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20.02.2013



                                                                                          Company Analysis - Overview
Ticker:                   PDN AU             Paladin Energy Ltd                                              Benchmark:
Currency:                                    ASE: PDN, Currency: AUD                                         S&P/ASX 200 INDEX (AS51)                    Paladin Energy Limited primarily explores for uranium in Australia and Southern Africa.

Sector: Energy       Industry: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels                                                      Year:
Telephone         61-8-9381-4366                       Revenue (M)                                    355    Business Segments in AUD                            Sales (M)    Geographic Segments in AUD                              Sales (M)
Website           www.paladinresources.com.au          No of Employees                           #N/A N/A    Uranium Mining                                            355    Namibia                                                       232
Address           Level 4 502 Hay Street Subiaco, WA 6008 Australia                                          Reconciliation                                                   Malawi                                                        123
Share Price Performance in AUD                                                                                                                                                Australia
Price                                 1.24             1M Return                                     3.3%                                                                     Reconciliation
52 Week High                          2.01             6M Return                                   -11.4%                                                                     Namibia
52 Week Low                           0.74             52 Wk Return                                -29.9%
52 Wk Beta                            2.47             YTD Return                                   20.4%
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg                    -
S&P                          -       Date                -                         Outlook               -
Moody's                      -       Date                -                         Outlook               -
Fitch                        -       Date                -                         Outlook               -                                                                                 35%
Valuation Ratios
                         6/09        6/10        6/11        6/12         6/13E         6/14E       6/15E
P/E                          -           -           -           -             -        30.4x       14.8x
EV/EBIT                      -   13'176.3x           -           -             -             -           -
EV/EBITDA                    -      124.9x           -           -       100.0x         12.5x         8.6x                                                                                                                 65%
P/S                      22.0x       10.5x        7.5x        2.9x          2.6x          2.2x        1.9x
P/B                       4.4x        2.4x        1.7x        0.9x          1.0x          1.0x        0.9x
Div Yield                0.0%        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%          0.0%          0.1%        0.1%                               100%
Profitability Ratios %
                        6/09         6/10        6/11        6/12        6/13E          6/14E       6/15E
Gross Margin            40.6          24.1        16.7        17.5            -             -           -
EBITDA Margin         -670.9          10.4        -1.1       -37.3          4.4          29.6        37.5
Operating Margin      -679.7           0.1       -15.0       -51.3        -23.8          10.9        22.2
                                                                                                                                     Uranium Mining
Profit Margin         -429.5         -22.6       -30.8       -47.2        -18.4           4.6        13.1                                                                                            Namibia          Malawi
Return on Assets       -23.9          -2.7        -3.8        -7.3         -1.7           2.1         5.3
Return on Equity       -53.8          -6.2        -7.6       -14.3         -6.1           1.6         6.3
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
                        6/09         6/10        6/11        6/12
Current Ratio             2.0         4.2          2.8         1.5                                           Current Capitalization in AUD
Quick Ratio               0.9         3.0          1.0         0.6                                           Common Shares Outstanding (M)                                                                           835.6
EBIT/Interest          -55.9          0.1         -1.1        -5.2                                           Market Capitalization (M)                                                                              1037.8
Tot Debt/Capital          0.5         0.4          0.3         0.4                                           Cash and ST Investments (M)                                                                             138.9
Tot Debt/Equity           0.9         0.8          0.5         0.7                                           Total Debt (M)                                                                                          802.6
Eff Tax Rate %              -           -            -           -                                           Preferred Equity (M)                                                                                      0.0
                                                                                                             LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M)                                                                 0.0
                                                                                                             Investments (M)                                                                                          46.9
                                                                                                             Enterprise Value (M)                                                                                   1748.4



                                                                                   Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
Paladin Energy Ltd
Target price in AUD
Broker Recommendation




                                                              Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price




                                                                                                                                                                     Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Brokers' Target Price
                                                                                                                                                                 4           5
                        100%                                                       5%
                                                                9%       10%                  13%         13%         9%
                                  17%       17%                                                                                    14%        17%      17%                   5
                                                      21%                                                                                                        4
                                                                                                                                                                             4
                        80%                                                                                                                                      3
                                                                                              26%         26%         30%                                                    4
                                  22%       22%                36%       38%       45%                                             32%        26%      30%
                                                      29%                                                                                                        3           3
                        60%
                                                                                                                                                                             3
                                                                                                                                                                 2
                                                                                                                                                                             2
                        40%                                                                                                                                      2           2
                                  61%       61%
                                                               55%
                                                                                              61%         61%         61%
                                                                                                                                   55%        57%                            1
                                                      50%                52%       50%                                                                 52%       1
                        20%                                                                                                                                                  1
                                                                                                                                                                 1           0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Securities Pty
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Genuity Corp
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Raymond




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           BMO Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Securities Inc.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Securities Inc.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Partners Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                   JPMorgan




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Securities Corp



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Commonwealth




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Morgan

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   RBC Capital




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Macquarie




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Securities Ltd




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Capital Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Credit Suisse




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Securities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Stanley




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Dimensions
                                                                                                                                                                                   Deutsche Bank




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 CIBC World




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Paterson




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Paradigm
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Octa Phillip
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Canaccord
                                                                                                                                                                                                               James




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Ambrian
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Markets




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Argonaut
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Haywood
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Cormark
                         0%                                                                                                                                      0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               EVA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dundee




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Bank
                                févr.12    mars.12   avr.12   mai.12    juin.12   juil.12   août.12      sept.12     oct.12      nov.12      déc.12   janv.13
                                                                       Buy        Hold            Sell       Price            Target Price

                               Date                    Buy              Hold                Sell                        Date              Price Target Price                 Broker                                                                             Analyst                                                                         Recommendation                                                       Target                                            Date
                               31-Jan-13                52%              30%                17%                      20-Feb-13               1.24         1.64               Deutsche Bank                                                                      PAUL-D YOUNG                                                                                         hold                                                       1.30                            15-Feb-13
                               31-Dec-12                57%              26%                17%                      19-Feb-13               1.21         1.64               JPMorgan                                                                           MARK BUSUTTIL                                                                                      neutral                                                      1.80                            15-Feb-13
                               30-Nov-12                55%              32%                14%                      18-Feb-13               1.20         1.64               Raymond James                                                                      DAVID SADOWSKI                                                                                   outperform                                                     1.93                            15-Feb-13
                               31-Oct-12                61%              30%                 9%                      15-Feb-13               1.21         1.63               Dundee Securities Corp                                                             DAVID A TALBOT                                                                                       buy                                                        2.31                            15-Feb-13
                               28-Sep-12                61%              26%                13%                      14-Feb-13               1.22         1.68               Cormark Securities Inc.                                                            MIKE KOZAK                                                                                     speculative buy                                                  2.41                            15-Feb-13
                               31-Aug-12                61%              26%                13%                      13-Feb-13               1.15         1.68               Commonwealth Bank                                                                  ANDREW KNUCKEY                                                                                  underweight                                                     0.95                            15-Feb-13
                               31-Jul-12                50%              45%                 5%                      12-Feb-13               1.12         1.64               BMO Capital Markets                                                                EDWARD STERCK                                                                                  market perform                                                   1.45                            14-Feb-13
                               29-Jun-12                52%              38%                10%                      11-Feb-13               1.13         1.64               Morgan Stanley                                                                     STEFAN HANSEN                                                                                  Equalwt/In-Line                                                  1.35                            14-Feb-13
                               31-May-12                55%              36%                 9%                       8-Feb-13               1.09         1.64               RBC Capital Markets                                                                ADAM SCHATZKER                                                                                   outperform                                                     1.35                            14-Feb-13
                               30-Apr-12                50%              29%                21%                       7-Feb-13               1.08         1.64               Credit Suisse                                                                      RALPH M PROFITI                                                                                  outperform                                                     1.93                            14-Feb-13
                               30-Mar-12                61%              22%                17%                       6-Feb-13               1.10         1.64               CIBC World Markets                                                                 MATTHEW GIBSON                                                                                sector outperform                                                 3.38                            14-Feb-13
                               29-Feb-12                61%              22%                17%                       5-Feb-13               1.11         1.65               Canaccord Genuity Corp                                                             OREST WOWKODAW                                                                                       buy                                                        1.69                            14-Feb-13
                                                                                                                      4-Feb-13               1.14         1.65               Haywood Securities Inc.                                                            COLIN HEALEY                                                                                  sector outperform                                                 1.93                            13-Feb-13
                                                                                                                      1-Feb-13               1.13         1.65               Paterson Securities                                                                SIMON TONKIN                                                                                         hold                                                       1.20                            11-Feb-13
                                                                                                                     31-Jan-13               1.14         1.65               EVA Dimensions                                                                     CRAIG STERLING                                                                                  underweight                                                                                     23-Jan-13
                                                                                                                     30-Jan-13               1.15         1.65               Macquarie                                                                          MICHAEL BOGUSZ                                                                                     neutral                                                      1.35                            18-Jan-13
                                                                                                                     29-Jan-13               1.16         1.65               Argonaut Securities Pty Ltd                                                        TROY IRVIN                                                                                     speculative buy                                                  1.75                            17-Jan-13
                                                                                                                     28-Jan-13               1.12         1.65               Octa Phillip Securities Ltd                                                        ANDREW SHEARER                                                                                       buy                                                        1.40                            15-Nov-12
                                                                                                                     25-Jan-13               1.12         1.65               Ambrian Partners Ltd                                                               ADAM KILEY                                                                                           hold                                                       1.69                            12-Apr-12
                                                                                                                     24-Jan-13               1.14         1.65               Paradigm Capital Inc                                                               DAVID DAVIDSON                                                                                       hold                                                       4.76                            16-Nov-10
                                                                                                                     23-Jan-13               1.18         1.66
                                                                                                                     22-Jan-13               1.17         1.66
                                                                                                                     21-Jan-13               1.19         1.66
                                                                                                                     18-Jan-13               1.20         1.66
                                                                                                                     17-Jan-13               1.18         1.66
                                                                                                                     16-Jan-13               1.16         1.67
                                                                                                                     15-Jan-13               1.12         1.63
                                                                                                                     14-Jan-13               1.07         1.63
                                                                                                                     11-Jan-13               1.05         1.62
                                                                                                                     10-Jan-13               1.03         1.62

                                                                                                                Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
20.02.2013



Paladin Energy Ltd
                                                                              Company Analysis - Ownership
                                                                                     Ownership Type
Ownership Statistics                                                                                                                  Geographic Ownership Distribution                                           Geographic Ownership
                                                                                          3%
Shares Outstanding (M)                          835.6                                                                                 United States                             31.40%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5%     1%
Float                                           84.8%                                                                                 Australia                                 30.14%                                             1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  6%
Short Interest (M)                              108.3                                                       35%                       Singapore                                 13.89%                                                        32%
Short Interest as % of Float                   15.28%                                                                                 Switzerland                               10.87%
Days to Cover Shorts                              6.84                                                                                Unknown Country                           6.39%
                                                                                                                                                                                                        11%
Institutional Ownership                        34.93%                                                                                 Canada                                    4.83%
Retail Ownership                               62.26%                                                                                 Luxembourg                                1.05%
Insider Ownership                               2.81%                  62%                                                            Others                                    1.44%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            14%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        30%
                                                                                                                                      Institutional Ownership Distribution
                                                                                                                                      Investment Advisor                        32.59%
                                                                                                                                      Mutual Fund Manager                       21.03%
                                                                                                                                      Corporation                               14.16%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      United States        Australia           Singapore
                                                           Institutional Ownership      Retail Ownership   Insider Ownership          Government                                13.85%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Switzerland          Unknown Country     Canada
Pricing data is in AUD                                                                                                                Others                                    18.37%                Luxembourg           Others
Top 20 Owners:                 TOP 20 ALL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Institutional Ownership
Holder Name                                    Position   Position Change                      Market Value          % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source       Country
L1 CAPITAL PTY LTD                          63'119'387           9'584'967                      78'268'040                7.54%                      24.08.2012     EXCH      AUSTRALIA                                18%
NEWMONT MINING CORP                         52'097'937                   0                      64'601'442                6.22%                      16.09.2011    Co File   UNITED STATES
GOVT OF SINGAPORE IN                        50'957'433           8'651'860                      63'187'217                6.09%                      05.12.2012   ULT-AGG     SINGAPORE                                                       33%
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA B                        41'932'448              21'028                      51'996'236                5.01%                      14.02.2012     EXCH      AUSTRALIA
UBS                                         39'980'126          -2'257'895                      49'575'356                4.78%                      07.05.2012   ULT-AGG
GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT                         17'558'695            -416'532                      21'772'782                2.10%                      28.01.2013   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
BORSHOFF JOHN                               15'877'394                   0                      19'687'969                1.90%                      29.01.2013     EXCH          n/a                     14%
FMR LLC                                     14'406'619             273'415                      17'864'208                1.72%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             21%
VANGUARD GROUP INC                           8'621'660             219'813                      10'690'858                1.03%                      31.12.2012   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV                         8'040'918                   0                       9'970'738                0.96%                      31.07.2012   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES                             14%
IG INVESTMENT MANAGE                         6'537'500                   0                       8'106'500                0.78%                      28.09.2012   MF-AGG       CANADA
INVESCO LTD                                  5'784'204                   0                       7'172'413                0.69%                      19.02.2013   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
CRABB RICK WAYNE                             5'181'528             300'000                       6'425'095                0.62%                      15.11.2012    PROXY          n/a
VANGUARD INVESTMENTS                         4'004'702             -31'839                       4'965'830                0.48%                      30.09.2012   MF-AGG      AUSTRALIA      Investment Advisor        Mutual Fund Manager    Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                             Government                Others
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C                         3'879'233                   0                       4'810'249                0.46%                      15.02.2013   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
TD ASSET MANAGEMENT                          3'757'200             913'037                       4'658'928                0.45%                      31.12.2011   MF-AGG       CANADA
MANNING & NAPIER ADV                         2'564'930             463'070                       3'180'513                0.31%                      31.12.2012   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
CI INVESTMENTS INC                           2'290'300                   0                       2'839'972                0.27%                      30.06.2012   MF-AGG       CANADA
NATIXIS INTERNATIONA                         2'238'906                   0                       2'776'243                0.27%                      31.12.2012   MF-AGG     LUXEMBOURG
SWABY GILLIAN                                2'081'655            -755'000                       2'581'252                0.25%                      12.09.2011     SEDI          n/a
Top 5 Insiders:


Holder Name                                   Position    Position Change                      Market Value          % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source
BORSHOFF JOHN                               15'877'394                                             19'687'969              1.90%                     29.01.2013     EXCH
CRABB RICK WAYNE                             5'181'528             300'000                          6'425'095              0.62%                     15.11.2012     Proxy
SWABY GILLIAN                                2'081'655            -755'000                          2'581'252              0.25%                     12.09.2011     SEDI
SHUMKA DONALD M                                200'000             100'000                            248'000              0.02%                     16.11.2012     SEDI
LLEWELYN SEAN REVEILLE                         100'000                                                124'000              0.01%                     11.10.2012     Proxy




                                                                               Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV
Paladin Energy Ltd
Financial information is in AUD (M)                                                                                                                                               Equivalent Estimates
Periodicity:             Fiscal Year                  6/02          6/03    6/04       6/05         6/06        6/07         6/08        6/09        6/10     6/11     6/12    6/13E        6/14E        6/15E
Income Statement
Revenue                                                                        0           0           0           4          105         152         229      271      355      397          475         544
  - Cost of Goods Sold                                                                                            15           74          90         174      225      293

Gross Income                                                                                                      -11          31           62         55       45       62
  - Selling, General & Admin Expenses                     1            1       1         10           13           44          50        1'095         55       86      245
          (Research & Dev Costs)                                               0          0            0            0           0            0          0        0        0

Operating Income                                         -1            -1     -1         -10         -12          -55         -18       -1'033          0      -41     -182      -94           52         121
  - Interest Expense                                      0             0      0           0           0           15          21           18          5       37       35
  - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)                       0             0      0           0          -1            1           4           -1          6        6       -1
  - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)                      1            -0     -1          -1          -4           -8           7           56         10       23       55

Pretax Income                                            -2            -1      0         -10          -7          -63         -49       -1'106        -20     -107     -271      -96           37         103
  - Income Tax Expense                                    0             0      0           0           0          -15          -8         -322         32      -17      -76

Income Before XO Items                                   -2            -1      0         -10          -7          -48         -42        -784         -53      -90     -195
   - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax                        0             0      0          -0           0            0           0           0           0        0        0
   - Minority Interests                                   0             0      0           0           0           -1          -1        -131          -1       -6      -27

Diluted EPS Before XO Items                                                 0.00      (0.03)       (0.02)      (0.09)       (0.07)      (1.06)      (0.07)   (0.11)   (0.20)

Net Income Adjusted*                                                                                              -21          -38       -653          -54      -72      -31      -73           22          71
EPS Adjusted                                                                                                   (0.04)       (0.06)      (1.06)      (0.08)   (0.10)   (0.04)   (0.08)        0.04        0.08
Dividends Per Share                                   0.00          0.00    0.00       0.00         0.00        0.00         0.00        0.00        0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00         0.00        0.00
        Payout Ratio %                                                       0.0                                                                                                             0.02        0.01

Total Shares Outstanding                               227           266     334        401          454         602          613         624         717      778      836
Diluted Shares Outstanding                             211           208     288        363          433         511          608         618         697      744      820

EBITDA                                                   -1            -0     -1         -10         -12          -52          -6       -1'020         24       -3     -132       18          140         204

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.




                                                                            Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV
Periodicity:                           6/02    6/03    6/04        6/05         6/06        6/07         6/08        6/09           6/10       6/11        6/12   6/13E   6/14E   6/15E
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets                   0.497   1.426   5.802      40.057      63.473 274.555935 468.073989 225.386997           609.30672 307.563025 382.608696
  + Cash & Near Cash Items                 0       0       5          39          60        215        353         82                 411        110        110
  + Short Term Investments                 0       0       0           0           0          0          0          0                   0          0          0
  + Accounts & Notes Receivable            0       0       0           0           0          4         30         16                  17          0         51
  + Inventories                            0       0       0           0           0         45         72        106                 129        166        182
  + Other Current Assets                   0       1       1           1           4         11         13         21                  53         32         40

Total Long-Term Assets                    5       4       5            5          97        2'147       2'210        1'587          1'725      1'937      1'911
  + Long Term Investments                 1       1       1            0           0           71           0           86             42         39         15
         Gross Fixed Assets               2       1       1            2          82          163         265          663          1'649      1'864      1'904
         Accumulated Depreciation         1       1       0            1           1            4          12           28             48         77        220
  + Net Fixed Assets                      2       0       0            1          80          159         253          634          1'601      1'788      1'684
  + Other Long Term Assets                3       3       4            4          16        1'917       1'958          867             82        110        212

Total Current Liabilities                 0       1       1            1          12          36           57         113            143        111         248
  + Accounts Payable                      0       0       1            1          11          16           43          83             75         65          66
  + Short Term Borrowings                 0       1       1            1           0           7           11          18             57         41         179
  + Other Short Term Liabilities          0       0       0            0           1          13            2          12             12          5           3

Total Long Term Liabilities               1       0       0            0          24         847        1'128         918           1'045       868         878
  + Long Term Borrowings                  1       0       0            0          19         315          597         708             806       631         640
  + Other Long Term Borrowings            0       0       0            0           5         532          531         209             239       237         238

Total Liabilities                          1       1       1           1          36          882       1'185        1'031          1'188        979      1'126
  + Long Preferred Equity                  0       0       0           0           0            0           0            0              0          0          0
  + Minority Interest                      0       0       0           0           0          217         217           85             86         78         51
  + Share Capital & APIC                  19      19      24          66         148        1'265       1'138        1'377          1'742      1'651      1'797
  + Retained Earnings & Other Equity     -14     -15     -15         -22         -23           57         139         -680           -681       -464       -681

Total Shareholders Equity                 5       4       9          44          125        1'539       1'494         782           1'147      1'265      1'167

Total Liabilities & Equity                6       6      11          45          160        2'421       2'679        1'812          2'335      2'244      2'294

Book Value Per Share                    0.02    0.02    0.03        0.11        0.27         2.19        2.08         1.12           1.48       1.53       1.34    1.28    1.28    1.35
  Tangible Book Value Per Share         0.02    0.02    0.03        0.11        0.27         2.16        2.05         1.07           1.44       1.50       1.31




                                                        Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV
Periodicity:                           6/02   6/03   6/04       6/05         6/06        6/07         6/08        6/09       6/10    6/11    6/12    6/13E   6/14E   6/15E
Cash Flows
Net Income                               -2     -1      0          -9           -7         -48         -40        -653        -52     -83    -168     -131     23      71
  + Depreciation & Amortization           0      0      0           0            0           3          12          13         24      38      50
  + Other Non-Cash Adjustments            2      0     -1           8            7           3          35         648         42      52     135
  + Changes in Non-Cash Capital          -0      0      0          -0            1          -7         -28         -19        -53    -110    -140

Cash From Operating Activities           -0     -0     -0          -1           1          -49         -21         -11        -39    -103    -122
  + Disposal of Fixed Assets              0      0      0           1           0            0           2           0          0      12       0
  + Capital Expenditures                 -0      0     -0          -1         -71         -113        -111        -323       -202    -149     -80      -36     -28     -61
  + Increase in Investments              -0      0      0           0          -1          -17         -20         -16         -2       0       0
  + Decrease in Investments               0      0      1           0           0            1           0           0          0       3       0
  + Other Investing Activities           -0     -0     -1          -5          -5          -26         -40         -12                 -1

Cash From Investing Activities           -1     -0     -0          -5         -76         -155        -169        -351       -204    -134     -80
  + Dividends Paid                        0      0      0           0           0            0           0           0          0       0       0
  + Change in Short Term Borrowings       0      0      0                       0
  + Increase in Long Term Borrowings      0      0      0          1           23         382          368            0       165     316     402
  + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings     -0      0     -0         -1           -1           0           -5          -17        -7    -309    -260
  + Increase in Capital Stocks            1      0      5         41           76           9           12            8       414       1      61
  + Decrease in Capital Stocks            0      0      0          0            0           0            0                      0       0       0
  + Other Financing Activities            0      0     -0          0           -3          -9          -12           1         -7      -4      -6

Cash From Financing Activities           1      0      5          41           96         382          362           -8       564       4     197

Net Changes in Cash                      -0     -0     5          35           20         177          173        -369        321    -234       -5

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX)               -1     -0     -0          -2         -71         -162        -132        -333       -241    -252    -202      33      85      76

Free Cash Flow To Firm                                 -0
Free Cash Flow To Equity                 -1     -0     -0          -1          -48        219         233          -350        -84    -234     -59
Free Cash Flow per Share               0.00   0.00   0.00       -0.01        -0.16       -0.32       -0.22        -0.54      -0.35   -0.34   -0.25




                                                     Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV
Periodicity:                          6/02     6/03     6/04        6/05         6/06        6/07         6/08        6/09           6/10     6/11     6/12    6/13E    6/14E   6/15E
Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios
  Price Earnings                                       192.9x                                                                                                           30.4x   14.8x
  EV to EBIT                                                                                                                     13'176.3x
  EV to EBITDA                                                                                                                      124.9x                     100.0x   12.5x     8.6x
  Price to Sales                                                                          1'087.7x       39.8x        22.0x          10.5x     7.5x     2.9x     2.6x    2.2x     1.9x
  Price to Book                        1.5x     0.7x     4.8x       10.7x       15.0x         3.8x        3.1x         4.4x           2.4x     1.7x     0.9x     1.0x    1.0x     0.9x
  Dividend Yield                      0.0%     0.0%     0.0%        0.0%        0.0%         0.0%        0.0%         0.0%           0.0%     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%    0.1%     0.1%

Profitability Ratios
  Gross Margin                                                                            -263.6%        29.2%       40.6%          24.1%     16.7%    17.5%
  EBITDA Margin                                                                          -1245.5%        -5.5%     -670.9%          10.4%     -1.1%   -37.3%     4.4%   29.6%   37.5%
  Operating Margin                                                                       -1309.1%       -17.2%     -679.7%           0.1%    -15.0%   -51.3%   -23.8%   10.9%   22.2%
  Profit Margin                                                                          -1139.4%       -38.4%     -429.5%         -22.6%    -30.8%   -47.2%   -18.4%    4.6%   13.1%
  Return on Assets                   -34.9%   -10.0%    2.3%       -33.5%       -7.3%       -3.5%        -1.6%      -23.9%          -2.7%     -3.8%    -7.3%    -1.7%    2.1%    5.3%
  Return on Equity                   -41.3%   -12.6%    2.7%       -35.2%       -8.9%       -6.2%        -3.1%      -53.8%          -6.2%     -7.6%   -14.3%    -6.1%    1.6%    6.3%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios
  Current Ratio                        1.85     1.11     4.40       30.23        5.45         7.73        8.28         1.99          4.25      2.77     1.54
  Quick Ratio                          1.07     0.09     3.53       29.81        5.13         6.16        6.77         0.87          2.98      0.99     0.65
  Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)   -13.10    -8.87   -17.95      -27.88      -83.36        -3.63       -0.88       -55.88          0.05     -1.10    -5.16
  Tot Debt/Capital                     0.14     0.14     0.07        0.01        0.13         0.17        0.29         0.48          0.43      0.35     0.41
  Tot Debt/Equity                      0.16     0.17     0.08        0.01        0.16         0.21        0.41         0.93          0.75      0.53     0.70

Others
  Asset Turnover                       0.00     0.00     0.00        0.00        0.00         0.00        0.04         0.06          0.12      0.12     0.15
  Accounts Receivable Turnover                           0.00        0.00        0.00         2.00        5.86         5.34         14.74     37.58    14.07
  Accounts Payable Turnover                                                                   4.54        3.53         1.54          2.71      4.37     4.54
  Inventory Turnover                                                                          0.63        1.24         0.86          1.57      1.55     1.66

  Effective Tax Rate                                    0.0%




                                                         Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Peers Comparision
                                                                                              DENISON MINES        URANIUM ONE                                                                     FORTESCUE         MOUNT GIBSON
                                         PALADIN ENERGY ENERGY RES AUST      CAMECO CORP                                             BHP BILLITON LTD    ALUMINA LTD          ILUKA RESOURCES
                                                                                                   CO                  INC                                                                          METALS               IRO

Latest Fiscal Year:                             06/2012         12/2012            12/2012           12/2011             12/2011             06/2012            12/2011               12/2011            06/2012           06/2012
52-Week High                                         2.01            1.83             26.43               1.74                3.45              39.34                1.41                18.40                6.18              1.32
52-Week High Date                             14.03.2012      03.05.2012         22.02.2012        23.02.2012          29.02.2012          20.02.2013         14.02.2013            02.04.2012         22.03.2012        24.02.2012
52-Week Low                                          0.74            1.09             16.50               1.04                1.78              30.09                0.63                  7.36               2.81              0.62
52-Week Low Date                              16.11.2012      10.12.2012         16.11.2012        15.11.2012          07.12.2012          12.07.2012         18.07.2012            19.11.2012         06.09.2012        29.11.2012
Daily Volume                                  10'509'581       1'865'307            466'924            46'713             153'732          13'806'043         20'974'288             6'222'607         25'745'397        12'356'513
  Current Price (2/dd/yy)                           1.24            1.41             22.94                1.34               2.73              38.65                 1.25                10.35               4.92              0.82
  52-Week High % Change                           -38.3%          -23.0%            -13.2%             -23.1%              -20.9%                -1.8%            -11.0%                -43.8%             -20.4%            -37.9%
  52-Week Low % Change                             67.6%           29.5%             39.0%              28.8%               53.4%               28.4%             100.0%                 40.6%              75.1%             33.3%
Total Common Shares (M)                            835.6           517.7             395.4              384.7               957.2             5'297.6            2'440.2                 416.4            3'113.8           1'085.5
  Market Capitalization                         1'037.8           727.4            9'069.3             532.8             2'613.1          192'806.5             3'507.8               4'333.6          15'319.9              894.3
Total Debt                                         838.5            -              1'530.0                0.2              782.8            28'330.0               490.6                164.0             8'501.0             47.0
Preferred Stock                                      -              -                  -                  -                  -                   -                   -                    -                   -                -
Minority Interest                                   52.4            -                  0.6                -                  -               1'215.0                 -                    -                   -                -
Cash and Equivalents                               112.1          467.3              799.4               53.5              619.0             4'781.0                19.0                320.7             2'343.0             40.7
   Enterprise Value                             1'804.3           260.1            9'800.6             483.7             2'975.7          229'982.0             4'210.9               4'450.8          26'490.6              900.6
                                                                                                                                                           Valuation
Total Revenue                      LFY             365.8          422.8            2'321.5               96.8              530.4            72'226.0                  0.0              1'536.7           6'681.0             637.0
                                  LTM              324.1          422.8            2'321.5               67.3              493.2            66'950.0                  -                1'629.3           6'625.1             671.4
                                 CY+1              408.5          397.0            2'612.5               38.1              532.0            69'060.4                  0.1              1'074.2           8'287.8             886.9
                                 CY+2              489.1          345.7            2'830.4               17.2              657.2            75'838.5                  0.2              1'004.6          11'721.2             719.8
EV/Total Revenue                   LFY               5.0x            0.4x              3.7x                5.5x              5.1x                3.3x             #DIV/0!                  3.1x              3.9x               1.5x
                                  LTM                5.6x            0.4x              3.7x                7.9x              5.5x                3.5x                     -                3.0x              3.9x               1.5x
                                 CY+1                3.8x            0.9x              3.9x              12.9x               5.5x                3.3x           37093.8x                   4.2x              3.1x               0.6x
                                 CY+2                3.1x            1.0x              3.6x              25.2x               4.6x                3.0x           24272.7x                   4.4x              2.2x               0.6x
EBITDA                             LFY            (136.4)           86.4             729.0                 0.7             331.7            33'421.0                      -            1'012.6           2'830.0             538.1
                                  LTM             (134.0)           86.4             729.0               13.7              200.4            22'246.0                     -             1'235.2           2'304.2             538.1
                                 CY+1               18.0            72.8             777.4                (1.9)            244.6            29'441.0                (22.1)               714.6           3'087.7             394.7
                                 CY+2              144.6            63.3             901.9              (23.4)             361.5            34'978.0                 10.7                492.6           4'429.2             324.3
EV/EBITDA                          LFY             -13.3x            2.2x             11.6x            722.8x                8.1x                7.1x                     -                4.8x              9.1x               1.7x
                                  LTM                    -           2.2x             11.6x              38.9x              13.4x               10.6x                     -                3.9x             11.2x               1.7x
                                 CY+1               85.8x            5.0x             13.1x                    -            12.1x                7.7x                     -                6.3x              8.4x               1.4x
                                 CY+2               10.5x            5.5x             11.3x                    -             8.4x                6.4x              357.1x                  8.9x              5.7x               1.3x
EPS                                LFY              -0.05                -             0.99              -0.10               0.11                3.61                     -                1.24              0.50              0.16
                                  LTM               -0.11           -0.42              0.99              -0.19               0.05                1.83                 0.02                 1.61              0.40              0.08
                                 CY+1              (0.08)          (0.27)             1.18              (0.05)              0.04                2.56                (0.02)                0.91              0.48              0.15
                                 CY+2               0.04           (0.24)             1.33              (0.05)              0.12                3.03                (0.01)                0.55              0.71              0.13
P/E                                LFY                   -               -            23.2x                    -            53.7x               21.8x                71.4x                 6.4x             12.7x             10.0x
                                  LTM                    -               -            23.2x                    -            53.7x               12.7x                     -                    -                 -                 -
                                 CY+1                    -               -            19.4x                    -            61.0x               15.5x                     -               11.3x             10.6x               5.6x
                                 CY+2               30.4x                -            17.3x                    -            22.2x               13.1x                     -               19.0x              7.2x               6.2x
Revenue Growth                  1 Year             37.1%         (35.1%)             (2.6%)           (24.6%)              62.3%                0.7%                      -              73.3%             22.8%             (1.6%)
                                5 Year             33.8%            5.0%             15.5%              58.9%             178.8%                6.8%                      -              26.1%                   -           20.4%
EBITDA Growth                   1 Year         (4603.4%)                 -           (9.3%)           (98.3%)             162.0%             (12.1%)                      -             242.7%              2.1%               3.2%
                                5 Year                   -       (11.1%)             (4.1%)                    -                 -              8.0%                      -              30.8%                   -           38.7%
EBITDA Margin                     LTM            (41.3%)           20.4%             31.4%              20.3%              40.6%               33.2%                      -              75.8%             34.8%             84.5%
                                 CY+1               4.4%           18.3%             29.8%             (5.0%)              46.0%               42.6%          (19248.7%)                 66.5%             37.3%             44.5%
                                 CY+2              29.6%           18.3%             31.9%           (135.7%)              55.0%               46.1%             6797.5%                 49.0%             37.8%             45.1%
                                                                                                                                                  Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Total Debt / Equity %                             73.4%             0.0%             30.9%               0.0%              39.3%               43.0%               17.2%                10.7%             226.0%               3.7%    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Total Debt / Capital %                            41.2%             0.0%             23.6%               0.0%              28.2%               29.7%               14.7%                  9.7%             69.3%               3.6%    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Total Debt / EBITDA                                    -          0.000x             2.099x            0.020x              4.231x              1.595x                   -               0.120x             5.541x            0.087x    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Net Debt / EBITDA                                      -         -5.411x             1.002x           -2.959x              2.023x              1.366x                   -               0.095x             4.655x            0.012x    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
EBITDA / Int. Expense                            -3.747x          2.931x             9.073x           19.316x              6.728x             44.266x                   -              83.686x             3.871x           85.257x    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
                                                                                                                                                         Credit Ratings
S&P LT Credit Rating                                    -               -             BBB+                    -               BB-                  A+              BBB-                       -               BB-                 -    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
S&P LT Credit Rating Date                                -               -       19.12.2003                    -       11.11.2011          15.11.2010         29.08.2012                       -       28.09.2012                  -    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Moody's LT Credit Rating                                -               -               WR                    -                 -               (P)A1                  -                      -                 -                 -    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date                            -               -       17.01.2006                    -                 -         15.11.2010                   -                      -                 -                 -    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE    FALSE



                                                                                                                               Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

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Financial analysis paladin energy ltd - paladin energy limited primarily explores for uranium in australia and southern africa

  • 1. 20.02.2013 Company Analysis - Overview Ticker: PDN AU Paladin Energy Ltd Benchmark: Currency: ASE: PDN, Currency: AUD S&P/ASX 200 INDEX (AS51) Paladin Energy Limited primarily explores for uranium in Australia and Southern Africa. Sector: Energy Industry: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Year: Telephone 61-8-9381-4366 Revenue (M) 355 Business Segments in AUD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in AUD Sales (M) Website www.paladinresources.com.au No of Employees #N/A N/A Uranium Mining 355 Namibia 232 Address Level 4 502 Hay Street Subiaco, WA 6008 Australia Reconciliation Malawi 123 Share Price Performance in AUD Australia Price 1.24 1M Return 3.3% Reconciliation 52 Week High 2.01 6M Return -11.4% Namibia 52 Week Low 0.74 52 Wk Return -29.9% 52 Wk Beta 2.47 YTD Return 20.4% Credit Ratings Bloomberg - S&P - Date - Outlook - Moody's - Date - Outlook - Fitch - Date - Outlook - 35% Valuation Ratios 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13E 6/14E 6/15E P/E - - - - - 30.4x 14.8x EV/EBIT - 13'176.3x - - - - - EV/EBITDA - 124.9x - - 100.0x 12.5x 8.6x 65% P/S 22.0x 10.5x 7.5x 2.9x 2.6x 2.2x 1.9x P/B 4.4x 2.4x 1.7x 0.9x 1.0x 1.0x 0.9x Div Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 100% Profitability Ratios % 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13E 6/14E 6/15E Gross Margin 40.6 24.1 16.7 17.5 - - - EBITDA Margin -670.9 10.4 -1.1 -37.3 4.4 29.6 37.5 Operating Margin -679.7 0.1 -15.0 -51.3 -23.8 10.9 22.2 Uranium Mining Profit Margin -429.5 -22.6 -30.8 -47.2 -18.4 4.6 13.1 Namibia Malawi Return on Assets -23.9 -2.7 -3.8 -7.3 -1.7 2.1 5.3 Return on Equity -53.8 -6.2 -7.6 -14.3 -6.1 1.6 6.3 Leverage and Coverage Ratios 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 Current Ratio 2.0 4.2 2.8 1.5 Current Capitalization in AUD Quick Ratio 0.9 3.0 1.0 0.6 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 835.6 EBIT/Interest -55.9 0.1 -1.1 -5.2 Market Capitalization (M) 1037.8 Tot Debt/Capital 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 Cash and ST Investments (M) 138.9 Tot Debt/Equity 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.7 Total Debt (M) 802.6 Eff Tax Rate % - - - - Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 46.9 Enterprise Value (M) 1748.4 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 2. Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings Paladin Energy Ltd Target price in AUD Broker Recommendation Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price Price Brokers' Target Price 4 5 100% 5% 9% 10% 13% 13% 9% 17% 17% 14% 17% 17% 5 21% 4 4 80% 3 26% 26% 30% 4 22% 22% 36% 38% 45% 32% 26% 30% 29% 3 3 60% 3 2 2 40% 2 2 61% 61% 55% 61% 61% 61% 55% 57% 1 50% 52% 50% 52% 1 20% 1 1 0 Securities Pty Genuity Corp Raymond BMO Capital Securities Inc. Securities Inc. Partners Ltd JPMorgan Securities Corp Commonwealth Morgan RBC Capital Macquarie Securities Ltd Capital Inc Credit Suisse Securities Stanley Dimensions Deutsche Bank CIBC World Paterson Paradigm Octa Phillip Canaccord James Ambrian Markets Markets Argonaut Haywood Markets Cormark 0% 0 EVA Dundee Bank févr.12 mars.12 avr.12 mai.12 juin.12 juil.12 août.12 sept.12 oct.12 nov.12 déc.12 janv.13 Buy Hold Sell Price Target Price Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date 31-Jan-13 52% 30% 17% 20-Feb-13 1.24 1.64 Deutsche Bank PAUL-D YOUNG hold 1.30 15-Feb-13 31-Dec-12 57% 26% 17% 19-Feb-13 1.21 1.64 JPMorgan MARK BUSUTTIL neutral 1.80 15-Feb-13 30-Nov-12 55% 32% 14% 18-Feb-13 1.20 1.64 Raymond James DAVID SADOWSKI outperform 1.93 15-Feb-13 31-Oct-12 61% 30% 9% 15-Feb-13 1.21 1.63 Dundee Securities Corp DAVID A TALBOT buy 2.31 15-Feb-13 28-Sep-12 61% 26% 13% 14-Feb-13 1.22 1.68 Cormark Securities Inc. MIKE KOZAK speculative buy 2.41 15-Feb-13 31-Aug-12 61% 26% 13% 13-Feb-13 1.15 1.68 Commonwealth Bank ANDREW KNUCKEY underweight 0.95 15-Feb-13 31-Jul-12 50% 45% 5% 12-Feb-13 1.12 1.64 BMO Capital Markets EDWARD STERCK market perform 1.45 14-Feb-13 29-Jun-12 52% 38% 10% 11-Feb-13 1.13 1.64 Morgan Stanley STEFAN HANSEN Equalwt/In-Line 1.35 14-Feb-13 31-May-12 55% 36% 9% 8-Feb-13 1.09 1.64 RBC Capital Markets ADAM SCHATZKER outperform 1.35 14-Feb-13 30-Apr-12 50% 29% 21% 7-Feb-13 1.08 1.64 Credit Suisse RALPH M PROFITI outperform 1.93 14-Feb-13 30-Mar-12 61% 22% 17% 6-Feb-13 1.10 1.64 CIBC World Markets MATTHEW GIBSON sector outperform 3.38 14-Feb-13 29-Feb-12 61% 22% 17% 5-Feb-13 1.11 1.65 Canaccord Genuity Corp OREST WOWKODAW buy 1.69 14-Feb-13 4-Feb-13 1.14 1.65 Haywood Securities Inc. COLIN HEALEY sector outperform 1.93 13-Feb-13 1-Feb-13 1.13 1.65 Paterson Securities SIMON TONKIN hold 1.20 11-Feb-13 31-Jan-13 1.14 1.65 EVA Dimensions CRAIG STERLING underweight 23-Jan-13 30-Jan-13 1.15 1.65 Macquarie MICHAEL BOGUSZ neutral 1.35 18-Jan-13 29-Jan-13 1.16 1.65 Argonaut Securities Pty Ltd TROY IRVIN speculative buy 1.75 17-Jan-13 28-Jan-13 1.12 1.65 Octa Phillip Securities Ltd ANDREW SHEARER buy 1.40 15-Nov-12 25-Jan-13 1.12 1.65 Ambrian Partners Ltd ADAM KILEY hold 1.69 12-Apr-12 24-Jan-13 1.14 1.65 Paradigm Capital Inc DAVID DAVIDSON hold 4.76 16-Nov-10 23-Jan-13 1.18 1.66 22-Jan-13 1.17 1.66 21-Jan-13 1.19 1.66 18-Jan-13 1.20 1.66 17-Jan-13 1.18 1.66 16-Jan-13 1.16 1.67 15-Jan-13 1.12 1.63 14-Jan-13 1.07 1.63 11-Jan-13 1.05 1.62 10-Jan-13 1.03 1.62 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 3. 20.02.2013 Paladin Energy Ltd Company Analysis - Ownership Ownership Type Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution Geographic Ownership 3% Shares Outstanding (M) 835.6 United States 31.40% 5% 1% Float 84.8% Australia 30.14% 1% 6% Short Interest (M) 108.3 35% Singapore 13.89% 32% Short Interest as % of Float 15.28% Switzerland 10.87% Days to Cover Shorts 6.84 Unknown Country 6.39% 11% Institutional Ownership 34.93% Canada 4.83% Retail Ownership 62.26% Luxembourg 1.05% Insider Ownership 2.81% 62% Others 1.44% 14% 30% Institutional Ownership Distribution Investment Advisor 32.59% Mutual Fund Manager 21.03% Corporation 14.16% United States Australia Singapore Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership Government 13.85% Switzerland Unknown Country Canada Pricing data is in AUD Others 18.37% Luxembourg Others Top 20 Owners: TOP 20 ALL Institutional Ownership Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country L1 CAPITAL PTY LTD 63'119'387 9'584'967 78'268'040 7.54% 24.08.2012 EXCH AUSTRALIA 18% NEWMONT MINING CORP 52'097'937 0 64'601'442 6.22% 16.09.2011 Co File UNITED STATES GOVT OF SINGAPORE IN 50'957'433 8'651'860 63'187'217 6.09% 05.12.2012 ULT-AGG SINGAPORE 33% NATIONAL AUSTRALIA B 41'932'448 21'028 51'996'236 5.01% 14.02.2012 EXCH AUSTRALIA UBS 39'980'126 -2'257'895 49'575'356 4.78% 07.05.2012 ULT-AGG GLOBAL X MANAGEMENT 17'558'695 -416'532 21'772'782 2.10% 28.01.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES BORSHOFF JOHN 15'877'394 0 19'687'969 1.90% 29.01.2013 EXCH n/a 14% FMR LLC 14'406'619 273'415 17'864'208 1.72% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 21% VANGUARD GROUP INC 8'621'660 219'813 10'690'858 1.03% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV 8'040'918 0 9'970'738 0.96% 31.07.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES 14% IG INVESTMENT MANAGE 6'537'500 0 8'106'500 0.78% 28.09.2012 MF-AGG CANADA INVESCO LTD 5'784'204 0 7'172'413 0.69% 19.02.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES CRABB RICK WAYNE 5'181'528 300'000 6'425'095 0.62% 15.11.2012 PROXY n/a VANGUARD INVESTMENTS 4'004'702 -31'839 4'965'830 0.48% 30.09.2012 MF-AGG AUSTRALIA Investment Advisor Mutual Fund Manager Corporation Government Others VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C 3'879'233 0 4'810'249 0.46% 15.02.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES TD ASSET MANAGEMENT 3'757'200 913'037 4'658'928 0.45% 31.12.2011 MF-AGG CANADA MANNING & NAPIER ADV 2'564'930 463'070 3'180'513 0.31% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES CI INVESTMENTS INC 2'290'300 0 2'839'972 0.27% 30.06.2012 MF-AGG CANADA NATIXIS INTERNATIONA 2'238'906 0 2'776'243 0.27% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG LUXEMBOURG SWABY GILLIAN 2'081'655 -755'000 2'581'252 0.25% 12.09.2011 SEDI n/a Top 5 Insiders: Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source BORSHOFF JOHN 15'877'394 19'687'969 1.90% 29.01.2013 EXCH CRABB RICK WAYNE 5'181'528 300'000 6'425'095 0.62% 15.11.2012 Proxy SWABY GILLIAN 2'081'655 -755'000 2'581'252 0.25% 12.09.2011 SEDI SHUMKA DONALD M 200'000 100'000 248'000 0.02% 16.11.2012 SEDI LLEWELYN SEAN REVEILLE 100'000 124'000 0.01% 11.10.2012 Proxy Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 4. Company Analysis - Financials I/IV Paladin Energy Ltd Financial information is in AUD (M) Equivalent Estimates Periodicity: Fiscal Year 6/02 6/03 6/04 6/05 6/06 6/07 6/08 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13E 6/14E 6/15E Income Statement Revenue 0 0 0 4 105 152 229 271 355 397 475 544 - Cost of Goods Sold 15 74 90 174 225 293 Gross Income -11 31 62 55 45 62 - Selling, General & Admin Expenses 1 1 1 10 13 44 50 1'095 55 86 245 (Research & Dev Costs) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operating Income -1 -1 -1 -10 -12 -55 -18 -1'033 0 -41 -182 -94 52 121 - Interest Expense 0 0 0 0 0 15 21 18 5 37 35 - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 0 0 0 0 -1 1 4 -1 6 6 -1 - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) 1 -0 -1 -1 -4 -8 7 56 10 23 55 Pretax Income -2 -1 0 -10 -7 -63 -49 -1'106 -20 -107 -271 -96 37 103 - Income Tax Expense 0 0 0 0 0 -15 -8 -322 32 -17 -76 Income Before XO Items -2 -1 0 -10 -7 -48 -42 -784 -53 -90 -195 - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 -0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -131 -1 -6 -27 Diluted EPS Before XO Items 0.00 (0.03) (0.02) (0.09) (0.07) (1.06) (0.07) (0.11) (0.20) Net Income Adjusted* -21 -38 -653 -54 -72 -31 -73 22 71 EPS Adjusted (0.04) (0.06) (1.06) (0.08) (0.10) (0.04) (0.08) 0.04 0.08 Dividends Per Share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Payout Ratio % 0.0 0.02 0.01 Total Shares Outstanding 227 266 334 401 454 602 613 624 717 778 836 Diluted Shares Outstanding 211 208 288 363 433 511 608 618 697 744 820 EBITDA -1 -0 -1 -10 -12 -52 -6 -1'020 24 -3 -132 18 140 204 *Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges. Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 5. Company Analysis - Financials II/IV Periodicity: 6/02 6/03 6/04 6/05 6/06 6/07 6/08 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13E 6/14E 6/15E Balance Sheet Total Current Assets 0.497 1.426 5.802 40.057 63.473 274.555935 468.073989 225.386997 609.30672 307.563025 382.608696 + Cash & Near Cash Items 0 0 5 39 60 215 353 82 411 110 110 + Short Term Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Accounts & Notes Receivable 0 0 0 0 0 4 30 16 17 0 51 + Inventories 0 0 0 0 0 45 72 106 129 166 182 + Other Current Assets 0 1 1 1 4 11 13 21 53 32 40 Total Long-Term Assets 5 4 5 5 97 2'147 2'210 1'587 1'725 1'937 1'911 + Long Term Investments 1 1 1 0 0 71 0 86 42 39 15 Gross Fixed Assets 2 1 1 2 82 163 265 663 1'649 1'864 1'904 Accumulated Depreciation 1 1 0 1 1 4 12 28 48 77 220 + Net Fixed Assets 2 0 0 1 80 159 253 634 1'601 1'788 1'684 + Other Long Term Assets 3 3 4 4 16 1'917 1'958 867 82 110 212 Total Current Liabilities 0 1 1 1 12 36 57 113 143 111 248 + Accounts Payable 0 0 1 1 11 16 43 83 75 65 66 + Short Term Borrowings 0 1 1 1 0 7 11 18 57 41 179 + Other Short Term Liabilities 0 0 0 0 1 13 2 12 12 5 3 Total Long Term Liabilities 1 0 0 0 24 847 1'128 918 1'045 868 878 + Long Term Borrowings 1 0 0 0 19 315 597 708 806 631 640 + Other Long Term Borrowings 0 0 0 0 5 532 531 209 239 237 238 Total Liabilities 1 1 1 1 36 882 1'185 1'031 1'188 979 1'126 + Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 217 217 85 86 78 51 + Share Capital & APIC 19 19 24 66 148 1'265 1'138 1'377 1'742 1'651 1'797 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity -14 -15 -15 -22 -23 57 139 -680 -681 -464 -681 Total Shareholders Equity 5 4 9 44 125 1'539 1'494 782 1'147 1'265 1'167 Total Liabilities & Equity 6 6 11 45 160 2'421 2'679 1'812 2'335 2'244 2'294 Book Value Per Share 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.11 0.27 2.19 2.08 1.12 1.48 1.53 1.34 1.28 1.28 1.35 Tangible Book Value Per Share 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.11 0.27 2.16 2.05 1.07 1.44 1.50 1.31 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 6. Company Analysis - Financials III/IV Periodicity: 6/02 6/03 6/04 6/05 6/06 6/07 6/08 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13E 6/14E 6/15E Cash Flows Net Income -2 -1 0 -9 -7 -48 -40 -653 -52 -83 -168 -131 23 71 + Depreciation & Amortization 0 0 0 0 0 3 12 13 24 38 50 + Other Non-Cash Adjustments 2 0 -1 8 7 3 35 648 42 52 135 + Changes in Non-Cash Capital -0 0 0 -0 1 -7 -28 -19 -53 -110 -140 Cash From Operating Activities -0 -0 -0 -1 1 -49 -21 -11 -39 -103 -122 + Disposal of Fixed Assets 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 12 0 + Capital Expenditures -0 0 -0 -1 -71 -113 -111 -323 -202 -149 -80 -36 -28 -61 + Increase in Investments -0 0 0 0 -1 -17 -20 -16 -2 0 0 + Decrease in Investments 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 + Other Investing Activities -0 -0 -1 -5 -5 -26 -40 -12 -1 Cash From Investing Activities -1 -0 -0 -5 -76 -155 -169 -351 -204 -134 -80 + Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Change in Short Term Borrowings 0 0 0 0 + Increase in Long Term Borrowings 0 0 0 1 23 382 368 0 165 316 402 + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -0 0 -0 -1 -1 0 -5 -17 -7 -309 -260 + Increase in Capital Stocks 1 0 5 41 76 9 12 8 414 1 61 + Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Other Financing Activities 0 0 -0 0 -3 -9 -12 1 -7 -4 -6 Cash From Financing Activities 1 0 5 41 96 382 362 -8 564 4 197 Net Changes in Cash -0 -0 5 35 20 177 173 -369 321 -234 -5 Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) -1 -0 -0 -2 -71 -162 -132 -333 -241 -252 -202 33 85 76 Free Cash Flow To Firm -0 Free Cash Flow To Equity -1 -0 -0 -1 -48 219 233 -350 -84 -234 -59 Free Cash Flow per Share 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.16 -0.32 -0.22 -0.54 -0.35 -0.34 -0.25 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 7. Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV Periodicity: 6/02 6/03 6/04 6/05 6/06 6/07 6/08 6/09 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13E 6/14E 6/15E Ratio Analysis Valuation Ratios Price Earnings 192.9x 30.4x 14.8x EV to EBIT 13'176.3x EV to EBITDA 124.9x 100.0x 12.5x 8.6x Price to Sales 1'087.7x 39.8x 22.0x 10.5x 7.5x 2.9x 2.6x 2.2x 1.9x Price to Book 1.5x 0.7x 4.8x 10.7x 15.0x 3.8x 3.1x 4.4x 2.4x 1.7x 0.9x 1.0x 1.0x 0.9x Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Profitability Ratios Gross Margin -263.6% 29.2% 40.6% 24.1% 16.7% 17.5% EBITDA Margin -1245.5% -5.5% -670.9% 10.4% -1.1% -37.3% 4.4% 29.6% 37.5% Operating Margin -1309.1% -17.2% -679.7% 0.1% -15.0% -51.3% -23.8% 10.9% 22.2% Profit Margin -1139.4% -38.4% -429.5% -22.6% -30.8% -47.2% -18.4% 4.6% 13.1% Return on Assets -34.9% -10.0% 2.3% -33.5% -7.3% -3.5% -1.6% -23.9% -2.7% -3.8% -7.3% -1.7% 2.1% 5.3% Return on Equity -41.3% -12.6% 2.7% -35.2% -8.9% -6.2% -3.1% -53.8% -6.2% -7.6% -14.3% -6.1% 1.6% 6.3% Leverage & Coverage Ratios Current Ratio 1.85 1.11 4.40 30.23 5.45 7.73 8.28 1.99 4.25 2.77 1.54 Quick Ratio 1.07 0.09 3.53 29.81 5.13 6.16 6.77 0.87 2.98 0.99 0.65 Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) -13.10 -8.87 -17.95 -27.88 -83.36 -3.63 -0.88 -55.88 0.05 -1.10 -5.16 Tot Debt/Capital 0.14 0.14 0.07 0.01 0.13 0.17 0.29 0.48 0.43 0.35 0.41 Tot Debt/Equity 0.16 0.17 0.08 0.01 0.16 0.21 0.41 0.93 0.75 0.53 0.70 Others Asset Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.06 0.12 0.12 0.15 Accounts Receivable Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 5.86 5.34 14.74 37.58 14.07 Accounts Payable Turnover 4.54 3.53 1.54 2.71 4.37 4.54 Inventory Turnover 0.63 1.24 0.86 1.57 1.55 1.66 Effective Tax Rate 0.0% Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 8. Company Analysis - Peers Comparision DENISON MINES URANIUM ONE FORTESCUE MOUNT GIBSON PALADIN ENERGY ENERGY RES AUST CAMECO CORP BHP BILLITON LTD ALUMINA LTD ILUKA RESOURCES CO INC METALS IRO Latest Fiscal Year: 06/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/2011 06/2012 12/2011 12/2011 06/2012 06/2012 52-Week High 2.01 1.83 26.43 1.74 3.45 39.34 1.41 18.40 6.18 1.32 52-Week High Date 14.03.2012 03.05.2012 22.02.2012 23.02.2012 29.02.2012 20.02.2013 14.02.2013 02.04.2012 22.03.2012 24.02.2012 52-Week Low 0.74 1.09 16.50 1.04 1.78 30.09 0.63 7.36 2.81 0.62 52-Week Low Date 16.11.2012 10.12.2012 16.11.2012 15.11.2012 07.12.2012 12.07.2012 18.07.2012 19.11.2012 06.09.2012 29.11.2012 Daily Volume 10'509'581 1'865'307 466'924 46'713 153'732 13'806'043 20'974'288 6'222'607 25'745'397 12'356'513 Current Price (2/dd/yy) 1.24 1.41 22.94 1.34 2.73 38.65 1.25 10.35 4.92 0.82 52-Week High % Change -38.3% -23.0% -13.2% -23.1% -20.9% -1.8% -11.0% -43.8% -20.4% -37.9% 52-Week Low % Change 67.6% 29.5% 39.0% 28.8% 53.4% 28.4% 100.0% 40.6% 75.1% 33.3% Total Common Shares (M) 835.6 517.7 395.4 384.7 957.2 5'297.6 2'440.2 416.4 3'113.8 1'085.5 Market Capitalization 1'037.8 727.4 9'069.3 532.8 2'613.1 192'806.5 3'507.8 4'333.6 15'319.9 894.3 Total Debt 838.5 - 1'530.0 0.2 782.8 28'330.0 490.6 164.0 8'501.0 47.0 Preferred Stock - - - - - - - - - - Minority Interest 52.4 - 0.6 - - 1'215.0 - - - - Cash and Equivalents 112.1 467.3 799.4 53.5 619.0 4'781.0 19.0 320.7 2'343.0 40.7 Enterprise Value 1'804.3 260.1 9'800.6 483.7 2'975.7 229'982.0 4'210.9 4'450.8 26'490.6 900.6 Valuation Total Revenue LFY 365.8 422.8 2'321.5 96.8 530.4 72'226.0 0.0 1'536.7 6'681.0 637.0 LTM 324.1 422.8 2'321.5 67.3 493.2 66'950.0 - 1'629.3 6'625.1 671.4 CY+1 408.5 397.0 2'612.5 38.1 532.0 69'060.4 0.1 1'074.2 8'287.8 886.9 CY+2 489.1 345.7 2'830.4 17.2 657.2 75'838.5 0.2 1'004.6 11'721.2 719.8 EV/Total Revenue LFY 5.0x 0.4x 3.7x 5.5x 5.1x 3.3x #DIV/0! 3.1x 3.9x 1.5x LTM 5.6x 0.4x 3.7x 7.9x 5.5x 3.5x - 3.0x 3.9x 1.5x CY+1 3.8x 0.9x 3.9x 12.9x 5.5x 3.3x 37093.8x 4.2x 3.1x 0.6x CY+2 3.1x 1.0x 3.6x 25.2x 4.6x 3.0x 24272.7x 4.4x 2.2x 0.6x EBITDA LFY (136.4) 86.4 729.0 0.7 331.7 33'421.0 - 1'012.6 2'830.0 538.1 LTM (134.0) 86.4 729.0 13.7 200.4 22'246.0 - 1'235.2 2'304.2 538.1 CY+1 18.0 72.8 777.4 (1.9) 244.6 29'441.0 (22.1) 714.6 3'087.7 394.7 CY+2 144.6 63.3 901.9 (23.4) 361.5 34'978.0 10.7 492.6 4'429.2 324.3 EV/EBITDA LFY -13.3x 2.2x 11.6x 722.8x 8.1x 7.1x - 4.8x 9.1x 1.7x LTM - 2.2x 11.6x 38.9x 13.4x 10.6x - 3.9x 11.2x 1.7x CY+1 85.8x 5.0x 13.1x - 12.1x 7.7x - 6.3x 8.4x 1.4x CY+2 10.5x 5.5x 11.3x - 8.4x 6.4x 357.1x 8.9x 5.7x 1.3x EPS LFY -0.05 - 0.99 -0.10 0.11 3.61 - 1.24 0.50 0.16 LTM -0.11 -0.42 0.99 -0.19 0.05 1.83 0.02 1.61 0.40 0.08 CY+1 (0.08) (0.27) 1.18 (0.05) 0.04 2.56 (0.02) 0.91 0.48 0.15 CY+2 0.04 (0.24) 1.33 (0.05) 0.12 3.03 (0.01) 0.55 0.71 0.13 P/E LFY - - 23.2x - 53.7x 21.8x 71.4x 6.4x 12.7x 10.0x LTM - - 23.2x - 53.7x 12.7x - - - - CY+1 - - 19.4x - 61.0x 15.5x - 11.3x 10.6x 5.6x CY+2 30.4x - 17.3x - 22.2x 13.1x - 19.0x 7.2x 6.2x Revenue Growth 1 Year 37.1% (35.1%) (2.6%) (24.6%) 62.3% 0.7% - 73.3% 22.8% (1.6%) 5 Year 33.8% 5.0% 15.5% 58.9% 178.8% 6.8% - 26.1% - 20.4% EBITDA Growth 1 Year (4603.4%) - (9.3%) (98.3%) 162.0% (12.1%) - 242.7% 2.1% 3.2% 5 Year - (11.1%) (4.1%) - - 8.0% - 30.8% - 38.7% EBITDA Margin LTM (41.3%) 20.4% 31.4% 20.3% 40.6% 33.2% - 75.8% 34.8% 84.5% CY+1 4.4% 18.3% 29.8% (5.0%) 46.0% 42.6% (19248.7%) 66.5% 37.3% 44.5% CY+2 29.6% 18.3% 31.9% (135.7%) 55.0% 46.1% 6797.5% 49.0% 37.8% 45.1% Leverage/Coverage Ratios Total Debt / Equity % 73.4% 0.0% 30.9% 0.0% 39.3% 43.0% 17.2% 10.7% 226.0% 3.7% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Total Debt / Capital % 41.2% 0.0% 23.6% 0.0% 28.2% 29.7% 14.7% 9.7% 69.3% 3.6% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Total Debt / EBITDA - 0.000x 2.099x 0.020x 4.231x 1.595x - 0.120x 5.541x 0.087x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Net Debt / EBITDA - -5.411x 1.002x -2.959x 2.023x 1.366x - 0.095x 4.655x 0.012x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE EBITDA / Int. Expense -3.747x 2.931x 9.073x 19.316x 6.728x 44.266x - 83.686x 3.871x 85.257x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Credit Ratings S&P LT Credit Rating - - BBB+ - BB- A+ BBB- - BB- - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE S&P LT Credit Rating Date - - 19.12.2003 - 11.11.2011 15.11.2010 29.08.2012 - 28.09.2012 - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Moody's LT Credit Rating - - WR - - (P)A1 - - - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Moody's LT Credit Rating Date - - 17.01.2006 - - 15.11.2010 - - - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |