This presentation by Monica Di Gregorio, M. Brockhaus, K. Korhonen-Kurki, J. Sehring, T. Cronin, S. Mardiah, L. Santoso, and E. Muharrom during the Forests Asia Summit in the discussion forum "Climate change: Low-emissions development and societal welfare - trade offs, risks and power struggles in forest and climate change policy arenas" focuses on the REDD Global Comparative Study (GCS), key policy challenges and regime types, how progress in REDD+ is actually defined and what conclusions can be drawn.

1. THINKING beyond the canopy
Assessing progress in national
REDD+ policy processes
Monica Di Gregorio, M. Brockhaus, K. Korhonen-Kurki, J. Sehring, T. Cronin,
S. Mardiah, L. Santoso, E.Muharrom (CIFOR and University of Leeds/SRI)
5th May2014– Forest Asia, Jakarta

2. THINKING beyond the canopy
Comparative studies
 Policy context analysis (enabling
conditions)
• Policies supporting and clashing
with REDD+, and autonomy of the
state in 7 countries
 Qualitative comparative analysis
• Assesses factors that have enabled
REDD+ policy progress
• Remote (institutional) and proximate
conditions (policy processes) in 12
countries
 Comparative media analysis
• Investigates the potential of public
discourses to facilitate policy
change in 7 countries
2

3. THINKING beyond the canopy
Key policy challenges and regime types
3
Country
Drivers of
Defor &
Forest
Degradation
Policies Clashing with
REDD+
Policies Supporting
REDD+
Lack of autonomy /
possible capture by
special interests
Democrac
y
category
score
(index )
Level
of
centra
lizatio
n
Indonesia Agriculture (large
scale incl. oil
palm, small scale
& subsistence),
logging, mining
Pulp and paper; Mining
permits in protected
areas; fiscal and non-
fiscal concessions for food
estate/energy estate;
biofuel development; land
allocation for oil palm
plantations
Moratorium on Granting
of New Licenses and
Improvement of Natural
Primary Forest and
Peatland Governance (but
considered a ‘weak’due
to the influence of
business on government)
Medium-High
(pressure from large
scale plantations and
logging, pulp and
paper, mining and
electoral campaigns)
Flawed
democracy
(6.53)
Decent
ralised
with
tension
s
Nepal Agriculture;
illegal logging;
resettlement;
infrastructure;
fire
Agricultural
modernisation;
Infrastructure
development; road
construction; mining; lack
of overarching land use
policy
Subsidies for kerosene,
biogas, micro-hydro, solar
and improved
cooking stoves;
community forestry
programme
Medium-high
(illegal logging and
smuggling to India
and Tibet (China);
encroachment
of forestlands;
corrupt politicians,
and bureaucrats)
Hybrid
regimes
(4.24)
Decent
ralised
Vietnam Agriculture;
infrastructure;
logging;
fire; shifting
cultivation;
migration
Infrastructure; food and
cash crop development
(self-sufficiency);
National Socio-Economic
Development Plan;
credit schemes to
alleviate poverty; land
allocation; economic
development as main
goal of Forest
Development Strategy
Payments for forest
environmental services &
benefit-sharing regulation
(weak implementation);
Law on Forest Protection
and Development 2004;
Land Law 2003: legal
foundation for carbon
rights; National Climate
Change Strategy
Medium-high
(especially at
the local level
and in relation
to state-owned
companies and land
administration)
Authoritari
an
(2.96)
Central
ised

4. THINKING beyond the canopy
QCA: How is progress in REDD+ defined?
The phased approach
(Meridian 2009, UNFCCC)
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Activities National REDD
strategy
development
including inter alia:
• Institutional
strengthening
• Demonstration
activities
National REDD
strategy
implementation,
including inter alia;
• Land tenure
reforms
• Forest law
enforcement
• PES
Consolidation of
REDD strategy
implementation,
including inter alia:
• Improved forest
management
• Supply chain
modernization
4
Progress = Establishment of comprehensive policies targeting
transformational change in the REDD+ policy domain (phase II)
 Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam

5. THINKING beyond the canopy
Analysis: Two-step QCA
Six factors divided into two categories to explain outcome
 Institutional setting:
• Pressure on forest resources
• Effective forest policy and governance
• Pre-existing CC/ reduction of deforestation policies
 Policy process:
• National ownership
• Transformational coalitions
• Inclusiveness of the policy process
5

6. THINKING beyond the canopy
Remote conditions
6
Pre-existing forestry and CC reforms
are a prerequisite for progress REDD+
but only in the presence of either
• high pressure on forest resources
(Brazil and Indonesia)
or
• key features of effective forest
legislation, policy and governance
(Vietnam)

7. THINKING beyond the canopy
Proximate conditions
7

8. THINKING beyond the canopy
Proximate conditions
8
Where an enabling institutional
setting is in place, two proximate
conditions proofed to be crucial for
all three successful countries
(Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia):
• National ownership
• Transformational coalitions

9. THINKING beyond the canopy
Comparative media: Results
Dominant public discourse: simplistic win-win scenarios (state &
international actors)
 Avoids debates around drivers of deforestation (legal and
illegal logging and conversion of forest to plantation agriculture or
other land uses)
 Recognizes the need for institutional and governance reforms
Transformational change discourse: domestic environmental
justice NGOs/CSOs:
 Recognizes trade-offs between REDD+ & economic development,
resource access and livelihoods
 Questions power structures supporting drivers of deforestation
and degradation (indirectly)
9

10. THINKING beyond the canopy
Conclusions
Achieving emission reductions through REDD+ requires specific
conditions:
 Relative autonomy of nation states from key interests that drive
deforestation and forest degradation
 Pre-existing policy reforms (forestry and CC) + pressure of
forests or effective forest legislation, policy and governance in place
 National ownership over REDD+ policy processes
 Transformational change coalitions:
• Need to include key state and business actors to break up
institutional/political barriers
10

11. THINKING beyond the canopy
Where do we go from here?
 Keep the major drivers of deforestation high on the agenda –
no action without awareness
• Facilitate REDD+ progress through policy integration and
sectoral reforms (forestry, agriculture, economic development –
low carbon economy)
• Engage actors from sectors driving deforestation and forest
degradation in REDD+ policy debates (private sector)
 Ensure equity and safeguards are in place:
• Bring together state and non-state actors around debates on
tenure, benefit-sharing and multiple benefits debates
(consider possible trade-offs)
11

12. THINKING beyond the canopy
Further readings:
Di Gregorio, M., Brockhaus, M., Cronin, T., & Muharrom, E. 2012. Politics and power in
national REDD+ policy processes. In A. Angelsen, M. Brockhaus, W. D. Sunderlin & L. V.
Verchot (Eds.), Analysing REDD+: Challenges and choices (pp. 69–90). Bogor, Indonesia:
Centre for International Forestry Research.
Korhonen-Kurki, K., Sehring, J., Brockhaus, M., Di Gregorio, M. 2014. Enabling factors for
establishing REDD+ in a context of weak governance. Climate Policy, 14(2): 167-186.
Brockhaus, M., Di Gregorio, M., & Mardiah, S. Governing the design of national REDD+:
An analysis of the power of agency. Forest Policy and Economics(0). doi:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2013.07.003
Di Gregorio, M., Brockhaus, M., Cronin, T., Muharrom, E., Mardiah, S., Santoso, L.
Deadlock or transformational change? Exploring public discourse on REDD+ across seven
countries (submitted Global Environmental Politics)
Di Gregorio, M., Brockhaus, M., Cronin, T., Muharrom, E., Santoso, L., Mardiah, S. and
Büdenbender,, M. 2013. Equity and REDD+ in the Media: A Comparative Analysis of
Policy Discourses. Ecology and Society, 18:2. DOI: 10.5751/ES-05694-18023
 www.cifor.cgiar.org

13. THINKING beyond the canopy
Acknowledgements
This work is part of the policy component of CIFOR’s global comparative study on REDD (GCS). The methods and guidelines
used in this research component were designed by Maria Brockhaus, Monica Di Gregorio and Sheila Wertz-Kanounnikoff.
Parts of the methodology are adapted from the research protocol for media and network analysis designed by COMPON
(‘Comparing Climate Change Policy Networks’).
Case leaders: Thuy Thu Pham (Nepal), Thuy Thu Pham & Moira Moeliono (Vietnam), Thuy Thu Pham and Guillaume
Lestrelin (Laos), Daju Resosudarmo & Moira Moeliono (Indonesia), Andrea Babon (PNG), Peter Cronkleton, Kaisa Korhonen-
Kurki, Pablo Pacheco (Bolivia), Mary Menton (Peru), Sven Wunder & Peter May (Brazil), Samuel Assembe & Jolien Schure
(Cameroon), Samuel Assembe (DRC), Salla Rantala (Tanzania), Sheila Wertz-Kanounnikoff (Mozambique), Suwadu Sakho-
Jimbira & Houria Djoudi (Burkina Faso), Arild Angelsen (Norway). Special thanks to our national partners from REDES, CEDLA
Libelula and DAR, REPOA, UEM, CODELT, ICEL, ForestAction, CIEM, CERDA, Son La FD, UPNG, NRI-PNG, and UMB.
Thanks to contributors to case studies, analysis and review : Levania Santoso, Tim Cronin, Giorgio Indrarto, Prayekti
Murharjanti, Josi Khatarina, Irvan Pulungan, Feby Ivalerina, Justitia Rahman, Muhar Nala Prana, Caleb Gallemore (Indonesia)
Nguyen Thi Hien, Nguyen Huu Tho, Vu Thi Hien, Bui Thi Minh Nguyet, Nguyen Tuan Viet and Huynh Thu Ba (Vietnam), Dil
Badhur, Rahul Karki, Bryan Bushley, Naya Paudel (Nepal), Daniel McIntyre, Gae Gowae, Nidatha Martin, Nalau Bingeding,
Ronald Sofe, Abel Simon (PNG), Walter Arteaga, Bernado Peredo, Jesinka Pastor (Bolivia), Maria Fernanda Gebara, Brent
Millikan, Bruno Calixto, Shaozeng Zhang (Brazil), Hugo Piu, Javier Perla, Daniela Freundt, Eduardo Burga Barrantes, Talía
Postigo Takahashi (Peru), Guy Patrice Dkamela, Felicien Kengoum (Cameroon), Felicien Kabamba, Augustin Mpoyi, Angelique
Mbelu (DRC), Demetrius Kweka, Therese Dokken, Rehema Tukai, George Jambiya, Riziki Shemdoe, (Tanzania), Almeida Sitoe,
Alda Salomão (Mozambique), Mathurin Zida, Michael Balinga (Burkina Faso), Laila Borge (Norway).
Special thanks to Efrian Muharrom, Sofi Mardiah, Christine Wairata, Ria Widjaja-Adhi, Cecilia Luttrell, Frances Seymour, Lou
Verchot, Markku Kanninen, Elena Petkova, Arild Angelsen, Jan Boerner, Anne Larson, Martin Herold, Rachel Carmenta,
Juniarta Tjajadi, Cynthia Maharani

14. Thanks to