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Dis-moi ce que tu cherches, je te dirai qui tu es.


        Thomas Belhalfaoui & David Nowinsky
insights

    " Découvrez ce que les
 internautes du monde entier            www.google.com/insights/search
        recherchent "

Exemple : élections présidentielles
Google's "Chief Economist"
       since 2002
Combien vais-je vendre ce
       mois-ci ?




        Réponse                                 Réponse
"predicting the present"                    comptable classique



    Semaine 1               Mois en cours    Semaine 4
Seasonal autoregressive model

  log ������������ = α log ������������−1 + ������ log ������������−12 + ������ ������������

������������ : ventes au mois t
������������ : écart au modèle
log ������������ = α log ������������−1 + ������ log ������������−12 + ������ ������������ + ������ ������������ (1)


������������ : ventes au mois t
������������ : écart au modèle
������������ (������) : indice         insights (semaine k, mois t)
log ������������ = α log ������������−1 + ������ log ������������−12 + ������ ������������ + ������ ������������ (1)




                                                                  Méthode des
                                                                 moindres carrés




log ������������ = 0,114 log ������������−1 + 0,709 log ������������−12 + 2,312 + 0,006 ������������ (1)
Mean Absoute Error




                     Seasonal autoregressive model

                     Seasonal autoregressive model
                     avec Google Insights
log ������������ = 0,114 log ������������−1 + 0,709 log ������������−12 + 2,312 + 0,006 ������������ (1)




log ������������ = 0,105 log ������������−1 + 0,737 log ������������−12 + 2,007 + 0,005 ������������ (1) + 0,324 ������(������������������������ 2005)
Extension à d'autres grandeurs macroéconomiques ?


                            Natalité
              Chômage
                 Croissance
             Logement          Education
Forecasting Private Consumption:
      Survey-based Indicators
vs. Google Trends, November 2009
56 catégories de mots clés
• Survey-based indicators :
                          ������������ = α ������������−1 + ������ ������������������������������ + ������ ������������
    ������������ : monthly year-on-year growth rates of real private consumption
    ������������������������������ : Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

•                        Insights :
                           ������������ = α ������������−1 + ������ ������������ (������) + ������ ������������
    ������������ (������) : indice          insights (semaine k, mois t)


• Reference :
                         ������������ = α ������������−1 + ������ ������������ + ������ ������������ + ������ ������������
    ������������ : interest rates on three-month treasury bills
    ������������ : stock prices (measured by the S&P 500 index)
Modèle     Relative Root Mean Squared
                   Forecast Error

 MCSI /               1,02
Reference




        /             0,79
Reference
• Plus précis
• Plus réactif




• Choix des mots clés
• Pénétration du numérique
• Predicting the Present with Google Trends
  Hyunyoung Choi & Hal Varian
  April 10th 2009
  http://ec.europa.eu/bepa/pdf/seminars/google_predicting_the
  _present.pdf
• Forecasting Private Consumption: Survey-based
  Indicators vs. Google Trends
  Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen
  November 2009
  http://repec.rwi-essen.de/files/REP_09_155.pdf

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Google predicting the present

  • 1. Dis-moi ce que tu cherches, je te dirai qui tu es. Thomas Belhalfaoui & David Nowinsky
  • 2. insights " Découvrez ce que les internautes du monde entier www.google.com/insights/search recherchent " Exemple : élections présidentielles
  • 4.
  • 5. Combien vais-je vendre ce mois-ci ? Réponse Réponse "predicting the present" comptable classique Semaine 1 Mois en cours Semaine 4
  • 6. Seasonal autoregressive model log ������������ = α log ������������−1 + ������ log ������������−12 + ������ ������������ ������������ : ventes au mois t ������������ : écart au modèle
  • 7. log ������������ = α log ������������−1 + ������ log ������������−12 + ������ ������������ + ������ ������������ (1) ������������ : ventes au mois t ������������ : écart au modèle ������������ (������) : indice insights (semaine k, mois t)
  • 8. log ������������ = α log ������������−1 + ������ log ������������−12 + ������ ������������ + ������ ������������ (1) Méthode des moindres carrés log ������������ = 0,114 log ������������−1 + 0,709 log ������������−12 + 2,312 + 0,006 ������������ (1)
  • 9. Mean Absoute Error Seasonal autoregressive model Seasonal autoregressive model avec Google Insights
  • 10. log ������������ = 0,114 log ������������−1 + 0,709 log ������������−12 + 2,312 + 0,006 ������������ (1) log ������������ = 0,105 log ������������−1 + 0,737 log ������������−12 + 2,007 + 0,005 ������������ (1) + 0,324 ������(������������������������ 2005)
  • 11. Extension à d'autres grandeurs macroéconomiques ? Natalité Chômage Croissance Logement Education
  • 12. Forecasting Private Consumption: Survey-based Indicators vs. Google Trends, November 2009
  • 13. 56 catégories de mots clés
  • 14. • Survey-based indicators : ������������ = α ������������−1 + ������ ������������������������������ + ������ ������������ ������������ : monthly year-on-year growth rates of real private consumption ������������������������������ : Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index • Insights : ������������ = α ������������−1 + ������ ������������ (������) + ������ ������������ ������������ (������) : indice insights (semaine k, mois t) • Reference : ������������ = α ������������−1 + ������ ������������ + ������ ������������ + ������ ������������ ������������ : interest rates on three-month treasury bills ������������ : stock prices (measured by the S&P 500 index)
  • 15. Modèle Relative Root Mean Squared Forecast Error MCSI / 1,02 Reference / 0,79 Reference
  • 16. • Plus précis • Plus réactif • Choix des mots clés • Pénétration du numérique
  • 17. • Predicting the Present with Google Trends Hyunyoung Choi & Hal Varian April 10th 2009 http://ec.europa.eu/bepa/pdf/seminars/google_predicting_the _present.pdf • Forecasting Private Consumption: Survey-based Indicators vs. Google Trends Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen November 2009 http://repec.rwi-essen.de/files/REP_09_155.pdf