Enrico Bertuzzo covered instead the new topic of water borne diseases and their spreading along rivers. The way Enrico and coworkers analysed the problem, certainly inherited many notions and ideas sprout the early studies on river networks structure by Andrea (I had a part in it), but also on recent and domain specific achievements and findings. In the presentation he cited just one paper, but the research outcomes on the topic are certainly copious and exciting.
Measures of Dispersion and Variability: Range, QD, AD and SD
Spreading of diseases along river networks
1. Rivers, rainfall and cholera.
A new challenge for hydrologists
Enrico Bertuzzo, Senior Scientist, ECHO lab, EPFL
Interdisciplinary Workshop
on Frontiers in Hydrology and Hydrogeoscience
3. • Mortality rate less than 1% if properly treated
• Recovery time of about 5 days
• Immunity is acquired after infection; not permanent, lasts a few years (1–5?)
6. S susceptible
I infected
R recovered
B bacteria concentration in the
environment
Pij hydrologic transport network
Continuous Compartmental
Spatially Explicit Epidemic Model
7. Continuous Compartmental
Spatially Explicit Epidemic Model
S susceptible
I infected
R recovered
B bacteria concentration in the
environment
Pij hydrologic transport network
Qij human mobility transport
network
8. Continuous Compartmental
Spatially Explicit Epidemic Model
S susceptible
I infected
R recovered
B bacteria concentration in the
environment
Pij hydrologic transport network
Qij human mobility transport
network
10. Haiti cholera epidemic. First case on October 2010
As of April 15 2014:
00’000 reported cases (7% of the population)
’552 deaths (1.2% of the total cases)
21. unstable disease
free equilibrium
perturbation (I>0)
epidemic outbreak
10 R stable disease
free equilibrium
perturbation (I>0)
epidemic fades out
Basic reproduction number: number of secondary cases produced by a single
case over the course of the infectious period
10 R
Stability conditions
spatially implicit model