The document discusses analyzing socio-economic vulnerability to climate change. It provides an overview of existing methodologies for assessing vulnerability, including utilizing socio-economic data and existing scenario models. An example scenario model from California shows how vulnerability may differ across demographic groups and economic sectors under different flooding conditions. Key points are that a society's future vulnerability to climate change will differ from today's, and both wealthy and poor groups can be negatively affected by extreme weather.

1. Photo: Politiets helikoptertjeneste Skredulykka i Ålesund Rapport frå utvalet som har gjennomgått skredulykka i Ålesund 26. mars 2008
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Training for Adaptation
Socio-economic Vulnerability

2. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Socio-Economic
Socio-Economic Climate Vulnerability
This module provides a breakdown of socio-economic vulnerabilities and the methods for analysing them
and will cover the following:
• Utilising existing methodologies
• Generating socio-economic data
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

3. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Socio-Economic
Socio-economic climate vulnerability
Decreasing the vulnerability of socio-economic sectors and ecological systems to
natural climate variability through a more informed choice of policies, practices and
technologies will, in many cases, reduce the long-term vulnerability of these
systems to climate change. (IPCC 2000a)
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

4. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Socio-Economic
Why is it important to look at socio-economic climate vulnerability?
Households that have access to resources and social
networks - are ‘resource-rich’- are more resilient and recover
more quickly from a stress/stimulus. Blaikie et al.
Issues of poverty and inequality—or differential resource
access are important determinants of vulnerability. But this is
not a simple contrast between the developed and developing
world.
Different groups and places within countries differ in their
ability to adapt and that divisions between rich and poor
translate into differentials in people’s ability to adjust and in
access to adjustments. The focus should then be on poor
people, rather than a focus on poor countries,
Vulnerability “is not exclusively related to poverty” and that
both the wealthy and the poor can be adversely affected by
the impact of extreme weather events.
Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I. and Wisner, B. 1994. At Risk: Natural
Climate Adaptation Hazards, People’s Vulnerability, and Disasters. London: Routledge.
C. Aall & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

5. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Socio-Economic
Why is it important to look at socio-economic climate vulnerability?
The interaction of climate change and the process of economic globalisation is resulting form of
“double exposure,” from which a complex sets of “winners and losers” is arising (O’Brien and
Leichenko 2000).
The concept of “double exposure” is important in regions that are characterised by economic
marginalization and high-risk environments: here people may be potential “double losers”. In other
contexts, economic gains experienced as a result of globalisation can be offset by damages resulting
from climate change.
The important point is that the
“winners” and “losers” resulting
from the interaction of the two
processes may be different from
the set of “winners” and “losers”
which are identified when each of
the two processes is examined
independently.
O’Brien, K. and Leichenko, R. 2000. “Double Exposure: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change
Within the Context of Globalization.” Global Environmental Change 10: 221 - 232.
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

6. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Socio-Economic
Socio-economic climate vulnerability data
Data on trends in human and societal
conditions can be obtained from
published and unpublished institutional
and governmental databases (e.g.,
National Bureaus of Statistics, like
Statistics Norway, Statistics Sweden etc)
and from research in fields such as
anthropology, sociology, political
science, economics, and indigenous
studies.
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

7. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Socio-Economic
Socio-economic climate vulnerability data
An in-depth analysis of human and societal trends requires a
wide array of data sources:
• Economic data
• Employment
• Trade, imports, exports,
• Processing and sale of natural/other resources.
• Public health information
• Census data - general demographics, education, family
structure, employment, and migration patterns.
• Election data - trends in governance and the implementation
and enforcement of policies
• Surveys and interviews with local people
Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, ACIA, 2004
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

8. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Socio-Economic
Utilising existing ‘standard’ methodologies
Somewhere ‘behind’ all forms of public planning lies - either
implicitly or explicitly - some sort of societal change scenario
thinking.
To avoid wasting resources, start by looking for what is already on
the table before developing something totally new!
The challenge then is to ask the following question…
How does the expected societal changes that come out
of the scenario affect climate vulnerability in society?
The other option is, of course, to develop a specialised societal
change scenario for the specific purpose of assessing climate
vulnerability.
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

9. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Socio-Economic
Example climate vulnerability societal change scenario model
Source: model developed by Western Norway Research Institute and Eastern Norway
Research Institute for the Norwegian Association of Local and Regional Authorities
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

10. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Socio-Economic
Example climate
vulnerability societal
change scenario:
Flooding in California
Table taken from a
presentation on Socio-
economic vulnerability to
climate change, delivered by
Eli Moore Pacific Institute
October 19th, 2011.
http://dialogue4health.org/webforums/
PDFs-10-19-11/Moore.pdf
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

11. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Socio-Economic
Example climate
vulnerability societal
change scenario:
Flooding in California
Table taken from a
presentation on Socio-
economic vulnerability to
climate change, delivered by
Eli Moore Pacific Institute
October 19th, 2011.
http://dialogue4health.org/webforums/
PDFs-10-19-11/Moore.pdf
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

12. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Socio-Economic
Example climate
vulnerability societal
change scenario:
Flood damage categories
(Smith and Ward 1998:35)
Smith, K. and Ward, R., 1998, Flood, Physical Process and Human Impacts, Chichester, John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

13. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Socio-Economic
Example climate
vulnerability societal
change scenario:
Flood damage categories
(Smith and Ward 1998:35)
Smith, K. and Ward, R., 1998, Flood, Physical Process and Human Impacts, Chichester, John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

14. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Socio-Economic
Final key points
• The vulnerability of tomorrows society to
climate change will differ from the
vulnerabilities of todays society.
• Vulnerability “is not exclusively related to
poverty” and that both the wealthy and the
poor can be adversely affected by the impact
of extreme weather events.
• The “winners” and “losers” resulting from the
interaction of the processes of climate
change and globalisation may be different
from the set of “winners” and “losers” which
are identified when each of the two
processes is examined independently.
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource