1. Contract Cities Association 51st Annual Municipal Seminar “ Forecasting our Economic Future” Jack Kyser Founding Economist The Kyser Center for Economic Research May 14, 2010

2. 2010 “ A Measured Economic Recovery”

3. More Positive Signs…

4. JOB COUNTS “READY TO TURN UP?” Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA EDD Most Recent

5. U.S. Retail Sales Source: U.S. Census Bureau

7. Nondefense Capital Goods Shipments Source: U.S. Census Bureau

8. Car & Light Truck Sales Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

9. But There Are Concerns

10. JOBLESS RATES AT HIGH LEVELS Sources: BLS, CA EDD Percent Unemployed (SA)

11. Characteristics of the Unemployed Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment, seasonally adjusted

12. Spot Energy Prices Source: Federal Reserve, St. Louis $/Mcf $/Barrel

13. U.S. Personal Savings Rate Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

14. U.S. Equity Prices

15. COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS Source: Federal Reserve

16. U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH Q/Q Change (at Annual Rate) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecast by LAEDC

17. U.S. Labor Market Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, forecasts by LAEDC

19. California Fundamentals Source: California Employment Development Dept . (EDD) Change in Nonfarm Jobs, SA, thousands Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year (Thousands) March 2010

20. JOB TRENDS BY METRO AREA Sources: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division 12-Month % Change to March 2010

21. Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) California Industry Winners and Losers Monthly Mar ’09 to Mar ’10 % Change in Average Employment (000s)

22. Characteristics of California’s Unemployed Source: California Employment Development Department (EDD) Employees, thousands

23. California Housing Market Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, California Association of Realtors

24. Unsold Inventory By Price Range California - Existing Homes March 2010 vs. March 2009 SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

25. California Fundamentals Yr/Yr Annual Employment % Change Source: EDD Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC

27. Regional Review

28. Los Angeles County Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year (Thousands) Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) March 2010

29. Orange County Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Source: California Employment Development Dept. Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year (000s) March 2010

30. Inland Empire Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Source: California Employment Development Dept. Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year (000s) March 2010

31. San Francisco Metro Area Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) March 2010

32. Oakland Metro Area Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) March 2010

33. Trends in Key Industries

34. TOTAL CARGO HANDLED at LA/ LB Ports Sources: Ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach April 2010 Total TEUs: 1,080,343 Annual % Change: +14.8% Thousands of TEUs

35. TOTAL CARGO HANDLED at Oakland Port Source: Port of Oakland March 2010 Total TEUs: 186,956 Annual % Change: + 10.5% Thousands of TEUs

36. TECHNOLOGY JOB TRENDS IN CALIFORNIA Thousands of Jobs Source: California Employment Development Department

37. HOTEL OCCUPANCY RATES Source: PKF Consulting Occupancy Rates (%)

38. Source: PKF Consulting Hotel Room Rates

39. Trends in Trailing Industries

40. Sources: BEA, CA BOE Year/Year % Change California Personal Income & Taxable Sales

41. California New Home Permits Source: California Construction Industry Research Board SAAR, thousands of units

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