Presentation materials for a futures workshop at the EDUCAUSE 2016 conference.

1. AssessingAssessing
EmergingEmerging
Technology andTechnology and
Futures CapacityFutures Capacity
for Yourfor Your
OrganizationOrganization
EDUCAUSE
2016

2. Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop
1. Introductions
2. Delphi method
3. Environmental scanning
4. Trend analysis
5. Scenarios
6. Implementation in your organization

4. Historical sketchHistorical sketch
1. Cold War: RAND and Shell
2. Growth of
futures/futurology
3. Business, government

5. 2. Delphi method
• Assemble experts
• Structured queries
• Reiterated assessments

7. Horizon ReportsHorizon Reports
Higher EducationHigher Education
K-12 EducationK-12 Education
MuseumsMuseums
LibrariesLibraries
European Union (K-12)European Union (K-12)
Latin America (Higher Ed)Latin America (Higher Ed)
Regional/Sector Technology OutlooksRegional/Sector Technology Outlooks
Australia / New Zealand / BrazilAustralia / New Zealand / Brazil
Ireland / UK / Norway / Singapore / AsiaIreland / UK / Norway / Singapore / Asia
China / Scandinavia / Int’l SchoolsChina / Scandinavia / Int’l Schools
Training / eLearning / STEM / Community CollegesTraining / eLearning / STEM / Community Colleges
www.nmc.org/horizon-project

8. 55 Editions55 Editions
75+ Translations75+ Translations
14 Years of Global Research into Emerging Technology Uptake14 Years of Global Research into Emerging Technology Uptake
The NMC Horizon Project

11. HORIZON.WIKI.NMC.ORG

13. POLICYPOLICY
LEADERSHIPLEADERSHIP
PRACTICEPRACTICE

14. LONG-TERM IMPACT
MID-TERM IMPACT
SHORT-TERM IMPACT
> Advancing Cultures of Innovation
> Rethinking How Institutions Work
> Redesigning Learning Spaces
> Shift to Deeper Learning Approaches
> Growing Focus On Measuring Learning
> Increasing Use of Blended Learning Designs
[KEYTRENDS]

15. Solvable vs. Difficult/Wicked
Challenges

16. SOLVABLE
DIFFICULT
WICKED
> Blending Formal + Informal Learning
> Improving Digital Literacy
> Competing Models of Education
> Personalizing Learning
> Balancing Our Connected +
Unconnected Lives
> Keeping Education Relevant
[SIGNIFICANTCHALLENGES]

17. NEAR-TERM: 1 YR OR LESS
MID-TERM: 2-3 YRS
FAR-TERM: 4-5 YRS
> Bring Your Own Device (BYOD)
> Learning Analytics + Adaptive Learning
> Augmented + Virtual Reality
> Makerspaces
> Affective Computing
> Robotics
[DEVELOPMENTSINTECH]

18. On campus
• Can you use Horizon and
others?
• Can you build your own?

19. Horizon prompts exercise
1.Which developments in technology are
most likely to have the largest impact on
education over the next five years?
2.What are the most significant challenges
facing education and technology?
3.Which significant trends will have the
greatest influence on how education and

20. 3. Environmental scanning
•Present-oriented,
seeking seeds of future
•Multiple, diverse sources
•“So what?” Analysis

21. ACRL
sample
http://tinyurl.com/ACRLscan

22. STEEP framework
Social
Technological
Economical
Educational
Political

23. Key questions to start on
• What are your sources?
• How do you share what you
discover?
• How does reflection shape
your planning?

24. EXERCISE
1. Identify 2 stories from past 3
months
2. 1 personal, 1 professional
3. Note source

25. 4. Trend analysis
Once you have discerned
possible future-suggestive
stories, what do you do with
them?

26. 4. Trend analysis
• What do they signal about a
possible future?
• What trends do they indicate?
• How do they connect with your
thinking?
• How do they intersect?

27. EXERCISE
Back to environmental scan.
Break out trends.

28. 5. Scenarios
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamais_cascio/3991366442/

29. AdvantagesAdvantages
1. Narratives compel
2. Creativity for everyone
3. Role playing
4. Can be very low cost

30. CostsCosts
1. Time consuming
2. Can be costly
3. May seem too touchy-feely, too
speculative

31. How to use?How to use?
1. Role playing
2. Simpler: how does your life
change?
3. Group or individual/small
group creation

32. Sample scenariosSample scenarios
1. Peak Higher
Education
2. Health Care Nation
3. Tutor me, Siri
4. Renaissance

33. Peak higher educationPeak higher education
Academia
experiences
a serious
correction

34. The bubble burstThe bubble burst
http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/

35. Grad programs checkedGrad programs checked

36. Perfect stormPerfect storm
 Demographic decline
 Accelerated prices + sunk
costs
 Low public funding
 Alternatives rising

37. How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?
 Fewer, less crowded
campuses
 Very international student
body
 Low-cost programs ($10K
BA)

38. How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?
 Increased remedial
programs
 College generally seen as
job training

39. How does this impact learning?How does this impact learning?
More alternatives:
 Maker movement expands
 More DIY learning,
unschooling

40.  Vocational tech classes are
widespread in K-12
 Apprenticeships are accepted in
career paths
 Colleges have always been
transnational

41. II:II: Health care nationHealth care nation
Medical
sector
grows into
leading US
industry
 45% of GDP

42. A new economyA new economy
Ageing population

43. A new economyA new economy
 Byzantine finances
 Treatment improvements
 Greater presence in society
 Baumol’s disease

44. How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?
 More programs, more people, more
tech
 Increased feminization of student
body
 Space sharing w/clinics + hospitals

45.  Some took premed-themed
classes in high school
 Medical heroes loom as large as
sports figures
 Many already familiar with
eldercare practices

46. III. Tutor me, SiriIII. Tutor me, Siri
 Tutoring
software
 Commodit
y and
enterprise
versions

47. How it happenedHow it happened
 Continuous developments in
AI, HCI, learning science
 Commercial, governmental,
academic projects
 Open education to draw upon

48. Higher education landscape:
 Two Cultures implementation
divide
 Boom in CS, robotics
departments
 Scholarship battles

49. Higher education landscape:
 Further adjunctification
 F2f undergrad, grad enrollments
drop
 Math Emporium model

50.  Expanded study halls in high
school
 Beloved tutors carried to
college, life
 Value humans for eccentricity,
style

51. IV. RenaissanceIV. Renaissance

57. Gaming
world

58. Gaming as part of mainstreamGaming as part of mainstream
cultureculture
 Median age of gamers shoots past 30
 Industry size comparable to music
 Impacts on hardware, software,
interfaces, other industries
 Large and growing diversity of
platforms, topics, genres, niches,
players

59. Games
serious,
public, and
political
• Oiligarchy, Molle Industries
• Jetset, Persuasive Games
• The Great Shakeout, California
• DimensionM, Tabula Digita

60. Classroom and courses
 Curriculum content
 Delivery mechanism
 Creating games
Peacemaker,
Impact Games
Revolution (via
Jason Mittell)

61. •Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds,
Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005)
•Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies
(Sage, 2008)
•Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third
Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives
(MIT, 2009)
Game studies as academic fieldGame studies as academic field

62. How is gaming used now?How is gaming used now?

63. Use games to impact
society

64. Some impacts on campusesSome impacts on campuses
 Changes in hardware,
software
 Part of undergraduate life
 Learning content, both
informal and formal
 Career paths

65. Interface changesInterface changes
 Gartner: end of the
mouse
 Touch screen (iOS)
 Handhelds (Wii)
 Nothing (Kinect)

66. Higher education landscape:
 Accreditation: drives project-based,
studio-style pedagogy
 Libraries: rare and/or smaller
 Professional development: distance,
DiY
 Faculty multimedia production is the
norm
› Both sides of the API

67.  War on IP rages
 Nostalgia waves for old
media
 Competing storytelling
schools

68.  Most students identified with
one+ game characters in K-12
 Leading game developers are as
well known as movie directors
 Most of their work and school is
gamified

69. How does your life change?How does your life change?
1. Peak Higher
Education
2. Health Care Nation
3. Tutor me, Siri
4. Renaissance

70. EXERCISE 1EXERCISE 1
1. Select one trend
2. Build a world around it
• Think STEEP
• Think campuses
• Imagine your students

71. EXERCISEEXERCISE
1. Pick the most unstable, hard to predict
trend.
2. Describe its polar extreme
possibilities.
3. Pick another trend.
4. Do #2 on it.

72. EXERCISE
Each
trend
one
axis

73. 6. Back to campus
What is your current futuring
capacity?
• Individuals
• Practices
• Local resources

74. 6. Back to campus
What are your external
resources?
• Collaborations
• Online
• Professional organizations

75. How to develop
• Support futures-oriented
people
• Try out one of these methods
• Hold planning/vision sessions
• Share news, fiction

76. How to develop
• Ad hoc or formal group?
• “ “ “ “ process?
• Partner locally
• “ externally

77. Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop
1. Introductions
2. Delphi method
3. Environmental scanning
4. Trend analysis
5. Scenarios
6. Implementation in your organization

78. http://bryanalexander.orghttp://bryanalexander.org
bryan.alexander@gmail.combryan.alexander@gmail.com
http://twitter.com/bryanalexanderhttp://twitter.com/bryanalexander