Renewable Energies in the MENA Region: Potential for Sustainable Energy Provision and Export to Europe. by Hans Müller-Steinhagen and Franz Trieb Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center(DLR).

1. MED-CSP TRANS-CSP AQUA-CSP
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region:
Potential for Sustainable Energy Provision and
Export to Europe
Hans Müller-Steinhagen and Franz Trieb
Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR)
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

2. Project Partners
German Aerospace Center (Germany)
National Energy Research Center (Jordan)
University of Aden, (Yemen)
University of Sana’a, (Yemen)
University of Bahrain, (Bahrain)
Prof. Dr. Abdelaziz Bennouna, formerly at CNR (Morocco)
IFEED
Intern. Forschungszentrum für Erneuerbare Energien e.V. (Germany)
Kernenergien – The Solar Power Company (Germany)
Nokraschy Engineering GmbH (Germany)
Deutsche Gesellschaft Club of Rome (Germany)
House of Water and Environment (Palestine)
Center for Solar Energy Studies (Libya)
Centre de Developpement des Energies Renouvelables (Morocco)
University of Bremen (Germany)
New Energy Algeria (Algeria)
New and Renewable Energy Authority (Egypt)
Hamburg Institute of International Economics (Germany)
Honorat Satoguina
MASDAR (Abu Dhabi)
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

3. 50 countries analysed within the MED-CSP and TRANS-CSP Studies
Scandinavia
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
South-Eastern Europe
Western Asia
North Africa
Arabian Peninsula
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

4. Parameters considered in the analyses
! Annual electricity demand
! Annual load curve
! Available fossile and renewable resources
! Existing power plants in 2000 and their expected lifetime
! Cost of fossil fuels (oriented at IEA Scenario)
! Maximum production growth rates of RE industries
! Existing grid infrastructure
! 100% power availability
! Peaking power demand and 25 % reserve capacity
! Sustainability criteria
! Opportunities of financing
! Policies and energy economic boundary conditions
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

5. Gross electricity demand in the analysed MENA countries
4500
Turkey
Historical Data Scenario Closing the
Gap / High Efficiency Spain
4000 Portugal
Malta
Second Slowdown: Italy
3500
Demand Stabilisation Greece
Gross Electricity Consumption TWh/a
Tunisia
3000 Morocco
Libya
Egypt
2500
Algeria
First Slowdown: Yemen
2000 Efficiency Gains UAE
& Liberalisation Syria
Saudi Arabia
1500
Qatar
Oman
1000 Lebanon
Kuwait
Jordan
500
Israel
Iraq
0 Iran
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Cyprus
Year Bahrain
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

6. Gross electricity demand in the analysed European countries Switzerland
Norway
4500
Historical Data Scenario TRANS-CSP Iceland
Bosnia-Herzegowina
4000 Serbia & Montenegro
Romania
Macedonia
3500 Bulgaria
Gross Electricity Consumption TWh/y
Turkey
Sweden
3000 Croatia
Finland
Greece
2500 Hungary
Slowenia
Slowac Republic
2000
Czech Republic
Poland
1500 Italy
Ireland
United Kingdom
1000 Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
500 Luxembourg
Belgium
Austria
0 France
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Portugal
Year Spain
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

7. Electricity production of power plants already existing in 2000 and
deficit to be covered by new plants until 2050, in the European
countries analysed within TRANS-CSP
4500
4000
Electricity Production in TWh/y
3500
3000
2500 Deficit
2000 Old Plants
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

8. Renewable energy resources in Europe and MENA
Biomass (1)
In brackets: (max. yield in GWhel / km! /y)
Geothermal (1)
Wind (50)
Hydropower (50)
A solar power plant of the
size of Lake Nasser
equals the total Middle
East oil production
Solar (250)
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

9. Area Required to Provide the Electricity Demand of the World, EU-25 and Germany
WORLD
EU-25 GER
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

10. SEGS 350 MW, California Planta Solar 10 MW, Seville
Solar Thermal
Power Plants
Novatec MAN/SPG
Lorca Almeria
Nevada Solar I, 64 MW Andasol 2 x 50 MW, Guadix
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

11. Solar Electricity Cost of Concentrating Solar Power Plants
45 900
40 800
Solar Electricity Cost [ct/kWh]
Installed Capacity [GW]
35 700
30 600
25 500
20 400
15 300
10 200
5 100
0 0
2000
2015
2020
2035
2005
2010
2025
2030
1980
2040
1985
1990
1995
2045
2050
Year
SEGS Cost CSP Cost Spain CSP Cost Egypt Worldwide Installed CSP Capacity
Source: EU-IP NEEDS (New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

12. Economic renewable electricity potentials vs. demand in Europe and MENA
> 630000
16000
14000 Solar
Electricity in TWh/y
Geothermal
12000
Hydro
10000
8000
? Wind
Biomass
6000 Wave/Tide
Desalination
4000
MENA
2000 Europe
0
Potentials Demand 2000 Demand 2050
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

13. Options for solar electricity transfer over 3000 km distance
Solar Power Hydrogen AC / HVAC HVDC Line
Transfer by:
Losses 75 % 45 % / 25 % 10 %
Cost very high high low
Adaptation to has to be directly has to be
Consumers transformed to transformable transformed to
(Transformer) AC first AC first
Over Sea by tankers or not over 30 km standard
Transport pipelines solution
Visibility Impact very low high low
Materials and moderate moderate low
Emissions
Preferred eventually fuel regional and long distance
Application for transport local power power transfer
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

14. Concept of a EU-MENA Renewable Energy Link
Using HVDC Power Transmission Technology
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

15. Analysed Examples for EU-MENA HVDC Interconnection
3 x 5 GW x 7000 h/y = 105 TWh/y
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

16. Scenario for total EU-MENA HVDC interconnection 2020 – 2050 *
Year 2020 2030 2040 2050
Capacity GW 2x5 8x5 14 x 5 20 x 5
Transfer TWh/y 60 230 470 700
Capacity Factor 0.60 0.67 0.75 0.80
Land Area CSP 15 x 15 30 x 30 40 x 40 50 x 50
km x km HVDC 3100 x 0.1 3600 x 0.4 3600 x 0.7 3600 x 1.0
Investment CSP 42 134 245 350
Billion " HVDC 5 16 31 45
* All countries analysed in TRANS-CSP
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

17. Expected Water Deficits by Country
160 Bahrain
Yemen
140
Freshwater Deficit [billion m!/y]
UAE
Saudi Arabia
120 Qatar
Kuwait
100
Oman
Iran
80
Iraq
60 Syria
Lebanon
40 Jordan
Israel
20 Palestine
Egypt
0 Libya
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Tunisia
Algeria
Year
Morocco
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

18. Concentrating Solar Thermal Power for Seawater Desalination (Options)
Heat Only Power Only Combined Heat & Power
Solar Field Storage Solar Field Storage Solar Field Storage
solar solar
heat fuel heat fuel
solar grid
heat Power Power
Plant Plant
fuel
heat
MED
RO MED
Water Power Water Power Water Power
MED: Multi-Effect-Distillation; RO: Reverse Osmosis Membrane Desalination
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

19. Projected cost of water (CoW) from reverse osmosis plants
using conventionally generated power or solar electricity
1.2
1.0
Cost of Water ["/m!]
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
CoW Solar CoW Fossil CoW Mix
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

20. Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants combined
with Sea Water Desalination in Coastal Desert Areas
Energy
+
Water
+
Income
=
Sustainable
economic
development in
AC Grid arid regions
HVDC Link
(artist view created with
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Google Earth) Hans Müller-Steinhagen

21. Electricity and fresh water provision in MENA
4000
3500
Power Demand and
3000
Supply [TWh/y]
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
20 00
20 5
20
0
20 0
0
1
20 5
1
20 0
2
Year
20 5
2
30
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
20
Old Plants MENA CSP Export CSP Desalination CSP MENA
New Plants MENA Total Demand Energies in the MENA Region
Renewable MENA Total Demand EU Hans Müller-Steinhagen

22. Conclusions
! Within 15 years, a well balanced electricity mix may lead to less expensive
electricity than business as usual. Domestic sources reduce the import of
fuels.
! Solar electricity from concentrating solar power stations in MENA can
provide firm capacity for base load, intermediate and peaking power.
! The most efficient and economic way to transfer electricity from MENA to
Europe is via high voltage direct current transmission lines, adding about
1.5-2 cents/kWh to the local generating cost.
! By 2050, 700 TWh/y solar electricity could be imported from 20 locations in
MENA at a cost of 5 c/kWh, providing about 15 % of European electricity
demand.
! To establish and maintain such a trans-national HVDC electricity grid,
strong political support will be required.
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen

23. for more information look at
www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp
www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp
www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp
Renewable Energies in the MENA Region Hans Müller-Steinhagen