2. ⾃⼰紹介|どんな研究をしているのか
⽣態リスク評価、確率的リスク分析、因果推論
Yij
θAlgae σjMeans SDθFish
Sensitivity differences among
taxonomic groups Normal distributions
Log(NOEC)
Parameters were estimated
by MCMC simulations
θInvertebrate
階層ベイズモデルとモンテカルロシミュレーションを
⽤いた化学物質の⽣態リスクの定量化とリスク⽐較
Hayashi & Kashiwagi (2009)
Hayashi & Kashiwagi (2010)
Monte Carlo Analysis
EPAF = F
µECD - µSSD
sECD
2
+ sSSD
2
æ
è
ç
ç
ö
ø
÷
÷
µECD µSSDsECD sSSD
Calculation of predictive
distribution of EPAF
Posterior distributions of ECD
parameters
Posterior distributions of SSD
parameters
Results: Quantitative Risk Comparison
Median and 90% range of EPAF
log10(EPAF)
Large Risk→←Small Risk
Chemicals
Ammonia
Copper
Nickel
Zinc
Hayashi and Kashiwagi (2011)