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January - June, 2013
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Wright Report
Perspectives and Overview of Northern California’s
Residential Real Estate Market:
Including Statistics and Trends for the United States, State of California, and Northern
California Counties. Research, Charts, and Graphs for areas within Sacramento, Placer, Yolo,
El Dorado & San Joaquin Counties.
January to June, 2013
TTHHEE WWRRIIGGHHTT RREEPPOORRTT
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Wright Report
The Wright Report
Prepared by:
Prepared By: Joel Wright
Document Version: Final
Last Updated On: September, 2013
January - June, 2013
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Wright Report
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported
License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/
or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco,
California, 94105, USA.
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Wright Report
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS....................................................................................................................... 4
THE EXPERTS WEIGH IN:.................................................................................................................. 6
Sacramento Appraiser: Ryan Lundquist ........................................................................ 6
Rental Housing Association: Jim Lofgren....................................................................... 8
MARKET UPDATE:............................................................................................................................ 9
THE ECONOMY: ............................................................................................................................. 14
BANKING & LENDING: ................................................................................................................... 15
DISTRESSED PROPERTIES:.............................................................................................................. 18
COUNTY STATISTICS: ..................................................................................................................... 21
Sacramento County..................................................................................................... 21
Placer County .............................................................................................................. 22
El Dorado County......................................................................................................... 24
Yolo County ................................................................................................................. 24
San Joaquin County ..................................................................................................... 26
HISTORICAL PRICE GRAPHS: .......................................................................................................... 28
PLACER COUNTY:........................................................................................................................... 29
SACRAMENTO COUNTY:................................................................................................................ 31
RESOURCES:................................................................................................................................... 39
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
As the residential real estate market makes a comeback in Sacramento
we saw a huge price increase from June 2012 to June 2013 (+44.5%).
Where we will land is not yet known, but it appears that a slowdown
seems inevitable for several reasons.
• Interest rates rose dramatically in June 2013 on the
announcement by the FED that they would begin to taper off QE-
3. Higher interest rates are inevitable.
• Inventory has increased dramatically - 155% from January to
September; but with the increase in sellers the buyer demand
remains the same.
• Distressed property inventory has declined dramatically. Banks’
inventory of REOs has dropped as they are more hesitant to
foreclose. Short sales are also becoming rare as delinquent
owners can increasingly get a loan modification or sell their
home for a profit.
• Institutional investors are reducing the number of purchases as
prices increase and margins decline.
Unfortunately, the housing recovery has not been the spring board to
national recovery that was expected. While, on one hand, the stock
market has reached all-time highs, and banking and financial
institutions bring in significant profits, conversely, the unemployment
rate is still high, job growth is slow, and median income remains
stagnant.
Ultimately, it appears the greater Sacramento market will continue to
rise, and there is plenty of room for price growth. So despite
continued national economic troubles, housing will keep driving
forward.
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THE EXPERTS WEIGH IN:
Sacramento Appraiser: Ryan Lundquist
The Sacramento Market is Beginning to Shift Again
The market in Sacramento experienced a dramatic shift just over one year ago as property
values bottomed out, inventory dried up and investors purchased homes at an exponential
pace. Now the market has begun to shift again and is beginning to “normalize”. We are
seeing less cash sales, properties are taking slightly longer to sell and there has been an
uptick in housing supply. The market overall is still increasing in property value, but the
gap between sales and listings is definitely getting smaller, which has made it crucial to
study the market and list properties at a reasonable price level.
Having less cash purchases has effectively created slightly more space for owner-
occupant buyers as well as FHA offers to be accepted. For instance, FHA saw a 2%
increase in July and August 2013 in Sacramento County. Part of this increase is due to an
uptick in housing supply and less cash in the market, but some of it may also be due to
FHA announcing in early July that it will now accept buyers who have been through
foreclosure from as little as one year ago. This new rule will help create a larger pool of
buyers ready for the market just as inventory has begun to increase again.
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In light of the median price skyrocketing over the course of the year, the market under
$200,000 has become far more competitive for first-time buyers and investors. The vast
bulk of cash purchases are still under $200,000 in Sacramento County, though keep in
mind about 25% of all sales between $200,000 to $300,000 were cash in Q2. That’s a
strong market segment.
Ultimately the market is still heavily in favor of sellers since there is only a one to two-
month supply of inventory available, but the market has definitely begun to shift in
Sacramento.
Ryan Lundquist is a Certified Real Estate Appraiser in the Greater Sacramento Area. He also
specializes in reducing property taxes. Check out his great Blog at
www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com or contact directly at (916) 595-3735.
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Rental Housing Association: Jim Lofgren
Rental housing inspection programs enacted by cities and counties continue to be the major
issue facing rental owner and managers in the Greater Sacramento region. Under the typical
inspection programs, owners must register their properties with the local jurisdiction, pay an
annual fee, allow code enforcement officials to inspect properties for compliance with health
and safety codes, and provide residents with certain government approved forms.
The Sacramento City Council recently modified its inspection ordinance. At the urging of RHA,
the City Council lowered the annual fee by $12, from $28 per unit to $16. The Council also
granted rental owners the option of self-certification if their property passed the initial
inspection. Under self-certification, annual inspections are required, but can be performed by
either the owner or an employee or third party who completes the city-approved inspection
certification course. (Training available through RHA.) Owners whose property did not pass the
initial inspection will be subject to annual inspections at a cost of $127 for every unit inspected.
The County of Sacramento has a similar inspection program and recently increased its annual
fee to $15.50 per unit. However, the County program does not require an initial inspection by its
staff. Instead, like the City of Sacramento, it allows owners or someone who completes an
approved course to perform the required annual inspection. County staff will ensure compliance
through random audits.
Both the City and the County of Sacramento require the use of their inspection checklist and a
resident of the rental unit must sign and receive a copy of the completed form. Both
jurisdictions also require owners to provide residents with a copy of the Resident’s Rights Form,
a new document that both the owner and residents must sign at the inception of every tenancy.
(Free copies of these forms may be downloaded from the RHA website at www.RHA.org.)
Elsewhere in the region, the City of Rancho Cordova has an inspection ordinance, but with fewer
requirements, and the City of Elk Grove, City of West Sacramento and a few others in the region
have considered establishing their own programs.
Other local issues facing rental owners include the spread of bed bugs, rate increases for water,
sewer and other utilities, and a rise in contested unlawful detainer cases, thanks in part to
eviction delay tactics encouraged by tenant advocates.
Jim Lofgren is the Executive Director of the Rental Housing Association of Sacramento Valley, a
non-profit trade association representing owners and managers of over 80,000 rental units. For
more information, call (916) 920-1120, visit www.RHA.org or email jim@RHA.org.
www.WrightRealEstate.us
Wright Report
MARKET UPDATE:
The median price in the U.S.
12.2% from June 2012. June 2013 the median sold price in CA hit
$415,770, up 31.4% from
the $469,500 peak in 2006.
$285,920 price in Q2-12 an
Affordability is down 5 points
affordability hit 36% in Q2
points from 51% in Q2-
http://www.inman.com/2013/06/10/economists
In Sacramento County the median price rose to $
44.5% from the median price i
Sacramento County for June 2013 was $274,051
2012, and up 38% from
January
Page 9
The median price in the U.S. crested to $203,000 in June 2013, up
12.2% from June 2012. June 2013 the median sold price in CA hit
% from $316,490 Q2-12 and is only 11.4% from
the $469,500 peak in 2006. That median price is up 45% from the
12 and 69% from the 2009 bottom of $245,000.
5 points to 60% across the nation. In CA
% in Q2-2013, down 8 points from Q1-13 and
-12.
http://www.inman.com/2013/06/10/economists-temper-housing-bubble-worries/
County the median price rose to $245,908 in
% from the median price in June 2012. The average sold price
for June 2013 was $274,051 up 22% from Dec.
% from June last year.
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crested to $203,000 in June 2013, up
12.2% from June 2012. June 2013 the median sold price in CA hit
% from
45% from the
69% from the 2009 bottom of $245,000.
across the nation. In CA
13 and 15
worries/
in June, up
. The average sold price for
up 22% from Dec.
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COUNTY
Average Sold Price %
Change
12-Jun 13-Jun
Sacramento $198,515 $274,051 38.05%
Placer $326,190 $404,911 24.13%
El Dorado $305,742 $390,080 27.58%
Yolo $301,982 $343,567 13.77%
Since the market turned downward in September 2005 it declined 59%
in median price for single family homes (SFR) with the lowest point
being $160,000 in January 2012. Since that point the market rose
54% through June this year.
In Sacramento County 26.1% of sales in June 2013 were distressed
sales (short sales or REO), down from 63% from a year before. In
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Sacramento County short sales make up 18.6% of sold properties.
REOs (foreclosed bank owned sales) made up 7.5% of sales.
The chart describes the variation of sold price by Seller Type in the five
counties surrounding Sacramento for the month of June 2013.
SELLER TYPE
Average Sold Price by County (June 2013)
Placer Sacramento El Dorado Yolo San Joaquin
Total Sold $404,911 $274,051 $390,080 $343,567 $234,471
Conventional $423,601 $296,058 $418,273 $370,988 $256,931
Foreclosure $288,023 $215,487 $269,327 $212,464 $196,605
Short Sale $315,785 $210,509 $319,000 $263,421 $191,373
In Sacramento County the inventory of homes available for sale had
increase substantially through the first 2 quarters of 2013: 989 units
on January 1, 2013 to 1,928 on July 1, 2013.
In June 2013 the months of unsold inventory in Sacramento County is
1.1 months. In June homes sold for an average of 3% above the
original asking price with the biggest shift being Short Sales which sold
for an average of 6% over list price. REO’s sold for 4% over list price.
COUNTY
Inventory for Sale %
Change
January-13 July-13
Sacramento 989 1,928 95%
Placer 472 796 69%
El Dorado 428 605 41%
Yolo 132 183 39%
Inventory continues to remain low, especially distressed inventory
which has declined substantially through the year. National inventory
is down 5.24% in July 2013 compared to July 2012, though it was up
16% over January 2013.
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Sales of homes across the nation are expected to exceed 5 million
units this year: up from 4.51 million in 2012. As sales increase and
prices increase the amount of investor activity is beginning to decline.
In June 19.7% of sales went to investors, down from 23% in February.
2013. Also the number of investors that say they are planning to hold
is up, as compared to investors saying they plan to flip their
properties.
Cash sales in June 2013 were 30% across the U.S. and 30% in
Sacramento County also.
Affordability is also down 9 points across the nation from Q4-12.
California is down 8 points and Sacramento an incredible 15 points!
AFFORDABILITY
%
Quarter 4- 2012 Quarter 2- 2013
United States 69% 60%
California 48% 36%
Sacramento Cnty. 71% 56%
As the median price rises banks find it desirable to hold on to
inventory longer and postpone foreclosure sales more frequently. This
extra time allows for appreciation to increase the sale price and the
amount of money they will receive upon closing. This is a tactic banks
also employed in 2009, limiting inventory to drive prices up, without
success.
Another factor that will definitely play into the housing market in the
foreseeable future is household formation. Home ownership rates
have declined for the 25-34 age group, and that group has also held
off on forming new households over the past several years. This sharp
loss will likely be made up in the coming years and will contribute to
increased demand for housing across the nation.
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Wright Report
positively to U.S. GDP in 2013, and to
economic growth. New home growth is expected to surpass 22% i
2013 and sell close to 500,000 SFR homes.
http://www.inman.com/2013/06/10/economists
Year
# of “missing”
households,
millions
2008 0.9
2009 1.8
2010 2.6
2011 2.6
2012 2.3
2013 2.4
January
Page 13
http://trends.truliablog.com/category/household
formation/
New household formation is typically over 1
million annually, so with current estimates
there are over 2 years of pent up dema
that has been postponed and will likely come
back as the economy improves.
New housing is also expected to contribute
GDP in 2013, and to be a primary driver of jobs and
economic growth. New home growth is expected to surpass 22% i
2013 and sell close to 500,000 SFR homes.
http://www.inman.com/2013/06/10/economists-temper-housing-bubble-worries/
January - June, 2013
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http://trends.truliablog.com/category/household-
New household formation is typically over 1
o with current estimates
pent up demand
that has been postponed and will likely come
expected to contribute
be a primary driver of jobs and
economic growth. New home growth is expected to surpass 22% in
worries/
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THE ECONOMY:
GDP growth for the U.S. economy is expected to be between 1% and 2% for
2013. That is not the great recovery we have been expecting once the
housing market saw it’s turn around. While prices rose 12.2% nationally and
new construction numbers are up more than 20%, with all it’s job growth,
housing was expected to lead the economy out of the downturn. We can see
that wasn’t the case.
Employment numbers still hover under 200,000 per month hardly more than
the 150,000 new folks looking for employment every month – so it’s
essentially stagnant. New job growth, while occurring, is low-paying,
primarily part-time, and therefore in higher turnover sectors of the economy.
www.LundquistCompany.com
There is increasing distrust of huge fiscal debts, surpassed debt ceilings, and
spend more to make more strategies. As the old saying goes “discretion is
the better part of valor,” it appears businesses everywhere are employing it.
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BANKING & LENDING:
The market has changed as lending begins to loosen up across the
U.S. There is an increased demand for sub-prime loans which have
been on the “don’t touch” list for nearly all banks since the downturn.
There are also some loan programs appearing that resemble
flashbacks to 2005, such as 3% down conventional loans.
Bank of America is once again involved in a suit, this time with the
SEC & Justice Department for apparently misrepresenting a
$855,000,000 Residential Mortgage Backed Security (RMBS).
Apparently some of the loans packaged in the fund did not even fit
with BofA’s own current lending guidelines.
Whether BofA is guilty or not of these indiscretions, it is good to see
oversight of RMBS’. This will hopefully prevent the indiscretions which
led to the 2008 “Great Recession.”
Rates spiked up in June, largely due to the Fed’s announcement that
they may decide to pull back on purchases of RMBS bonds, where it is
currently spending 42 Billion each month to keep the bond markets
moving. As economic factors improve, bond purchases would not be
required, and they are saying they hope to wind down their spending
by the end of 2013 or 2014. It seems this announcement scared the
markets because interest rates jumped a half percent: 4.1 on June 1
to 4.37% on July 1. Also, this shows that the economy is heavily
dependent upon FED stimulation. It seems that decreased bond
purchases by the FED is an eventuality that must come, as this
practice is not sustainable long term.
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Wright Report
http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2013/08/15/dont
Historically, rates have averaged 8.2% over the last 40 years (1973
2013) and they have averaged 4.2% since
the possibility of a Fed pullout, but higher interest rates will have
varied affect on the economy. Naturally
more expensive which is bad for businesses looking to build and grow.
Increased rates may he
as opposed to the stratospheric increases currently experienced in
some cities like Sacramento (44.5% annual price increase)
Sustainable growth will help us decrease the chance of a bubble in the
near future. Rising rates will also
seriously consider their purchases.
January
Page 16
http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2013/08/15/dont-be-a-bond-chicken-little/
Historically, rates have averaged 8.2% over the last 40 years (1973
2013) and they have averaged 4.2% since June 2011. Rates rose on
the possibility of a Fed pullout, but higher interest rates will have
varied affect on the economy. Naturally, borrowing money will be
more expensive which is bad for businesses looking to build and grow.
Increased rates may help the housing market grow more sustainably,
as opposed to the stratospheric increases currently experienced in
Sacramento (44.5% annual price increase).
Sustainable growth will help us decrease the chance of a bubble in the
Rising rates will also cause homeowners to more
ly consider their purchases.
January - June, 2013
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Historically, rates have averaged 8.2% over the last 40 years (1973-
Rates rose on
the possibility of a Fed pullout, but higher interest rates will have
will be
more expensive which is bad for businesses looking to build and grow.
grow more sustainably,
as opposed to the stratospheric increases currently experienced in
Sustainable growth will help us decrease the chance of a bubble in the
cause homeowners to more
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http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MORTG
Higher rates will also lessen the number of refinances banks will be
doing, which will lower their income from lending, which will likely
cause them to loosen lending restrictions and overlay requirements
currently on loans, which will make it easier for borrowers to purchase.
This will open the market to more buyers.
BANK Income Q2-2013 vs. 2012
Q2-13 Q2-12
Wells Fargo 5.5 B 4.6 B
Chase 6.5 B 5 B
Bank of America 4 B 2.5 B
Citibank 4.2 B 2.9 B
There is still not a lot of traction to create a secondary market that will
replace Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. While there have been a couple of
bills proposed on Capitol Hill nothing has stuck yet, and it does not
seem to be an easy resolution. Not only is it structurally unfeasible to
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do away with the only entities that make lending possible, but it is
politically difficult to do away with them now that they are bringing in
billions annually to pay what they borrowed and leave a positive
balance sheet.
Needless to say, nothing is likely to be done for several years, and
there is no clear vision of how to phase the giants “out” and bring the
rest of the market “in” to take their place.
DISTRESSED PROPERTIES:
The National Mortgage Delinquency Rate has declined across the U.S.
to 6.96% in Q2-13. That is down from 7.25% in Q1-13 and 7.58% in
Q2-12. The percentage of mortgages that are 90 days delinquent or
more is 2.65% in Q2-13, down from 2.88% in Q1 and 3.19% in Q2-
12.
Properties that are 30 days or more delinquent with those in the
foreclosure process amount to 4.78 million properties. Approximately
1.46 million in pre-foreclosure and 3.32 million that are 30 days or
more late.
Of the properties that are already foreclosed on, states with judicial
foreclosure processes end up having about 3 times as many properties
on their books as states with non-judicial foreclosure processes
because it requires them to take far more time to perform the
foreclosure, the holding period, and the sale due to the nature of the
process.
Since September 2008 some 4.5 million homes have been foreclosed
on in the U.S. In June 2013 there were some 55,000 that were lost to
foreclosure by banks; down 20% from June 2012.
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Foreclosure starts are down to 329,000 in Q2-13 30% from Q1 and
38% from Q2-12. Foreclosure sales (158,000 for the quarter) are
down 15% from Q2-12.
Loan modifications are up significantly for two reasons. First, lenders
have gained something of a distaste for foreclose and second, sale
prices have increased so delinquent homeowners become more
qualified. They are up to 204,000 in Q2-13 about 13% from Q2-12.
6.52 million modifications have been performed since 2007.
While delinquency has decreased it is not yet at normal levels and
estimates are that near 800,000 foreclosures will be started in 2013,
down from 1.1 million in 2012.
Inventory of REO properties for sale in Sacramento County continues
to drop in the first half of 2013. January 1, 2013 saw 155 REO
properties available for sale. By the end of Q2-2-12 it dropped 14% to
133 units(July 1.) The average marketing time in December 2012 for
REOs was 29 days, in June 2013 that went up to 39 days.
Filings: California NOD (Notice of Default) filings fell 25% and NOT
(Notice of Trustee Sale) filings fell 52% from December 2012 to June
2013. The number of properties that went back to the bank fell 67%
during the same period to 1,173 from 3,578 in December 2012.
In Sacramento the number of filings of NOD fell 42% and NOT filings
fell 52% from December 2012 to June 2013. The number of
properties that went back to the bank fell 75% from December 2012
with 52 properties going to the bank in June 2013. The number of
days to foreclosure in Sacramento County increased 23% to 309 days
and the number of days it took for the banks to sell increased to 312
days on average.
Inventory: Pre-foreclosure inventory (NOD - Notice of Default) in
California is down 19% to 47,762 (June 2013) from 59,076 (Dec.
2012). NOT (Notice of Trustee Sale) inventory is down 58% for the
same period to 25,117 units, and the number of bank owned inventory
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(REOs) is down 25% to 44,471 in June from 59,529 units in December
2012.
Sacramento County inventory went down 30% from 3,140 in Dec.
2012 to 2,203 in June 2013. NOT inventory went down 61% for the
same period to 1,060 units, and the number of bank owned inventory
(REOs) is down 28% to 1,954 units from 2,712 units in December
2012.
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COUNTY STATISTICS:
Sacramento County
The year started, January 1, 2013, with 989 listings and ended the
second Quarter (July 1, 2013) with 1928 listing available for sale.
That is a 95% increase in the first 2 quarters of this year.
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REO (Real Estate Owned- foreclosed properties) inventory is down
14% since January 1 and Active Short Sales are down 20% over the
same period. Conventional sales inventory is up 141% from 697 in
January to 1,685 in July 2013.
Pending: Pending sales are up 27% from Jan. 1, 2013 to July 1,
2013: from 1,680 to 2,134 homes. Pending foreclosure sales are
down 41% and pending short sales are down 40% for the same
period. Pending conventional sales are up 71% to 1,743 pending
homes.
AVERAGE SOLD
PRICE by SELLER
TYPE
# Sold
June
2013
# Sold
June
2012
Yr/Yr %
Change
Average
Sold Price
June 13
Average
Sold Price
June 12
Yr/Yr %
Change
Total Sold 1464 1705 -14.1% $274,051 $198,515 38.1%
REO 110 390 -71.8% $215,487 $148,411 45.2%
Conventional 1081 795 36.0% $296,058 $235,878 25.5%
Short Sale 273 520 -47.5% $210,509 $178,970 17.6%
Sold: Sales numbers for SFR (Single Family Residence) for June 2013
were 1,464 units sold in Sacramento County. Foreclosures accounted
for 6.9% of properties on the market in June, and 7.5% of sales.
Short sales accounted for 5.7% of all Active inventory, and 18.6% of
sales. Conventional sales accounted for the rest (87.4%) of Active
inventory and 73.8% of sales. That is up from 49% of sales in
January of 2013.
Placer County
The year started, January 1, 2013, with 472 listings and ended the
second Quarter (July 1, 2013) with 796 listing available for sale. That
is a 69% increase. REO (foreclosure) inventory is down 78% since
January 1, 2013 and Active Short Sales are down 46% over the same
period. Conventional sales inventory is up 86% over the same period.
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Pending: Pending sales are up 12% from Jan. 1, 2013 to July 1,
2013: from 454 to 718 homes. Pending foreclosure sales are down
39% and pending short sales are down 23% for the same period.
Pending conventional sales are up 103% to 613 pending homes.
AVERAGE SOLD
PRICE by SELLER
TYPE
# Sold
June
2013
# Sold
June
2012
Yr/Yr %
Change
Average
Sold Price
June 13
Average
Sold Price
June 12
Yr/Yr %
Change
Total Sold 555 496 11.9% $404,911 $326,190 24.1%
REO 28 78 -64.1% $288,023 $260,813 10.4%
Conventional 466 288 61.8% $423,601 $362,901 16.7%
Short Sale 61 130 -53.1% $315,785 $284,085 11.2%
Sold: Sales numbers for SFR (Single Family Residence) for June 2013
were 555 units sold. Foreclosures accounted for 3% of properties on
the market the end of Q2-13, and 5% of sales in June 2013. Short
sales accounted for 3.5% of all Active inventory, and 11% of sales.
Conventional sales accounted for the rest (93.3%) of Active inventory
and 84% of sales in June. That is up from 53% of sales in December
of 2012.
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El Dorado County
The year started, January 1, 2013, with 428 listings and ended the
second Quarter (July 1, 2013) with 605 listing available for sale. That
is a 41% increase. REO (foreclosure) inventory is down 32% since
January 1, 2012 and Active Short Sales are up 12.5% over the same
period. Conventional sales inventory is up 54% over the same period.
Pending: Pending sales are up 65% from Jan. 1, 2013 to July 1,
2013: from 204 to 336 homes. Pending foreclosure sales are down
30% and pending short sales are down 10% for the same period.
Pending conventional sales are up 109% to 282 pending homes.
AVERAGE SOLD
PRICE by SELLER
TYPE
# Sold
June
2013
# Sold
June
2012
Yr/Yr %
Change
Average
Sold Price
June 13
Average
Sold Price
June 12
Yr/Yr %
Change
Total Sold 243 249 -2.4% $390,080 $305,742 27.6%
REO 28 63 -55.6% $269,327 $213,905 25.9%
Conventional 188 138 36.2% $418,273 $351,262 19.1%
Short Sale 27 47 -42.6% $319,000 $294,217 8.4%
Sold: Sales numbers for SFR (Single Family Residence) for June 2013
were 243 units sold. Foreclosures accounted for 5% of properties on
the market the end of Q2-13, and 11.5% of sales in June 2013. Short
sales accounted for 6% of all Active inventory, and 11.1% of sales.
Conventional sales accounted for the rest (89%) of Active inventory
and 77.4% of sales. That is up from 61.3% of sales in December of
2012.
Yolo County
The year started, January 1, 2013, with 132 listings and ended the
second Quarter (July 1, 2013) with 183 listing available for sale. That
is a 39% increase. REO (foreclosure) inventory is up 12% since
January 1, 2013 and Active Short Sales are down 55% over the same
period. Conventional sales inventory is up 60% over the same period.
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 25 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
Pending: Pending sales are up 64% from Jan. 1, 2013 to July 1,
2013: from 148 to 242 homes. Pending foreclosure sales are down
21% and pending short sales are down 49% for the same period.
Pending conventional sales are up 126% to 206 pending homes.
AVERAGE SOLD
PRICE by SELLER
TYPE
# Sold
June
2013
# Sold
June
2012
Yr/Yr %
Change
Average
Sold Price
June 13
Average
Sold Price
June 12
Yr/Yr %
Change
Total Sold 166 181 -8.3% $343,567 $301,982 13.8%
REO 7 36 -80.6% $212,464 $192,489 10.4%
Conventional 127 99 28.3% $370,988 $385,363 -3.7%
Short Sale 32 46 -30.4% $263,421 $208,219 26.5%
Sold: Sales numbers for SFR (Single Family Residence) for June 2013
were 166 units sold. Foreclosures accounted for 7.7% of properties on
the market the end of Q2-13, and 4.2% of sales in June 2013. Short
sales accounted for 4.9% of all Active inventory, and 19.3% of sales.
Conventional sales accounted for the rest (87.4%) of Active inventory
and 76.5% of sales. That is up from 56% of sales in December of
2012.
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 26 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
San Joaquin County
The year started, January 1, 2013, with 636 listings and ended the
second Quarter (July 1, 2013) with 708 listing available for sale. That
is a 11% increase. REO (foreclosure) inventory is down 46% from
January 1 to July 1, 2013 and Active Short Sales are down 50.5%.
Conventional sales inventory is up 43%.
Pending: Pending sales are up 18% from Jan. 1, 2013 to July 1,
2013: from 844 to 754 homes. Pending foreclosure sales are down
50%. Pending short sales are down 30.5%, and pending conventional
sales are up 71.4%.
AVERAGE SOLD
PRICE by SELLER
TYPE
# Sold
June
2013
# Sold
Dec.
2012
Yr/Yr %
Change
Average
Sold Price
June 13
Average
Sold Price
June 12
Yr/Yr %
Change
Total Sold 583 725 -19.6% $234,471 $204,235 14.8%
REO 66 135 -51.1% $196,605 $161,250 21.9%
Conventional 378 339 11.5% $256,931 $224,778 14.3%
Short Sale 139 251 -44.6% $191,373 $199,610 -4.1%
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 27 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
Sold: Sales numbers for SFR (Single Family Residence) for June 2013
were 583 units sold. Foreclosures accounted for 8.3% of properties on
the market the end of Q2-13, and 11.3% of sales in June 2013. Short
sales accounted for 7.8% of all Active inventory, and 23.8% of sales.
Conventional sales accounted for the rest (83.9%) of Active inventory
and 64.8% of sales. That is up from 46.8% of sales in December of
2011.
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 28 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
HISTORICAL PRICE GRAPHS:
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 29 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
PLACER COUNTY:
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 30 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 31 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
SACRAMENTO COUNTY:
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 32 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 33 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 34 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 35 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 36 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 37 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 38 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 39 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
RESOURCES:
ABREVIATIONS
CAR = California Association of Realtors
HAFA = Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternative
HAMP = Home Affordable Mortgage Program
MLS = Multiple Listing Service
NAR = National Association of Realtors
NOD = Notice of Default
NOT = Notice of Trustee Sale
REO = Real Estate Owned by a bank, or foreclosure
SAR = Sacramento Association of Realtors
WRE = Wright Real Estate
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
MetrolistMLS.com- to search for properties. www.metrolistmls.com
NorthState Building Industry Association (BIA) www.northstatebia.org
Rental Housing Association (RHA) www.rha.org
Sacramento Association of Realtors (SAR) www.sacrealtor.org
January - June, 2013
www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 40 (916) 726-8308
Wright Report
Serving Sacramento since 2000.
Check out our BLOG and additional STATISTICS on the web at:
www.WrightRealEstate.US
For FREE Information and Consulting Services contact us:
Office: 916.726.8308 Info@WrightRealEstate.US

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Wright report1 2013

  • 1. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 1 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report Perspectives and Overview of Northern California’s Residential Real Estate Market: Including Statistics and Trends for the United States, State of California, and Northern California Counties. Research, Charts, and Graphs for areas within Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado & San Joaquin Counties. January to June, 2013 TTHHEE WWRRIIGGHHTT RREEPPOORRTT
  • 2. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 2 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report The Wright Report Prepared by: Prepared By: Joel Wright Document Version: Final Last Updated On: September, 2013
  • 3. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 3 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA.
  • 4. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 4 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS....................................................................................................................... 4 THE EXPERTS WEIGH IN:.................................................................................................................. 6 Sacramento Appraiser: Ryan Lundquist ........................................................................ 6 Rental Housing Association: Jim Lofgren....................................................................... 8 MARKET UPDATE:............................................................................................................................ 9 THE ECONOMY: ............................................................................................................................. 14 BANKING & LENDING: ................................................................................................................... 15 DISTRESSED PROPERTIES:.............................................................................................................. 18 COUNTY STATISTICS: ..................................................................................................................... 21 Sacramento County..................................................................................................... 21 Placer County .............................................................................................................. 22 El Dorado County......................................................................................................... 24 Yolo County ................................................................................................................. 24 San Joaquin County ..................................................................................................... 26 HISTORICAL PRICE GRAPHS: .......................................................................................................... 28 PLACER COUNTY:........................................................................................................................... 29 SACRAMENTO COUNTY:................................................................................................................ 31 RESOURCES:................................................................................................................................... 39
  • 5. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 5 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: As the residential real estate market makes a comeback in Sacramento we saw a huge price increase from June 2012 to June 2013 (+44.5%). Where we will land is not yet known, but it appears that a slowdown seems inevitable for several reasons. • Interest rates rose dramatically in June 2013 on the announcement by the FED that they would begin to taper off QE- 3. Higher interest rates are inevitable. • Inventory has increased dramatically - 155% from January to September; but with the increase in sellers the buyer demand remains the same. • Distressed property inventory has declined dramatically. Banks’ inventory of REOs has dropped as they are more hesitant to foreclose. Short sales are also becoming rare as delinquent owners can increasingly get a loan modification or sell their home for a profit. • Institutional investors are reducing the number of purchases as prices increase and margins decline. Unfortunately, the housing recovery has not been the spring board to national recovery that was expected. While, on one hand, the stock market has reached all-time highs, and banking and financial institutions bring in significant profits, conversely, the unemployment rate is still high, job growth is slow, and median income remains stagnant. Ultimately, it appears the greater Sacramento market will continue to rise, and there is plenty of room for price growth. So despite continued national economic troubles, housing will keep driving forward.
  • 6. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 6 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report THE EXPERTS WEIGH IN: Sacramento Appraiser: Ryan Lundquist The Sacramento Market is Beginning to Shift Again The market in Sacramento experienced a dramatic shift just over one year ago as property values bottomed out, inventory dried up and investors purchased homes at an exponential pace. Now the market has begun to shift again and is beginning to “normalize”. We are seeing less cash sales, properties are taking slightly longer to sell and there has been an uptick in housing supply. The market overall is still increasing in property value, but the gap between sales and listings is definitely getting smaller, which has made it crucial to study the market and list properties at a reasonable price level. Having less cash purchases has effectively created slightly more space for owner- occupant buyers as well as FHA offers to be accepted. For instance, FHA saw a 2% increase in July and August 2013 in Sacramento County. Part of this increase is due to an uptick in housing supply and less cash in the market, but some of it may also be due to FHA announcing in early July that it will now accept buyers who have been through foreclosure from as little as one year ago. This new rule will help create a larger pool of buyers ready for the market just as inventory has begun to increase again.
  • 7. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 7 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report In light of the median price skyrocketing over the course of the year, the market under $200,000 has become far more competitive for first-time buyers and investors. The vast bulk of cash purchases are still under $200,000 in Sacramento County, though keep in mind about 25% of all sales between $200,000 to $300,000 were cash in Q2. That’s a strong market segment. Ultimately the market is still heavily in favor of sellers since there is only a one to two- month supply of inventory available, but the market has definitely begun to shift in Sacramento. Ryan Lundquist is a Certified Real Estate Appraiser in the Greater Sacramento Area. He also specializes in reducing property taxes. Check out his great Blog at www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com or contact directly at (916) 595-3735.
  • 8. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 8 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report Rental Housing Association: Jim Lofgren Rental housing inspection programs enacted by cities and counties continue to be the major issue facing rental owner and managers in the Greater Sacramento region. Under the typical inspection programs, owners must register their properties with the local jurisdiction, pay an annual fee, allow code enforcement officials to inspect properties for compliance with health and safety codes, and provide residents with certain government approved forms. The Sacramento City Council recently modified its inspection ordinance. At the urging of RHA, the City Council lowered the annual fee by $12, from $28 per unit to $16. The Council also granted rental owners the option of self-certification if their property passed the initial inspection. Under self-certification, annual inspections are required, but can be performed by either the owner or an employee or third party who completes the city-approved inspection certification course. (Training available through RHA.) Owners whose property did not pass the initial inspection will be subject to annual inspections at a cost of $127 for every unit inspected. The County of Sacramento has a similar inspection program and recently increased its annual fee to $15.50 per unit. However, the County program does not require an initial inspection by its staff. Instead, like the City of Sacramento, it allows owners or someone who completes an approved course to perform the required annual inspection. County staff will ensure compliance through random audits. Both the City and the County of Sacramento require the use of their inspection checklist and a resident of the rental unit must sign and receive a copy of the completed form. Both jurisdictions also require owners to provide residents with a copy of the Resident’s Rights Form, a new document that both the owner and residents must sign at the inception of every tenancy. (Free copies of these forms may be downloaded from the RHA website at www.RHA.org.) Elsewhere in the region, the City of Rancho Cordova has an inspection ordinance, but with fewer requirements, and the City of Elk Grove, City of West Sacramento and a few others in the region have considered establishing their own programs. Other local issues facing rental owners include the spread of bed bugs, rate increases for water, sewer and other utilities, and a rise in contested unlawful detainer cases, thanks in part to eviction delay tactics encouraged by tenant advocates. Jim Lofgren is the Executive Director of the Rental Housing Association of Sacramento Valley, a non-profit trade association representing owners and managers of over 80,000 rental units. For more information, call (916) 920-1120, visit www.RHA.org or email jim@RHA.org.
  • 9. www.WrightRealEstate.us Wright Report MARKET UPDATE: The median price in the U.S. 12.2% from June 2012. June 2013 the median sold price in CA hit $415,770, up 31.4% from the $469,500 peak in 2006. $285,920 price in Q2-12 an Affordability is down 5 points affordability hit 36% in Q2 points from 51% in Q2- http://www.inman.com/2013/06/10/economists In Sacramento County the median price rose to $ 44.5% from the median price i Sacramento County for June 2013 was $274,051 2012, and up 38% from January Page 9 The median price in the U.S. crested to $203,000 in June 2013, up 12.2% from June 2012. June 2013 the median sold price in CA hit % from $316,490 Q2-12 and is only 11.4% from the $469,500 peak in 2006. That median price is up 45% from the 12 and 69% from the 2009 bottom of $245,000. 5 points to 60% across the nation. In CA % in Q2-2013, down 8 points from Q1-13 and -12. http://www.inman.com/2013/06/10/economists-temper-housing-bubble-worries/ County the median price rose to $245,908 in % from the median price in June 2012. The average sold price for June 2013 was $274,051 up 22% from Dec. % from June last year. January - June, 2013 (916) 726-8308 crested to $203,000 in June 2013, up 12.2% from June 2012. June 2013 the median sold price in CA hit % from 45% from the 69% from the 2009 bottom of $245,000. across the nation. In CA 13 and 15 worries/ in June, up . The average sold price for up 22% from Dec.
  • 10. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 10 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report COUNTY Average Sold Price % Change 12-Jun 13-Jun Sacramento $198,515 $274,051 38.05% Placer $326,190 $404,911 24.13% El Dorado $305,742 $390,080 27.58% Yolo $301,982 $343,567 13.77% Since the market turned downward in September 2005 it declined 59% in median price for single family homes (SFR) with the lowest point being $160,000 in January 2012. Since that point the market rose 54% through June this year. In Sacramento County 26.1% of sales in June 2013 were distressed sales (short sales or REO), down from 63% from a year before. In
  • 11. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 11 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report Sacramento County short sales make up 18.6% of sold properties. REOs (foreclosed bank owned sales) made up 7.5% of sales. The chart describes the variation of sold price by Seller Type in the five counties surrounding Sacramento for the month of June 2013. SELLER TYPE Average Sold Price by County (June 2013) Placer Sacramento El Dorado Yolo San Joaquin Total Sold $404,911 $274,051 $390,080 $343,567 $234,471 Conventional $423,601 $296,058 $418,273 $370,988 $256,931 Foreclosure $288,023 $215,487 $269,327 $212,464 $196,605 Short Sale $315,785 $210,509 $319,000 $263,421 $191,373 In Sacramento County the inventory of homes available for sale had increase substantially through the first 2 quarters of 2013: 989 units on January 1, 2013 to 1,928 on July 1, 2013. In June 2013 the months of unsold inventory in Sacramento County is 1.1 months. In June homes sold for an average of 3% above the original asking price with the biggest shift being Short Sales which sold for an average of 6% over list price. REO’s sold for 4% over list price. COUNTY Inventory for Sale % Change January-13 July-13 Sacramento 989 1,928 95% Placer 472 796 69% El Dorado 428 605 41% Yolo 132 183 39% Inventory continues to remain low, especially distressed inventory which has declined substantially through the year. National inventory is down 5.24% in July 2013 compared to July 2012, though it was up 16% over January 2013.
  • 12. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 12 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report Sales of homes across the nation are expected to exceed 5 million units this year: up from 4.51 million in 2012. As sales increase and prices increase the amount of investor activity is beginning to decline. In June 19.7% of sales went to investors, down from 23% in February. 2013. Also the number of investors that say they are planning to hold is up, as compared to investors saying they plan to flip their properties. Cash sales in June 2013 were 30% across the U.S. and 30% in Sacramento County also. Affordability is also down 9 points across the nation from Q4-12. California is down 8 points and Sacramento an incredible 15 points! AFFORDABILITY % Quarter 4- 2012 Quarter 2- 2013 United States 69% 60% California 48% 36% Sacramento Cnty. 71% 56% As the median price rises banks find it desirable to hold on to inventory longer and postpone foreclosure sales more frequently. This extra time allows for appreciation to increase the sale price and the amount of money they will receive upon closing. This is a tactic banks also employed in 2009, limiting inventory to drive prices up, without success. Another factor that will definitely play into the housing market in the foreseeable future is household formation. Home ownership rates have declined for the 25-34 age group, and that group has also held off on forming new households over the past several years. This sharp loss will likely be made up in the coming years and will contribute to increased demand for housing across the nation.
  • 13. www.WrightRealEstate.us Wright Report positively to U.S. GDP in 2013, and to economic growth. New home growth is expected to surpass 22% i 2013 and sell close to 500,000 SFR homes. http://www.inman.com/2013/06/10/economists Year # of “missing” households, millions 2008 0.9 2009 1.8 2010 2.6 2011 2.6 2012 2.3 2013 2.4 January Page 13 http://trends.truliablog.com/category/household formation/ New household formation is typically over 1 million annually, so with current estimates there are over 2 years of pent up dema that has been postponed and will likely come back as the economy improves. New housing is also expected to contribute GDP in 2013, and to be a primary driver of jobs and economic growth. New home growth is expected to surpass 22% i 2013 and sell close to 500,000 SFR homes. http://www.inman.com/2013/06/10/economists-temper-housing-bubble-worries/ January - June, 2013 (916) 726-8308 http://trends.truliablog.com/category/household- New household formation is typically over 1 o with current estimates pent up demand that has been postponed and will likely come expected to contribute be a primary driver of jobs and economic growth. New home growth is expected to surpass 22% in worries/
  • 14. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 14 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report THE ECONOMY: GDP growth for the U.S. economy is expected to be between 1% and 2% for 2013. That is not the great recovery we have been expecting once the housing market saw it’s turn around. While prices rose 12.2% nationally and new construction numbers are up more than 20%, with all it’s job growth, housing was expected to lead the economy out of the downturn. We can see that wasn’t the case. Employment numbers still hover under 200,000 per month hardly more than the 150,000 new folks looking for employment every month – so it’s essentially stagnant. New job growth, while occurring, is low-paying, primarily part-time, and therefore in higher turnover sectors of the economy. www.LundquistCompany.com There is increasing distrust of huge fiscal debts, surpassed debt ceilings, and spend more to make more strategies. As the old saying goes “discretion is the better part of valor,” it appears businesses everywhere are employing it.
  • 15. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 15 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report BANKING & LENDING: The market has changed as lending begins to loosen up across the U.S. There is an increased demand for sub-prime loans which have been on the “don’t touch” list for nearly all banks since the downturn. There are also some loan programs appearing that resemble flashbacks to 2005, such as 3% down conventional loans. Bank of America is once again involved in a suit, this time with the SEC & Justice Department for apparently misrepresenting a $855,000,000 Residential Mortgage Backed Security (RMBS). Apparently some of the loans packaged in the fund did not even fit with BofA’s own current lending guidelines. Whether BofA is guilty or not of these indiscretions, it is good to see oversight of RMBS’. This will hopefully prevent the indiscretions which led to the 2008 “Great Recession.” Rates spiked up in June, largely due to the Fed’s announcement that they may decide to pull back on purchases of RMBS bonds, where it is currently spending 42 Billion each month to keep the bond markets moving. As economic factors improve, bond purchases would not be required, and they are saying they hope to wind down their spending by the end of 2013 or 2014. It seems this announcement scared the markets because interest rates jumped a half percent: 4.1 on June 1 to 4.37% on July 1. Also, this shows that the economy is heavily dependent upon FED stimulation. It seems that decreased bond purchases by the FED is an eventuality that must come, as this practice is not sustainable long term.
  • 16. www.WrightRealEstate.us Wright Report http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2013/08/15/dont Historically, rates have averaged 8.2% over the last 40 years (1973 2013) and they have averaged 4.2% since the possibility of a Fed pullout, but higher interest rates will have varied affect on the economy. Naturally more expensive which is bad for businesses looking to build and grow. Increased rates may he as opposed to the stratospheric increases currently experienced in some cities like Sacramento (44.5% annual price increase) Sustainable growth will help us decrease the chance of a bubble in the near future. Rising rates will also seriously consider their purchases. January Page 16 http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2013/08/15/dont-be-a-bond-chicken-little/ Historically, rates have averaged 8.2% over the last 40 years (1973 2013) and they have averaged 4.2% since June 2011. Rates rose on the possibility of a Fed pullout, but higher interest rates will have varied affect on the economy. Naturally, borrowing money will be more expensive which is bad for businesses looking to build and grow. Increased rates may help the housing market grow more sustainably, as opposed to the stratospheric increases currently experienced in Sacramento (44.5% annual price increase). Sustainable growth will help us decrease the chance of a bubble in the Rising rates will also cause homeowners to more ly consider their purchases. January - June, 2013 (916) 726-8308 Historically, rates have averaged 8.2% over the last 40 years (1973- Rates rose on the possibility of a Fed pullout, but higher interest rates will have will be more expensive which is bad for businesses looking to build and grow. grow more sustainably, as opposed to the stratospheric increases currently experienced in Sustainable growth will help us decrease the chance of a bubble in the cause homeowners to more
  • 17. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 17 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MORTG Higher rates will also lessen the number of refinances banks will be doing, which will lower their income from lending, which will likely cause them to loosen lending restrictions and overlay requirements currently on loans, which will make it easier for borrowers to purchase. This will open the market to more buyers. BANK Income Q2-2013 vs. 2012 Q2-13 Q2-12 Wells Fargo 5.5 B 4.6 B Chase 6.5 B 5 B Bank of America 4 B 2.5 B Citibank 4.2 B 2.9 B There is still not a lot of traction to create a secondary market that will replace Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. While there have been a couple of bills proposed on Capitol Hill nothing has stuck yet, and it does not seem to be an easy resolution. Not only is it structurally unfeasible to
  • 18. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 18 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report do away with the only entities that make lending possible, but it is politically difficult to do away with them now that they are bringing in billions annually to pay what they borrowed and leave a positive balance sheet. Needless to say, nothing is likely to be done for several years, and there is no clear vision of how to phase the giants “out” and bring the rest of the market “in” to take their place. DISTRESSED PROPERTIES: The National Mortgage Delinquency Rate has declined across the U.S. to 6.96% in Q2-13. That is down from 7.25% in Q1-13 and 7.58% in Q2-12. The percentage of mortgages that are 90 days delinquent or more is 2.65% in Q2-13, down from 2.88% in Q1 and 3.19% in Q2- 12. Properties that are 30 days or more delinquent with those in the foreclosure process amount to 4.78 million properties. Approximately 1.46 million in pre-foreclosure and 3.32 million that are 30 days or more late. Of the properties that are already foreclosed on, states with judicial foreclosure processes end up having about 3 times as many properties on their books as states with non-judicial foreclosure processes because it requires them to take far more time to perform the foreclosure, the holding period, and the sale due to the nature of the process. Since September 2008 some 4.5 million homes have been foreclosed on in the U.S. In June 2013 there were some 55,000 that were lost to foreclosure by banks; down 20% from June 2012.
  • 19. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 19 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report Foreclosure starts are down to 329,000 in Q2-13 30% from Q1 and 38% from Q2-12. Foreclosure sales (158,000 for the quarter) are down 15% from Q2-12. Loan modifications are up significantly for two reasons. First, lenders have gained something of a distaste for foreclose and second, sale prices have increased so delinquent homeowners become more qualified. They are up to 204,000 in Q2-13 about 13% from Q2-12. 6.52 million modifications have been performed since 2007. While delinquency has decreased it is not yet at normal levels and estimates are that near 800,000 foreclosures will be started in 2013, down from 1.1 million in 2012. Inventory of REO properties for sale in Sacramento County continues to drop in the first half of 2013. January 1, 2013 saw 155 REO properties available for sale. By the end of Q2-2-12 it dropped 14% to 133 units(July 1.) The average marketing time in December 2012 for REOs was 29 days, in June 2013 that went up to 39 days. Filings: California NOD (Notice of Default) filings fell 25% and NOT (Notice of Trustee Sale) filings fell 52% from December 2012 to June 2013. The number of properties that went back to the bank fell 67% during the same period to 1,173 from 3,578 in December 2012. In Sacramento the number of filings of NOD fell 42% and NOT filings fell 52% from December 2012 to June 2013. The number of properties that went back to the bank fell 75% from December 2012 with 52 properties going to the bank in June 2013. The number of days to foreclosure in Sacramento County increased 23% to 309 days and the number of days it took for the banks to sell increased to 312 days on average. Inventory: Pre-foreclosure inventory (NOD - Notice of Default) in California is down 19% to 47,762 (June 2013) from 59,076 (Dec. 2012). NOT (Notice of Trustee Sale) inventory is down 58% for the same period to 25,117 units, and the number of bank owned inventory
  • 20. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 20 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report (REOs) is down 25% to 44,471 in June from 59,529 units in December 2012. Sacramento County inventory went down 30% from 3,140 in Dec. 2012 to 2,203 in June 2013. NOT inventory went down 61% for the same period to 1,060 units, and the number of bank owned inventory (REOs) is down 28% to 1,954 units from 2,712 units in December 2012.
  • 21. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 21 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report COUNTY STATISTICS: Sacramento County The year started, January 1, 2013, with 989 listings and ended the second Quarter (July 1, 2013) with 1928 listing available for sale. That is a 95% increase in the first 2 quarters of this year.
  • 22. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 22 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report REO (Real Estate Owned- foreclosed properties) inventory is down 14% since January 1 and Active Short Sales are down 20% over the same period. Conventional sales inventory is up 141% from 697 in January to 1,685 in July 2013. Pending: Pending sales are up 27% from Jan. 1, 2013 to July 1, 2013: from 1,680 to 2,134 homes. Pending foreclosure sales are down 41% and pending short sales are down 40% for the same period. Pending conventional sales are up 71% to 1,743 pending homes. AVERAGE SOLD PRICE by SELLER TYPE # Sold June 2013 # Sold June 2012 Yr/Yr % Change Average Sold Price June 13 Average Sold Price June 12 Yr/Yr % Change Total Sold 1464 1705 -14.1% $274,051 $198,515 38.1% REO 110 390 -71.8% $215,487 $148,411 45.2% Conventional 1081 795 36.0% $296,058 $235,878 25.5% Short Sale 273 520 -47.5% $210,509 $178,970 17.6% Sold: Sales numbers for SFR (Single Family Residence) for June 2013 were 1,464 units sold in Sacramento County. Foreclosures accounted for 6.9% of properties on the market in June, and 7.5% of sales. Short sales accounted for 5.7% of all Active inventory, and 18.6% of sales. Conventional sales accounted for the rest (87.4%) of Active inventory and 73.8% of sales. That is up from 49% of sales in January of 2013. Placer County The year started, January 1, 2013, with 472 listings and ended the second Quarter (July 1, 2013) with 796 listing available for sale. That is a 69% increase. REO (foreclosure) inventory is down 78% since January 1, 2013 and Active Short Sales are down 46% over the same period. Conventional sales inventory is up 86% over the same period.
  • 23. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 23 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report Pending: Pending sales are up 12% from Jan. 1, 2013 to July 1, 2013: from 454 to 718 homes. Pending foreclosure sales are down 39% and pending short sales are down 23% for the same period. Pending conventional sales are up 103% to 613 pending homes. AVERAGE SOLD PRICE by SELLER TYPE # Sold June 2013 # Sold June 2012 Yr/Yr % Change Average Sold Price June 13 Average Sold Price June 12 Yr/Yr % Change Total Sold 555 496 11.9% $404,911 $326,190 24.1% REO 28 78 -64.1% $288,023 $260,813 10.4% Conventional 466 288 61.8% $423,601 $362,901 16.7% Short Sale 61 130 -53.1% $315,785 $284,085 11.2% Sold: Sales numbers for SFR (Single Family Residence) for June 2013 were 555 units sold. Foreclosures accounted for 3% of properties on the market the end of Q2-13, and 5% of sales in June 2013. Short sales accounted for 3.5% of all Active inventory, and 11% of sales. Conventional sales accounted for the rest (93.3%) of Active inventory and 84% of sales in June. That is up from 53% of sales in December of 2012.
  • 24. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 24 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report El Dorado County The year started, January 1, 2013, with 428 listings and ended the second Quarter (July 1, 2013) with 605 listing available for sale. That is a 41% increase. REO (foreclosure) inventory is down 32% since January 1, 2012 and Active Short Sales are up 12.5% over the same period. Conventional sales inventory is up 54% over the same period. Pending: Pending sales are up 65% from Jan. 1, 2013 to July 1, 2013: from 204 to 336 homes. Pending foreclosure sales are down 30% and pending short sales are down 10% for the same period. Pending conventional sales are up 109% to 282 pending homes. AVERAGE SOLD PRICE by SELLER TYPE # Sold June 2013 # Sold June 2012 Yr/Yr % Change Average Sold Price June 13 Average Sold Price June 12 Yr/Yr % Change Total Sold 243 249 -2.4% $390,080 $305,742 27.6% REO 28 63 -55.6% $269,327 $213,905 25.9% Conventional 188 138 36.2% $418,273 $351,262 19.1% Short Sale 27 47 -42.6% $319,000 $294,217 8.4% Sold: Sales numbers for SFR (Single Family Residence) for June 2013 were 243 units sold. Foreclosures accounted for 5% of properties on the market the end of Q2-13, and 11.5% of sales in June 2013. Short sales accounted for 6% of all Active inventory, and 11.1% of sales. Conventional sales accounted for the rest (89%) of Active inventory and 77.4% of sales. That is up from 61.3% of sales in December of 2012. Yolo County The year started, January 1, 2013, with 132 listings and ended the second Quarter (July 1, 2013) with 183 listing available for sale. That is a 39% increase. REO (foreclosure) inventory is up 12% since January 1, 2013 and Active Short Sales are down 55% over the same period. Conventional sales inventory is up 60% over the same period.
  • 25. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 25 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report Pending: Pending sales are up 64% from Jan. 1, 2013 to July 1, 2013: from 148 to 242 homes. Pending foreclosure sales are down 21% and pending short sales are down 49% for the same period. Pending conventional sales are up 126% to 206 pending homes. AVERAGE SOLD PRICE by SELLER TYPE # Sold June 2013 # Sold June 2012 Yr/Yr % Change Average Sold Price June 13 Average Sold Price June 12 Yr/Yr % Change Total Sold 166 181 -8.3% $343,567 $301,982 13.8% REO 7 36 -80.6% $212,464 $192,489 10.4% Conventional 127 99 28.3% $370,988 $385,363 -3.7% Short Sale 32 46 -30.4% $263,421 $208,219 26.5% Sold: Sales numbers for SFR (Single Family Residence) for June 2013 were 166 units sold. Foreclosures accounted for 7.7% of properties on the market the end of Q2-13, and 4.2% of sales in June 2013. Short sales accounted for 4.9% of all Active inventory, and 19.3% of sales. Conventional sales accounted for the rest (87.4%) of Active inventory and 76.5% of sales. That is up from 56% of sales in December of 2012.
  • 26. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 26 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report San Joaquin County The year started, January 1, 2013, with 636 listings and ended the second Quarter (July 1, 2013) with 708 listing available for sale. That is a 11% increase. REO (foreclosure) inventory is down 46% from January 1 to July 1, 2013 and Active Short Sales are down 50.5%. Conventional sales inventory is up 43%. Pending: Pending sales are up 18% from Jan. 1, 2013 to July 1, 2013: from 844 to 754 homes. Pending foreclosure sales are down 50%. Pending short sales are down 30.5%, and pending conventional sales are up 71.4%. AVERAGE SOLD PRICE by SELLER TYPE # Sold June 2013 # Sold Dec. 2012 Yr/Yr % Change Average Sold Price June 13 Average Sold Price June 12 Yr/Yr % Change Total Sold 583 725 -19.6% $234,471 $204,235 14.8% REO 66 135 -51.1% $196,605 $161,250 21.9% Conventional 378 339 11.5% $256,931 $224,778 14.3% Short Sale 139 251 -44.6% $191,373 $199,610 -4.1%
  • 27. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 27 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report Sold: Sales numbers for SFR (Single Family Residence) for June 2013 were 583 units sold. Foreclosures accounted for 8.3% of properties on the market the end of Q2-13, and 11.3% of sales in June 2013. Short sales accounted for 7.8% of all Active inventory, and 23.8% of sales. Conventional sales accounted for the rest (83.9%) of Active inventory and 64.8% of sales. That is up from 46.8% of sales in December of 2011.
  • 28. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 28 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report HISTORICAL PRICE GRAPHS:
  • 29. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 29 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report PLACER COUNTY:
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  • 31. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 31 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report SACRAMENTO COUNTY:
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  • 39. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 39 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report RESOURCES: ABREVIATIONS CAR = California Association of Realtors HAFA = Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternative HAMP = Home Affordable Mortgage Program MLS = Multiple Listing Service NAR = National Association of Realtors NOD = Notice of Default NOT = Notice of Trustee Sale REO = Real Estate Owned by a bank, or foreclosure SAR = Sacramento Association of Realtors WRE = Wright Real Estate ADDITIONAL RESOURCES MetrolistMLS.com- to search for properties. www.metrolistmls.com NorthState Building Industry Association (BIA) www.northstatebia.org Rental Housing Association (RHA) www.rha.org Sacramento Association of Realtors (SAR) www.sacrealtor.org
  • 40. January - June, 2013 www.WrightRealEstate.us Page 40 (916) 726-8308 Wright Report Serving Sacramento since 2000. Check out our BLOG and additional STATISTICS on the web at: www.WrightRealEstate.US For FREE Information and Consulting Services contact us: Office: 916.726.8308 Info@WrightRealEstate.US