Shenggen Fan Director General IFPRI Dakar | May 15, 2013

1. 1
LOREM IPSUM DOLOREM
Shenggen Fan
Director General
Dakar | May 15, 2013

2. This presentation
1. 2012 Global Food Policy Report
2. Challenges and opportunities for
economic transformation in Africa

3. The global food system remained fragile
 New numbers,
same problem
 Drought and
volatile food prices
United States, Eastern Europe,
Central Asia, Southern Africa,
Sahel
 Conflict
DRC, Mali, Somalia, Syria
 Long-term drivers of
global food system
Old and new FAO estimates of undernourished people worldwide,
1990-2010

4. 2012
Major Food Policy Developments
 G8 launched New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition in Africa
 G20 agreed to boost agricultural productivity
 Committee for World Food Security endorsed voluntary guidelines
for land tenure
 Rio+20 Declaration offered a strong vision with little direction on
achieving food security in a green economy
 Several events were held at the UN General Assembly e.g.
 New Alliance: Progress and the Way Forward
 Launch of Nutrition Barometer
 Scaling Up Nutrition
 UN Doha climate change negotiations showed stymied progress

5. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
A Changing Global Harvest
 Agricultural productivity growth has accelerated substantially
 Location and composition of production have changed
(more in developing countries; more high-value crops)
 Sources of production growth and regional contributions
are different (sustained high growth in Brazil and China; low growth in Africa)
For long-term productivity growth
 Develop national capacities
in agricultural R&D
 Provide better genetic materials
and inputs
 Create enabling environment
for rapid technology adoption
Sources of growth in global agricultural production

6. GREEN ECONOMY
Sustainable and Growing, Food Secure?
 Rio+20 conference introduced several new initiatives
(e.g. Green Economy, Zero Hunger Challenge, Zero Net Land and Forest Degradation)
 Bioeconomy also gained ground
 Rio+20 lacked firm policy roadmap and timeframe
What is needed?
 Clear measures, timeframes,
and accountability mechanisms
 Incentives and information for
civil society and private sector
Rio+20: Towards a “green economy”

7. WOMEN IN AGRICULTURE
Closing the Gender Gap
 Role of gender equality in agriculture gained growing attention
(FAO’s State of Food and Agriculture and World Bank’s World Development Report)
 Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index was created
(IFPRI, USAID, and Oxford Poverty and Human Development)
 Development programming moving
from gender-blind to gender-aware programs
More needs to be done to
 Build evidence base
 Strengthen women’s assets
 Engage with women’s groups
as real development partners

8. EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE
Jobs for Africa’s Youth
 Africa south of the Sahara has the fastest growing population
and the youngest (additional 150 million people in rural areas from 2010-50)
 Engagement of Africa’s youth in agriculture is crucial
to gain “youth dividend”
To realize agriculture’s potential
 Constraints to land, capital,
and skills must be eased
 Programs must be friendly
to needs of the youth
 Clear vision and political
commitment is needed
Rural population share and number of people entering rural
and urban labor markets in Africa south of the Sahara, 1950–2050

9. US AND EU FARM POLICIES
The Subsidy Habit
 Farm subsidies in the US and EU persist, the debate continues
 Not much was done to expand productivity-increasing public
agricultural research
What must be done?
 Revisit farm policies
 Promote non-distorting
trade policies
 Engage in WTO
trade negotiations
Composition of EU agricultural budget, annual expenditures, 1990-2010

10. Difference in population at risk of hunger (%), compared with baseline, 2050
LOOKING AHEAD
Scenarios for the Future of Food
0
5
10
15
20
E. Asia &
Pacific
Europe &
C. Asia
LAC MENA S. Asia SSA World
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
E. Asia &
Pacific
Europe &
C. Asia
LAC MENA S. Asia SSA World
HIGHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER ENERGY PRICES
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
S. Asia S.E. Asia Asia SSA LAC World
Lower meat demand in high-income countries
Lower meat demand in high-income countries + Brazil and China
LOWER MEAT DEMAND

11. Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators1
2
3
4
FOOD POLICY INDICATORS
Tracking Change
5
Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development
Global Hunger Index
Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators
Total and Partial Factor Productivity

12. This presentation
1. 2012 Global Food Policy Report
2. Opportunities and challenges for
economic transformation in Africa

13. Rapid economic growth
Real GDP per capita, SSA Foreign direct investment net inflows, SSA
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Zambia
Angola
Tanzania
Malawi
Lesotho
Nigeria
Mozambique
Rwanda
Ethiopia
Ghana
Average annual real GDP/capita growth, SSA, 2008-2012 (%)
-2
0
2
4
6
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Percent
2005US$
Real GDP/capita
Annual real GDP/capita growth (right)
0
15
30
45
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Billions(currentUS$)
Source: ERS, USDA 2012 Source: World Bank 2013
Large opportunities also from
• Agriculture
• Natural resources
• Urbanization…
Source: ERS, USDA 2012

14. Accelerating agricultural growth
Average annual agricultural growth, SSA
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
2000-2002 2003-2005 2006-2008 2009-2011
Percent
Value of agriculture and food exports, developing Africa
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Billions(US$)
Agric raw materials
Food
Source: UNCTAD 2013Source: World Bank 2013
Increased agricultural spending
• 26 countries have signed investment plans under CAADP
New initiatives for agricultural transformation e.g.
• Agricultural Transformation Agency in Ethiopia; Agricultural transformation agenda in
Nigeria

15. BUT, poverty and undernutrition remain high
Source: Ravallion (2013)
Number and prevalence of poverty, SSA
Number and prevalence of undernourishment in SSA
Source: FAOSTAT 2013
Prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies, Africa
Vitamin A-deficiency
• Over 30% of preschool age
children
Anemia
• 60% of pregnant women
Source: HarvestPlus 2011
0
20
40
60
80
0
200
400
600
800
1990 1999 2008 2015
Percent
Millions
Number of poor
Poverty rate (right)
0
10
20
30
40
0
100
200
300
1990-92 1998-00 2006-08 2010-12
Percent
Millions
Number of undernourished
Prevalence (right)

16. For economic transformation to
benefit the poor and hungry in Africa
 Focus on smallholder farmers
 Link growth to nutrition and health
 Build resilience against shocks

17. Focus on smallholder farms
Farm size (ha)
% of all farms
Africa
<2 80
2-10 15
10-100 3
>100 0
They can
• Use land more efficiently
• Produce cheaper and more
nutritious foods
• Increase own incomes and
productivity
• Promote equity, hunger, and
poverty reductionSource: Calculations based on most recent data available from FAO
Agricultural World Census from late 1980s-2000s
Expand agric. R&D and rural infrastructure investments
plus access to agric. inputs, services, and markets

18. Link growth to nutrition and health
Growth strategies should be designed with a
nutrition and health lens e.g.
 Promoting productivity growth of more nutritious foods
 Increasing demand for and access to nutritious foods along
entire value chain
 Mitigating nutrition and health risks associated with
agriculture e.g. zoonotic diseases
 Breeding more nutritious varieties of staple food crops
consumed by poor people
Source: Fan and Brzeska 2012

19. Build resilience against shocks
Scale up better targeted and more productive
social safety nets
 Explore cross-sectoral approaches to reach poor more
effectively e.g. Ethiopia Productive Safety Net Program
Improve data and information to better predict
and respond to shocks e.g. early warning systems
Promote access to risk management mechanisms
e.g. weather index-based insurance
Support livelihood diversification

20. OUTLOOK FOR 2013
Walk the Talk!
 Build resilience of global and national food systems and the poor
 Give attention to dry areas
 Further advance the nexus approach
(agriculture, nutrition, health & food, water, land, energy)
 Fulfill L’Aquila commitments, build national capacities,
and support implementation of country-led processes
 Ensure post-2015 development agenda focuses on poor people
while pursuing sustainable development goals
We can end hunger sustainably by 2025