Presented by Richard A. MacKenzie, Aquatic Ecologist, USFS, at Online Workshop Capacity Building on the IPCC 2013 Wetlands Supplement, FREL Diagnostic and Uncertainty Analysis, 20-22 September 2021

1. Introduction to NDCs and FREL
Richard A. MacKenzie
Aquatic Ecologist, USFS
9/20/21

2. Paris Agreement at the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) of the UNFCCC agreed
to limit global average temperature increase to < 2oC above pre-industrial levels
and within 1.5 oC.
These goals are to be achieved through NDCs, which shall:
• be transparent, accurate, complete, comparable and consistent (TACCC)
• be in accordance with guidance adopted by the COPs serving as the meeting
of the Parties to this Agreement.
• guide the country’s long term development plans towards a climate resilient
and low carbon pathway while promoting economic development and
industrial goals
• account for anthropogenic emissions and removals in accordance with IPCC
methodologies and common metrics
• include all categories of anthropogenic emissions or removals and to
continue to include categories that were previously included in NDCs
• provide explanations as to why anthropogenic emissions or removals have
been excluded in NDCs.
Nationally Determined Contributions

3. Development of Philippines NDCs

4. • Forest Reference Level (FRL) estimates
the amount of emission reductions from
deforestation and forest degradation,
and also increased removals from
enhanced forest carbon stocks.
• Forest Reference Emissions Level (FREL),
only estimates amount of emission
reductions from deforestation and forest
degradation from a geographical area
(REDD).

5. • Be expressed in tonnes of CO2equivalent per year
• Take into account historical data and understand
forest change patterns and underlying causes
– to take national circumstances into account,
– to construct scenarios that deviate from historical
trends
• Maintain consistency with national GHG inventories
• Be established transparently
• Recognize step wise approaches
Developing FREL/FRL

6. Mangroves are often not
included in FRELs or NDCs
despite the high carbon stocks
they have, especially in their
sediments.

7. Developing FRELs
TopicD1.Slide11of16
Angelsen et al. (2011)

8. A step-wise approach to develop FRELs
TopicD1.Slide12of16
Herold et al., 2012

9. TopicD1.Slide10of16
FAO 2015

10. ▪ FREL/FRL provide the benchmarks or baselines
that can be used in NDCs, REDD+, etc.
▪ FREL/FRL may be developed through a step-wise
approach
▪ Improvements from higher tier emission factors, the
use of TACCC, and calculated uncertainty values
should be promoted to encourage broad
participation and increase confidence
Concluding remarks
TopicD1.Slide14of16

11. Philippines
• The Philippines has committed to reduce its GHG
emissions as much as 75% from 2020 to 2030 against
the projected emissions during this period of 3,340.3
Mt CO2 eq. 2.17% is unconditional, 72.29% is
conditional on international assistance
• The Philippines is scheduled to submit its FREL 2021 by
the end of this year
• FREL 2021 will be used as a baseline to compare future
mitigation actions and possibly to participate in REDD+
• FREL 2021 could be improved by incorporating missing
sources/sinks such as wetlands

12. Workshop objectives
1. To familiarize with Chapter 4 of the 2013 IPCC Wetlands
Supplement
2. To present the Transparency, Accuracy , Compatibility,
Completeness and Consistency (TACCC) of the UNFCCC
3. Introduce methods for estimating uncertainty of FREL
2021

13. Participants
• Forest Management Bureau
• Climate Change Commission
• Ecosystems Research and Development Bureau
• Biodiversity Management Bureau
• The University of the Philippines Diliman
• The University of the Philippines BluesCARES Project
• Conservation International Philippines
• Climate Change Service
• National Mapping and Resource Information Auth.
• FREL Team

14. Dr Henry Adornado
John Edgar Dr Richard MacKenzie Dr. Rupesh Bhomia Dr Sigit Sasmito
Dr. Severino Salmo III Dr Oswaldo Carrillo Dr. Allan Castillo Dr Zuel Araujo
Speakers and resource persons

15. Thank you