1. Optimal conservation
strategies for dynamic
landscapes
James B. Grand, USGS
Max Post van der Burg, Auburn University
Alabama Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit

2. A short history …
 LMV JV - Bottomland hardwood restoration
 Objective: birds, single habitat, simple landscape
 EGCP JV - Longleaf Pine Restoration
 Objective: birds, single habitat, complex landscape
 AC JV - Designing Sustainable Landscapes
 Objective: birds, Multiple habitats, dynamic landscape
 Landscape stressors – climate change, urbanization
 Optimal Conservation Strategies
 Multiple objectives
 Multiple resources
 Dynamic landscapes

3. Southeast Regional Assessment Project
(SERAP)
1. Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate change projections
2. Regional coastal sea level rise on the Mississippi and Alabama
coasts
3. Climate change and its impacts on bird habitats
4. Designing sustainable landscapes: climate and land use change
projected impacts on priorities species habitats
5. Patch and range dynamics of North American avian species in
response to land use patterns and climatic change
6. Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects
on biological resources: Aquatic and hydrologic dynamics
7. Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate
change

4. Relationship to SA LCC
 The purpose of this project is to develop a
framework to help guide strategic decisions for
conservation delivery across the South Atlantic
Landscape Conservation Cooperative (SA LCC).
 Strategic decisions as those that maximize the LCC
partners’ ability to meet large-scale objectives for
complex systems.
 Strategies are collections (portfolios) of decisions by
SA LCC partners to implement conservation actions.

5. Objectives
 Based on input from SA LCC:
1. Identify focal species
2. Assess the state of focal species
3. Determine population and habitat objectives
4. Develop habitat relationship models
5. Predict the effects of management on focal species

6. Objectives
6. Determine optimal conservation strategies
 Where conservation is needed
 What actions should work best
 When action should be taken
7. Identify key elements for monitoring
 Learn more about direction and effects of climate
 Measure progress towards objectives

7. Our conceptual model
Conservation
Objectives
Aquatic Avian
Species Species
Response Response
…is this really the problem?
Freshwater Terrestrial Coastal
Habitats Habitats Habitats
Phenology Hydrology Land Cover Sea Level
Rise
Private Lands Climate Change Urban Growth Public Lands
Habitat Conservation Strategies
Enlarge Existing
Span Gradients
Facilitate Movements
Connect Existing
Do Nothing

8. Stakeholder involvement
 National Park Service
 U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
 Environmental Protection Agency
 Environmental Defense Fund
 U.S. Forest Service
 Georgia Department of Natural Resources
 The Nature Conservancy
 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

9. Eliciting concerns
What's important Parking Lot
Synergistic Impacts
Maintain all Wildlife Unknown-unknowns
Conserve cultural Socioeconomics Natural Areas
resources Human health
Maint. Aquatic spp.
Maint. Terr. spp.
Protect
Protect
Archeological
Maint. & Cons. Historic Sites
Sites
Productive
Habitat
Water Quality Water Quantity Beach Erosion Air Quality
Scale
Soil Erosion Fire Prevention
Runoff
Education Communication
Tools
Monitoring Maps of priority areas
How we get there. Website
TACCIMO
*** This is the beginning of structuring objectives based on one webinar. This is
simply an example of the first step in defining objectives.

10. Stakeholder involvement
What’s Important
How we get there

11. Stakeholder involvement
Maintain Wildlife Populations Socioeconomics
Conserve cultural resources Natural Areas
Maintain Terrestrial Spp. Protect Archaeological Sites
Maintain Aquatic Spp. Air Quality Protect Historical Sites
Water Quantity Soil erosion Beach Erosion
Habitat Runoff Water Quality Fire
Tools Maps of priority areas
Monitoring Education
*** This is the beginning of structuring objectives based on one webinar. This is
simply an example of the first step in defining objectives.

12. Why should we do this?
 Complicated problems…
 Ends and means can become confused
 Ends determine how we measure success
 Think about conserving habitat…
 Do we measure success in terms of acres or populations?
 Means set the stage for strategies
 Which strategies should we choose to meet our ends
 Requires predictions of consequences

13. Optimal strategies
 Define the conservation objectives
 Identify and model the strategies
 Collections of actions & policies
 Predict and compare the consequences of each
strategy
 Incorporating – climate change, urbanization
 Determine optimal strategies
 Greatest likelihood of meeting all objectives
 Value of strategy ~ rewards * uncertainty * risk
cost
 Incorporate tradeoffs

14. How do we predict consequences?
 Southeast Resource Assessment Project
 Downscaled climate projections
 Sea level rise
 Assessment of terrestrial & aquatic habitats & affects on
priority species
 But for other objectives…
 Expert opinion
 Applied research
 Surrogates

15. Adaptation working groups
 LCC Leadership identifies membership
 Decision makers  Land managers
 Taxa experts  SERAP PIs
 Working groups
 Prototype decision (prioritization) models
 Assist with data development
 Iteratively review and refine tools
 Reports recommendations to LCC technical
committees & leadership

16. What do we need?
 Working group
 Refine objectives
 Structure decision (prioritization) models
 Identify data needs & priorities
 Iteratively review and refine tools
 Establish tradeoffs
 LCC Leadership identifies membership
 Decision makers  Land managers
 Resource experts  SERAP PIs

17. How do we do this?
 Multi-day meetings & workshops
 2-4 in April - June 2011
 Report of workshops in September 2011
 Prototype model January 2012

18. What are the products?
 Comparison of strategies
 Ordered list of places, actions, and times for actions
 GIS depictions of same
 Mechanism for adapting to change