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ETHER 29 Jan 2016
His Greatness,
NSY
I hate stats
Medutainment
#ih8stats
ih8stats
https://www.sli.do/event/qt6qioy3/wall
Why use statistics?
But is the Truth true?
An Example
Asiana Flight 214
AmTrak
Why not ask bus drivers instead?
Type of Paper
Intervention
Drug Trial
RCT Observational
Case report
Case series
Case control
Cohort
Meta-analysis
Systematic Review
Type of Paper
Intervention
Drug Trial
RCT Observational
Case report
Case series
Case control
Cohort
Meta-analysis
Systematic Review
What is the question?
Why this question?
How to answer this question?
Inclusion / Exclusion
Methodology
Actual stats calculation
Conclusions and relevance
RCT - Intervention
Interim analysis
No control group.
Significant conflict of interest
COD: Fudgy terminology
Small numbers
Politics
Fame
Money
True Truth
Define a “good” journal
Industry sponsored trial
BMJ 7%
NEJM 32%
Citations
Industry sponsored > other source of funding
Reduction in Impact Factor
1%
15%
Reprints
Oct 2010
Nov 2009
May 2015
…half baked …
…tendentious …
…ill advised …
Politics
Fame
Money
True Truth
https://www.sli.do/event/qt6qioy3/wall
What to make of negative studies?
riskofdeath
untreated risk of death
reductionofriskofdeath
untreated risk of death
reductionofriskofdeath
untreated risk of death
A B C
reductionofriskofdeath
untreated risk of death
adverse effects
riskofdeath
untreated risk of death
treatmentriskofdeath
untreated risk of death
no treatment
A
B
C
Why ask this question?
How to answer this question?
Is meta-analysis the right method to answer this question?
Meta-analysis
What’s the result?
How do we know the results valid?
Meta-analysis
G.I.G.O
Garbage
data
Garbage
result
Garbage
analysis
Where How Quality
Data
Reproducible Robust
Meta-analysis
How do we know the results valid?
Search databases / terms
Independent extraction
Predefined data form
Agreeing how to disagree
Meta-analysis
How do we know the results valid?
Publication bias
Funnel Plot
Data
Reproducible Robust
Problem of negative studies
“Perfect”
data
Garbage
result
Garbage
analysis
Observation vs intervention
Heterogeneity
Random vs fixed effect
Sensitivity Analysis
Meta-analysis
Meta-analysis
Heterogeneity - I2
Lower = less heterogeneity
Higher = more heterogeneity
describes the percentage of variation across studies
that is due to heterogeneity rather than chance
Meta-analysis
Random vs Fixed Effect
One true effect size
shared by all the studies
True effect vary so each
study estimates a
different effect size
(when significant
heterogeneity
exist)
Sensitivity Analysis
Meta-analysis
Performing analysis with different assumptions
to see if result remains the same
How to apply the results?
“Perfect”
data
Result
“Perfect”
analysis
Meta-analysis
Take home messages
Medutainment is real
and here to stay.
Paper critique is about logic.
If you are worried about Exit Paper critique,
you are probably suffer from imposter syndrome.
Perfect
Excellence
Good enough
@HonLiangTan
tanhonliang@gmail.com
tan.hon.liang@singhealth.com.sg
https://www.sli.do/event/qt6qioy3/infographic

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ETHER Senior Resident Stats Talk 29 Jan 2016