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EFOW Presentation- 2019 Nyenrode Corporate Governance Institute
1. Founding partners
Strategic Choices in the Boardroom:
- the next steps in Energy Transition and Change-
- Presentation & Open Dialogue-
3 June 2019, Nyenrode-
Adriaan Kamp
Energy For One World
Global Change, Energy, Paris Climate
Agreement and UN SDGs
2. Adriaan Kamp
Energy For One World (2012- Present)
A consulting practice on Global Change, Energy Architecture,
UN SDG’s and Leadership.
Program Director Executive Energy (transition) & Leadership
Education
20 years Industry and Shell International Upstream ( 5
Countries and EPHQ).
3. Contents of Session
1. Years 2015-2019: Global Change, Energy Transition, Climate
Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030
2. Bridge into the Boardroom: Strategic Choices in the
Boardroom: The Next Steps (“lenses on”) Energy Transition and
Change
2. Open Dialogue and our Opportunities for Next Steps
4. Global Context Period 2015-Now
1. Global Change and Geo-Politics of Emotions
2. New Energy Realities
- - www.energyandstuff.org
- New Era for Energy Politics (Davos WEF 2018)
- Strategic Outlook on Energy (Davos WEF 2019)
- New Technologies, Architectures and Market Models
- Energy available, affordable and sustainable: “Free of Concerns”
3. Paris Climate Change Agreement and COP24 Katowice
4. UN Sustainable Development¶
5. Our Collective Leadership
15. Club Of Rome- 50 years: Book Launch:
Come on! Short-termism, Population
and the Destruction of the Planet
Ernst von Weizsacker/ Anders Wijkman
Age of Discovery- Navigating the
Risk and Rewards of our New Age
Renaissance.
Ian Goldin- Oxford Martin School
15
19. SG Guterres at WEF Davos : “in one sentence”
19
Guterres: The world’s problems are “more and more integrated” but the response to
them is increasingly “fragmented” and “dysfunctional”,
22. UNEP Emission Gap Report 2018
This year’s report shows—among other findings—that there is a
need for three to five times higher reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions than the goals agreed by the world’s countries in the
Paris Agreement.
The distance has increased between climate commitments and
the reduction of greenhouse gases needed if we are to meet the
goals in the Paris Agreement.
“There’s thus both a large gap between what the world’s
countries have promised to do and what is needed, and another
gap between the commitments made and what’s actually being
done.”
– The IEA reports that fossil fuel production and consumption,
and thus also carbon emissions, are on the rise, our carbon
budget for a 1.5-2 Degrees Celsius scenario already consumed.
22
37. Davos 2018- “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World”
• The global context today has changed dramatically: geostrategic
fractures have re-emerged on multiple fronts with wide-ranging
political, economic and social consequences.
• “Our collective inability to secure inclusive growth and preserve our
scarce resources puts multiple global systems at risk simultaneously.
Our first response must be to develop new models for cooperation
that are not based on narrow interests but on the destiny of humanity
as a whole," said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman,
World Economic Forum.
37
38. Founding partners
25.05.2018
Geopolitical shifts and re-alignments
• Economic and finance system change and fundamentals
• A new technological era: 4th Industrial Revolution.
• Global production systems & the rise of new (multinational)
corporations
• Social Changes (networked economies), and the quest for social
wealth & justice
• Planetary boundaries/ Resource Scarcities/ Loss of Biodiversity
and Nature
• Demographic change and migration/ Changing labour markets
Global Change
39. 39
2015
2030-2050
7 Billion
People
10 Billion
People
90 trillion
USD
economy
180-210
trillion USD
225 million
oil eq/day
(15 TW)
500- 750 million
oil eq/day
(55 TW)
405 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget
consumed for 2 degrees/ 21st century
??? ppm CO2 and
Climate Change Effects
40. BRIC:
It’s our time. Let us grow our
Economies and take care of our
people
You’ll fix whatever you want to
fix!
The West:
“If you do as I have done it
will be
a mess.”
Let us all change- rapidly
Let’s secure our nation,
people and planet
Emerging:
Will there be enough for
us?
Can i afford it?
Who will deliver it to me?
The poor:
When will we see
electricity and get
mobility?
Opec and GasPec:
You need us!
We can deliver your needs!
What is all that fuzz about
Availability and climate change?
43. Between Oceans and Mountains: There is a Sky!
• The Sky Scenario illustrates a technically possible, but
challenging pathway for society to achieve the goals of the
Paris Agreement. Sky builds on previous Shell scenarios
publications and is our most optimistic scenario in terms of
climate outcomes.
• A new energy system is emerging. The Paris Agreement has
sent a signal around the world: climate change is a serious
issue that governments are determined to address. By 2070
there is the potential for a very different energy system to
emerge.
• The Sky Scenario outlines what we believe to be a
technologically, industrially, and economically possible route
forward, consistent with limiting the global average
temperature rise to well below 2°C from pre-industrial levels.
It reveals the potential for an energy system to emerge that
brings modern energy to all in the world, without delivering a
climate legacy that society cannot readily adapt to.
43
53. Contents of Session
1. Years 2015-2019: Global Change, Energy Transition, Climate
Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030
2. Bridge into the Boardroom: Strategic Choices in the
Boardroom: The Next Steps (“lenses on”) Energy Transition and
Change
2. Open Dialogue and our Opportunities for Next Steps
56. Our world is under construction:
The Rise of a new middle-class ( 3 Billion) – in MegaCities
and more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada
The top 10 cities by population:
1. Tokyo, (34 million)
2. Seoul (24.4 million)
3. Guangzhou (24.2 million)
4. Mexico City (23.4 million)
5. Delhi (23.2 million)
6. Mumbai (22.8 million)
7. New York (22.2 million)
8. Sao Paolo (20.9 million)
9. Manila (19.6 million)
10. Shanghai (19.4 million)
All above fit comfortably into the list
Of Top-50 nations by population
57.
58. Organizing ourselves: “zippered”- in dimensions
Mainstream
• UN Re-organisation (0)
• Governments (1)
• Corporates and Global Compact (2a)
• Government- Business- Science Community (UN SDSN) (2b)
• New Entrants/ Innovators/ Game-changers (3)
• Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4)
1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system
Bottoms-up
• Community, Start-up Community (5)
65. 65
Russia Priority National Projects -
The Yuzhny Satellite Town is one of the most
ambitious multi-functional development projects in
Russia.
Source: START Development
66.
67. Click to Go To
Website
Germany: An example how it works- in real
69. Siemens
Dismantling an Icon
Since Kaeser took charge in 2013, there has been a flurry
of spinoffs, carveouts and joint ventures at the German
giant
● May 2014: Siemens slims its divisions to nine from
16; carves out health care and announces listing of
hearing aid business
● September 2014: Siemens sells stake in kitchen and
washing machine business to Bosch
● November 2014: Sells hearing-aid unit to EQT for
2.14 billion euros ($2.4 billion)
● June 2016: Announces merger of wind power
division to form Siemens Gamesa
● November 2016: Announces Siemens Healthineers
will be brought to market
● February 2019: Plan to form rail joint venture with
France’s Alstom is blocked by European authorities
● May 2019: Siemens announces plan to carve out
power and gas businesses
70. Germany Coal Commission: Phase-Out 2038
70
BERLIN (Reuters) - 26.1.2019: Germany should shut down all of its coal-fired power plants by 2038 at the latest, a government-
appointed commission said on Saturday, proposing at least 40 billion euros ($45.7 billion) in aid to regions affected by the phase-out.
71. Energy in the Netherlands (1)
• RutteIII
• What to do after “Groningen Gas
(21/12 Bcm) & New Energy
Transition (Climate) Accord- II ?
• What to do with/after Pernis?
• Electrification of Homes, Cars,
Transport and Cities
• Greening of intensive energy
Industries-, Agri-, Petro-;
• Regional Energy Markets
• What new export markets can we
create?
72. How and where to change in a market made so complex?
74. Energy in the Netherlands (2)
The challenge the Dutch are facing is a triple national budget and investment
challenge:
• 1. The decrease in (state) income due to the earlier closure of Groningen
Gas. The estimated economic value of the lost gas is between 50-125
Billion Euro.
• 2. Additional expenses to be able to import Gas (temporarily) and as
"bridging fuel" - in the transition and accelerated investments in (eg) Wind
Offshore, as an alternative to the loss of Groningen Gas.
• 3. Renovation of Dutch energy architecture: Investments in electrification,
the built environment and agri-, industry- to "get off gas / gasless" and to
meet Paris [1]
74
79. Focus Areas (Energy Sector)
(Year 2019 and beyond- example only)
Oil& Petrochemicals – Plastics in the
Oceans, Fumes in the Air, and Carbon
in the Atmosphere
Gas, Emissions vs New Power- and
Mobility- Energy Architectures
Energy Architecture Developments,
Economies and UN SDGs
GeoPolitics, Free trade and “Energy
to All” or
“Energy-Economies Free of Concerns”
Change &
Transformation
80. Old and New Clickable Presentations
Vs 350 Bn USD investment
83. Example Shell (2):
“A decisive step to a cleaner energy future”
Royal Dutch Shell pledged to double its investment in
renewable fuels and to cut its carbon emissions in half by
2050.
• In comments to investors, Ben van Beurden, Shell’s chief
executive, said that from 2018 to 2020, the company’s
new-energies division would spend up to $2 billion a
year on renewable energy sources like wind, solar and
hydrogen power and on electric-car charging stations.
• Mr. van Beurden stressed that the pledge was just a
start and that the company supported the goal of
the Paris accord, which is to keep global temperatures
83
It’s time for Shell to accelerate its efforts in
the transition to a lower-carbon world. This
is how I plan to drive change through the
company.- 8 December 2017
84. Example Shell (3):
“A decisive step to a cleaner energy future”
Into the 2020s, however, we plan a greater focus on
revenue streams that will be less constrained by policies
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including
petrochemicals and electricity. Shell has made a series of
moves in recent months to strengthen its position in the
power industry, with deals to buy Texas electricity group
MP2, electric vehicle charging company NewMotion, and
UK energy retailer First Utility.
“If you fast forward with another twenty, thirty, forty,
fifty years, the power segment is going to be a very
dominant part of the total energy system,” Mr van
Beurden said. “At the moment it’s only 18 per cent but it
will be more than 50 by the time this century is over. So
we cannot pass up on that opportunity.”
84
It’s time for Shell to accelerate its efforts in
the transition to a lower-carbon world. This
is how I plan to drive change through the
company.- 8 December 2017
85. Example Shell (4):
2018 European Cleantech Corporation of the Year.
• The European Cleantech Corporation of the Year award exists to recognize “a
major European enterprise whose activities, actions and consistent support over
multiple years have significantly contributed to the growth of cleantech
innovation, and/or demand for cleaner products and services, and who has made
some particularly noteworthy actions over the last 12 months.”
• The 2018 European Cleantech Corporation of the Year was awarded to Shell. The
following three reasons are why Shell stood out for this award:
• 1. The sense of a new level of commitment and action, with which Shell is
gripping the challenges of the huge and disruptive transitions ongoing in the world
of energy and transportation, and the urgency with which it has been making
strategic moves.
• 2. The range of actions it has been taking. A few examples to illustrate include:
• a. New Energy Solutions. Capital commitments of on average $1-2bn per annum
behind this relatively new initiative (launched in May 2016) represents a
significant commitment by Shell to transforming its own business model.
• b. Commitments to lower carbon. Shell announced plans in Nov 2017 to cut the
net carbon footprint of its energy products by around half by 2050, with an interim
step of 20% by 2035 in line with society.
• c. Acquisitions. There have been a number, but most striking are MP2 Energy and
First Utility, for example, that set out Shell’s clear strategic intent to become a
player in the electricity markets of the future.
• d. Shell Ventures, Springboard and other initiatives and their work with the global
innovation ecosystem and entrepreneurs, shaping the future industrial world.
• e. A global player. We have seen deals across the map,
geographically and in terms of the different dynamics on energy’s
future – from renewables to EV charging, from mobility services to
energy access.
• f. Working in partnership with peers. Shell is one of the founding
members of OGCI (Oil & Gas Climate Initiative), the cross-industry
effort to de-carbonise the oil & gas industry.
• 3. The actions and transactions levels have noticeably increased
over the last 12 months.
• a. Shell has been the most active European-based CVC across the
energy and industrial innovation themes we cover. Deals have
included Axiom Energy, Husk Power, HyET, Innowatts, Steamaco, and
Sunseap.
• b. Shell has been an active acquirer. Examples over the period
include:
• i. The significant stake acquired in the US solar developer, Silicon
Ranch Corporation (Jan 2018)
ii. The entry into the UK retail market via the acquisition of First
Utility (Dec 2017)
iii. The acquisition of the Dutch venture-backed
company, NewMotion, the pan-European network of electric vehicle
charging stations (Oct 2017)
iv. The acquisition of Texas-based MP2 Energy, a leader in Demand
Response Solutions (formally closed in September 2017)
85
90. New Possibility Thinking (2)-
Large, Larger, Largest Solar Farms (Example First Solar)
2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024
2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr
5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr
3500 hectares
160,000 homes
1,5 Bn USD
550 MW
8 million panels
91. New Possibility Thinking (3)-
Large, Larger, Largest Offshore Wind Farm’s (Examples only)
4
2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024
2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr
5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr
An offshore area of 100km2
175 wind turbines
Two offshore substations
Nearly 450km of offshore cabling
One onshore substation
630MW of electricity
Enough power for nearly half a million homes
93. New Possibility Thinking (5)- Car-manufacturer, Carlos Ghosn
Electric Vehicles sales are in direct
correlation with the number and
amount of charging stations installed
in a city, region or nation.
It's a public-private partnership. It's a
matter of trust. It's a matter of
convenience. But it surely the way to
go into our Future.
(Carlos doesnot believe in fuel-celled LPV's. He
is truly committed to the electrification of self-
driving and navigating new car concepts)
96. New Possibility Thinking (6)-
Tony Seba- RethinkX (TaaS) study on personal mobility
96
TaaS= Transport as a
Service
97. ..But with a possible rare earth metal (mining) scarcity..
Cobalt
97
98. New Possibility Thinking(7)Smart Cities
The vision of “Smart Cities” is the urban center of the future, made safe, secure environmentally
green, and efficient because all structures - whether for power, water, transportation, etc. are
designed, constructed, and maintained making use of advanced, integrated materials, sensors,
electronics, and networks which are interfaced with computerized systems comprised of databases,
tracking, and decision-making algorithms. - U.S. Dept. of Energy, “The Vision of a Smart City”,
2000
Examples of New, Smart or Sustainable Cities:
• C40 – Vancouver, Oslo, New York, etc.
• Masdar, Abu Dhabi,
• New Songho City, South Korea,
• Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, India
• King Abdullah + Economic Cities Saudi Arabia
• e.g. China Tianjin Development
•PM Modi’s 100 smart cities
•King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia
111. Contents of Session
1. Year 2015-2018: Global Change, New Energies Realities
Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030
2. Organising ourselves
2. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal)
Leadership
127. Napoleon’s Six Winning Principles, and Leading in the Front
• EXACTITUDE
awareness, research and continuous planning
• SPEED
reducing resistance, increasing urgency, and providing
focus
• FLEXIBILITY
building teams that are adaptable, empowered and
unified
• SIMPLICITY
clear, simple objectives, messages, and processes
• CHARACTER
integrity, calmness, and responsibility
• MORAL FORCE
providing order, purpose, recognition and rewards
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
132. UPSTREAM
OFFSHORE
PLATFORM
OIL
SANDS
Bitumen
DOWNSTREAM
Feedstock
Synthetic
crude oil
Fuels, lubricants and speciality products including
Bitumen and liquefied petroleum gas
UPGRADER
PLANT
Oil
REFINERY
Gas
LNG
LIQUEFICATION
PLANT
GAS TO
LIQUIDS
PLANT
BIOFUELS
PLANT
BIOFUELS
PLANT
WIND
TURBINES
Energy for industrial
and domestic use
LNG
REGASIFICATION
TERMINAL
POWER
STATION
ONSHORE
PRODUCTION FACILITY
Gas
Oil
CHEMICAL
PLANT
Petrochemicals used for plastics,
Coatings and detergents
Global Oil & Gas businesses
137. From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy
sources, carriers and demand sectors shaped by government, industry and civil society.
The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio-political,
economic, ecological and business philosophies, leadership and interests
exercised on location.
The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of,
establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and
sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there.
Now and in the future.
137
Energy Architecture
140. Princeton Wedges
Grow and Safe Energy
Change Energy Supply Source
Change Energy Architecture
Change Products (Cars, Homes) &
Industry Designs
Change Energy- Economy and
Direction of Lifestyles
Change Leadership Paradigm
140
142. Levels of Change
• Level 1
• Level 2
• Level 3
• Level 4
• Change and No Change. Resistance to Change. Policy, Administrative and Derivative Change
(CO2 tax, ETS, Accounting). Coal vs. Gas. Continued backroom lobbying
• Full Integration of Renewables (clean-tech, energy conservations, smartness, etc.) in the Energy
Architecture - but not with a system change. Retained regulations, ownership , revenue, tax and
capital control structures
• Transition to a New Energy Architecture and Newly shared socio-economic and corporate
business models- also in international trade
• Transformation of Economies and Societies. Eco-modernity and New human consciousness
143. The way it works: Country Categories and Markets (1)
• OECD- USA, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia
• (Richer, Resource based) OPEC/ GasPec
• China Inc., India Inc.
• Developing (without Resources)
• Developing (with Resources)
• Least developed. Poor.
144. The way it works (2) : A New Formula in Business and Trade
145. Mainstream
• Governments (1)
• Energy Corporates and Incumbents (2)
• New Entrants/ Innovators/ Change-makers (3)
• Non-Energy Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4)
1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system
Bottoms-up
• Community, Start-up Community (5)
The way it works (3): New Forms of Collaborations
146. The way it works (4): Finding the Rubik-Cube Combination
“Organizational Forms and Formats” - that works
146
e.g.
Country Catogories,
Geographies &
Markets
Business Formula-
and
Cross-Sectors
Forms of
Collaboration
151. “Every Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this
world can be improved upon in order to raise the availability,
affordability and sustainability of energy to all”.- Adriaan
Kamp, -2015
Every Country and Every Organization in this World can be
improved upon in order to raise the human, social, economic
and sustainable development to all- Adriaan Kamp- 2015
151
152. "The invitation we have today is to see and to blend our consciousness
and care for Deep Humanity and Deep ecology with our more
mainstream energy economics and politics- at play"
Let us direct our work and collective efforts towards attaining
“Energy Free of Concerns"
Adriaan Kamp
152
155. Rex Tillerson Plain Leadership Lesson (1) – at US State
Department
Accountability
Honesty
Respect
One TEAM, One Mission
(“Hi- I am the New Guy”)
156. Environment - too
Rex Tillerson Leadership Lesson (2) – at US State
Department
156
System Rethink
World View
Re-Organisation Approach
Unconstrained Re-think
Respect to Staff
158. Servant Leadership
• Compassionate love
• Authenticity
• Humbleness
• Empowerment
• Provide direction
• Stewardship
Here’s the essence of the gospel of Greenleaf. First and
foremost, truly great managers want to serve the people they
lead. They do this by supporting them rather than dictating to
them, and by assigning top priority to employee well-being.
Deceptively simple and deeply profound
159. Example Shell AGM: Shell, investors and the
People
The People Shell AGM
159
162. Ernest Gundling: Understanding Cultures and
Relationships. The way it works
Energy For One World- 2017, All Rights Reserved
163. Hofstede: Cultures and Organizations. The
way it works
163
The Way it Works for a System Rethink
World View
Cultures
Institutions
Our Leadership Ways
166. 166
1. Sustainable Development- a new kind of
Globalization (2016)
2. Sustainable Humanity (2012)
3. We can no longer manage decency (2018)
“Leading Global Decency”
167.
168. Contents of Session
1. Years 2015-2019: Global Change, Energy Transition, Climate
Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030
2. Bridge into the Boardroom: Strategic Choices in the
Boardroom: The Next Steps (“lenses on”) Energy Transition and
Change
2. Open Dialogue and our Opportunities for Next Steps
169. A practice on Global Change, Energy Architecture, UN SDG’s and Our Leadership.
Energy For One World
Adriaan Kamp (Founder)
Skype: Adriaan.Kamp
TelCall Direct line (Netherlands):
0031-614939194
E-Mail:
adriaankamp@energyforoneworld.com
www.EnergyForOneWorld.com
172. Networked
Society
✓ Away with traditional country and/or
corporate borders : City-Hubs.
✓ Horizontal, cross-border
collaborations
✓ Cultural awareness and tolerance
Power to the People
173. ✓ Expansion of wealth, ownership and new growth
✓ Continued Consumerism and Hedonistic life-styles.
✓ Short-termism, Schumpeter, Ayn Rand, Resilience
✓ A world of larger inequalities and divisions:
✓ Rich and poor. Have’s and Have Not’s
Money First
Shared
Capitalis
m
174. ✓ A world of Power , Principles and
Politics
✓ Polarisation between Beliefs and/or
Power Blocks
✓ The Geo-politics of Emotions
Power to the Strongest,
First
Darwin
175. Techno
Modernity
✓ The world of Prof. Michio Kaku and
✓ Kurz Weill Singularity
✓ Game-changers and Disruptive
Innovations
✓ A world of Smart Cities, New Surprises ,
The Rule of Science &
Technology
176. ✓ Conscious Capitalism
✓ The rise of new (global and business)
leadership: Gandhi’s and Mandela’s
✓ Neuroscience , psychology and spirituality
✓ Gaia, Oneness and Global Mind-set.
Transformative
leadership
Conscious
Humanity
177. 177
We cannot save the Planet (Climate, Nature), if we cannot save
the People (Economy, Social Justice).
The People cannot be saved, if the Planet (Nature) is broken, at
risk or fails (e.g. pollution, resource scarcities, climate risks).
We better first solve (our problems), before we can make true
progress and change”
178. Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
“”Resistance to change falls when the benefits are
made clear
Resistance to change falls when the Story feels Right
(“The Star” is Chosen “Right”)
We cannot run ourselves into Sustainability
179. Leadership and Vision: Opportunity
Framing and Decision Based Delivery
• The possibility for Value Creation is largest in the Early Stages of any opportunity
How good is your
Opportunity
Framing ?
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
180.
181. *
An open enterprise web for leading cyclic and open innovations..
Technology
Scientific
Breakthrou
ghs
Product/Market
Combination
Societal
Transitions
Enterprise
Soft-Knowledge
Cycle
Open Market
Cycle
Engineering
Cycle
Hard-Knowledge
Cycle