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Proposed fire and haze research
How do emissions take place?

Heterotrophic
soil respiration

Net peat
decomposition
loss

Fire
CH4 & N2O

CO2 ,CH4, CO

CO2 & CH4

Litterfall
Root mortality
Soluble & physical
removal (DIC, DOC &
POC)
back
Goal of the research
Contribute to reductions in fires, greenhouse gas
emissions, and trans-boundary haze by better
understanding the drivers of fires (who? why? and how?)
and the governance conditions that mediate them, the
climate feedbacks, and the impacts of haze on the global
climate, and on human health.
Rationale
Important gaps remain despite previous research
on fires, greenhouse gas emissions and transboundary haze in SEA:
 Drivers and impacts fires and haze have been
poorly assessed during wet (non-El Ninõ) years
 Drivers of fires and the governance conditions
mediating them change over time

 The temporal sequence of: “forest conversion
to agriculture”, involving fire is not fully
understood and is important for accurate GhG
accounting
 Estimated GHG and aerosols emissions from
fires in SEA peatlands have high uncertainties,
therefore their impacts in global climate and
human health are not well determined
Overall Output
 A protocol in place to monitor: (i) climatic and socioeconomic drivers of fires and haze; (ii) effectiveness of
social and institutional arrangements; (iii) burned areas; (iv)
impacts on the global climate and human health in rural and
urban areas.
 Forecast fire season severity in advance (early warning
system developed)

 More accurate estimates of GHG and aerosols emissions and
impacts on human health from land fires and haze
 Contribute
to
implement
through
multi-stakeholder
dialogues
Options
on
more
effective
institutional
arrangements at multiple levels of governance for reducing
land fires and haze.
Socio-economic
drivers
•Land tenure
•Conflict
•Finance and capital
•Migration policy
•Expanding OP market
•Poverty
•Demographic (population
density & migration)

•Drought/rainfall
•El Niño occurrence
•Indian Ocean Dipole
•Wind speed/direction
•Peat lands
•Degraded lands
•Peat soil draining

Monitoring Outputs:
Spatio-temporal
variations of
drivers mapped
comprehensively
at finer scales

Mediating
factors

Governance &
institutional
arrangement

Impacts

Fire/Haze

Mortality rate
Others?

Health

Climate

•Early warning
system
•More accurate
GHG emissions
estimation

Multiple drivers
Law enforcement
Social negotiations
Local/national politics
Incentives
Conservation
interventions
REDD+

•Protocol to
monitor drivers

Effectiveness and
shortcomings of
institutional
arrangements

•More accurate
estimate human
health impacts

•Better
understanding of
Burnt areas&smoke
patterns of drivers
plumes landscapes
dynamics mapped. and causality
Haze composition &
emissions rate known •Science supports

Temperature
Others?

Impacts on
temperature &
human health
(rural and urban)

evidence based
interventions

Fewer fire/haze

Underlying drivers

Climatic, Soil, Landcover
Drivers
Component 1: impacts on climate

&

health

 What conditions cause fires to produce haze (water
content, peat quality, land cover, burn frequency,
etc.) and what controls these conditions?
 How do drainage and burning affect greenhouse gas
emissions?
 What are the atmospheric transport mechanisms
that determine the haze trajectory
 How does haze affect rural health near in the region
of burning
 How does haze affect health in down-wind cities
Component 2:
Socioeconomic drivers
We want to understand the importance of
drivers:
• Market demand for agricultural
commodities (e.g. oil palm,
pulpwood)
• Energy demand and potential
contribution of crop feedstocks and
biomass
• Financing & capital investment
• Credit for SMEs
• Demography (availability of labor)
• Migration
• Poverty
• Land tenure / Conflict
Component 2: socio-economic drivers
 How are drivers are linked to fire ?
 What other proximate and distal drivers are
relevant?
 How have the drivers of fire changed over time
(e.g., since the 1997 haze incident)?
Component 3: Governance
arrangements (policy levers)
 Designation of strategic sectors for
medium development planning (RPJM)
(e.g., oil palm, timber/pulp estates)
 Legal frameworks for land allocation
(e.g., APL, HPK, HP)
 Conservation incentives systems (e.g.,
REDD+, moratorium)

 Law enforcement/incentives for
compliance efforts
 Policies/incentives for using degraded
lands productively

 Coordination among different institutions
and administrative levels
Component 3: Governance arrangements
 In what ways might these governance
arrangements/policy levers be linked to fire/haze, if at
all?
 What are the barriers/gaps that limit the effectiveness
of these government arrangements?
 What types of arrangements/policy options might be
most effective in the Indonesian context?
Proposed fire and haze research

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Proposed fire and haze research

  • 1. Proposed fire and haze research
  • 2. How do emissions take place? Heterotrophic soil respiration Net peat decomposition loss Fire CH4 & N2O CO2 ,CH4, CO CO2 & CH4 Litterfall Root mortality Soluble & physical removal (DIC, DOC & POC)
  • 4. Goal of the research Contribute to reductions in fires, greenhouse gas emissions, and trans-boundary haze by better understanding the drivers of fires (who? why? and how?) and the governance conditions that mediate them, the climate feedbacks, and the impacts of haze on the global climate, and on human health.
  • 5. Rationale Important gaps remain despite previous research on fires, greenhouse gas emissions and transboundary haze in SEA:  Drivers and impacts fires and haze have been poorly assessed during wet (non-El Ninõ) years  Drivers of fires and the governance conditions mediating them change over time  The temporal sequence of: “forest conversion to agriculture”, involving fire is not fully understood and is important for accurate GhG accounting  Estimated GHG and aerosols emissions from fires in SEA peatlands have high uncertainties, therefore their impacts in global climate and human health are not well determined
  • 6. Overall Output  A protocol in place to monitor: (i) climatic and socioeconomic drivers of fires and haze; (ii) effectiveness of social and institutional arrangements; (iii) burned areas; (iv) impacts on the global climate and human health in rural and urban areas.  Forecast fire season severity in advance (early warning system developed)  More accurate estimates of GHG and aerosols emissions and impacts on human health from land fires and haze  Contribute to implement through multi-stakeholder dialogues Options on more effective institutional arrangements at multiple levels of governance for reducing land fires and haze.
  • 7. Socio-economic drivers •Land tenure •Conflict •Finance and capital •Migration policy •Expanding OP market •Poverty •Demographic (population density & migration) •Drought/rainfall •El Niño occurrence •Indian Ocean Dipole •Wind speed/direction •Peat lands •Degraded lands •Peat soil draining Monitoring Outputs: Spatio-temporal variations of drivers mapped comprehensively at finer scales Mediating factors Governance & institutional arrangement Impacts Fire/Haze Mortality rate Others? Health Climate •Early warning system •More accurate GHG emissions estimation Multiple drivers Law enforcement Social negotiations Local/national politics Incentives Conservation interventions REDD+ •Protocol to monitor drivers Effectiveness and shortcomings of institutional arrangements •More accurate estimate human health impacts •Better understanding of Burnt areas&smoke patterns of drivers plumes landscapes dynamics mapped. and causality Haze composition & emissions rate known •Science supports Temperature Others? Impacts on temperature & human health (rural and urban) evidence based interventions Fewer fire/haze Underlying drivers Climatic, Soil, Landcover Drivers
  • 8. Component 1: impacts on climate & health  What conditions cause fires to produce haze (water content, peat quality, land cover, burn frequency, etc.) and what controls these conditions?  How do drainage and burning affect greenhouse gas emissions?  What are the atmospheric transport mechanisms that determine the haze trajectory  How does haze affect rural health near in the region of burning  How does haze affect health in down-wind cities
  • 9. Component 2: Socioeconomic drivers We want to understand the importance of drivers: • Market demand for agricultural commodities (e.g. oil palm, pulpwood) • Energy demand and potential contribution of crop feedstocks and biomass • Financing & capital investment • Credit for SMEs • Demography (availability of labor) • Migration • Poverty • Land tenure / Conflict
  • 10. Component 2: socio-economic drivers  How are drivers are linked to fire ?  What other proximate and distal drivers are relevant?  How have the drivers of fire changed over time (e.g., since the 1997 haze incident)?
  • 11. Component 3: Governance arrangements (policy levers)  Designation of strategic sectors for medium development planning (RPJM) (e.g., oil palm, timber/pulp estates)  Legal frameworks for land allocation (e.g., APL, HPK, HP)  Conservation incentives systems (e.g., REDD+, moratorium)  Law enforcement/incentives for compliance efforts  Policies/incentives for using degraded lands productively  Coordination among different institutions and administrative levels
  • 12. Component 3: Governance arrangements  In what ways might these governance arrangements/policy levers be linked to fire/haze, if at all?  What are the barriers/gaps that limit the effectiveness of these government arrangements?  What types of arrangements/policy options might be most effective in the Indonesian context?

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Definitions:Haze:Haze often occurs when dust and smoke particles accumulate in relatively dry air. When weather conditions block the dispersal of smoke and other pollutants they concentrate and form a usually low-hanging shroud that impairs visibility and may become a respiratory health threat.
  2. More than 40 projects (total investment USD 38 million from 1983-1999) have investigated the causes and impacts of fires in Indonesia during drier-than-usual El-Ninố years (e.g. 1982/83 1997/98).This slide has indentified gaps in the research
  3. Logical framework
  4. These drivers are also in the logical framework.