1.35 14-Feb-13
31-May-12 55% 36% 9% 8-Feb-13 1.09 1.64 RBC Capital Markets ADAM SCHATZKER outperform 1.35 14-Feb-13
30-Apr-12 50% 29% 21% 7-Feb-13 1.08 1.64 Credit Suisse RALPH M PROFITI outperform 1.93 14-Feb-13
30-Mar-12 61% 22% 17% 6-Feb-13 1.10 1.64 CIBC World Markets MATTHEW GIBSON sector outperform 3.38 14-Feb-13
29-Feb-12 61% 22% 17% 5-Feb-13 1.11 1.65 Canaccord Genuity Corp OREST WOWKODAW buy 1.69 14-Feb-13
4-Feb-13 1.14 1.65 Haywood Securities Inc. COLIN HEALEY sector outperform 1.93 13-Feb-13
1-Feb-13 1.13 1.65 Paterson Securities SIMON TONKIN hold 1.20 11-Feb-13
31-Jan-13 1.14 1.65 EVA Dimensions CRAIG STERLING underweight 23-Jan-13
30-Jan-13 1.15 1.65 Macquarie MICHAEL BOGUSZ neutral 1.35 18-Jan-13
29-Jan-13 1.16 1.65 Argonaut Securities Pty Ltd TROY IRVIN speculative buy 1.75 17-Jan-13
28-Jan-13 1.12 1.65 Octa Phillip Securities Ltd ANDREW SHEARER buy 1.40 15-Nov-12
25-Jan-13 1.12 1.65 Ambrian Partners Ltd ADAM KILEY hold 1.69 12-Apr-12
24-Jan-13 1.14 1.65 Paradigm Capital Inc DAVID DAVIDSON hold 4.76 16-Nov-10
23-Jan-13 1.18 1.66
22-Jan-13 1.17 1.66
21-Jan-13 1.19 1.66
18-Jan-13 1.20 1.66
17-Jan-13 1.18 1.66
16-Jan-13 1.16 1.67
15-Jan-13 1.12 1.63
14-Jan-13 1.07 1.63
11-Jan-13 1.05 1.62
10-Jan-13 1.03 1.62
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
3. 20.02.2013
Paladin Energy Ltd
Company Analysis - Ownership
Ownership Type
Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution Geographic Ownership
3%
Shares Outstanding (M) 835.6 United States 31.40%
5% 1%
Float 84.8% Australia 30.14% 1%
6%
Short Interest (M) 108.3 35% Singapore 13.89% 32%
Short Interest as % of Float 15.28% Switzerland 10.87%
Days to Cover Shorts 6.84 Unknown Country 6.39%
11%
Institutional Ownership 34.93% Canada 4.83%
Retail Ownership 62.26% Luxembourg 1.05%
Insider Ownership 2.81% 62% Others 1.44%
14%
30%
Institutional Ownership Distribution
Investment Advisor 32.59%
Mutual Fund Manager 21.03%
Corporation 14.16%
United States Australia Singapore
Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership Government 13.85%
Switzerland Unknown Country Canada
Pricing data is in AUD Others 18.37% Luxembourg Others
Top 20 Owners: TOP 20 ALL
Institutional Ownership
Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country
L1 CAPITAL PTY LTD 63'119'387 9'584'967 78'268'040 7.54% 24.08.2012 EXCH AUSTRALIA 18%
NEWMONT MINING CORP 52'097'937 0 64'601'442 6.22% 16.09.2011 Co File UNITED STATES
GOVT OF SINGAPORE IN 50'957'433 8'651'860 63'187'217 6.09% 05.12.2012 ULT-AGG SINGAPORE 33%
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA B 41'932'448 21'028 51'996'236 5.01% 14.02.2012 EXCH AUSTRALIA
UBS 39'980'126 -2'257'895 49'575'356 4.78% 07.05.2012 ULT-AGG
GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT 17'558'695 -416'532 21'772'782 2.10% 28.01.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES
BORSHOFF JOHN 15'877'394 0 19'687'969 1.90% 29.01.2013 EXCH n/a 14%
FMR LLC 14'406'619 273'415 17'864'208 1.72% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES
21%
VANGUARD GROUP INC 8'621'660 219'813 10'690'858 1.03% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV 8'040'918 0 9'970'738 0.96% 31.07.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES 14%
IG INVESTMENT MANAGE 6'537'500 0 8'106'500 0.78% 28.09.2012 MF-AGG CANADA
INVESCO LTD 5'784'204 0 7'172'413 0.69% 19.02.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES
CRABB RICK WAYNE 5'181'528 300'000 6'425'095 0.62% 15.11.2012 PROXY n/a
VANGUARD INVESTMENTS 4'004'702 -31'839 4'965'830 0.48% 30.09.2012 MF-AGG AUSTRALIA Investment Advisor Mutual Fund Manager Corporation
Government Others
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C 3'879'233 0 4'810'249 0.46% 15.02.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES
TD ASSET MANAGEMENT 3'757'200 913'037 4'658'928 0.45% 31.12.2011 MF-AGG CANADA
MANNING & NAPIER ADV 2'564'930 463'070 3'180'513 0.31% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES
CI INVESTMENTS INC 2'290'300 0 2'839'972 0.27% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CANADA
NATIXIS INTERNATIONA 2'238'906 0 2'776'243 0.27% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG LUXEMBOURG
SWABY GILLIAN 2'081'655 -755'000 2'581'252 0.25% 12.09.2011 SEDI n/a
Top 5 Insiders:
Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source
BORSHOFF JOHN 15'877'394 19'687'969 1.90% 29.01.2013 EXCH
CRABB RICK WAYNE 5'181'528 300'000 6'425'095 0.62% 15.11.2012 Proxy
SWABY GILLIAN 2'081'655 -755'000 2'581'252 0.25% 12.09.2011 SEDI
SHUMKA DONALD M 200'000 100'000 248'000 0.02% 16.11.2012 SEDI
LLEWELYN SEAN REVEILLE 100'000 124'000 0.01% 11.10.2012 Proxy
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |