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RISE OF THE SMART GRID                            Special Report by Zpryme’s Smart Grid Insights | January, 2011




Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved
“
China: Rise of the Smart Grid                                                                   These plans are part of a massive, nationwide initiative to improve the
                                                                                                efficiency of the existing electricity grid, to expand the grid to provide
The Smart Grid system is the top priority in China's [Internet of Things]                       electricity to rural areas, to manage demand to avoid outages and
development.                                                                                    overloads, and to connect power-generating facilities in the western part
                                              - People's Daily Online1                          of the country to the heavily populated east coast by 2020. In 2011,
                                                                                                China will move beyond an initial planning phase and begin this massive
    he challenge facing China‟s power sector is no secret. Needing to                           project. Without any doubt, the challenge ahead is monumental. In the
    meet sky rocketing electricity demand fueled by its explosive                               coming decade, China‟s government, state-owned utilities, and hundreds
economic growth, China‟s power sector faces an undertaking at a scale                           of international and domestics companies will work to meet this
unlike any other seen before in the world. While it is the largest                              challenge.
consumer of energy followed by the United States, the projected growth                                                     China Smart Grid Market by Segment
                                                                                                                               2010 – 2015 | in U.S. billions
of China‟s economy, along with the energy intensity of its industries,
underscores the necessity of increasing power generation capacity and                                                                                                              CAGR
                                                                                                                                2010    2011    2012    2013     2014     2015
                                                                                              Smart Grid Segment                                                                („10 – „15)
improving energy efficiency.2 With net electricity generation set to grow                     Software & Hardware                $4.0    $5.0    $6.7    $8.5    $10.6   $13.0    26.4%
at eight and a half percent per annum during the next five years,                             Smart Meters                       $1.0    $1.4    $1.9    $2.5     $3.1    $3.9    30.2%
Zpryme estimates that China must build transmission infrastructure that                       Sensors                            $3.9    $4.5    $5.5    $6.4     $7.4    $8.5    16.7%
will be able to effectively deliver just over six trillion kilowatts of                       Comm. & Wireless Infrastructure    $2.5    $3.6    $5.1    $6.9     $9.3   $12.5    38.1%
electricity to more than a billion customers and energy intensive factories.                  Smart T&D Equipment                $4.5    $6.5    $9.4   $13.1    $17.1   $21.2    36.4%
To meet this challenge, China has outlined major plans and dedicated                          Other                              $1.1    $1.3    $1.5    $1.8     $2.0    $2.3    15.5%
billions of dollars to research, design and build a nationwide Smart Grid.                    Total Smart Grid Market Value     $17.1   $22.3   $30.1   $39.2    $49.6   $61.4    29.1%
Zpryme projects the total value of China‟s Smart Grid market to rise
                                                                                                                                                                            Source: Zpryme
from $22.3 billion USD in 2011 to $61.4 billion USD in 2015, an annual
growth rate of 29.1 percent over five years.                                                    China: Government Initiatives in the Smart Grid
                  Projected China Smart Grid Equipment & Technology Market
                                 2010 - 2015 | in U.S. billions                                      hina‟s current transmission infrastructure is poorly designed and
                            Compound Annual Growth Rate = 29.1%                                      managed. The majority of China‟s energy resources and power
      $70                                                                                       generation capacity is concentrated in areas far away from the densely
                                                                                 $61.4
      $60
                                                                                                populated, energy hungry east coast. To combat deprived power
                                                                  $49.6                         distribution and to unify the disparate regional grids, China‟s
      $50                                                                                       government intends to construct three major transmission lines, each
                                                        $39.2                                   expected to reach 20 GW of transmission capacity by 2020. Known as
      $40
                                               $30.1                                            the West-East Electricity Transfer Project, this massive undertaking will
      $30                                                                                       provide flexibility and increase system wide generation capacity to
                                $22.3
                 $17.1                                                                          mitigate the electricity shortages that have plagued China in the past.
      $20
                                                                                                This project features the construction of some of the highest voltage,
      $10                                                                                       longest transmission lines in the world, including the world's first 1,000-
                                                                                                kilovolt alternating current power line that runs for 640 kilometers
       $0
                 2010            2011           2012    2013      2014            2015
                                                                                                between Shanxi and Hubei.3
                                                                             Source: Zpryme

1   China's leading national newspaper, December 2010
2   www.eia.gov                                                                                 3   www.reuters.com
1        www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org                                                                                             China: Rise of the Smart Grid | January 2011
Beyond helping to meet soaring electricity demand, China‟s efforts to           where improving electricity grids is initiated on a regional level, China‟s
build a nationwide Smart Grid will play an integral role in helping it          enormous state-owned transmission companies and streamlined
achieve two goals over the next 10 years:                                       regulatory processes facilitate rapid construction without barriers that
                                                                                are characteristic in more developed countries. These factors have made
     1. Increasing renewable energy power generation enough to meet             China the largest, most important market for Smart Grid development in
        15 percent of energy demand by 2020.                                    the world.
     2. Reducing the carbon intensity of China‟s economy by 40 to 45            China: Electric Utility Initiatives
        percent by 2020 from a 2005 baseline.
China‟s push to increase renewable generation capacity is predicated on             egulations were recently passed that will require Chinese utilities to
sending power generated from wind farms, hydroelectric dams, and                    reduce energy sales volume by 0.3 percent a year through efficiency
solar power plants to cities along the east coast. However,                     gains. China‟s largest transmission company, State Grid Corporation of
approximately 30 percent of wind turbines in China are not currently            China (SGCC), is the driving force behind China‟s efforts to build a
connected to a transmission network; highlighting the limited reach and         nationwide Smart Grid. As the world‟s largest transmission company that
poor design of China‟s electricity grid (it‟s important to note that            covers 88 percent of China and serves over 1 billion customers, SGCC
according to a report by AMSC on January 11, 2011 China has now                 has enormous influence over not only the development of Smart Grid
installed more wind power capacity than any other nation).4 Despite             infrastructure, design, and management in China but also throughout the
completing the first phase of a 10 GW wind farm located near the city           world. China‟s other major transmission company; China Southern Power
of Jiuquan in November 2010, the wind farm‟s remote location and                Grid Company (CSG) has taken a secondary role in developing Smart
China‟s poor transmission infrastructure has limited actual grid connected      Grid technologies, waiting for SGCC to complete its planning and
generation to 1.15 GW out of 5.16 GW of total installed capacity.5 A            research phases before developing plans to upgrade its own grid.
Smart Grid will not only increase renewable energy capacity but also                                              China's Projected Net Electricity Generation
help manage electricity demand in dense urban centers that are                                                      2000 - 2015 | in billion kilowatt hours
expected to grow with workers continuing to migrate to eastern cities
and improving living standards, thus increasing their thirst for electricity.     7,000                                                                                                             6,270
The advantages of Smart Grid technology will help China meet the
government‟s two environmental goals and in turn provide security                 6,000
against swings in global energy prices and help to avoid power
shortages and overloads.                                                          5,000                                                                         4,170

                                                                                  4,000
While developing a reliable, countrywide Smart Grid is an enormous
challenge, China‟s size and regulatory system provide inherent                    3,000
advantages that will help it achieve its goals. The massive size of China‟s
nationwide Smart Grid provides an economy of scale that is unmatched              2,000
anywhere in the world, helping to reduce costs and spark domestic
manufacturing of Smart Grid equipment. While utilities in the United              1,000
States are updating infrastructure and trying to upgrade old equipment,
China has the advantage of building Smart Grid technology into                        0
                                                                                          2000

                                                                                                 2001

                                                                                                        2002

                                                                                                               2003

                                                                                                                      2004

                                                                                                                             2005

                                                                                                                                    2006

                                                                                                                                           2007

                                                                                                                                                  2008

                                                                                                                                                         2009

                                                                                                                                                                 2010

                                                                                                                                                                        2011

                                                                                                                                                                               2012

                                                                                                                                                                                      2013

                                                                                                                                                                                             2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                     2015
transmission infrastructure from the outset. Also, unlike the United States
                                                                                                                                           Source: U.S. EIA & The China Electricity Council
4 www.atimes.com
5 www.windtech-international.com


2     www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org                                                                                             China: Rise of the Smart Grid | January 2011
In accordance with the Chinese government‟s plans, SGCC has divided                                     demonstration project at the Shanghai World Expo. Using the
the development of a Smart Grid into three phases, planning to invest a                                 experience gained from these projects, SGCC released a set of industry
total of $601 billion USD into a nationwide transmission network with                                   rules, standards, and favored technologies for 22 criteria of Smart Grid
$101 billion USD of these funds to be dedicated to developing Smart                                     technology in June 2010.8 For both domestic and international
Grid technology.                                                                                        manufacturers of Smart Grid equipment, these standards and favored
                                                                                                        technologies have enormous impact on the products offered by their
The first phase, which ended in 2010, focused on planning Smart Grid                                    businesses. The standardization of components for such a massive project
construction by outlining technical standards, developing technology and                                yields an economy of scale that at least initially dwarfs any other source
equipment, and implementing pilot projects. The total investment of this                                of demand for Smart Grid equipment. Chinese manufacturers, who
phase was $77.8 billion USD including a $9.2 billion USD investment into                                already make the bulk of Smart Grid equipment for the world, will shift
Smart Grid technology. The second phase will last until 2015 and will                                   their focus to equipment that meets SGCC‟s standardization, making it
see the construction of a reliable nationwide transmission grid, including                              cheaper and more readily available than other Smart Grid equipment.
operational Smart Grid management systems, wide spread deployment
of smart meters, and enough EV charging stations to accommodate the                                     The Smart Grid will also play a key role in China‟s efforts to build
use of EVs. This phase will invest $282.9 billion USD with $45.8 billion                                infrastructure to support electric vehicles (EVs). In June 2010, SGCC
USD of these funds dedicated to Smart Grid technology. The final phase                                  announced plans to fully develop an electric vehicle charging network,
will last from 2016 to 2020 and complete China‟s nationwide grid by                                     intending to establish 75 public charging stations, 6,209 AC charging
connecting all planned coal, hydroelectric, nuclear and wind power                                      spots, and a handful of battery replacement stations in Shanghai,
generation facilities to areas of high demand in a reliable, intelligently                              Beijing, Tianjin and other cities that will serve as pilot projects.9 This
managed transmission network. The last phase will invest $240.5 billion                                 announcement follows a string of projects launched by SGCC aimed at
USD into building this transmission grid with $45.8 billion USD of these                                introducing EVs to China. Since 2006 the SGCC has procured 101
funds dedicated to Smart Grid technology.6                                                              electric vehicles, constructed 30 pilot charging stations and collaborated
                                                                                                        with Beijing‟s municipal government to design 7 electric bus lines for 58
                                                                                                        electric buses.10 In 2008, SGCC built the infrastructure to charge 55
                                      SGCC Strengthened Smart Grid Plan
                                        2010 – 2020 | in U.S. billions
                                                                                                        electric buses and over 400 electric vehicles to move athletes and staff
                                                                                                        during Beijing‟s Olympic Games.11 China‟s other large transmission
    Phase            Time Period
                                               Total Investment
                                                                    UHV Investment
                                                                                         Smart Grid     company, CSG, is also facilitating the spread of EVs by establishing
                                                   Amount                                Investment     charging stations in Shenzhen, Nanning and Guilin. CSG recently signed
     1              2009 - 2010                       77.8              12.1                 9.2
                                                                                                        an agreement with BYD Co. to build an energy storage station with 3
     2              2011 - 2015                      282.9              43.8                45.8
                                                                                                        megawatts of capacity in Shenzhen.12
     3              2016 - 2020                      240.5              36.5                45.8
                 Total (2009 - 2020)                 601.1              92.4                100.8
                                                            Source: SGCC Strengthened Smart Grid Plan
                                                                                                        China: Industry Players Making Moves
                                                                           (released on May 21, 2009)
                                                                                                           he size of China‟s Smart Grid market has brought attention from
During the first phase, SGCC implemented 228 Smart Grid pilot projects                                     infrastructure companies, IT and networking solutions providers, and
to solve technical issues, test designs, and develop management systems.7                               Smart Grid equipment manufacturers from across the globe. When
These projects covered the entire gamut of Smart Grid implementation,                                   asked about the Smart Grid opportunity in China Fulei Yang of Alcatel
ranging from connecting wind power plants to automating distribution                                    Lucent expressed to Zpryme, “State Grid Company of China (SGCC) is
networks to metering households. The projects were implemented across
different regions of China, including a highly publicized Smart Grid                                    8 www.nist.gov
                                                                                                        9 www.sgcc.com.cn
                                                                                                        10 www.sgcc.com.cn
6   State Grid Corporation of China                                                                     11 www.huliq.com
7   www.nist.gov                                                                                        12 www.bloomberg.com


3        www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org                                                                                           China: Rise of the Smart Grid | January 2011
putting huge investment into „Smart Grid‟, specially focusing on                      solutions to automate distribution and manage electricity demand is the
distribution networks -- in an attempt to prevent it from splitting from the          best way for foreign firms to capitalize on China‟s booming Smart Grid
transmission network. In the meantime, SGCC is building a strong supply               industry. Zpryme projects that the software and hardware segment of
chain internally, making their own specifications and standards,                      China‟s Smart Grid market will grow from $4.0 billion USD in 2010 to
manufacturing equipment, and integrating them into their own                          $13.0 billion USD in 2015, an annual growth rate of 26.4 percent.
grid. Southern Grid of China (SGC) is acting differently -- wait and see              Ignacio Gonzalez, CEO of Telvent told Zpryme, “While China is a top
the policy from central government.”                                                  consumer of energy, it is also placing immense importance on building a
                                                                                      smart grid infrastructure to ensure that energy is procured, managed,
With over $600 billion USD expected to be invested into electricity                   and delivered efficiently. As part of this effort, Telvent is proud to be
infrastructure and Smart Grid technology over the next 10 years, firms                working with the State Grid through our projects with Shanxi Electric
within the Smart Grid space cannot afford to ignore China‟s booming                   Power Company and the Southern Grid with Guizhou Electric Power. We
market. However, China‟s insular business community and favoritism for                hope to continue our partnership with China, offering the technology and
domestic firms pose major obstacles for companies seeking to profit from              solutions it needs to build a smart grid for the 21st century.” Large
China‟s Smart Grid investment. In response, foreign companies have                    industry players such as Telvent have already made inroads in both
sought to establish alliances and partnerships with Chinese companies,                these market segments and others:
leveraging their superior knowledge and experience to gain access to
contracts and pilot projects in hopes of expanding business once large-               Foreign companies getting involved:
scale investment and construction begins.
                                                                                            In January 2011 The State Grid Corp. of China, Chinese
                  Projected China Smart Grid Market by Technology
                           2010 and 2015 | in U.S. billions                                  Academy of Science and GE are going to collaborate in
                                                                                             standardizing Smart Grid technology (from the State-owned
    Smart T&D Equipment
                                                                            $21.2            Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of China). The
                                         $4.5                                                three parties have signed a memorandum of understanding on
                                                                                             strategic cooperation to cover electricity charging and
       Comm. & Wireless                                $12.5                                 discharging technology for EVs, large-capacity storage systems
         Infrastructure           $2.5                                                       and network technology and other related Smart Grid
                                                                                             technology.
                                                        $13.0
    Software & Hardware
                                      $4.0                                                  In January 2011 Telvent announced that it has expanded its
                                                                                             partnership with China South Grid Guizhou Electric Power
                                                $8.5                                         Company. Based on a previous pilot project, Telvent will now
                Sensors                                              2015
                                      $3.9                                                   provide its Distribution Management System to Guizhou Power's
                                                                     2010                    entire service territory.
                                      $3.9
           Smart Meters                                                                     In January 2011 SGCC selected Landis+Gyr to supply industrial
                               $1.0
                                                                                             and commercial AMI for deployment in six provinces. The first
                          $0          $5        $10      $15        $20         $25          phase of the project involves the installation of 10,000 meters
                                                                     Source: Zpryme          (SGCC has noted that a country-wide deployment is also likely).
The largest portion of China‟s market is in Smart Grid T&D, which.
                                                                                            In January 2010, GE partnered with Yangzhou Beichen Electric
Zpryme projects will grow from $4.5 billion USD last year (‟10) to $21.2
                                                                                             Equipment Company, a subsidiary of SGCC, to build Smart Grid
billion USD by 2015, an annual growth rate of 36.4 percent. Because of
                                                                                             equipment and set up a Smart Grid demonstration center in the
China‟s limited technological capabilities, providing IT and networking
4   www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org                                                                              China: Rise of the Smart Grid | January 2011
Yangzhou New Economy and Development Zone. Over a span of
        four years, this demonstration center will implement wireless                 Cisco has been slower to enter into China‟s market, but has
        smart meters, residential demand management systems, smart                     recently restructured its East Asia business to create a Greater
        thermostats and appliances, automated outage identification and                China division that will aim to gain access to China‟s Smart Grid
        restoration systems, field-force automation, grid network                      market.
        management software, and even systems to manage plug-in
        hybrid cars. In November of 2010, GE announced further                        Over the past 4 years, Swiss-Swedish infrastructure giant ABB
        collaboration with subsidiaries of SGCC. GE and Wuhan Nari                     has received a number of substantial contracts to supply
        agreed to work together in improving the efficiency and                        transistors, power lines, and other transmission equipment to
        reliability of the electricity grid, and GE and Electric Power of              SGCC and CSG. Most recently, ABB won a contract to design,
        Shanghai agreed to jointly acquire a controlling stake of Tianling             supply and install transformers for a substation in the Jilin
        Switchgear to develop smart power distribution equipment.                      province in northeastern China. ABB also supplied equipment for
       IBM has actively sought to establish partnerships with local                   China‟s largest EV charging station in Shenzen.
        municipalities and energy companies to provide technological
        solutions primarily aimed at intelligent management systems. In               In June 2010, Siemens completed the Yunnan-Guangdong
        September 2009, IBM partnered with the industrial city of                      transmission line that is operated by CSG. It is the first HVDC link
        Shenyang to improve city management systems and to establish                   in the world. In November 2010, Siemens announced that it
        a research institute to advance eco-city technology. In November               would sign an agreement to build EV charging infrastructure.
        2009, IBM partnered with diversified Chinese energy company
        ENN Group providing a capital investment by IBM into ENN‟s                    In August 2010 Duke Energy partnered with China Huaneng
        energy services business, agreeing to jointly develop “Intelligent             Group, China‟s biggest utility, to explore a variety of clean-
        Energy” solutions, and jointly building industry expertise and skills          energy technologies.
        to serve China‟s booming energy market. In March 2010, IBM
        established an Energy & Utilities Solutions Lab in Beijing to           Chinese domestic companies getting involved:
        research ways for utility companies to improve energy delivery
        and optimize performance through network automation and                       In January 2011 China Singyes Solar Technologies has
        improved efficiency. In November 2010, IBM released a new                      completed and switched on a Smart Grid project that combines
        grid management technology that will be piloted in collaboration               wind, solar and diesel fuel power generation with energy
        with Shanghai Power to manage power outages more effectively                   storage on Dong‟ao Island in Zhuhai, Southern China. The project
        while improving grid efficiency.                                               will boost the share of green energy in the island‟s energy mix to
                                                                                       70 percent from 30 percent.
       In 2010 Hewlett-Packard acquired network equipment
        manufacturer 3Com for $2.7 billion in order to gain a foothold in
        providing China‟s Smart Grid with networking solutions.                       Two Shenzhen-based manufacturers have benefitted most from
                                                                                       China‟s push to install smart meters. In 2009, Shenzhen-based
       In March 2010, Accenture launched the Accenture Intelligent                    Clou Electronics won approximately $27 million USD worth of
        Network Data Enterprise, a platform to help utilities manage,                  orders from SGCC. Waison Group has won tenders from several
        integrate and analyze real-time data generated by millions of                  utilities throughout China and is collaborating with California-
        disparate sources throughout a utility‟s Smart Grid network.                   based Cogo Group to expand business.
        Accenture has formed an alliance with East China Grid Co and is
        participating in 10 pilot projects in China.                                  China‟s large state-owned companies have made acquisitions to
                                                                                       benefit from the coming Smart Grid boom. SGCC acquired
5   www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org                                                                        China: Rise of the Smart Grid | January 2011
electrical-equipment makers Pinggao Electric and XJ Electric in                       Private investment (venture capital) will continue to pour into
        the beginning of 2010. China Aerospace Science & Industry                              China firms that can serve the electricity infrastructure and Smart
        Corporation, the country's space and defense manufacturer,                             Grid market.
        acquired two-meter makers, Shenzhe Techrise Electronics and
        Liangli Instrument in August 2009.                                                    China will seek to become the leader across the entire EV value
                                                                                               chain. Meaning that EV manufacturers, telematic, EV charging,
       In May 2010 Siemens signed an agreement with Wasion Group                              and EV component companies should set their strategic business
        to conduct feasibility studies in an effort to launch new Smart                        dial to China in 2011.
        Grid pilot projects in the Middle Kingdom.
                                                                                              Chinese domestic firms serving the Smart Grid market will
       Since 2009 Huawei Technologies, China‟s foremost network                               expand their footprint beyond their nation‟s borders as their
        service provider, has taken steps to enter into the Smart Grid                         technologies and services will become increasingly competitive
        solutions market.                                                                      with their foreign counterparts.

China: What to Look for in 2011                                                               The Chinese government totally supports the efforts of domestic
                                                                                               and foreign Smart Grid and clean energy manufacturers through
      n olympic leap forward has been taken by China in the past 12                            subsidies, R&D funding, and major lines of credit (domestic).
      months. Where around the globe and more specifically the U.S. is at
a snail‟s crawl injecting grants and loans for Smart Grid programs and                        While utilities in the U.S. are updating infrastructure, China has
pilots, China is well ahead. The leading Asian economic power has                              the advantage of building Smart Grid technology into
proven to have more government gusto to fuel Smart Grid infrastructure                         transmission infrastructure from the outset – essentially a clean
and development. In the near future the Smart Grid sector coupled with                         slate.
clean energy industries such as solar and wind generation have the
power to determine an economy‟s energy consumption fate – well ahead                          China‟s state-owned transmission companies and streamlined
of the curve China is already in preparation mode by: building strategic                       regulatory processes facilitate rapid construction without barriers
global relationships, aggressively building electric infrastructure, and                       that are characteristic in more developed nations such as the U.S.
more importantly making the Smart Grid initiative a national policy.                           and U.K.
Other insights to consider from the report:

       More blue chip global companies such as GE, Siemens and IBM
                                                                                Zpryme Credits
        and Smart Grid centric companies such as Landis+Gyr and                 Editor      Managing Editor Research Lead
        Telvent will continue to position themselves to capitalize on the       Daniel Jung Robert Langston Sean Sayers
        China Smart Grid market without significant competition in 2011
        (as compared to the U.S.). Such moves will come in the form of
                                                                                Disclaimer
        joint-ventures, domestic firm partnerships, pilot projects, and full-   These materials and the information contained herein are provided by Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC and are intended to provide general
        blown China operations.                                                 information on a particular subject or subjects and is not an exhaustive treatment of such subject(s). Accordingly, the information in these materials
                                                                                is not intended to constitute accounting, tax, legal, investment, consulting or other professional advice or services. The information is not intended to
                                                                                be relied upon as the sole basis for any decision which may affect you or your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that
                                                                                might affect your personal finances or business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. These materials and the information contained

       China will become one step closer to clearly establishing itself as     herein is provided as is, and Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC makes no express or implied representations or warranties regarding these
                                                                                materials and the information herein. Without limiting the foregoing, Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC does not warrant that the materials or
                                                                                information contained herein will be error-free or will meet any particular criteria of performance or quality. Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC
        the world leader for Smart Grid technology.                             expressly disclaims all implied warranties, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, title, fitness for a particular purpose,
                                                                                noninfringement, compatibility, security, and accuracy. Prediction of future events is inherently subject to both known and unknown risks,
                                                                                uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to vary materially. Your use of these and the information contained herein is at your
                                                                                own risk and you assume full responsibility and risk of loss resulting from the use thereof. Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC will not be liable for
                                                                                any special, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages or any other damages whatsoever, whether in an action of contract, statute,
                                                                                tort (including, without limitation, negligence), or otherwise, relating to the use of these materials and the information contained herein.

6   www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org                                                                                                                  China: Rise of the Smart Grid | January 2011
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China: Rise of the Smart Grid [by Zpryme Research, January 2011]

  • 1. RISE OF THE SMART GRID Special Report by Zpryme’s Smart Grid Insights | January, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved
  • 2. “ China: Rise of the Smart Grid These plans are part of a massive, nationwide initiative to improve the efficiency of the existing electricity grid, to expand the grid to provide The Smart Grid system is the top priority in China's [Internet of Things] electricity to rural areas, to manage demand to avoid outages and development. overloads, and to connect power-generating facilities in the western part - People's Daily Online1 of the country to the heavily populated east coast by 2020. In 2011, China will move beyond an initial planning phase and begin this massive he challenge facing China‟s power sector is no secret. Needing to project. Without any doubt, the challenge ahead is monumental. In the meet sky rocketing electricity demand fueled by its explosive coming decade, China‟s government, state-owned utilities, and hundreds economic growth, China‟s power sector faces an undertaking at a scale of international and domestics companies will work to meet this unlike any other seen before in the world. While it is the largest challenge. consumer of energy followed by the United States, the projected growth China Smart Grid Market by Segment 2010 – 2015 | in U.S. billions of China‟s economy, along with the energy intensity of its industries, underscores the necessity of increasing power generation capacity and CAGR 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Smart Grid Segment („10 – „15) improving energy efficiency.2 With net electricity generation set to grow Software & Hardware $4.0 $5.0 $6.7 $8.5 $10.6 $13.0 26.4% at eight and a half percent per annum during the next five years, Smart Meters $1.0 $1.4 $1.9 $2.5 $3.1 $3.9 30.2% Zpryme estimates that China must build transmission infrastructure that Sensors $3.9 $4.5 $5.5 $6.4 $7.4 $8.5 16.7% will be able to effectively deliver just over six trillion kilowatts of Comm. & Wireless Infrastructure $2.5 $3.6 $5.1 $6.9 $9.3 $12.5 38.1% electricity to more than a billion customers and energy intensive factories. Smart T&D Equipment $4.5 $6.5 $9.4 $13.1 $17.1 $21.2 36.4% To meet this challenge, China has outlined major plans and dedicated Other $1.1 $1.3 $1.5 $1.8 $2.0 $2.3 15.5% billions of dollars to research, design and build a nationwide Smart Grid. Total Smart Grid Market Value $17.1 $22.3 $30.1 $39.2 $49.6 $61.4 29.1% Zpryme projects the total value of China‟s Smart Grid market to rise Source: Zpryme from $22.3 billion USD in 2011 to $61.4 billion USD in 2015, an annual growth rate of 29.1 percent over five years. China: Government Initiatives in the Smart Grid Projected China Smart Grid Equipment & Technology Market 2010 - 2015 | in U.S. billions hina‟s current transmission infrastructure is poorly designed and Compound Annual Growth Rate = 29.1% managed. The majority of China‟s energy resources and power $70 generation capacity is concentrated in areas far away from the densely $61.4 $60 populated, energy hungry east coast. To combat deprived power $49.6 distribution and to unify the disparate regional grids, China‟s $50 government intends to construct three major transmission lines, each $39.2 expected to reach 20 GW of transmission capacity by 2020. Known as $40 $30.1 the West-East Electricity Transfer Project, this massive undertaking will $30 provide flexibility and increase system wide generation capacity to $22.3 $17.1 mitigate the electricity shortages that have plagued China in the past. $20 This project features the construction of some of the highest voltage, $10 longest transmission lines in the world, including the world's first 1,000- kilovolt alternating current power line that runs for 640 kilometers $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 between Shanxi and Hubei.3 Source: Zpryme 1 China's leading national newspaper, December 2010 2 www.eia.gov 3 www.reuters.com 1 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org China: Rise of the Smart Grid | January 2011
  • 3. Beyond helping to meet soaring electricity demand, China‟s efforts to where improving electricity grids is initiated on a regional level, China‟s build a nationwide Smart Grid will play an integral role in helping it enormous state-owned transmission companies and streamlined achieve two goals over the next 10 years: regulatory processes facilitate rapid construction without barriers that are characteristic in more developed countries. These factors have made 1. Increasing renewable energy power generation enough to meet China the largest, most important market for Smart Grid development in 15 percent of energy demand by 2020. the world. 2. Reducing the carbon intensity of China‟s economy by 40 to 45 China: Electric Utility Initiatives percent by 2020 from a 2005 baseline. China‟s push to increase renewable generation capacity is predicated on egulations were recently passed that will require Chinese utilities to sending power generated from wind farms, hydroelectric dams, and reduce energy sales volume by 0.3 percent a year through efficiency solar power plants to cities along the east coast. However, gains. China‟s largest transmission company, State Grid Corporation of approximately 30 percent of wind turbines in China are not currently China (SGCC), is the driving force behind China‟s efforts to build a connected to a transmission network; highlighting the limited reach and nationwide Smart Grid. As the world‟s largest transmission company that poor design of China‟s electricity grid (it‟s important to note that covers 88 percent of China and serves over 1 billion customers, SGCC according to a report by AMSC on January 11, 2011 China has now has enormous influence over not only the development of Smart Grid installed more wind power capacity than any other nation).4 Despite infrastructure, design, and management in China but also throughout the completing the first phase of a 10 GW wind farm located near the city world. China‟s other major transmission company; China Southern Power of Jiuquan in November 2010, the wind farm‟s remote location and Grid Company (CSG) has taken a secondary role in developing Smart China‟s poor transmission infrastructure has limited actual grid connected Grid technologies, waiting for SGCC to complete its planning and generation to 1.15 GW out of 5.16 GW of total installed capacity.5 A research phases before developing plans to upgrade its own grid. Smart Grid will not only increase renewable energy capacity but also China's Projected Net Electricity Generation help manage electricity demand in dense urban centers that are 2000 - 2015 | in billion kilowatt hours expected to grow with workers continuing to migrate to eastern cities and improving living standards, thus increasing their thirst for electricity. 7,000 6,270 The advantages of Smart Grid technology will help China meet the government‟s two environmental goals and in turn provide security 6,000 against swings in global energy prices and help to avoid power shortages and overloads. 5,000 4,170 4,000 While developing a reliable, countrywide Smart Grid is an enormous challenge, China‟s size and regulatory system provide inherent 3,000 advantages that will help it achieve its goals. The massive size of China‟s nationwide Smart Grid provides an economy of scale that is unmatched 2,000 anywhere in the world, helping to reduce costs and spark domestic manufacturing of Smart Grid equipment. While utilities in the United 1,000 States are updating infrastructure and trying to upgrade old equipment, China has the advantage of building Smart Grid technology into 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 transmission infrastructure from the outset. Also, unlike the United States Source: U.S. EIA & The China Electricity Council 4 www.atimes.com 5 www.windtech-international.com 2 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org China: Rise of the Smart Grid | January 2011
  • 4. In accordance with the Chinese government‟s plans, SGCC has divided demonstration project at the Shanghai World Expo. Using the the development of a Smart Grid into three phases, planning to invest a experience gained from these projects, SGCC released a set of industry total of $601 billion USD into a nationwide transmission network with rules, standards, and favored technologies for 22 criteria of Smart Grid $101 billion USD of these funds to be dedicated to developing Smart technology in June 2010.8 For both domestic and international Grid technology. manufacturers of Smart Grid equipment, these standards and favored technologies have enormous impact on the products offered by their The first phase, which ended in 2010, focused on planning Smart Grid businesses. The standardization of components for such a massive project construction by outlining technical standards, developing technology and yields an economy of scale that at least initially dwarfs any other source equipment, and implementing pilot projects. The total investment of this of demand for Smart Grid equipment. Chinese manufacturers, who phase was $77.8 billion USD including a $9.2 billion USD investment into already make the bulk of Smart Grid equipment for the world, will shift Smart Grid technology. The second phase will last until 2015 and will their focus to equipment that meets SGCC‟s standardization, making it see the construction of a reliable nationwide transmission grid, including cheaper and more readily available than other Smart Grid equipment. operational Smart Grid management systems, wide spread deployment of smart meters, and enough EV charging stations to accommodate the The Smart Grid will also play a key role in China‟s efforts to build use of EVs. This phase will invest $282.9 billion USD with $45.8 billion infrastructure to support electric vehicles (EVs). In June 2010, SGCC USD of these funds dedicated to Smart Grid technology. The final phase announced plans to fully develop an electric vehicle charging network, will last from 2016 to 2020 and complete China‟s nationwide grid by intending to establish 75 public charging stations, 6,209 AC charging connecting all planned coal, hydroelectric, nuclear and wind power spots, and a handful of battery replacement stations in Shanghai, generation facilities to areas of high demand in a reliable, intelligently Beijing, Tianjin and other cities that will serve as pilot projects.9 This managed transmission network. The last phase will invest $240.5 billion announcement follows a string of projects launched by SGCC aimed at USD into building this transmission grid with $45.8 billion USD of these introducing EVs to China. Since 2006 the SGCC has procured 101 funds dedicated to Smart Grid technology.6 electric vehicles, constructed 30 pilot charging stations and collaborated with Beijing‟s municipal government to design 7 electric bus lines for 58 electric buses.10 In 2008, SGCC built the infrastructure to charge 55 SGCC Strengthened Smart Grid Plan 2010 – 2020 | in U.S. billions electric buses and over 400 electric vehicles to move athletes and staff during Beijing‟s Olympic Games.11 China‟s other large transmission Phase Time Period Total Investment UHV Investment Smart Grid company, CSG, is also facilitating the spread of EVs by establishing Amount Investment charging stations in Shenzhen, Nanning and Guilin. CSG recently signed 1 2009 - 2010 77.8 12.1 9.2 an agreement with BYD Co. to build an energy storage station with 3 2 2011 - 2015 282.9 43.8 45.8 megawatts of capacity in Shenzhen.12 3 2016 - 2020 240.5 36.5 45.8 Total (2009 - 2020) 601.1 92.4 100.8 Source: SGCC Strengthened Smart Grid Plan China: Industry Players Making Moves (released on May 21, 2009) he size of China‟s Smart Grid market has brought attention from During the first phase, SGCC implemented 228 Smart Grid pilot projects infrastructure companies, IT and networking solutions providers, and to solve technical issues, test designs, and develop management systems.7 Smart Grid equipment manufacturers from across the globe. When These projects covered the entire gamut of Smart Grid implementation, asked about the Smart Grid opportunity in China Fulei Yang of Alcatel ranging from connecting wind power plants to automating distribution Lucent expressed to Zpryme, “State Grid Company of China (SGCC) is networks to metering households. The projects were implemented across different regions of China, including a highly publicized Smart Grid 8 www.nist.gov 9 www.sgcc.com.cn 10 www.sgcc.com.cn 6 State Grid Corporation of China 11 www.huliq.com 7 www.nist.gov 12 www.bloomberg.com 3 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org China: Rise of the Smart Grid | January 2011
  • 5. putting huge investment into „Smart Grid‟, specially focusing on solutions to automate distribution and manage electricity demand is the distribution networks -- in an attempt to prevent it from splitting from the best way for foreign firms to capitalize on China‟s booming Smart Grid transmission network. In the meantime, SGCC is building a strong supply industry. Zpryme projects that the software and hardware segment of chain internally, making their own specifications and standards, China‟s Smart Grid market will grow from $4.0 billion USD in 2010 to manufacturing equipment, and integrating them into their own $13.0 billion USD in 2015, an annual growth rate of 26.4 percent. grid. Southern Grid of China (SGC) is acting differently -- wait and see Ignacio Gonzalez, CEO of Telvent told Zpryme, “While China is a top the policy from central government.” consumer of energy, it is also placing immense importance on building a smart grid infrastructure to ensure that energy is procured, managed, With over $600 billion USD expected to be invested into electricity and delivered efficiently. As part of this effort, Telvent is proud to be infrastructure and Smart Grid technology over the next 10 years, firms working with the State Grid through our projects with Shanxi Electric within the Smart Grid space cannot afford to ignore China‟s booming Power Company and the Southern Grid with Guizhou Electric Power. We market. However, China‟s insular business community and favoritism for hope to continue our partnership with China, offering the technology and domestic firms pose major obstacles for companies seeking to profit from solutions it needs to build a smart grid for the 21st century.” Large China‟s Smart Grid investment. In response, foreign companies have industry players such as Telvent have already made inroads in both sought to establish alliances and partnerships with Chinese companies, these market segments and others: leveraging their superior knowledge and experience to gain access to contracts and pilot projects in hopes of expanding business once large- Foreign companies getting involved: scale investment and construction begins.  In January 2011 The State Grid Corp. of China, Chinese Projected China Smart Grid Market by Technology 2010 and 2015 | in U.S. billions Academy of Science and GE are going to collaborate in standardizing Smart Grid technology (from the State-owned Smart T&D Equipment $21.2 Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of China). The $4.5 three parties have signed a memorandum of understanding on strategic cooperation to cover electricity charging and Comm. & Wireless $12.5 discharging technology for EVs, large-capacity storage systems Infrastructure $2.5 and network technology and other related Smart Grid technology. $13.0 Software & Hardware $4.0  In January 2011 Telvent announced that it has expanded its partnership with China South Grid Guizhou Electric Power $8.5 Company. Based on a previous pilot project, Telvent will now Sensors 2015 $3.9 provide its Distribution Management System to Guizhou Power's 2010 entire service territory. $3.9 Smart Meters  In January 2011 SGCC selected Landis+Gyr to supply industrial $1.0 and commercial AMI for deployment in six provinces. The first $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 phase of the project involves the installation of 10,000 meters Source: Zpryme (SGCC has noted that a country-wide deployment is also likely). The largest portion of China‟s market is in Smart Grid T&D, which.  In January 2010, GE partnered with Yangzhou Beichen Electric Zpryme projects will grow from $4.5 billion USD last year (‟10) to $21.2 Equipment Company, a subsidiary of SGCC, to build Smart Grid billion USD by 2015, an annual growth rate of 36.4 percent. Because of equipment and set up a Smart Grid demonstration center in the China‟s limited technological capabilities, providing IT and networking 4 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org China: Rise of the Smart Grid | January 2011
  • 6. Yangzhou New Economy and Development Zone. Over a span of four years, this demonstration center will implement wireless  Cisco has been slower to enter into China‟s market, but has smart meters, residential demand management systems, smart recently restructured its East Asia business to create a Greater thermostats and appliances, automated outage identification and China division that will aim to gain access to China‟s Smart Grid restoration systems, field-force automation, grid network market. management software, and even systems to manage plug-in hybrid cars. In November of 2010, GE announced further  Over the past 4 years, Swiss-Swedish infrastructure giant ABB collaboration with subsidiaries of SGCC. GE and Wuhan Nari has received a number of substantial contracts to supply agreed to work together in improving the efficiency and transistors, power lines, and other transmission equipment to reliability of the electricity grid, and GE and Electric Power of SGCC and CSG. Most recently, ABB won a contract to design, Shanghai agreed to jointly acquire a controlling stake of Tianling supply and install transformers for a substation in the Jilin Switchgear to develop smart power distribution equipment. province in northeastern China. ABB also supplied equipment for  IBM has actively sought to establish partnerships with local China‟s largest EV charging station in Shenzen. municipalities and energy companies to provide technological solutions primarily aimed at intelligent management systems. In  In June 2010, Siemens completed the Yunnan-Guangdong September 2009, IBM partnered with the industrial city of transmission line that is operated by CSG. It is the first HVDC link Shenyang to improve city management systems and to establish in the world. In November 2010, Siemens announced that it a research institute to advance eco-city technology. In November would sign an agreement to build EV charging infrastructure. 2009, IBM partnered with diversified Chinese energy company ENN Group providing a capital investment by IBM into ENN‟s  In August 2010 Duke Energy partnered with China Huaneng energy services business, agreeing to jointly develop “Intelligent Group, China‟s biggest utility, to explore a variety of clean- Energy” solutions, and jointly building industry expertise and skills energy technologies. to serve China‟s booming energy market. In March 2010, IBM established an Energy & Utilities Solutions Lab in Beijing to Chinese domestic companies getting involved: research ways for utility companies to improve energy delivery and optimize performance through network automation and  In January 2011 China Singyes Solar Technologies has improved efficiency. In November 2010, IBM released a new completed and switched on a Smart Grid project that combines grid management technology that will be piloted in collaboration wind, solar and diesel fuel power generation with energy with Shanghai Power to manage power outages more effectively storage on Dong‟ao Island in Zhuhai, Southern China. The project while improving grid efficiency. will boost the share of green energy in the island‟s energy mix to 70 percent from 30 percent.  In 2010 Hewlett-Packard acquired network equipment manufacturer 3Com for $2.7 billion in order to gain a foothold in providing China‟s Smart Grid with networking solutions.  Two Shenzhen-based manufacturers have benefitted most from China‟s push to install smart meters. In 2009, Shenzhen-based  In March 2010, Accenture launched the Accenture Intelligent Clou Electronics won approximately $27 million USD worth of Network Data Enterprise, a platform to help utilities manage, orders from SGCC. Waison Group has won tenders from several integrate and analyze real-time data generated by millions of utilities throughout China and is collaborating with California- disparate sources throughout a utility‟s Smart Grid network. based Cogo Group to expand business. Accenture has formed an alliance with East China Grid Co and is participating in 10 pilot projects in China.  China‟s large state-owned companies have made acquisitions to benefit from the coming Smart Grid boom. SGCC acquired 5 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org China: Rise of the Smart Grid | January 2011
  • 7. electrical-equipment makers Pinggao Electric and XJ Electric in  Private investment (venture capital) will continue to pour into the beginning of 2010. China Aerospace Science & Industry China firms that can serve the electricity infrastructure and Smart Corporation, the country's space and defense manufacturer, Grid market. acquired two-meter makers, Shenzhe Techrise Electronics and Liangli Instrument in August 2009.  China will seek to become the leader across the entire EV value chain. Meaning that EV manufacturers, telematic, EV charging,  In May 2010 Siemens signed an agreement with Wasion Group and EV component companies should set their strategic business to conduct feasibility studies in an effort to launch new Smart dial to China in 2011. Grid pilot projects in the Middle Kingdom.  Chinese domestic firms serving the Smart Grid market will  Since 2009 Huawei Technologies, China‟s foremost network expand their footprint beyond their nation‟s borders as their service provider, has taken steps to enter into the Smart Grid technologies and services will become increasingly competitive solutions market. with their foreign counterparts. China: What to Look for in 2011  The Chinese government totally supports the efforts of domestic and foreign Smart Grid and clean energy manufacturers through n olympic leap forward has been taken by China in the past 12 subsidies, R&D funding, and major lines of credit (domestic). months. Where around the globe and more specifically the U.S. is at a snail‟s crawl injecting grants and loans for Smart Grid programs and  While utilities in the U.S. are updating infrastructure, China has pilots, China is well ahead. The leading Asian economic power has the advantage of building Smart Grid technology into proven to have more government gusto to fuel Smart Grid infrastructure transmission infrastructure from the outset – essentially a clean and development. In the near future the Smart Grid sector coupled with slate. clean energy industries such as solar and wind generation have the power to determine an economy‟s energy consumption fate – well ahead  China‟s state-owned transmission companies and streamlined of the curve China is already in preparation mode by: building strategic regulatory processes facilitate rapid construction without barriers global relationships, aggressively building electric infrastructure, and that are characteristic in more developed nations such as the U.S. more importantly making the Smart Grid initiative a national policy. and U.K. Other insights to consider from the report:  More blue chip global companies such as GE, Siemens and IBM Zpryme Credits and Smart Grid centric companies such as Landis+Gyr and Editor Managing Editor Research Lead Telvent will continue to position themselves to capitalize on the Daniel Jung Robert Langston Sean Sayers China Smart Grid market without significant competition in 2011 (as compared to the U.S.). Such moves will come in the form of Disclaimer joint-ventures, domestic firm partnerships, pilot projects, and full- These materials and the information contained herein are provided by Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC and are intended to provide general blown China operations. information on a particular subject or subjects and is not an exhaustive treatment of such subject(s). Accordingly, the information in these materials is not intended to constitute accounting, tax, legal, investment, consulting or other professional advice or services. The information is not intended to be relied upon as the sole basis for any decision which may affect you or your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that might affect your personal finances or business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. These materials and the information contained  China will become one step closer to clearly establishing itself as herein is provided as is, and Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC makes no express or implied representations or warranties regarding these materials and the information herein. Without limiting the foregoing, Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC does not warrant that the materials or information contained herein will be error-free or will meet any particular criteria of performance or quality. Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC the world leader for Smart Grid technology. expressly disclaims all implied warranties, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, title, fitness for a particular purpose, noninfringement, compatibility, security, and accuracy. Prediction of future events is inherently subject to both known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to vary materially. Your use of these and the information contained herein is at your own risk and you assume full responsibility and risk of loss resulting from the use thereof. Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC will not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages or any other damages whatsoever, whether in an action of contract, statute, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), or otherwise, relating to the use of these materials and the information contained herein. 6 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org China: Rise of the Smart Grid | January 2011
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