We are giving estimation for planing budget, sales proposals etc. but we can not estimate variablility and complexity of software systems. So we need a better approach to forecast team throughput by using past infomation, here is the #noestimation.

1. Semen Cirit (@semencirit)
2017

3.  You just need to know them so you can sleep
better and reduce your stress.
 You might need to give some answer to your
client so that he stops calling you every five
minutes
 You need to tell something to senior
management and other stakeholders so they
trust your ability to manage the project.
 But, these are not customer value !!!!
 So they immediately fall under the label of
waste.

4.  Is reducing the estimation effort and focus
on stabilizing the team throughput and using
past information to drive forecasts

8.  Essential complication or g(e): How hard a
problem is on its own.
 Accidental complication or h(a):The
complication that creeps into to the work
because – “we suck at our jobs”.
cost of feature = f(g(e), h(a))

9.  Software management is a CAS
 Complex dependencies in software projects
hide the really big risks.

10. You can only determine the real cost of a
feature by recognizing and measuring
accidental complication, or by using the
#NoEstimates approach.

11.  Internal politics
 Estimate bargaining
 Blame shifting
 Late changes

12.  Berard’s Law: Walking on water and developing
software against a written specification is easy if
both are frozen.
 Humphrey’s Law: The user of the software
won’t know what she wants until she sees the
software.
 Ziv’s Law: Requirements will never be
completely understood. An interactive system
can never be fully specified nor can it ever be
fully tested
 Langdon’s Lemma: Software evolves more
rapidly as it approaches chaotic regions

14. Deming’s quote: “if you give a manager a
target he will do anything to meet that target,
even if he has to destroy the company in the
process”.

15.  Not a comittment or promise
 Estimates are personal

16. A buffer adds some security margin to your project’s estimate:
 Time Buffers
 Scope Buffers
 Cost, investment and people assignment Buffers
Parkinson’s Law:Work expands to fill the time available for its
completion.

19.  Reduce dependency
 Stablize team
 Built quality in
 Be cross-functional
 Automate where possible
 Protect team from outside interruptions
 Freeze scope inside iterations

20. for NOESTIMATION

23.  Use only story points
 Stop adding estimates to sub-tasks
 Remove some SP options

26.  Use the average cycle times (takt time) for
Stories
 Simply count Stories and project progress
based on how many Stories the project was
able to deliver in the past: average Stories
delivered per iteration or per week.

28. @semencirit

29.  https://www.scruminc.com/origins-of-scrum/
 http://noestimatesbook.com/
 https://www.infoq.com/articles/standish-
chaos-2015