Speaker: Michael Cucek, Adjunct Professor, Department of Political Science at Temple University, Japan Campus and Adjunct Fellow at ICAS More event info: https://www.tuj.ac.jp/icas/event/reiwa-one-a-political-outlook/

1. 26 June 2019
Reiwa One: A Political Outlook
The Parliament
Temple University Japan

2. Reiwa One: In Introduction
 Key issues in the upcoming election
 Themes of the Abe Administration
 Practices
 End remarks

3. Reiwa One: Key Issues
Social Policy Foreign Policy Energy Policy Constitution Scandals
Consumption tax
rise in October
The 20 million
yen problem
Signs of
economic
slowdown
Falling birthrates

4. Reiwa One: Key Issues
Social Policy Foreign Policy Energy Policy Constitution Scandals
Consumption tax
rise in October
The Trump
Volatility
problem
The 20 million
yen problem
Russo-Japanese
peace treaty
Signs of
economic
slowdown
Korean-Japan
relations
Falling birthrates China’s hybrid
encroachments

5. Reiwa One: Key Issues
Social Policy Foreign Policy Energy Policy Constitution Scandals
Consumption tax
rise in October
The Trump
Volatility
problem
Nuclear restarts/
new
construction
The 20 million
yen problem
Russo-Japanese
peace treaty
Retreat from the
FIT
Signs of
economic
slowdown
Korean-Japan
relations
Falling birthrates China’s hybrid
encroachments

6. Reiwa One: Key Issues
Social Policy Foreign Policy Energy Policy Constitution Scandals
Consumption tax
rise in October
The Trump
Volatility
problem
Nuclear restarts/
new
construction
Including the
SDF in Article 9
The 20 million
yen problem
Russo-Japanese
peace treaty
Retreat from the
FIT
Emergency
powers
Signs of
economic
slowdown
Korean-Japan
relations
Free education
through high
school
Falling birthrates China’s hybrid
encroachments
1 prefecture –
2 Senators

7. Reiwa One: Key Issues
Social Policy Foreign Policy Energy Policy Constitution Scandals
Consumption tax
rise in October
The Trump
Volatility
problem
Nuclear restarts/
new
construction
Including the
SDF in Article 9
Morikake
scandals
The 20 million
yen problem
Russo-Japanese
peace treaty
Retreat from the
FIT
Emergency
powers
Cabinet member
remarks
Signs of
economic
slowdown
Korean-Japan
relations
Free education
through high
school
Aegis ashore
miscalculations
Falling birthrates China’s hybrid
encroachments
1 prefecture –
2 Senators
Maruyama affair

8. Reiwa One: LDP Promises
 Realization of Constitutional revision
 A 600 trillion yen economy
 Raising the consumption tax according to schedule in October
 Continue program of reactor restarts, with local understanding
 A barrier-free society of people living in harmony
 Make workplaces more women friendly (including the LDP)
 No loosening of DPRK sanctions with resolution of abductees issue
 Seek the return of the inherent territory Northern Territories

9. Reiwa One: CDPJ And The Other Parties
 Prevent Constitutional revision under Abe Shinzo
 Repudiation of the claims of the success of Abenomics
[falsified labor statistics scandal]
 Postpone the raising of the consumption tax
[so what happens to the new childcare entitlement?]
 Pursue a nuclear-free society
 Repeal of the law on collective security
 Suspend the construction of the FRF at Henoko

10. Reiwa One: Electoral Lines
 What happened to the Double Election?
 Does the Opposition have issues that will entice voters to
the polls?
 Do the voters care about Abe Administration weaknesses?

11. Reiwa One: NHK Cabinet Support Ratings
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65
Obuchi
Mori
Koizumi
Abe 1
Fukuda
Aso
Hatoyama
Kan
Noda
Abe 2

12. Reiwa One: NHK Party Support
36.7
3.1 2.6 5.1
1.2 2.5 0.2
7.2
41.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Survey of 6-9 June 2019

13. Reiwa One: Electoral Lines
 What happened to the Double Election?
 Does the Opposition have issues that will entice voters to
the polls?
 Do the voters care about Abe Administration weaknesses?
 Are the opposition parties cooperating?
 Are there last minute swing issues?

14. Reiwa One: Abe’s Tenure
 Historic figure

15. Reiwa One: Abe Is Now #3
2886
2798
2742
2616
1980
1806
1575
745
KATSURA Taro
SATO Eisaku
ABE Shinzo *
YOSHIDA Shigeru
KOIZUMI Jun’ichiro
NAKASONE Yasuhiro
HAYATO Ikeda
HATOYAMA Ichiro
* Total # of days on
26 June 2019

16. Reiwa One: No Legacy?
 National Security Council (and an NSA)
 Specially Designated Secrets Act
 The collective security acts
 Taming of the CLB
 Economic recovery
 6 ½ years of national election victories

17. Reiwa One: Abe’s Tenure
 Historic figure
 Leader of liberal international order
 Premier Trump wrangler

18. Reiwa One:
Abe’s Tenure
“Rich, White Idiot
Does Not Know
That People Are
Listening To Him
When He Is
Hallucinating”

19. Reiwa One: Abe’s Tenure
 Historic figure
 Leader of liberal international order
 Premier Trump wrangler
 Beloved of the revisionist ultra-right wing
 TINA

20. Reiwa One: The Nature Of The Factions
 An ambitious and ruthless
wannabe prime minister
 Separate vision of where
Japan should be heading
 Cultivation of new
industries/professional
support groups
 A cautious personnel manager
 Identical visions of where
Japan should be heading
 Care for existing
industries/professional
support groups
1960s 2019

21. Reiwa One: The Faction Leaders
Interloper
Nikai Toshihiro
Treacherous
gaffe master
Aso Taro Kishida Fumio
Sweet
non-entity
The other
brother
Takeshita Wataru
The brooding
bridesmaid
Ishiba Shigeru

22. Reiwa One: Dream (?) Prime Ministers
Abe Shinzo
Forever
Suga Yoshihide Koizumi Shinjiro
The Once and
Future King
The golf
partner
Motegi Toshimitsu Kono Taro
The New
Weirdo

23. Miki Kono Kishi SatoIkeda
1950-60s
Komoto Nakasone Fukuda TanakaOhira
Komura
Watanabe Abe TakeshitaMiyazawa
Suzuki
DPJ
1970s
1980s
1990
s
Yamazaki
Mitsuzuka Obuchi
2000s
Santo Ishihara
Kamei
Nikai
Ibuki
AsoHosoda
Mori
Machimura
Nukaga
Hashimoto
Oshima
Kishida
KonoKoga
SEIWAKAI
清和会
SHISUIKAI
志帥会
KOCHIKAI
宏池会
HEISEI KENKYUKAI
平成研究会
BANCHO
SEISAKU
KENKYUJO
番町政策
研究所
KINMIRAI
SEIJI
KENKYUKAI
近未来
政治研究会
IKOKAI
為公会
Takeshita

24. Reiwa One: Why Should I Care?
Halford Mackinder
1861-1947
“Who rules East Europe commands
the Heartland;
who rules the Heartland commands the
World-Island;
who rules the World-Island controls
the world.”

25. Reiwa One: Why Should I Care?
“Who masters Appointments is master of
the Factions;
who masters the Factions is the master of
the LDP presidential election;
who masters the LDP presidential election
is master of The Party;
who masters The Party is master of The
Government
and The Government is master of Japan.”

26. Reiwa One: Abe’s Tenure
 Historic figure
 Leader of liberal international order
 Premier Trump wrangler
 Beloved of the revisionist ultra-right wing
 TINA
 True believer in constitutional revision *

27. Reiwa One: Tricks
 Not allowing sessions of the Diet Budget Committees
 Only one Question Time (party leader’s debate)
 Non-appearance of Cabinet members at the FCCJ

28. Reiwa One: So…
 Securing of friendly 2/3 majorities in both Houses
 On schedule application of the consumption tax rise
 Full-scale pursuit of constitutionalization of the SDF
 A very successful Olympics

29. Reiwa One: End Remarks
Japanese politics is
becoming so predictable…
…I’m afraid I don’t understand it anymore.

30. Michael Thomas Cucek
Twitter: @MichaelTCucek