This document discusses challenges and opportunities for reconciling food production, forest conservation, and landscape restoration in Ethiopia. It notes that agricultural expansion has been the primary driver of deforestation and biodiversity loss in Ethiopia, with 70% of new agricultural land coming at the expense of forests between 2001-2012. While Ethiopia has ambitious plans to increase food production and restore forests by 2030, there are tensions between these targets and historical trends of rapid deforestation. Key challenges include sectoral divisions in government, disconnects between scales of land use planning, and short-term incentives that prioritize agricultural conversion over forest protection. Overcoming these political economic barriers will be vital for Ethiopia to achieve sustainable land use and development.

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October, 2016
Phil Franks
IIED
Reconciling food production, forest
conservation and landscape restoration
in Ethiopia: challenges & opportunities

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Changes in cereal production due to changes in yield
and area 1980-2013

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Ethiopia
Population (2015) - 99.4 m, 19% urban
GDP growth (2003/4-13/14) 10.8% per year
Forest/woodlands (2016) 17.4 m ha (15.5%)
Small-holder farming (2015) 14.3 m ha (12.8%)
Large scale farming (2015) 0.98 m ha (0.9%)
Small-holder farm size 60% farms <1ha

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Forest map

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Biodiversity map

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Agricultural expansion
• Number 1 driver of deforestation and biodiversity loss
• Expansion of cropland: 5.0 m ha in the period 2001-12
• 70% of new agricultural land came from conversion of forest
and woodlands: 3.5 m ha in the period 2001-12

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Changes in cereal production due to changes in yield
and area 1980-2013

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Future scenarios: 2015-2030
 Growth the Transformation Plan II (2015-2020)
 Increase major crop production by 50%
 increase cereal crops productivity by 47%
 Increase forest area by 5m from 15.5% to 20%
 Food demand: 49% increase by 2030, 125-150% by 2050
 New York Declaration of Forests: halve rate
of deforestation by 2020, end deforestation by 2030
 National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan: by 2020
sustainable use of ecosystems outside protected areas

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What’s the problem?
 Tensions………..disconnects
• Between targets of different policies/strategies
• Between future policy and historical trends
 Risky……......killer assumptions regarding
performance of key interventions, eg
• closing “yield gaps”
• Implementing land use plans
 Trade-offs (and synergies) not recognised
and effectively and equitably managed

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Why this situation exists/persists
• Sectoral siloes
o Forest/biodiversity under a new (junior) ministry split off from Ministry of Agriculture
o Pastoralist issues covered by a separate ministry
o Lack of awareness of/interest in the bigger picture
• Scale disconnects
o Bottom up land use planning does not take into account national goals, eg re water, carbon
o Little/no capacity in environment/forestry in regional and local governments
• Narratives
o Forest land is vacant?
o Large-scale commercial agriculture is more productive?
• Incentives
o Short time horizons of politicians (-> high discounting of forest ecosystem services benefits)
o High salaries of NGOs and international agencies causing high turnover of government staff
o Conversion of forest to farm helps to secure individual land tenure
• Vested interests
o Strong donor influence, e.g. prioritising mitigation target of REDD+ vs development
o Domestic investors in agriculture can conceal the scale of their farming enterprise

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Concluding remarks
• Despite ambitious plans for sustainable intensification
rapid deforestation will continue – which areas to
keep and which to lose?
• Land use planning vital but how to align global-
national-local priorities, what incentives to
implement plans and what social impacts?
• Challenges lie mainly in the realm of political
economy – incentives, ideas, institutions
• How to create political space for the necessary
forward looking dialogue and what process?