1. Keynote given at Northampton University on 2011-09-01 by invitation of Adrian Pryce for the school’s
2020 visioning session.
This document has a Creative Commons license (CC-BY-SA), and can be used freely.
4. 2011 – 20152011 – 2015 2015 – 20252015 – 2025 2025 +2025 +
(2011)
now
3D
4G
5G
AR
HAP
NFC
NUI
PAN
PGS
SPIME
UAV
VASIMR
ACRONYMS
3D screens and cameras
Fourth gen cellular wireless (WiMAX, LTE)
Fifth gen cellular wireless
Augmented Reality
High Altitude Platform
Near Field Communication
Natural User Interface
Personal Area Networks
Personal Gene Sequencing
An object that can be tracked
through space and time
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
Variable Specific Impulse
Magnetoplasma Rocket
Inductive
chargers
Solar
Nuclear
Kinetic
Traveling
wave reactor
Thorium
reactors
Fuel cells
Multi-segmented
smart grids
Biomechanical
harvesting
Smart
meters
Solar
thermal
Superconducting
interties
Bio-enhanced
fuels
Ultra-
capacitors
Nanostructure
batterycathodes
Artificial
photosynthesis
Piezo-
electricity
Photvoltaic
glass
Photo-
voltaics
Nano-
generators
ENERGY
Private
spaceflight
Space
tourism
Space
elevator
Lunar
outpost
VASIMR
SPACE
All media
on demand
Gamification
of media
MEDIA
Procedural
storytelling
Location-aware
media
Smart
toys
Appliance
robots
Self-driving
vehicles
Domestic
robots
Swarm
robotics
Utility
fog
Exoskeletons
UAVs
ROBOTICS
Speech
recognition
Haptics
Holography
AR
Gesture
recognition
Multi
touch
Machine
vision
Telepresence
NUI
(SOFTWARE)
Immersive 3D
projections
Fabric-
embedded
screens
Pico-
projectors
Smart clothing
Skin-embedded
screens
Electronic
paper
SPIMES
Tabs &
Pads
Boards
Retinal
screens
3D
UBICOMP
(HARDWARE)
(biofeedback) Reversal of
aging
Optogenetics
Stem-cell
treatments
Regenerative
medicine
Synthetic
meat
Vertical
agriculture
PGS
Personalized
medicine
Artificial limbs
Tele-
medicine
BIOTECH
Bio-
markers
High-frequency
trading
Software
agents
Machine
translation
Medical
diagnostics
Intelligence
Amplification
ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
Natural language
interpretation
NFC
Social
graph
Linked
data
Semantic
web
4G
5G
Sensors
Smart
infrastructure
Smart
cities
Cloud
computing
Pervasive
video
PAN
Interplanetary
internet
Virtual
currencies
Cyber-
warfare
INTERNET
(CONNECTIVITY)
HAPs
Virtual
property
Programmable matter
Cermets
Memristor
Carbon
nanotubes
Molecular
assembler
Nanowires
Meta-
materials
Print on
demand
3D
printing
Bio-
materials
MATERIALS
Self-healing
materials
BY SA
meeting people is easy
Last updated: 2011-03-29
Learn more:
Contact me:
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michellzappa.com
michellzappa@gmail.com
@mz
I recently published a visualization of a few dozen key technologies I think will be important in the
upcoming decade.
5. 2011 – 20152011 – 2015
(2011)
now
Inductive
chargers
Fuel cells
Multi-segmented
smart grids
Biomechanical
harvesting
Smart
meters
Solar
thermal
Superconducting
interties
Bio-enhanced
fuels
Ultra-
capacitors
Nanostruc
batterycath
Artificial
photosynthesis
Piezo-
electricity
Photvoltaic
glass
Photo-
voltaics
ge
ENERGY
Private
spaceflight
Sp
tou
All media
on demand
Gamification
of media
MEDIA
Procedural
storytelling
Location-aware
media
Smart
toys
Appliance
robots
Speech
recognition
Haptics
Holography
AR
Gesture
recognition
Multi
touch
Machine
vision
Telepresence
NUI
(SOFTWARE)
Immersive 3D
projections
Fabric-
embedded
screens
Pico-
projectors
lothing
Electronic
paper
SPIMES
Tabs &
Pads
Boards 3D
UBICOMP
(HARDWARE)
PGS
Tele-
medicine
BIOTECH
Bio-
markers
High-frequency
trading
Software
agents
ARTIFIC
INTELLIGE
Natural language
interpretation
NFC
Social
graph
Linked
data
Semantic
web
4G
Sensors
Cloud
computing
Pervasive
video
PAN
Virtual
currencies
Cyber-
warfare
INTERNET
(CONNECTIVITY)
Virtual
property
Cermets
Memristor
assembler
Meta-
materials
Print on
demand
3D
printing
Bio-
materials
MATERIALS
Self-healing
materials
It can be downloaded freely on my website.
7. We usually think about technology in terms of its artifacts: robots, cars, phones, etc.
8. Technology, in fact, is everything that surrounds us.
The wheel, agriculture, fire, the book and money are examples of technologies we do not usually
isolate as such.
9. “Anything useful that
we make is technology.”
— KevinKelly
Kevin Kelly knows what he’s talking about.
Source:
http://www.ted.com/talks/kevin_kelly_tells_technology_s_epic_story.html
10. The other characteristic about technology is how it’s always progressing. A century ago, humanity had
never even taken flight. Now, we take it for granted.
12. And also things we consider “technologies”, like video games.
13. FSB RAM HDD MpbsCPU
2006
2011
But technology has this other interesting aspect. It grows relentlessly.
You can ignore the numbers -- just look at the constant growth over time.
16. What allows YouTube to exist? The combination of:
Ubiquitous cameras, cheap storage, fast processing, internet users everywhere, fast internet access.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dtimcarr/308240826/
18. While we avoid talking about specific gadgets, there is one elephant in the room...
19. The iPad is, however, an important exception to the rule of “not looking at gadgets”.
It will inevitable make its mark on education, but in my opinion, it will mostly have a great impact on
textbooks in the foreseeable future.
20. “A rocket will never be able to
leave the Earth’s atmosphere.”
—NewYorkTimes,1936
Tech predictions are fundamentally flawed and risky.
Source:
http://listverse.com/history/top-30-failed-technology-predictions/
24. The one-to-many approach changed a bit with the web. But mostly by amplifying the “many”.
Open Courseware (and its kin) is still fundamentally broadcasting knowledge.
27. Million students per month
Pause, repeat, review
Own pace, skip ahead
Teacher overview panel
Generate as many questions as the student needs. Until they get ten in a row.
31. Livemocha is changing the face of language education. Learn from those already speak a different
language -- and teach them a language you speak in return.
32. And if you question the validity of Open Courseware approaches, just look at Stanford’s recent AI
course.
33. “Flip”theclassroom.
Flip the classroom:
lectures are the new homework -- and classes are used for answering questions and doing work
Transforming a system that has become industrial by necessity into a craft once again.
38. Withings
Or how about measuring your weight and having the results uploaded to your phone in real time?
It becomes a way of tightening the feedback loop between cause and effect. Between eating that extra
bagel, and knowing you gained a few more pounds.
http://www.withings.com/en/index/?taranim=1
39. Or track the quality of your sleep.
http://www.myzeo.com/
40. The same thing is happening to education, of course. Grockit facilitates learning and test-prep by
breaking down the problems into quantifiable chunks. Track how well you are performing at every
*aspect* of math. Not simply through a grade at the end of the term/test.
42. Tighter
feedbackloops
“This is not the way to develop a complicated skill. It would be like trying to master the violin, say, by
going blind to a recital, having an expert tell you all the ways you’ve failed, and letting that gestate for
a few weeks before your next recital”.
Equity in the feedback loop. It’s a way to raise the bar for everyone.
43. “Gamified”learning
Or when you start “gamifying” the learning? Better rankings, better class overview, more incentives for
the students to try harder.
46. The number of Google searches per day keeps going up. We are more than accustomed to having
access to information at our fingertips. But comes “after” typing in queries into a computer?
48. GoogleGoggles
So why have to look up the name of that bridge? Or who created that painting?
Point your smartphone camera and have Google tell you. It’s called reverse image search, and it’s
frankly uncanny.
55. Wisdom
Knowledge
Information
Data
Who teaches our kids to sift through the information flood?
How do we learn to judge the value and validity of this torrent of data?
That’s probably the role of the educators today.
58. 65%of today's grade school
kids will end up at a job that hasn't
been invented yet.
Source: United States Department of Labor: Futurework - Trends and Challenges for Work in the 21st
Century
We are currently preparing for jobs that don’t yet exist, using technologies that haven’t been invented,
In order to solve problems we don’t even know are problems yet.
59. PROGRAMMING
INTERFACE
PRIVACY
MULTIMEDIA
ATTENTION
MULTITASKING
CONCENTRATION
We need to rethink the very basic skills that are being taught in school. Even more emphasis on
future-proof skills such as Interface, Concentration and Attention. Those issues aren’t going anywhere.
Today, programmers are just like scribes in the middle ages or ancient Egypt. In the future, everyone
will be a programmer. Everyone will have to interact with all media. It’s no longer a “IT” problem.
60. Students should be taken to the
edge of the precipice beyond which
knowledge does not exist.
HaroldInnis
I love this phrase (because we have no other option than to be dragged, kicking and screaming, to this
precipice).