SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  34
Sales Budgets




                1
Sales Budget
• Why a Sales Budget?




                          2
Benefits of Budgeting

a) Improved Planning:
         Action to be taken is described in
   quantitative terms.




                                   3
Benefits of Budgeting

a) Improved Planning:
   Action to be taken is described in quantitative terms.
b) Better coordination & communication:
    All departments have budgets which give future course of
   action – interaction between departments.
   Eg. Increased Sales     Increased Production
        Increased Finance       Increased MIS /
        HR




                                             4
Benefits of Budgeting

c) Control & performance evaluation Control &
   performance evaluation:
      Budgets outline objectives and responsibilities so
   performance evaluation and control is easy. Eg.
   Expense monitoring,
d) Psychological benefits:
    Instills profit orientation / expense control / culture
   in organization




                                             5
Types of Budgets

a) Sales Budget




                   6
Types of Budgets

a) Sales Budget
    Detailed Plan showing the Expected Sales for a
     Future Period ….
    Developed based on expected revenue (S-
     forecast)
    Gives sales by geographically location / product
     service / sales people & customers
    First part of Master Budget; Usually forms the
     basis for other operational budgets like finance &
     production.
                                         7
Types of Budgets

b) Selling – Expense Budget
    Salaries / Commissions
    Traveling / Entertainment
    Training (new products)




                                 8
Types of Budgets

b) Selling – Expense Budget
    Salaries / Commissions
    Traveling / Entertainment
    Training (new products)
c) Administrative Budget & Profit Budget, Rent,
    Electricity, Office Furniture, Stationery
    GP = sales revenue – sales expenses




                                   9
Methods of Budgeting for Sales Force

a) Affordability Method:
      Management develops SB depending on
   ability to spend on sales function;
           usually fall short of sales dept’s
   requirements
b) Percentage of Sales Method:
   Multiply sales revenue by a given %;
     Sales revenue = Past revenue / forecasted
   figure / weighted average of both
c) Competitive Parity:
    Based on budgeted figure of competitors or
   industry average; competitor comparable in
   size and revenue is chosen
                                       10
Types of Budgets

d) Objective & Task:
       a), b), c) do not take cognizance of
   organization’s objective in developing
   budget.
    Identify objective with employees
    Identify tasks for achieving objective
    Expenditure required
    Form budget
e) Return Oriented Method:
        ROI, ROA, ROTA, ROAM (Assets
   Management)

                                    11
Successful Budgeting




                   12
Successful Budgeting
•   Involvement & Support of Top Management
             Support Budgeting & ensure all-round
    participation; should not be viewed as a pressure
    tactic but as an effective tool for performance;
ii. Flexibility in Budgeting
             Should be adjustable to fast changing
    environmental conditions




                                       13
How to develop a Sales Budget




                                14
How to develop a Sales Budget

1. Review and Analysis
      Collection of past data and study of variances
   between projected and actual
2. Identifying market opportunity and problems
3. Sales forecasting
4. Communication of Sales goals & objectives
    Involvement of sales people is essential for mutual
   agreement


                                         15
How to develop a Sales Budget

5.   Allocation of resources
     Selecting salespeople, tools of sales, financial
     resources
6.   Preparing the budget
       Balance between sales force capability and
     market opportunities
7.   Approval for the budget




                                           16
Sales Forecasts




                  17
• Market Potential Vs Sales Potential




                                 18
Sales Forecasts

1. Market Potential: Maximum possible
   sales opportunities in part. mkt. segment,
   over a future period, assuring application of
   appropriate marketing methods.
2. Sales Potential: maximum possible sales
   opportunity for specific company in part.
   Mkt. segment over future period.
   MP : Total Industry
   SP : Part. Co.



                                        19
Sales Forecasts

3.   Sales Forecast: In Re/Units, how much of
     a company’s product can be sold over a
     future period, under a given marketing
     program on assumed set of external factors.




                                        20
Market Potential Analysis

i. Market identification
ii. Ability to buy
iii. Willingness to buy
Sources of Data:
a) Secondary: Environment Analysis
b) Primary: Customers spending patterns,
     preferences




                                  21
Why is SP different from SF?




                               22
Why is SP different from SF?

i.     Inadequate Production Capacity
ii.    Inadequate Distribution
iii.   Inadequate Finances
iv.    Profit Orientation: Profitable Sales vs. Possible
       Sales




                                           23
Analyzing Market Potential

i.    Top down: Top mgmt. assesses market on
      basis of macro environmental data
ii.   Bottom up: Micro enviro. factors of market
      like customer, products, ability to buy etc.
      are analyzed by lower management




                                          24
Sales Forecasting Method

i.    Qualitative Forecasts
     a) Judgment Methods
     b) Counting Methods




                              25
Judgment Methods

1.   Delphi Technique: Systematic Method for
     obtaining consensus from a group of
     experts.
2.   Nominal Group Technique: Experts from
     diverse backgrounds
3.   Jury of Executive Opinion: Opinions of
     executives at top level, based on
     experience & utilization – Lacks scientific
     validity senior most opinion prevails.



                                        26
Counting Methods

1.   User Expectations: Usually for industrial
     products by directly getting data from
     customers.
2.   Sales Force Composite: Estimate of
     expected sales from every salesperson; can
     over/under    estimate,    lack    broader
     perspective.
3.   Market Tests: Limited area consumer
     acceptance.



                                        27
Quantitative Forecasts

1.   Time Series Analysis: Estimation of future
     trends based on past performance; Long
     Term Forecasts
          Sales = T (long term variations × C
     (cyclical variations) × S (Seasonal
     changes) × I (Irregular changes in
     environment)




                                        28
Quantitative Forecasts

    2.   Moving Average: Sales forecasts on sales
         of previous period: assumes environmental
         irregularities in past will be there in
         present.


               (Sales t +Sales t −1 +Sales t −2 ....... +Sales t −n
Sales t +1 =
                                      n




                                                      29
Quantitative Forecasts

3.   Exponential Smoothing Refines (2) – More
     weightage to sales in recent periods vis-à-
     vis older periods.




                                        30
Quantitative Forecasts

4. Regression & Correlation (Multiple Regression)
   Correlation: Degree of relationship between sales &
   other variables.

Regression: Identify factor that influence sales & predicts
   changes in one variable due to changes in other.

 Most popular & widely used method
 Identifies relationship between sales and other
  independent factors on which sales is dependant.



                                               31
Which method to use?

a) Accuracy:
   Quantitative better than qualitative,
   short term: exponential method is accurate;
          more than six months: exponential
   smoothing and moving averages
   more than one year: regression
b) Costs
c) Data availability
d) Software      availability:   models    and
   applications for forecasting need different
   types of data
e) Companies experience in forecasting
                                       32
Forecasting is effective if it is:




                            33
Forecasting is effective if it is:

a)   Accurate
b)   Cost effective
c)   Comprehensible
d)   Timely
e)   Flexible
f)   Plausible: Has to be done with sincerity hence
     no manipulation of figures under pressure can be
     allowed; Top Management has to be willing to
     face accurate estimates even if they are not rosy.
g)   Durable: By using quantitative techniques,
     combining forecasting techniques; using
     software.


                                         34

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Developing Marketing Strategies and Plans / Marketing Management By Kotler K...
Developing Marketing Strategies and Plans / Marketing Management By Kotler K...Developing Marketing Strategies and Plans / Marketing Management By Kotler K...
Developing Marketing Strategies and Plans / Marketing Management By Kotler K...Choudhry Asad
 
sales forecasting[1]
sales forecasting[1]sales forecasting[1]
sales forecasting[1]anushree5
 
Theory of personal selling
Theory of personal sellingTheory of personal selling
Theory of personal sellingAkshay Sonar
 
Recruiting and selecting the sales force
Recruiting and selecting the sales forceRecruiting and selecting the sales force
Recruiting and selecting the sales forceSana Hassan Afridi
 
Sales forecasting
Sales forecastingSales forecasting
Sales forecastingWish Mrt'xa
 
Relationship between Strategy and structure of an organization
Relationship between Strategy and structure of an organizationRelationship between Strategy and structure of an organization
Relationship between Strategy and structure of an organizationUnitedworld School Of Business
 
Sales organization structure
Sales organization structureSales organization structure
Sales organization structureVivek Gautam
 
Distribution Channel/Marketing Channels by Amitabh Mishra
Distribution Channel/Marketing Channels by Amitabh MishraDistribution Channel/Marketing Channels by Amitabh Mishra
Distribution Channel/Marketing Channels by Amitabh MishraDr. Amitabh Mishra
 
Sales Forecasting Techniques
Sales Forecasting TechniquesSales Forecasting Techniques
Sales Forecasting TechniquesOjas Maheshwari
 
Marketing strategy meaning & significance, formulation of
Marketing strategy  meaning & significance, formulation ofMarketing strategy  meaning & significance, formulation of
Marketing strategy meaning & significance, formulation ofChandan Singh
 
Evaluation and control of marketing effort
Evaluation and control of marketing effortEvaluation and control of marketing effort
Evaluation and control of marketing effortzailunnito
 
Marketing channels
Marketing channelsMarketing channels
Marketing channelsMohitsh2
 
INDUSTRIAL MARKETING
INDUSTRIAL MARKETINGINDUSTRIAL MARKETING
INDUSTRIAL MARKETINGPeter vinosh
 

Tendances (20)

Developing Marketing Strategies and Plans / Marketing Management By Kotler K...
Developing Marketing Strategies and Plans / Marketing Management By Kotler K...Developing Marketing Strategies and Plans / Marketing Management By Kotler K...
Developing Marketing Strategies and Plans / Marketing Management By Kotler K...
 
Ge matrix
Ge matrixGe matrix
Ge matrix
 
sales forecasting[1]
sales forecasting[1]sales forecasting[1]
sales forecasting[1]
 
Industrial buying decision process
Industrial buying decision processIndustrial buying decision process
Industrial buying decision process
 
Theory of personal selling
Theory of personal sellingTheory of personal selling
Theory of personal selling
 
Recruiting and selecting the sales force
Recruiting and selecting the sales forceRecruiting and selecting the sales force
Recruiting and selecting the sales force
 
Sales forecasting
Sales forecastingSales forecasting
Sales forecasting
 
Product mix
Product mixProduct mix
Product mix
 
Relationship between Strategy and structure of an organization
Relationship between Strategy and structure of an organizationRelationship between Strategy and structure of an organization
Relationship between Strategy and structure of an organization
 
Sales organization structure
Sales organization structureSales organization structure
Sales organization structure
 
Distribution Channel/Marketing Channels by Amitabh Mishra
Distribution Channel/Marketing Channels by Amitabh MishraDistribution Channel/Marketing Channels by Amitabh Mishra
Distribution Channel/Marketing Channels by Amitabh Mishra
 
Channel design
Channel designChannel design
Channel design
 
Sales Forecasting Techniques
Sales Forecasting TechniquesSales Forecasting Techniques
Sales Forecasting Techniques
 
Sales budget
Sales budgetSales budget
Sales budget
 
Marketing strategy meaning & significance, formulation of
Marketing strategy  meaning & significance, formulation ofMarketing strategy  meaning & significance, formulation of
Marketing strategy meaning & significance, formulation of
 
Evaluation and control of marketing effort
Evaluation and control of marketing effortEvaluation and control of marketing effort
Evaluation and control of marketing effort
 
Salesperson selection and training
Salesperson selection and trainingSalesperson selection and training
Salesperson selection and training
 
Marketing channels
Marketing channelsMarketing channels
Marketing channels
 
Physical Distribution
Physical DistributionPhysical Distribution
Physical Distribution
 
INDUSTRIAL MARKETING
INDUSTRIAL MARKETINGINDUSTRIAL MARKETING
INDUSTRIAL MARKETING
 

Similaire à How to Develop an Effective Sales Budget in 40 Characters

Similaire à How to Develop an Effective Sales Budget in 40 Characters (20)

Avis bu
Avis buAvis bu
Avis bu
 
Unit 3.pptx
Unit 3.pptxUnit 3.pptx
Unit 3.pptx
 
ppt-of-sales-and-distribution-2.pptx
ppt-of-sales-and-distribution-2.pptxppt-of-sales-and-distribution-2.pptx
ppt-of-sales-and-distribution-2.pptx
 
Sdm 2.0
Sdm 2.0Sdm 2.0
Sdm 2.0
 
Forecasting and budgeting
Forecasting and budgetingForecasting and budgeting
Forecasting and budgeting
 
Forecasting and budgeting
Forecasting and budgetingForecasting and budgeting
Forecasting and budgeting
 
Sales, Distribution & Logistic Management - Goals in Sales Management
Sales, Distribution & Logistic Management - Goals in Sales ManagementSales, Distribution & Logistic Management - Goals in Sales Management
Sales, Distribution & Logistic Management - Goals in Sales Management
 
Strategic management
Strategic managementStrategic management
Strategic management
 
Sales budget ,forcasting and control
Sales budget ,forcasting and controlSales budget ,forcasting and control
Sales budget ,forcasting and control
 
Demand Forecasting Me
Demand Forecasting MeDemand Forecasting Me
Demand Forecasting Me
 
demand forecasting
demand forecastingdemand forecasting
demand forecasting
 
Demand+forecasting me
Demand+forecasting meDemand+forecasting me
Demand+forecasting me
 
mktg-summative-test-4th-quarter (1).docx
mktg-summative-test-4th-quarter (1).docxmktg-summative-test-4th-quarter (1).docx
mktg-summative-test-4th-quarter (1).docx
 
Presentation marketing strategy and media planning
Presentation   marketing strategy and media planningPresentation   marketing strategy and media planning
Presentation marketing strategy and media planning
 
OLD SPICE
OLD SPICEOLD SPICE
OLD SPICE
 
Sales management
Sales managementSales management
Sales management
 
SALES FORECASTING METHOD
SALES FORECASTING METHODSALES FORECASTING METHOD
SALES FORECASTING METHOD
 
Sales Management Planning
Sales Management PlanningSales Management Planning
Sales Management Planning
 
Sales budget
Sales budgetSales budget
Sales budget
 
Sales quotas
Sales quotasSales quotas
Sales quotas
 

Plus de Avinash Singh

Jaipur-Tourism.8650968.powerpoint (1).pptx
Jaipur-Tourism.8650968.powerpoint (1).pptxJaipur-Tourism.8650968.powerpoint (1).pptx
Jaipur-Tourism.8650968.powerpoint (1).pptxAvinash Singh
 
MEASURING OUTCOMES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING MARKET PERFORMANCE
 MEASURING OUTCOMES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING MARKET PERFORMANCE MEASURING OUTCOMES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING MARKET PERFORMANCE
MEASURING OUTCOMES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING MARKET PERFORMANCEAvinash Singh
 
DESIGNING AND IMPLEMENTING BRANDING STRATEGIES
DESIGNING AND IMPLEMENTING BRANDING STRATEGIESDESIGNING AND IMPLEMENTING BRANDING STRATEGIES
DESIGNING AND IMPLEMENTING BRANDING STRATEGIESAvinash Singh
 
MEASURING SOURCES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING CUSTOMER MINDSET
MEASURING SOURCES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING CUSTOMER MINDSETMEASURING SOURCES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING CUSTOMER MINDSET
MEASURING SOURCES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING CUSTOMER MINDSETAvinash Singh
 
DEVELOPING A BRAND EQUITY MEASUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
 DEVELOPING A BRAND EQUITY MEASUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM DEVELOPING A BRAND EQUITY MEASUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
DEVELOPING A BRAND EQUITY MEASUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEMAvinash Singh
 
LEVERAGING SECONDARY BRAND KNOWLEDGE TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
LEVERAGING SECONDARY BRAND KNOWLEDGE TO BUILD BRAND EQUITYLEVERAGING SECONDARY BRAND KNOWLEDGE TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
LEVERAGING SECONDARY BRAND KNOWLEDGE TO BUILD BRAND EQUITYAvinash Singh
 
DESIGNING MARKETING PROGRAMS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
 DESIGNING MARKETING PROGRAMS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY DESIGNING MARKETING PROGRAMS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
DESIGNING MARKETING PROGRAMS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITYAvinash Singh
 
CHOOSING BRAND ELEMENTS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
CHOOSING BRAND ELEMENTS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITYCHOOSING BRAND ELEMENTS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
CHOOSING BRAND ELEMENTS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITYAvinash Singh
 
BRAND POSITIONING & VALUES
 BRAND POSITIONING & VALUES BRAND POSITIONING & VALUES
BRAND POSITIONING & VALUESAvinash Singh
 
Sales & cost analysis
Sales & cost analysisSales & cost analysis
Sales & cost analysisAvinash Singh
 
Recruitment, training, compensation
Recruitment, training, compensationRecruitment, training, compensation
Recruitment, training, compensationAvinash Singh
 
Motivating and leading the sales force
Motivating and leading the sales forceMotivating and leading the sales force
Motivating and leading the sales forceAvinash Singh
 
Summer internship reoprt on hcl
Summer internship reoprt on hcl Summer internship reoprt on hcl
Summer internship reoprt on hcl Avinash Singh
 

Plus de Avinash Singh (18)

Jaipur-Tourism.8650968.powerpoint (1).pptx
Jaipur-Tourism.8650968.powerpoint (1).pptxJaipur-Tourism.8650968.powerpoint (1).pptx
Jaipur-Tourism.8650968.powerpoint (1).pptx
 
MEASURING OUTCOMES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING MARKET PERFORMANCE
 MEASURING OUTCOMES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING MARKET PERFORMANCE MEASURING OUTCOMES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING MARKET PERFORMANCE
MEASURING OUTCOMES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING MARKET PERFORMANCE
 
DESIGNING AND IMPLEMENTING BRANDING STRATEGIES
DESIGNING AND IMPLEMENTING BRANDING STRATEGIESDESIGNING AND IMPLEMENTING BRANDING STRATEGIES
DESIGNING AND IMPLEMENTING BRANDING STRATEGIES
 
MEASURING SOURCES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING CUSTOMER MINDSET
MEASURING SOURCES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING CUSTOMER MINDSETMEASURING SOURCES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING CUSTOMER MINDSET
MEASURING SOURCES OF BRAND EQUITY: CAPURING CUSTOMER MINDSET
 
DEVELOPING A BRAND EQUITY MEASUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
 DEVELOPING A BRAND EQUITY MEASUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM DEVELOPING A BRAND EQUITY MEASUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
DEVELOPING A BRAND EQUITY MEASUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
 
LEVERAGING SECONDARY BRAND KNOWLEDGE TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
LEVERAGING SECONDARY BRAND KNOWLEDGE TO BUILD BRAND EQUITYLEVERAGING SECONDARY BRAND KNOWLEDGE TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
LEVERAGING SECONDARY BRAND KNOWLEDGE TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
 
DESIGNING MARKETING PROGRAMS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
 DESIGNING MARKETING PROGRAMS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY DESIGNING MARKETING PROGRAMS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
DESIGNING MARKETING PROGRAMS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
 
CHOOSING BRAND ELEMENTS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
CHOOSING BRAND ELEMENTS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITYCHOOSING BRAND ELEMENTS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
CHOOSING BRAND ELEMENTS TO BUILD BRAND EQUITY
 
BRAND POSITIONING & VALUES
 BRAND POSITIONING & VALUES BRAND POSITIONING & VALUES
BRAND POSITIONING & VALUES
 
business ethics
business ethicsbusiness ethics
business ethics
 
Sales & cost analysis
Sales & cost analysisSales & cost analysis
Sales & cost analysis
 
Recruitment, training, compensation
Recruitment, training, compensationRecruitment, training, compensation
Recruitment, training, compensation
 
Motivating and leading the sales force
Motivating and leading the sales forceMotivating and leading the sales force
Motivating and leading the sales force
 
Sales territories
Sales territoriesSales territories
Sales territories
 
brand managament
brand managamentbrand managament
brand managament
 
brand managament
brand managamentbrand managament
brand managament
 
brand managament
brand managamentbrand managament
brand managament
 
Summer internship reoprt on hcl
Summer internship reoprt on hcl Summer internship reoprt on hcl
Summer internship reoprt on hcl
 

How to Develop an Effective Sales Budget in 40 Characters

  • 2. Sales Budget • Why a Sales Budget? 2
  • 3. Benefits of Budgeting a) Improved Planning: Action to be taken is described in quantitative terms. 3
  • 4. Benefits of Budgeting a) Improved Planning: Action to be taken is described in quantitative terms. b) Better coordination & communication: All departments have budgets which give future course of action – interaction between departments. Eg. Increased Sales Increased Production Increased Finance Increased MIS / HR 4
  • 5. Benefits of Budgeting c) Control & performance evaluation Control & performance evaluation: Budgets outline objectives and responsibilities so performance evaluation and control is easy. Eg. Expense monitoring, d) Psychological benefits: Instills profit orientation / expense control / culture in organization 5
  • 6. Types of Budgets a) Sales Budget 6
  • 7. Types of Budgets a) Sales Budget  Detailed Plan showing the Expected Sales for a Future Period ….  Developed based on expected revenue (S- forecast)  Gives sales by geographically location / product service / sales people & customers  First part of Master Budget; Usually forms the basis for other operational budgets like finance & production. 7
  • 8. Types of Budgets b) Selling – Expense Budget  Salaries / Commissions  Traveling / Entertainment  Training (new products) 8
  • 9. Types of Budgets b) Selling – Expense Budget  Salaries / Commissions  Traveling / Entertainment  Training (new products) c) Administrative Budget & Profit Budget, Rent, Electricity, Office Furniture, Stationery GP = sales revenue – sales expenses 9
  • 10. Methods of Budgeting for Sales Force a) Affordability Method: Management develops SB depending on ability to spend on sales function; usually fall short of sales dept’s requirements b) Percentage of Sales Method: Multiply sales revenue by a given %; Sales revenue = Past revenue / forecasted figure / weighted average of both c) Competitive Parity: Based on budgeted figure of competitors or industry average; competitor comparable in size and revenue is chosen 10
  • 11. Types of Budgets d) Objective & Task: a), b), c) do not take cognizance of organization’s objective in developing budget.  Identify objective with employees  Identify tasks for achieving objective  Expenditure required  Form budget e) Return Oriented Method: ROI, ROA, ROTA, ROAM (Assets Management) 11
  • 13. Successful Budgeting • Involvement & Support of Top Management Support Budgeting & ensure all-round participation; should not be viewed as a pressure tactic but as an effective tool for performance; ii. Flexibility in Budgeting Should be adjustable to fast changing environmental conditions 13
  • 14. How to develop a Sales Budget 14
  • 15. How to develop a Sales Budget 1. Review and Analysis Collection of past data and study of variances between projected and actual 2. Identifying market opportunity and problems 3. Sales forecasting 4. Communication of Sales goals & objectives Involvement of sales people is essential for mutual agreement 15
  • 16. How to develop a Sales Budget 5. Allocation of resources Selecting salespeople, tools of sales, financial resources 6. Preparing the budget Balance between sales force capability and market opportunities 7. Approval for the budget 16
  • 18. • Market Potential Vs Sales Potential 18
  • 19. Sales Forecasts 1. Market Potential: Maximum possible sales opportunities in part. mkt. segment, over a future period, assuring application of appropriate marketing methods. 2. Sales Potential: maximum possible sales opportunity for specific company in part. Mkt. segment over future period. MP : Total Industry SP : Part. Co. 19
  • 20. Sales Forecasts 3. Sales Forecast: In Re/Units, how much of a company’s product can be sold over a future period, under a given marketing program on assumed set of external factors. 20
  • 21. Market Potential Analysis i. Market identification ii. Ability to buy iii. Willingness to buy Sources of Data: a) Secondary: Environment Analysis b) Primary: Customers spending patterns, preferences 21
  • 22. Why is SP different from SF? 22
  • 23. Why is SP different from SF? i. Inadequate Production Capacity ii. Inadequate Distribution iii. Inadequate Finances iv. Profit Orientation: Profitable Sales vs. Possible Sales 23
  • 24. Analyzing Market Potential i. Top down: Top mgmt. assesses market on basis of macro environmental data ii. Bottom up: Micro enviro. factors of market like customer, products, ability to buy etc. are analyzed by lower management 24
  • 25. Sales Forecasting Method i. Qualitative Forecasts a) Judgment Methods b) Counting Methods 25
  • 26. Judgment Methods 1. Delphi Technique: Systematic Method for obtaining consensus from a group of experts. 2. Nominal Group Technique: Experts from diverse backgrounds 3. Jury of Executive Opinion: Opinions of executives at top level, based on experience & utilization – Lacks scientific validity senior most opinion prevails. 26
  • 27. Counting Methods 1. User Expectations: Usually for industrial products by directly getting data from customers. 2. Sales Force Composite: Estimate of expected sales from every salesperson; can over/under estimate, lack broader perspective. 3. Market Tests: Limited area consumer acceptance. 27
  • 28. Quantitative Forecasts 1. Time Series Analysis: Estimation of future trends based on past performance; Long Term Forecasts Sales = T (long term variations × C (cyclical variations) × S (Seasonal changes) × I (Irregular changes in environment) 28
  • 29. Quantitative Forecasts 2. Moving Average: Sales forecasts on sales of previous period: assumes environmental irregularities in past will be there in present. (Sales t +Sales t −1 +Sales t −2 ....... +Sales t −n Sales t +1 = n 29
  • 30. Quantitative Forecasts 3. Exponential Smoothing Refines (2) – More weightage to sales in recent periods vis-à- vis older periods. 30
  • 31. Quantitative Forecasts 4. Regression & Correlation (Multiple Regression) Correlation: Degree of relationship between sales & other variables. Regression: Identify factor that influence sales & predicts changes in one variable due to changes in other.  Most popular & widely used method  Identifies relationship between sales and other independent factors on which sales is dependant. 31
  • 32. Which method to use? a) Accuracy: Quantitative better than qualitative, short term: exponential method is accurate; more than six months: exponential smoothing and moving averages more than one year: regression b) Costs c) Data availability d) Software availability: models and applications for forecasting need different types of data e) Companies experience in forecasting 32
  • 33. Forecasting is effective if it is: 33
  • 34. Forecasting is effective if it is: a) Accurate b) Cost effective c) Comprehensible d) Timely e) Flexible f) Plausible: Has to be done with sincerity hence no manipulation of figures under pressure can be allowed; Top Management has to be willing to face accurate estimates even if they are not rosy. g) Durable: By using quantitative techniques, combining forecasting techniques; using software. 34