Dr. Elwynn Taylor - What The Weather Holds
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What The Weather Holds - Dr. Elwynn Taylor, Iowa State University, from the 2013 World Pork Expo, June 5 - 7, 2013, Des Moines, IA, USA. More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2013-world-pork-expo
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Dr. Elwynn Taylor - What The Weather Holds
- 1. What the Weather Holds for 2013 and Beyond (Implications for Corn Yield & Price) Elwynn Taylor Iowa State University setaylor@iastate.edu www.twitter.com/elwynntaylor • Likely US yield (4 June 2013) US Corn 147 BPA (9.23 K/ha)
- 2. May starts with snow Weather Extremes Seldom Benefit Crops 101F on 14th flood on 24th•
- 3. Age of Risk Management • Some years: Very Good Crop • Some years: Very Poor Crop
- 4. Drought: Impact & Adaptation Washington University: a&s magazine Spring 2013
- 5. • Above the US Corn Yield Trend Six Consecutive Years
- 6. Why is US corn production up? • Corn has become profitable. • No other reasons..
- 7. Corn Prices vs. Costs 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 $perbushel Season-average Price Cost per BushelLow yield year Chad E Heart
- 8. Change of Crop Demand • Food (Human or Livestock) – Food demand increases with population – Livestock demand increases with wealth • Fiber ?? • ENERGY DEMAND (Bio-fuel) – Increases with wealth – Increases with population – Increases with Diminished supply of conventional fuel •
- 9. Bio-Fuel (Utah, 1944) It took 1/3 of our farm to produce the “fuel” for our farm equipment. We found it much better to buy fuel for a tractor, and use the land to produce food. People are now paying enough for fuel to go back to growing fuel.
- 10. Global Energy Demand is Rising Rapidly Because Energy Consumption and Income are Linked
- 11. Why Bio-Fuel ? • We Like our Energy • Our hunger for Energy can influence the Climate of the Planet • Bio-Energy approaches renewable in the short term • Bio-Energy is a “food-fuel” trade-off
- 13. Midwest Precipitation Has a multi-cyclic nature May be a “Climate Change” indicator in that a general increase is consistent with increased Atmospheric & Water Temperature
- 14. • A year as extreme as 2012 is seldom followed by a full return to normal.
- 15. There are 2 Kinds of Drought • Drought of “Hunger for Food” • Drought of “Thirst for Water – Amos 8:11 Sometimes called: Agricultural and Hydrological drought Or Short Term and Long Term drought
- 16. •
- 17. • The winter pattern still resembles La Nina Dry
- 18. ENSO has a Global Signal • During years of El Nino – US Soy & Corn do well – US & Canada Wheat suffers from Drought • During years of La Nina – US Corn at risk – Canada Wheat usually good – Canada sometimes floods Argentina responds to ENSO much as does US corn & soy
- 19. ENSO History 2010- May 2013 • The La Niña began 22 July 2010 • The La Niña ended 21 March 2012
- 20. Trans-Canada • 21 June 2010 ET
- 21. Europe now •
- 22. • 501 year record
- 23. La Niña Rolling a “7” or a “6” is a drought. Corn > $4.00/bu La Ni ña Iowa State University Extension 70% Chance of Below Trend Yield 147 $5.53 160 144 162 $4.55 155 $4.85 140 $6.45 176 Dec 2013 price by Wisner 5/14/2013 $= 84.3223+ 0.0029xBPAxBPA – 0.9623xBPA http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf Tue: Dec corn $5.44 -- expectation 149BPA
- 24. Sea Now, & March 21 March 21
- 25. • Age of El Nino: favorable Midwest Yield • Age of La Nina: Erratic Yield • Strongest La Nina events. •
- 26. stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4 137
- 27. ISMMS001
- 28. Soil Moisture History • 2012: Oct 1 - Nov 19
- 29. Summary • Hurricane season expected to be active • Drought likely to persist/expand in West • Temperature (High &/or Low) significant • Climate will likely be increasingly erratic (25 year interval)
- 30. Elwynn Taylor Iowa State University Climatologist END Twitter.com/elwynntaylor
Notes de l'éditeur
- http://www.fs.fed.us/r4/ashley/heritage/histories/swett-ranch.shtmlMore than half of our farm was for production of “fuel” for our horse-power. We had a car and soon bought a tractor. Food was worth a lot… A “minimum wage” person worked 2 hours to earn a dozen eggs, today it only takes 12 min of work. We found it much better to raise food for a good income and buy fuel at 25¢ per gallon. Fuel stayed the same relative price right up until the 1990s. Now it is looking like it might be good to go back to farming fuel again.
- http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.html The “Bio Energy” effort is driven by overall energy demand and a realization that consumption of fossil fuel is likely the major contributor to escalating Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
- The very low precipitation years tend to take more than one subsequent year to return to normal.
- Size = 4.5
- Dashed line represents the “realized potential Iowa corn yield” since 1932 (when weather is “ideal” for the crop it achieves the dashed line, all other years the yield is reduced below the potential line directly or indirectly by adverse weather. The economists are quick to tell us that the “average $ return for corn is $0” so we see how important volatility is to YOU. This is why we are no better off at 150bpa than we were at 50bpa.