Slides as given for the Feb. 12, 2014 talk at Bay Area Software Testers. (btw, I failed to give credit for the "Stand Back!" t-shirt image, it was from the XKCD T-shirt here: http://store-xkcd-com.myshopify.com/products/try-science) Also forgot reference to the paper on Fibonacci numbers in planning poker affecting estimates: http://simula.no/publications/Simula.simula.1282/simula_pdf_file

1. fix you
estimating
bad habits
TED M. YOUNG
RENAISSANCE CODER & AGILE/LEAN HERETIC
AT GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE

2. estimating bugs
AND OTHER "OVERHEAD"

3. ignoring all previous
or other projects
REFERENCE CLASS FORECASTING (OUTSIDE VIEW)
LARGE ORGS HAVE AN ADVANTAGE HERE

4. The prevalent tendency to
underweight, or
ignore, distributional
information is perhaps the major
error of intuitive prediction.
TVERSKY & KAHNEMAN, 1977

5. Bad habit number 8
ignoring variability
of velocity
VELOCITY CAN EXHIBIT A ± 2× SPREAD OF VARIATION

6. not using statistics

7. STATISTICS

8. From: Troy Magennis 2012

9. using single values
NEGLECTING DISTRIBUTIONAL INFORMATION

10. WHAT WE THINK OUR ESTIMATE DISTRIBUTION IS
Image from "Estimates in Software Development", Dubakov 2013

11. flaw of averages
WHY EVERYTHING IS BEHIND SCHEDULE

12. ESTIMATE DISTRIBUTION IS MORE LIKE LOG -NORMAL OR WEIBULL
AT TRIBUTE SUBSTITUTION?
Image from "Estimates in Software Development", Dubakov 2013

13. Bad habit number 3
treating every type of
estimate the same way
EPICS, THEMES, STORIES, TASKS: POINTS FOR ALL!

14. Bad habit number
ignoring value of
thing being estimated
SPEND LOTS OF TIME ON THINGS OF LIT TLE VALUE
CUZ IT'S EASIER!

15. Bad habit number
think about your
estimate not theirs
YOU UNDERESTIMATE YOUR OWN COMPLETION TIME
BUT NOT OTHERS'!

16. estimating
things you'll
never work on
Bad habit number 5

17. Bad habit number 3
only estimating
touch time
DISCUSSION? COORDINATION? BAH, WHO NEEDS IT?

18. Bad habit number 9
estimating time
instead of
complexity or effort
POINTS/SIZES GET EQUATED TO TIME
IN BOTH DIRECTIONS!

19. completion date
or
hours of work?
THEY'RE NOT THE SAME THING

20. using non-linear
values for estimating
FIBONACCI AND NON -LINEAR SEQUENCES DECREASE ESTIMATES
USE T-SHIRT SIZES INSTEAD

21. using planning poker
AT TEMPT TO REMOVE ANCHORING BIAS
REPLACES IT WITH SOCIAL ANXIETY

22. estimating what we
think the story is
INSTEAD OF WHAT IT ACTUALLY IS
WHAT WILL BE DIFFERENT IF THIS STORY IS IMPLEMENTED?

23. premature estimation
HAVE YOU EXPLORED THE OPTIONS BEFORE COMMIT TING?

24. treating all estimates
as commitments
NOT APPROPRIATE
UNTIL WE GET BET TER AT ESTIMATING

25. practicing estimation
without deliberateness
PRACTICE ≠ DELIBERATE PRACTICE
REF. DEFINITION OF INSANITY

26. not experimenting
IF ESTIMATING DOESN'T DO EVERYTHING YOU NEED
HOW ARE YOU TRYING TO IMPROVE?

27. overvaluing
estimation
STOP FIGHTING OVER PRECISION
YOUR ACCURACY DOESN'T MAT TER EITHER

28. deliberate deception
THE MACHIAVELLI FACTOR
OR OVERLY SUBSERVIENT
BOWING TO POLITICAL PRESSURE

29. Bad habit number 1
assuming you
need estimates
MAYBE YOU DON'T?
HOW WOULD YOU FIND OUT?
#N OEST IMATES

30. Final Questions?
TWITTER - @JITTERTED
HTTP://ABOUT.ME/TEDMYOUNG
EMAIL - TEDYOUNG@GMAIL.COM

31. Resources
50 Quick Ideas to Improve Your User Stories (In-progress Leanpub e-book)
◦ http://leanpub.com/50quickideas
Throughput (Blog entry by Zsolt Fabók)
◦ http://zsoltfabok.com/blog/2014/01/throughput/
Intuitive Prediction (1977 paper by Kahneman & Tversky about the "planning fallacy")
◦ http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA047747
Judgment under uncertainty (1974 paper by Tversky & Kahneman)
◦ http://www.sciencemag.org/content/185/4157/1124.short
Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives' Decisions (Lovallo & Kahneman)
◦ http://j.mp/delusions-of-success
Modeling, Simulation & data mining (Slides from Troy Magennis & Larry Maccherone)
◦ http://j.mp/simulation-magennis
Estimates in Software Development (Dubakov, May 2013)
◦ http://www.targetprocess.com/articles/estimates-software-development.html