Open house ENSA & ISFAR to IFPRI Ligane Sene

1. IFPRI Open House
ENSA-ISFAR
IFPRI Standard model
A 1-minute explanation
Ligane Massamba J. Sene
31-03-2014

2. Introduction
• CGE : Policy issues
• Equations describing model variables
• Often used in developing countries such as those based on
the IFPRI template model
• IFPRI standard model features

3. Activities
Factor
markets
Households
Commodity
markets
Rest of world
Government Sav. / Invest.
Returns Domestic private savings
Taxes
Costs
Transfers
Private cons. Gov. cons.
Invest.
demand
ExportsImports
Sales
Foreign savingsForeign transfers
Intermed.
demand
Typical model structure
Activities
Factor
markets
Commodity
markets
Households
Rest of world
Household surveys
National accounts
Supply/use table
Labor force surveys
Trade data
B.o.P.
Social Accounting
Matrix (SAM)
+ =
Data requirements

4. Marketed commodity

5. Application : Food price shocks
& CAADP in Senegal
• Key features of Senegal Economy
• Agriculture, the main economic activity in rural areas (60% of
the population live in rural areas)
• Erratic agricultural growth and national GDP growth rate
around 3.5% that is below the government target of 7% as
specified in the SCA.
• Poverty rate of 46% in 2011
• Knowledge gap to fill for optimal agricultural policies (food
prices hikes & poor agriculture performance)
• Data requirement (Agricultural SAM for Senegal, ESPS II)

6. Agricultural commodities
and sectors in the model

7. Food prices : Simulation
designs

8. Food price shocks: Poverty
impacts

9. CAADP impacts in Senegal
• The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development
Programme (CAADP) : as part of NEPAD in July 2003 and focus
on improving and promoting agriculture across Africa.
• Allocation of 10 per cent of national budget to agriculture
• An agricultural growth target of 6 per cent
• The programme focuses on four key areas to improve
productivity and growth. Land and water
management, Market access, Food supply and hunger and
Agricultural Research

10. Targeted yields: rice 6.68, millet/sorghum 1.05 , maïze 1.5 , peanut 1.2
CAADP impacts in Senegal

11. CAADP impacts in Senegal

12. Conclusion
• Policy option in response to food price hikes should be
targeted to optimize the impact on poverty reduction
• The simulated low magnitude change in transaction
costs, generally due to remoteness and infrastructure
quality, have impact on poverty especially in rural area albeit
marginally.
• Infrastructure for market access
• Additional effort for more poverty reduction

13. Thank you for your
attention