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Four futures: CBSR2050 1

Learning together (BASAAR)
Interreg IVA Project 2009-2010

Asia as a key driver of global change
economy – environment –
migration – investments –
future – partnership –
values – dialog - sustainability

Lead partner
Uusimaa Regional Council,
Helsinki Region, Finland

27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson

BASAAR: Learning together 2

benchmarks – feedback – foresight – action proposals

Comments from Open Days
Benchmark 7-9/2010
Asia in CBSR Experts in Asia
2009 and CBSR
5-8/2010
Monitoring Progress
Feedback CBSR coop
Students, immigrants 10/2010
Cases: STX, Hamburg Recommendations
2009-2010 1. Asia CBSR
2. CBSR cooperation Final Conference
3. Local actions 1 Day: Expert Seminar
Scenarios ½ Day: High level
• Global context 5-9/2010
• Local impacts 25-26.11.2010
2-4/2010


3

The old brand:
Welfare, creativity , innovation ...
A few lessons learned

Four Futures: CBSR2050
Adapting to a new geography
New threats and opportunities

Building the new brand:
Dialog about sustainability
A European Project


4

The old brand was doing well
Nordic Counties  Welfare, security ...
Stockholm Capital of Scandinavia ...
Finland Innovation and creativity ...
Baltic States Open economies ...

But, new views at the horizon ...
Quand la Chine s'éveillera ...
le monde tremblera
When China awakes ...
the world will tremble
Napoleon
Alain Peyrefitte 1975


5
CASE STUDIES
What can we learn from recent projects?

 Baltic Pearl, St Petersburg, Russia
 Wholesale Commodity Market, Kalmar, Sweden
 Nordic China Centre, Kouvola, Finland
 STX Shipyard, Turku, Finland
 City Transport System, Uppsala, Sweden

27/08/2010

6
BALTIC PEARL
St Petersburg
Global quality standards


Wholesale Commodity market 7

Kalmar, Sweden
Excellent location in Northern Europe:
close to Berlin, London
and St Petersburg

High quality of life
for Chinese entrepreneurs
working in Kalmar


Nordic China Centre 8

Kouvola, Finland

Idea: Fastest rout to EU
Initially:
• Issues with product quality
• Immigration permits

Now:
• Electric cars ...


The largest luxury Cruisers 9

Turku, Finland
Ultimate know-how
Cutting edge
Small global
market

Large local
subcontactor
network


City Transportation System
Uppsala, Sweden

The Korean interest:
build a test track in
Europe
find a place with winter
conditions
find a place with good
flight contacts to South
Korea
find a City with a good Jan-Henrik Johansson
climate for innovations

City Transportation System Jan-Henrik Johansson
Uppsala, Sweden

Large scale Develoment Projects 12

Some lessons learned

 Asian investors often lack experience of
entering mature markets.
 Equally, the Nordic municipality is seldom
ready to meet the cultural challenges involved.
 To succeed, large-scale community
development projects with Asian partners
need local participation from business
community and public sector.


REFLEXIONS FROM 2050 13

Bringin the pieces together

 The Caleidoscope
 “Politics is the art of the possible”, Otto Von Bismarck
 Two Comments from the BASAAR Web


SOME BASIC FACTS 14

to start with, in case you forgot


15

Knowledge
Society
Frugal innovation

Will it change the rules of
competition for competence?

Which are the generic resources
of Northern Europe?


16

Ageing
Ushi Okushima become 108 in 2010

In a few years over 50% of the
population of Japan will be over 50

“The longevity revolution affects
every country, every community
and almost every household. It
promises to restructure the
economy, reshape the family,
redefine politics and even
rearrange the geopolitical order
over the coming century.”
Fred Parce, 2010


17

Searching
for a partner
The demographic structure
in Asia erodes cohesion and
is building a major cause for
social unrest.

But, the Muslim world is
young …


18

Pollution hits China's farmland
BBC NEWS 23 April 2007

More than 10% of China's farm
land is polluted, posing a
"severe threat" to the nation's
food production, state media
reports.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6582571.stm


19

Free Trade
Zones
Triggered growth in China

Now the Chinese
development model moves
west with money earned at
home.


At the World Exhibition in Shanghai 20

The Moomin-family in front of a dilemma

Censorship authorities:
You must make a clear distinction
between good and evil. ... The
Boogeyman is disarming in his
own way and can be understood.

In China, the individual is
subjected to the community.
The Moomins are the central
But the individualistic Moomin dad characters in a series of children's
leaves to find himself and the books by the illustrator and writer Tove
Jansson from Finland
meaning of life on a lonely island.


GLOBAL RESEARCH REPORT - CHINA 21

Research and collaboration in the new geography of science
http://researchanalytics.thomsonreuters.com/m/pdfs/grr-china-nov09.pdf

China’s research output
has increased dramatically
since 1999 while most
nations remained fairly
stable.
During the same period
the USA increased its
output from 265,000 to
340,000 publications per
year, an increase of
around 30% compared to
China’s more than four-
fold growth.


22

Political anesthesia 2005
Can political group mind and
decision making processes really be
completely and fatally ineffective? …

New direction 2009
Our societies are adequately equipped to
withstand the risks and dangers that come
from all vagaries of climate, whatever their
cause may be.
http://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/mackinderProgramme/theHartwellPaper/


23

Early Warning 1972
The Club of Rome’s Report created an
extensive global debate which still goes on but
it was unsuccesful in creating a system for
global governance.

Final Warning 2009
To survive mankind needs nuclear energy and
agressive agricultural development on areas that
remain arable.


24

Visit the site and add
http://www.wikivision.fi/basaar your point of view

 Reports
 Scenarios and drivers of change
 Public debate
 Action proposals


“Don't worry about the environment and 25

the resource issues”
“Human beings have developed new technologies to address issues of resources and
environmental bottlenecks in the global development. Countries and regions that are open,
and integrated into the globalization process, need not worry about slower economic growth
and their welfare to decrease, unless they themselves select self-isolation. Environmental
damage is the result of wars and irrational behaviour of human beings, not the result of
business competition.

In the foreseeable future, as long as nation-states exist and the global political system is not
unified, global competition for resources is inevitable, unless private ownership is eliminated.
Taking developed countries as a proof, the environment will become increasingly better when
the countries economy and society develop to a certain level. Solving this issue depends on
whether developed countries are willing to share the know-how of new technologies and if one
can improve current ways of production and wasteful lifestyles. .”


“CBSR has many advantages and the key is 26

to take action to push the cooperation, but not
to accuse anybody”
“Stop blaming China and other Asian countries for the problems of resources, environment,
climate changes and food security issues. [Asian countries] have very little to do with these
problems, which are the consequences of the Western developed economies. Western
countries, in the past and in the present, have applied uneconomical production methods and
excessively wastefully consumed the resources. That is the cause of the serious
environmental problems of today.

Furthermore, Western multinational companies continue to conduct those uneconomical and
polluting ways of production in China and they import a lot of resources for production, and
that causes serious damage to China's environment. China is a victim of its polluted
environment and climate change. Most of the products are produced by Western transnational
corporations and exported to Western countries. The pollution of the production remains in
China, so the westerners enjoyed and kept their own environment clean. This is unfair.

So, stop blaming. Let’s sit down to discuss how to solve the problems.”


27
CENTAL BALTIC SEA REGION 2050
Getting ready the regional plans ready

 Key Questions
 Scenarios
 Agenda for taking control


28

Two Key Questions ...
Global Competition for Resources:
 How well will the international community
succeed in making development in Asia
possible without degrading the
environment and making life on earth
unsustainable?

Economy of the CBSR:
 How well will the relatively small economy
and limited resources of the CBSR be
integrated into global markets and
competitive business activities?


Four Futures: Central Baltic Sea 2050 29
Integration with World Economy

Economy of CBSR
Scenario 4 Scenario 1

Married Partners for
to Asia Sustainability

Depletion of
resources and Global governance of
unmanaged Global competition for resources physical, natural and
pollution human resources

Scenario 3 Scenario 2

Disorganised Slow Life,
Society New Life

Isolation from World Economy

SCENARIO 1: Partners for Sustainability 30

Resources: International agreements regulate growth
Integration: CBSR is a global business partner

 Growth is supported by international agreements
regulating environmental protection, pollution, and
resource utilisation
 Human capital in CBSR is a competitive resource and
the region is an active part of the global economy and
the related business networks.
 The region is providing green technology and
innovative products and services.
 Moderate immigration and economic strength ensure
that the public sector in the CBSR can provide good
services.
 CBSR regions compete jointly and and individually for a
global role.


SCENARIO 2: Slow Life, New Life 31

Resources: International agreements regulate growth
Integration: CBSR is an isolated periphery

 Sustainability is achieved through global and legal
agreements on resource utilization and conservation.
 Asia forms business partnerships with Australia, Africa
and South America, and is self-sufficient in science and
technology.
 Isolation and slow/no economic growth creates need to
rethink values of life and recreates the Baltic identity.
 Focus on new niche economies, green and appropriate
technology. Ecotourism is a growing business.
 Exodus of knowledge workers is a bigger problem than
immigration.
 Weakening public services are partly complemented by
education and health care services provided by private
sector.


SCENARIO 4: Married to Asia 32
Resources: Unregulated competition for natural and human resources
Integration: CBSR is a global business partner

 Public and private Asian actors dominate international
business.
 Asian multinationals are present in the CBSR through
subsidiaries and Baltic companies find opportunities as
subcontractors for Asian MNCs.
 Asians provide global education and heath care services
globally.
 Russian, Asian and Baltic actors cooperate to mitigate
climate change.
 CBSR R&D and knowledge workers are in global demand.
 Strong global market for food, health services, skills and
education.
 Immigration and widening income distribution create social
tension.
 Competition for Asian business weakens regional
cooperation.


SCENARIO 3: Disorganized Society 33
Resources: Unregulated competition for natural and human resources
Integration: CBSR is an isolated periphery

 Unregulated global competition is dominated by
multinationals.
 Protectionism in Asia and USA limits global trade and
increases political tension.
 Lack of resources leads to fragmented urban and rural
communities.
 The global food crises becomes critical. The food industry
becomes a leading export sector for CBSR.
 Biotech is the focus of innovation and R&D.
 Growing inequality in Asia and in the develop world
creates resentment and tension among population
groups.
 Environmental immigration and exodus of knowledge
workers in the CBSR. Immigration restrictions are in force
for unskilled workers.


Partner Network 34

Objective: Monitoring and preparing for global impact

1. Exchange of planning information
• Annual review meetings / global trends and major projects
2. Joint foresight and impact assessment
• Local Impact assessments by country/region
3. New Indicators
EU: “GDP and beyond, Measuring progress in a changing world”
• Baltic Sea Strategy, EU2020
• Sustainability and welfare
• Immigration, services
• Energy, environment and climate change


New Indicators: GDP and beyond 35

Measuring progress in a changing world COM(2009) 433 final

1. New Indicators for Regional Development
2. Sustainability dialog with our Asian partners
Topics:
EU2020 - Sustainability and welfare - Immigration, services - Energy, environment -
Sustainable Development vs Harmonious Development
Indicators:
Ecological footprint, Full cost accounting (FCA), Green gross domestic product
(Green GDP), Gross domestic product (GDP), Happy Planet Index (HPI), Human
Development Index (HDI), ISEW (Index of sustainable economic welfare), Living
planet index, Quality-of-life index, Gini_Coefficient
Project:
 Network: Visit Best Practise sites
 Inventory: A preliminary list of measures
 Visualization: New tools for communication
 Exhibition: Quality of life on display


36
Monitoring and prioritizing trends
HIGH
ASSESS IMPACT PREPARE ACTION

1. Food security 1. Academic networks
2. Services for knowledge workers 2. Culture and language
3. Asian FDI in CBSR 3. Presence in Asia
CERTAINTY

4. Brain drain 4. EU Cooperation regarding Asia

ASSESS RELEVANCE MONITOR CHANGE

1 ....... 1. Immigration
2. CBSR Economy
3. Energy supply and demand
4. Adaptation measures
LOW

LOW IMPACT HIGH


37

CBSR, towards a new global brand

Small is Smart
and a Global Partner

Energy conservation, environmental protection

Health, services and welfare innovations

Research, science and creativity networks

The global business partner, ready and present

New global order: Sustainability Dialog


… as time goes by … 38

Waves of Political Focus
• Scenarios coexist and blend into each other
• Different regions experience the stages differently and at different times

Married to Asia Slow Life, New Life

Partners for Sustainability Disconnected Communities

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Age 0 20 40 60 80
0 20 40 60 80
20 40 60 80


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